Russian military doctrine will not improve NATO ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Doctrine ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
The West ◽  
Military Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement ◽  
Operational Art ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Military

Subject Russian military doctrine. Significance The Russian government adopted a new military doctrine on December 26. Everything from military procurement decisions to force structuring flows from this foundational strategy document. However, the military fundamentals are largely unchanged from the 2010 version, despite much tougher language on the threats and risks to Russia and some updates to reflect changes to Russian operational art. As a result, the new doctrine is best seen as a political document, reflecting Moscow's increasingly and openly hostile perspective on the West. Impacts There are no substantive changes to overall pace and direction of military reform due to new doctrine but certain projects may be delayed. The document does affirm Russia's growing commitment to hybrid and information war. The doctrine enshrines the new Kremlin view that Russia faces an continuing campaign by West to limit its authority.

Election dispute belies Togo's deeper stability risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
West African ◽  
The Political ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
The Military ◽  
Democratic Norms

Subject The political outlook in Togo. Significance On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result. Impacts Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources. Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability. A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him. Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.

Russia's Armenia reinforcement may destabilise region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operational Capabilities ◽  
Russian Military

Significance As Russia expands military operations in Syria and escalates the crisis with Turkey, it has also bolstered its forces at its base in Armenia, the sole Russian military facility in the South Caucasus. The expanded Russian force in Armenia not only enhances its operational capabilities, but also endangers an already delicate regional balance of power in the region. It can be seen as a response both to the shooting down of a Russian military warplane by Turkey in November, and to two separate incursions into Armenian airspace by Turkish army helicopters in early October. Impacts Neighbouring Turkey will see the expansion of Russian forces in Armenia as a provocative move, aimed against both Turkey and NATO. Azerbaijan may expand its own operations, amid a wider escalation of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh. By being drawn into supporting Russia's Syrian operations, Armenia's relations with the West become more complicated.

Russian economic stagnation heightens instability risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Military Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
National Welfare ◽  
Zero Growth ◽  
The Military ◽  
Welfare Fund ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Russia's economic outlook. Significance According to Russia's Central Bank, at the end of June, Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves totalled 362 billion dollars. The current recession in Russia is not turning into the dramatic downturn that some had forecast. However, a different concern is being raised by Russian leaders: a fear of stagnation in the longer term. They do not use that term in its usual meaning of zero growth; the concern is rather that Russia will fail to keep pace with the rest of the world and it will grow more slowly than the global economy as a whole. The prospect of a sluggish economy concerns both the leadership and the population. Impacts It will be difficult for Russia to fulfil the military reform programme without lowering other spending as finances remain tight. Public unrest over economic conditions is likely; whether this translates into protests against Putin himself depends on his durability. The Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund will be drawn down to support the budget and domestic investment.

Russian policymakers will await new US president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Russian Foreign Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
The Military ◽  
Offensive Strategies

Subject Russian foreign policy in 2016. Significance Russian foreign policy is driven by an amalgam of realpolitik, nationalism and anti-Western ideology, and consists of both defensive and offensive strategies. The robust, confrontational approach championed by President Vladimir Putin in recent years has produced successes in such areas as the military campaign in Syria, but an undecided outcome in Ukraine and mixed results in other parts of the former Soviet Union. Impacts A NATO summit this July may result in a tougher, more coordinated stance on Russia. Following its official partial withdrawal from Syria, the Russian military will conduct selective attacks. Russia will need careful diplomacy to keep Belarus and Kazakhstan from drifting away as allies.

Al-Qaida core could keep control of Syria’s Idlib

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Leadership ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Military Control ◽  
The Military ◽  
Outreach Initiative

Significance The last major rebel-held area in Syria, Idlib province is under the military control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a salafi-jihadist rebel alliance. Jaysh al-Ahrar, the largest non-al-Qaida faction in HTS, announced on September 13 it was leaving the organisation. This followed the resignation of one of HTS’s top clerics, Abdullah al-Muhaysini, after the leaking of telephone conversations in which the military leadership criticised him harshly. Impacts Renewed unity talks between mainstream rebel factions will encourage another round of pre-emptive attacks by HTS. Likely rejection of HTS’s outreach initiative by the mainstream opposition will empower the hawks within the group. Possible regime operations against HTS would be limited to peripheral strategic positions such as Jisr al-Shughur. US-backed and pro-Damascus forces will seek to avoid clashes around Deir ez-Zour city in their separate offensives against Islamic State. A Russian military presence will deter Turkey from attacking the Syrian Kurds in Afrin and elsewhere.

New Gambian president will re-engage the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
The Military

Significance If Barrow is inaugurated, it will mark the first peaceful transfer of power since the country gained independence. Incumbent Yahya Jammeh, who seized power in a 1994 military coup, was widely expected to claim victory, despite widespread frustration. With the economy stagnant and the unemployment rate among the highest in West Africa, Barrow successfully united much of the political opposition. Jammeh's concession was unexpected given the repression that his security services employed prior to the election. Impacts A new administration will look to draw prominent figures from across The Gambia's ethnic groups. Security will remain taut ahead of the upcoming inauguration and legislative elections scheduled for April. The new government could renew its commitment to the International Criminal Court (ICC). There could be widespread calls for the prosecution of Jammeh, which may provoke unrest within the military and new coup fears.

Pre-poll loss may hurt Thailand’s key anti-junta party

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
National Council ◽  
Considerable Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Significance The Constitutional Court earlier this month banned the Thai Raksa Chart Party, an offshoot of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s Pheu Thai Party. A 500-member House of Representatives, based on mixed-member proportional representation, and a 250-member Senate, hand-picked by the military-led National Council for Peace and Order, will together decide on the next prime minister. Impacts The military will exercise considerable influence over post-election policymaking through the Senate. Foreign direct investment may increase following the installation of a civilian administration. Relations with the West, especially the EU, are likely to improve under a civilian government.

scholarly journals Military reform, militarily-connected firms and auditor choice

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 705-729
Author(s):  
Iman Harymawan
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Military Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Auditor Choice ◽  
Choice Preference ◽  
Big 4 ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Military

Purpose One of the strongest connections in politics in developing countries is through military links. This study aims to examine the auditor choice preference of the militarily-connected firms in Indonesia, an emerging country where there is a strong influence from the military on political decision-making. Design/methodology/approach The analysis used 3,473 firms-year observations listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange spanning from 2003 to 2017 using regression and other statistical tests. Findings The results reveal that firms with a militarily-connected director are less likely to appoint one of the Big 4 auditors. Using the military reform as a natural experiment, the finding shows that militarily-connected firms did not change their auditor choice preference even after the military reform. Interestingly, I find that connected firms are associated with high earnings management. In addition, the different retirement position level and military affiliations of the connected directors generate different outcomes related to the auditor choice decision. Overall, the results indicate that militarily-connected firms were less likely to appoint one of the Big 4 auditors both before and after the military reforms. These results are robust, even after the author controlled for political connections, year fixed effects and industry fixed effects. Research limitations/implications Because of the limitations of the prior literature on military connections, this study is developed based on the assumption that the militarily-connected directors have identical behavior whether they serve in either public or private companies. However, this assumption could be invalid which potentially affects the interpretation of some of the results in this study. Originality/value This paper provides direct evidence of the auditor choice preference of firms with a military connection. The evidence builds on the existing literature on the difference in auditor choice preference between politically and militarily-connected firms.

CIS forces will not enter Afghanistan after ISAF

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
And Training

Significance With the ending of ISAF's mission, a new mission named 'Resolute Support' comes into force, with about 13,000 troops providing support and training to Afghanistan's 350,000 security personnel. However, despite this continuing support, fear continues to rise that 2015 will see a significant resurgence of extremist groups inside Afghanistan, with the prospect of a spill-over of fighting into Central Asia. Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their largest counter-terrorism drills in August 2014, and it is likely that 2015 will see further significant SCO military drills in Central Asia. Impacts Increased security clampdown in Central Asia in 2015 will come at the expense of democratic freedoms. Despite Chinese and Russian military capabilities, the SCO will lack the capacity to replace NATO in Afghanistan. Afghanistan's instability will provide an avenue for renewed limited security cooperation between Russia and the West.

Saudi campaign in Yemen will hinge on local allies

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Port City ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
The West ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Military Operation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Saudi Ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir said that a ten-country coalition was supporting the military operation, code-named 'Storm of Resolve', "to protect and defend the legitimate government" of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Rapid Huthi advances over recent days towards Hadi's seat in the southern port city of Aden prompted him on March 23 to call on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies for military intervention. Impacts Yemen will prove the first major leadership test for potential future Saudi king, Defence Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Even in a worst case scenario, the conflict is highly unlikely to affect Saudi oil installations. Iran's aid to the Huthis is opportunistic, not strategic; it will not risk re-engagement with the West to expand in Yemen. Sectarian tensions could rise in eastern Saudi Arabia.

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