Kosovo's political calm may not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Limited Success ◽  
Tear Gas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Kosovo's temporary political truce. Significance The political crisis has calmed following nine months of steadily escalating unrest, marked by violent street demonstrations and the use of tear-gas in parliament. However, the underlying issues that provoked the unrest -- devolution to Kosovo's various ethnic Serb enclaves and a border treaty that cedes 2,500 hectares of disputed land to Montenegro -- are far from resolved. Accordingly, there is a high risk of a return to unrest in the near future. Impacts Failure to agree a common border with Montenegro will complicate bilateral relations at a time of growing regional instability. Unilateral devolution of power to Serb-majority municipalities risks creating a disputed breach in Kosovo's territorial integrity. Under EU pressure, the government will try to resolve the two key political issues, but with only limited success. Resumed violence will have damaging consequences for the economy, implementing the Brussels Agreement and Kosovo's passage towards the EU.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Albanian crisis will hold off reform needed for EU

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Abroad ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Political Battle

Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.

Burundi's ruling party hardliners to consolidate power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
National Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Party Congress ◽  
The Eu

Significance The assassination is the latest in a series of violent incidents linked to an ongoing political crisis in the country. Results from a recent party congress of the ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy - Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) suggest that constitutional term limits could be lifted to allow for President Pierre Nkurunziza to retain office -- a key factor driving the current political tensions. Impacts An unresolved political crisis could damage relations with the EU as it pushes for an East Africa trade deal. Prevailing hardliners within the CNDD-FDD may exacerbate historical and ethnic divisions. The political crisis may reduce trading and worsening foreign currency shortages.

Popular votes and Brexit will shape EU-Swiss relations

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Market Access ◽  
Mutual Recognition ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Mutual Recognition Agreement ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-Swiss bilateral relations. Significance The relationship between Switzerland and the EU is functional but difficult. Despite some progress on the Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) that secures market access for a range of products, a breakthrough is still needed on the most important issue, the institutional framework for sectoral agreements. Negotiations have slowed and the Swiss government faces difficult decisions on the right timing and strategy. Impacts The Swiss government’s decision to resume discussions on new 'cohesion payments' to the EU is likely to create goodwill in Brussels. In the short term, Switzerland's economy and trade are unlikely to suffer from the stalemate in the Swiss-EU political relationship. With Ignazio Cassis as foreign minister, the government is likely to become more sceptical of the EU.

EU bid tangle may hamper Iceland capital controls exit

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Controls ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Membership Application ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Implications of the Icelandic government's EU missteps for its planned exit from capital controls. Significance The government has sought to make more definite the halt to Iceland's EU accession process, without seeking either parliamentary or popular endorsement of its formal withdrawal of the membership application. It has succeeded in damaging its domestic standing, while still leaving Iceland's EU status unclear. It has also made the political environment more volatile, when stability is needed to facilitate the government's planned exit from the capital controls imposed in the 2008 crisis. Impacts The EU is still seeking clarity on whether Iceland is formally withdrawing its membership application. Strains over the handling of the exit from capital controls could exacerbate other differences within the government. The government's side-stepping of parliament has triggered a broader debate on executive-legislative relations which will continue.

Delayed Congolese election will prompt a crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
The Government

Significance Crackdowns against the political opposition have increased as the government tries to stifle political dissent. The constitution mandates presidential and national assembly elections by late November, but the incumbent, President Joseph Kabila, appears unwilling to leave office despite reaching his term limit. Impacts Tshisekedi's return will raise the stakes in the country's political crisis. Instability or political violence risks shattering DRC's fragile economic recovery. The UN could expand the mandate of its mission in the DRC depending on the outcome of the political process.

Economic focus aids Eritrean diplomatic rehabilitation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
European Development Fund ◽  
Development Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
European Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
Italian Coast ◽  
The Eu

Subject Eritrea's diplomatic re-engagement. Significance Eritrea and the EU this month are expected to sign a new aid package under the 11th European Development Fund (EDF). The EU's push to take a more comprehensive approach to an exodus of migrants from Eritrea comes amid a spike in migrant deaths in the Mediterranean during April. For its part, Asmara's stance has evolved significantly since it was criticised for a slow and callous response to the death of more than 300 Eritreans off the Italian coast in 2013. The government is working to take advantage of EU momentum to divert the focus away from political issues and towards economic factors. Impacts EU relations may improve, but Eritrea will continue facing difficulties in the UN and with the United States. Ethiopia is not threatened militarily by Eritrea but prefers Asmara to remain isolated, and will work against lifting UN sanctions. Recent diplomatic visits with Saudi Arabia and Egypt suggest that Eritrea may be able to leverage its proximity to insecurity in Yemen.

IMF funding delay would hit Bosnian Serbs more

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
The Past ◽  
Accession Process ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Subject Blockages holding up Bosnia's EU accession process and new IMF arrangement. Significance International officials have been discussing for almost a year with Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) politicians their country's EU accession process and an IMF arrangement. However, the process has bogged down amid personal animosities and mistrust. The impasse not only threatens BiH's EU path but also frustrates efforts in the past year by state and entity governments to implement unpopular reforms and meet demanding conditions for an IMF extended fund facility (EFF). Impacts The political crisis has entered a new, more radical phase that could threaten stability and even security before October local elections. Parallel census results in the two entities will deepen divisions and compromise BiH's already-blocked path to the EU. The UK government's absorption with leaving the EU will reduce its mediating role in Bosnia.

Libyan economy will be slow to recover

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Business Opportunities ◽  
The Government ◽  
Energy Companies

Subject The prospects for the Libyan economy. Significance Prior to 2011, Libya's oil and gas wealth and its proximity to Europe drew major energy companies and provided large business opportunities in other sectors. The conflict in 2011 and collapse of the government led many foreign companies to freeze their activities in the country. The political crisis and conflict since 2014 have compounded business and economic difficulties, with the rival political blocs also competing for control of public finances and national institutions and companies. Impacts Demand for migrant workers in Libya will remain steady. Infrastructure spending is unlikely to return to pre-2011 levels before 2017. Growth and investment will be concentrated in the private sector.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document