Commodity price rises could boost Peru growth outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mining Industry ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Moderate Improvement ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Mining Projects

Significance The Peruvian economy appears to be benefiting not just from increased mining production but also from a moderate improvement in commodity prices. If sustained, these will feed into improved growth prospects this year and next. Domestic demand, however, is in the doldrums. Impacts The Peruvian economy is becoming ever more dependent on the mining industry. Highly capitalised, this has a very limited direct impact on employment. Difficulties in achieving a 'social licence' will continue to pose problems for new mining projects.

Risk assessment of mining projects in Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Teye Amoatey ◽  
Samuel Famiyeh ◽  
Peter Andoh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Culture ◽  
Mining Project ◽  
Mining Projects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the critical risk factors affecting mining projects in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach A purposive sampling approach was used in selecting the respondents for the study. These were practitioners working on mining projects in Ghana. Findings The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical mining project risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were unstable commodity prices, inflation/exchange rate, land degradation, high cost of living and government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were identified. Research limitations/implications This paper is limited to data collected from practitioners working on mining projects. Due to geographic and logistical constraints, the study did not include the perception of local communities in quantifying the risk factors. Practical implications This paper has documented the critical risk factor affecting the mining industry in Ghana. Though the identified risk types are also prevalent in other sectors of the construction industry, the key findings of this paper emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the mining sector. From an academic research perspective, the paper contributes to a conceptual risk assessment framework. Originality/value The information gathered through this research can be utilized in identifying and understanding risks during the early stages of mining project implementation.

Global growth and market prospects may improve in 2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Correlation between oil prices, equity markets and global growth. Significance Weak global growth and volatile equity markets in early 2016 illustrate how the real economy and distressed investors are struggling with rapid changes in such key parameters as the new energy and commodity price regime. This is because the 'losers' have to react quickly, plunging economies into recession before the 'gainers' generate any positive effects. These asymmetries, along with disappointing data, are spooking stock markets into a broad-based sell-off. After a nearly 10% fall in global equities between end-December and mid-February wiped as much as 6-7 trillion dollars off wealth, markets have rallied, especially in the United States, where key indices have recouped losses to trade at levels last seen at end-2015. Impacts A recovery in global growth prospects could emerge by mid-2016, stabilising commodity prices and underpinning gains in equity markets. Distressed sales of assets should abate and have less influence on markets. Easing fears over China will help markets rebound after the panic attack in early 2016. The consumer benefits of low energy and food costs have disappointed, but there could be higher spending throughout 2016.

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on international commodity prices

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaofen Tan ◽  
Yongjiao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Raw Materials ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low Uncertainty

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on a large sample of 19 commodity markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors rely on Jurado et al.’s (2015) measure of macroeconomic uncertainty based on a wide range of monthly macroeconomic and financial indicators and estimate a threshold VAR model to assess whether the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on commodity prices differs under the high- or low-uncertainty state. Findings The findings show that positive macroeconomic uncertainty shocks affect commodity prices returns negatively on average and the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty is generally higher in high-uncertainty states compared with low-uncertainty states. Besides, although the safe-haven role of precious metals is confirmed, energy and industrial markets are more sensitive to short-run and long-run macroeconomic uncertainty, respectively. Research limitations/implications The findings in this study suggest that commodity prices reflect not only the level of economic fundamental but also the volatility of economic fundamental. Originality/value This study empirically analyzes and verifies the influence of macroeconomic uncertainty not only on oil prices but also on four groups of 19 raw materials. As for the methodological issues, the authors rely on a structural threshold vector autoregressive specification for modeling commodity price returns to account for potentially different effects depending on the macroeconomic uncertainty states.

Fiscal deficits raise debt concerns in Latin America

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
South American ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Economic Commission ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject The deteriorating fiscal position. Significance According to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), government deficits in most South American countries and Mexico widened in 2015 for the third consecutive year, in a context of slower economic growth and lower commodity prices. Barring Brazil, the increase was generally small but government borrowing, rising for several years, is increasingly limiting administrations' room for fiscal manoeuvre. Impacts Government borrowing is rising -- as are borrowing costs. Declining revenues may force unpopular spending cuts, worsening growth prospects. Caribbean countries in particular face unsustainable debt-servicing burdens that leave little for social and investment spending.

Prospects for emerging economies to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2016. Significance Despite political risks causing bouts of volatility in countries such as Brazil and Turkey, emerging market (EM) growth prospects have improved moderately and asset prices have rebounded after the turbulence of early 2016. More stability in exchange rates has helped, with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) holding off raising rates. The rebound in commodity prices has been supportive, too, together with receding concerns about China's slowdown. Some countries have also eased fiscal policy to reduce social tensions risks.

Philippine mining minister faces president pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mining Industry ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Open Pit ◽  
Open Pit Mining ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Projects

Significance On the agenda is the issue of legislation on open-pit mining and the stopping of the export of unprocessed ores. This follows Cimatu’s confirmation in post by the Commission on Appointments on October 4. Previously acting secretary, Cimatu replaced the controversial Regina Lopez, who was not confirmed as environment secretary earlier this year. The Philippine mining industry was wary of Lopez’s pro-environment, anti-mining policies, and now wants to see what Cimatu’s plans are. Impacts Under Cimatu, mining firms could gain more opportunities to engage with policymakers. Environmental and anti-mining groups will see Cimatu’s appointment as a betrayal; protests are possible at mining projects. Peace in Mindanao would unlock an estimated 1 trillion dollars in untapped mineral resources.

scholarly journals Sensitivity analysis as a decision-making tool for the implementation of an investment project in mining industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-303
Author(s):  
Elena A. Pozdnyakova ◽  
◽  
Liudmila A. Ramenskaya ◽  
Dmitrii S. Voronov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Technical Equipment ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis Method ◽  
Mining Projects

Introduction. Russian mining companies need to implement large-scale investment projects due to a variety of internal and external reasons. Projects are aimed at the development of new deposits, technical equipment and the modernization of existing ones. To make substantiated management decisions, a toolkit for analyzing the risks of investment projects is required. Theoretical analysis. The section contains the need to apply quantitative methods for assessing investment risks based on cash flow modeling. We have analyzed the possibility of the use of sensitivity analysis techniques, real options and Monte Carlo methods for the quantitative assessment of the mining industry investment projects risks. The result includes a justification of the feasibility of applying the sensitivity analysis method at the early stages of an investment project. Empirical analysis. The sensitivity analysis tested metrics such as production volumes, commodity prices, capital and operating costs on two mining projects. It was found out that the projects under consideration are the most sensitive to changes in the price of commercial products. Results. Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for risk analysis of investment projects. The application of this method to an investment project in the mining industry should be carried out taking into account the industry specifics.

China may yet revive Western economies

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The World ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Stimulus Package

Subject China's economic growth prospects. Significance After the 2008 global financial crisis, China's resilience thanks to Beijing's large and rapid stimulus package was credited with making China the engine of growth for the world economy. Today, China is seen as the opposite, with diverse economic ills across the world routinely blamed on China's slowdown. Impacts Investment in heavy industry will not rebound, but there is still ample scope for investment in construction related to urbanisation. Consumption will make the largest contribution to economic growth. The rate of capital accumulation will remain high for some years, boosting labour productivity further. With wages still rising, inflation in China will pick up once commodity prices stop falling. Inflation in China will feed into inflation in the West, while a more affluent China demands more goods and services.

New measures will not boost formal-sector jobs in Peru

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Formal Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government

Significance The pandemic appears to have further increased the size of Peru’s large informal sector, in which productivity and remuneration are both low. Earlier economic growth did not feed through into a fall in informality. Impacts The measures announced will put further pressure on the government to raise revenue. Increased taxation is likely to fall on the business sector, including the mining industry. Growth will be generated more by increased external than domestic demand. Vaccination rates are set to speed up.

How do financially vulnerable farms finance debt in periods of falling prices?

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 412-424 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Prager ◽  
Christopher B. Burns ◽  
Noah J. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Seemingly Unrelated Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Farm Debt ◽  
Interest Payments

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of falling commodity prices on farm debt usage of corn and soybean farms, and how this debt usage differs based on the financial leverage of the farm. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data on farms surveyed at least twice in the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) from 1996 to 2015, this paper uses a difference-in-differences approach to measure the effect of low commodity price shocks on financially vulnerable farms. To account for the correlation in the error structure between the three dependent variables (real estate debt, non-real estate debt, and interest payments) we use a seemingly unrelated regression approach. Findings Following a commodity price shock, financially vulnerable farms (debt-to-asset ratio greater than 40 percent) were found to increase their non-real estate debt when compared with non-financially vulnerable farms. Off-farm business income was found to help farms reduce real estate debt and interest payments in the face of these shocks. Research limitations/implications Data consist of corn and soybean farms surveyed more than once in the ARMS from 1996 to 2015 and are not representative of all US farms, but have similar characteristics to US commercial farms. Social implications The results indicate that financially vulnerable commercial crop farms respond to lower prices by taking on non-real estate debt, increasing financial stress. Well-targeted federal programs could prevent further financial stress for this group. Originality/value This is the first paper to use unbalanced panel data from ARMS to examine how farm debt use responds to commodity prices. This paper can inform policymakers about the financial risks to farms resulting from the current low-price environment.

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