Corruption scandal claims new victims in Peru

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
Growth Prospects

Significance The economic and political impacts from the Odebrecht bribery scandal are beginning to make themselves felt. As well as hitting President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s popularity rating, the scandal has further reinforced public distrust in the country’s ruling elites. It is also negatively affecting this year’s growth prospects. Impacts Odebrecht and other Brazilian construction companies will find themselves excluded in Peru, opening opportunities for others. The bribery upset will lead to a slowdown in infrastructure investment in the short-to-medium term. There may have to be a major shake-up in the workings of agencies that oversee public investment bidding.

Geothermal drives Kenya power sector boost

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Generation ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Power Sector ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Grid Systems ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Domestic Power

Subject Kenya power outlook. Significance The government's geothermal generation programme is driving a structural change in the power sector. Plans are for electricity generation to roughly double to 3,000 megawatts (MW) over the next few years, with hydroelectricity losing its dominant role. Kenya's medium-term economic growth prospects turn on the success of the government's rising spending on infrastructure investment in the energy and transport sectors. Impacts Focus on industry sources (diesal, gas, coal) obscures the dominant role of bio-energy (firewood, charcoal) in the energy mix. Increasing the role for natural gas in domestic power sectors will be pushed by regional governments with new offshore finds. Policymakers will continue to advocate the efficacy of mini grid or off-grid systems to augment the limited reach of 'national' grids.

scholarly journals Government public infrastructure investment and economic performance in Spain (1980-2016)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Perez-Montiel ◽  
Carles Manera
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Communities ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Acyclic Graphs ◽  
Multiplier Effects

Purpose The authors estimate the multiplier effect of government public infrastructure investment in Spain. This paper aims to use annual data of the 17 Spanish autonomous communities for the 1980–2016 period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use dynamic acyclic graphs and the heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (P-SVAR) method of Pedroni (2013). This method is robust to cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence, which are present in the data. Findings The findings suggest that an increase in the level of government public infrastructure investment generates a positive and persistent effect on the level of output. Five years after the fiscal expansion, the multiplier effects of government public infrastructure investment reach values above one. This confirms that government public infrastructure investment expansions have Keynesian effects. The authors also find that the multiplier effects differ between autonomous communities with above-average and below-average GDP per capita. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no research uses dynamic acyclic graphs and heterogeneous P-SVAR techniques to estimate fiscal multipliers of government public investment in Spain by using subnational data.

Does public investment crowd-out private investment in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanmugam Muthu
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to estimate the long run relationship between public and private investment using annual data from 1971-1972 to 2009-2010. Findings Based on the empirical findings, it is observed that aggregate public investment has a positive effect on private investment both in the long run and the short run. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, no significant impact of public infrastructure investment on private investments is found in the long run, while non-infrastructure investment has a positive impact on private investment in the short run. Among the various categories of infrastructure sector, a positive and significant impact in the case of electricity, gas and water supply is observed. Similarly, the result indicates that public investment in machinery and equipment and construction have substantially influenced the private sector machinery and equipment in the long run and the short run. In the case of the role of macroeconomic uncertainty, the results find a negative and significant impact on private investment and the impact is higher in the short run than in the long run. Originality/value The present study extends the literature in three important ways: First, the study attempts to capture heterogeneity of public investment as well as disaggregate effects of two different categories of public infrastructure on private investment. The extent to which two different types of public assets impact the private investment in machinery and equipment investment is also examined. Second, ARDL model is used to examine the long-run relationship between public and private investment. Third, the study incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty into the empirical analysis to examine the role of macroeconomic volatility in determining private investment decision.

Public infrastructure investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin America: incompatible goals?

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Carranza ◽  
Christian Daude ◽  
Angel Melguizo
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Space

Purpose – This paper aims to understand the relationship in developing countries between fiscal consolidation and public investment – a flexible part of the budget that is easier to cut during consolidation effort, but with potentially negative growth effects. Analyzing in detail the case of Peru, the paper explores alternative fiscal rules and frameworks that might help create fiscal space for infrastructure investment. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses trends in public and total infrastructure investment in six large Latin American economies, in the light of fiscal developments since the early 1980s. In particular, the paper explores the association between fiscal consolidations (improvements in the structural fiscal balance) and public infrastructure investment rates. In the second part, the paper analyzes recent changes in the fiscal framework of Peru and shows how they were conductive in creating additional fiscal space. Findings – The authors argue that post-crisis fiscal frameworks, notably fiscal rules that are increasingly popular in the region, should not only consolidate the recent progress towards debt sustainability, but also create the fiscal space to close these infrastructure gaps. These points are illustrated in a detailed account of recent developments in the fiscal framework and public investment in the Peruvian case. Originality/value – The paper contributes new evidence to the literature on fiscal consolidation and the composition of government expenditures. While the literature based on evidence from the 1990s has argued that fiscal consolidation plans in Latin America have almost always led to a significant reduction in public infrastructure investment, the paper finds less clear cut evidence when extending the analysis backwards (1980s) and forwards (2000s). The example of the case of Peru is used to explore fiscal institutions and rules that might be useful for other developing countries that face important infrastructure gaps.

Infrastructure spending may pick up in Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Economic Forecast ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscapes

Subject The expected rebound from declining infrastructure investment in Central Europe in 2016-17. Significance In its latest Economic Forecast, the European Commission expects a short-lived decline in public investment in three Central European (CE) countries. This is due to a 'one-off effect', as absorption rates for EU structural and cohesion funds dip across the region, with the closure of the 2007-13 programme period. This will weigh on headline GDP, with the Commission forecasting relatively low 2016 growth rates of 2.1% for Hungary, 2.3% for the Czech Republic and 3.5% for Poland. Impacts Solid growth rates in CE will attract private investment to infrastructure projects, particularly once GDP expands faster in 2017. Infrastructure investment will focus on such traditional sectors as transport and industry rather than financial services in 2016-17. Low borrowing costs and private companies' strong demand for short- and long-term loans will facilitate an upturn in projects in 2017. Given the diverse fiscal and political landscapes across CE, divergence in deals and mixed funding schemes are expected after 2016. CE governments may introduce lending schemes designed to shield new infrastructure projects from financial volatility.

Vietnam eyes PPPs to plug infrastructure gap

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Infrastructural Development ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
New Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Asean Economic Community

Subject The emerging infrastructure investment framework in Vietnam. Significance Vietnamese infrastructure lags some regional competitors; Hanoi estimates that investing 500 billion dollars could resolve this, but needs 300 billion of this to come from public-private partnerships (PPP). Following problems with Vietnam's PPP regulatory framework, a new framework was introduced in April and a new public investment law in January, among other measures seeking to attract private capital into national infrastructure. Such measures are timely: the ASEAN Economic Community is coming in late 2015, while Vietnam signed a free trade deal on May 29 with the Eurasian Economic Union; capitalising on both requires Vietnamese infrastructural development. Impacts The government may need to delay some projects while private capital comes online. As government and industry adapt to the new infrastructure investment framework, updates to planning instructions may be needed. A concerted anti-corruption campaign would support efficiency drives in infrastructural development, but progress will be slow.

Madagascar's Rajoelina will look to bolster mandate

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Power Utility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Future Growth

Significance President Andry Rajoelina's new political platform, Isika rehetra miaraka amin'i Andry Rajoelina (IRD), is fielding candidates across all 119 districts, while presidential runner-up Marc Ravalomanana has 109 candidates running under his Tiako I Madagasikara (TIM) party. The bulk of the candidates, 515 in total, are running as independents. Impacts A failure by Rajoelina to pass a law on the recovery of illicit assets could strain international relations. A large independent contingent in parliament would make it difficult for Rajoelina to secure a stable majority. Reforming water and power utility Jirama over the short-to-medium term could have a major bearing on future growth prospects.

Brazil infrastructure spending will face obstacles

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Daily Life ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Export Competitiveness

Significance Brazilian infrastructure requires urgent investment. Fiscal constraints are strengthening the government’s inclination towards privatisation and concession plans. As part of the Investment Partnerships Programme (PPI), auctions regarding operation and administration of airports, ports and railways in the country have attracted foreign investors and exceeded the government’s initial targets. Impacts Sluggish infrastructure investment will affect daily life in large cities and hinder long-term export competitiveness. Political turbulence may undermine foreign investors’ interest in Brazil. New rounds of infrastructure auctions will partially offset low public investment.

Ivorian fiscal consolidation plans face multiple risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Growth Spurt ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiple Risks ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Subject Ivory Coast economic update. Significance The post-civil war growth spurt is expected to taper to around 7% per annum over the medium-term, from an average of 9% during 2012-16. While this partly reflects a gradual slowdown in productivity, it also underscores the influence of public investment on Ivory Coast's growth. With public investment expected to decline, the most likely source of near-term growth is foreign direct investment (FDI), which picked up last year, albeit from a low base. Impacts Government revenues may decline as petrol taxes are reduced to absorb the impact on pump prices of a recent spike in oil prices. Ivory Coast-Ghana proposals on synchronising cocoa production will likely be overshadowed by smuggling and a lack of political will. Apart from Niger, all countries in WAEMU will meet the bloc's fiscal targets on time.

New measures will provide temporary relief for Greece

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Temporary Relief ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The new forecast is based on strong results in the second quarter, better-than-expected tourism revenues over the summer months and the approval of the Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan by the European Commission in July. Mitsotakis also announced several new measures, including tax cuts to stimulate spending. Impacts High unemployment (14.2% of the labour force) and structural labour market weaknesses will constrain growth. Structural reforms lost momentum during the pandemic, dampening medium-term economic growth prospects. Public opposition to vaccination might necessitate new movement restrictions by year-end, inhibiting growth. Availability of a EUR30bn liquidity buffer will support sovereign ratings and investor interest in the short term. Short- and medium-term public debt refinancing risks remain low as 75% of debt stock is held by the official sector.

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