Cameroon's government will resist anglophone demands

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civic Leaders ◽  
Bird Flu ◽  
Northern Cameroon ◽  
Southwest Region ◽  
The Government ◽  
Northwest Region

Significance For over a month, the government has imposed an internet shutdown in the largely anglophone regions of Northwest and Southwest Cameroon. This stoppage followed a government clampdown on growing protests and unrest over the discrimination against anglophone Cameroonians by President Paul Biya's administration. What started off as a strike by lawyers in Northwest region last October has now turned into a full blown political crisis. Impacts An extended internet shutdown could devastate the tehnology sector in the Southwest region. The government’s unwillingness to cede autonomy to the Northwest and Southwest makes an extended crisis likely. The potential conviction of three civic leaders on trial for terrorism charges could spark widespread riots. The government will struggle to achieve a projected growth rate of 4.2% for 2017. A bird flu outbreak in northern Cameroon could hamper agricultural prospects.

Burundi regime survival eclipses international status

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Constitutional Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regime Survival ◽  
The Government ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
International Status

Significance The decision was the latest move by the government to spurn international involvement in its political crisis. Relations between Burundi and the ICC have been deteriorating since the ICC chief prosecutor announced in April an investigation into political violence that has engulfed the country since President Pierre Nkurunziza's controversial decision to seek a third term in office. Impacts Aid suspensions or sanctions could raise the price of isolation, but implementation will require coordination, an uncertain proposition. The president and his supporters will move toward consolidating power, including through constitutional change. Burundi may withdraw its contingent of troops from the AU Mission in Somalia. Renewed insecurity would drive further forced migration above the hundreds of thousands already displaced.

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sudanese Refugees

Significance South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access. Impacts Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day. Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors. Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Slovakia may take measures to maintain growth rate

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Police Chief ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Fresh Start ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Tomas Drucker resigned as interior minister on April 16, under pressure to dismiss a police chief targeted by protesters dissatisfied with the investigation into the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his girlfriend in February. Sakova’s appointment is unlikely to demands for a fresh start at the ministry, where she has served for ten years. Impacts With an expected rise in auto capacity and consistently strong domestic demand, growth is forecast to average around 4% in 2018-19. Slovakia’s economy will thus become more balanced, between domestic demand and exports, but FDI inflows have yet to recover. The government will face pressure domestically and from the EU over the introduction of new anti-corruption and public-procurement measures.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Rising oil prices will bolster Ecuador’s Moreno

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Environmental Discourse ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Yasuni National Park ◽  
Fiscal Conditions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues

Significance Higher oil prices have eased pressures on Ecuador’s trade balance and public finances, helping President Lenin Moreno as he attempts to ameliorate the political crisis that has gripped his government since his inauguration in May. However, the oil sector faces challenges including tight fiscal conditions, production cuts and widespread corruption. Impacts Higher oil prices will reassure international investors that the government will be able to honour its rising debt obligations. Moreno is likely to secure referendum backing for his plans to increase the protection of the Yasuni National Park. Moreno will find it difficult to reconcile his environmental discourse with his need to bring in fresh oil revenues over the longer term.

Maduro risks mounting militarisation in Venezuela

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
American States ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
The Government

Significance It is as yet unclear whether the police officer in question acted alone, although he apparently once worked for former Interior and Justice Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres, who, the government claims, is linked to the CIA and whose arrest has reportedly been ordered. The death toll in ongoing anti-government protests continues to rise, now totalling an estimated 75 since April. The failure of the Organization of American States (OAS) to agree a resolution on Venezuela at its General Assembly has emboldened Caracas while demonstrating the inability of the regional body to determine a course of action that can help to resolve the country’s political crisis. Impacts Violence will continue as the opposition relies on protests to weaken the government and erode participation in the assembly elections. Each protest-related death is serving to entrench a paralysing cycle of demonstration and repression. As the OAS flounders, the United States will likely move unilaterally to impose new sanctions on Venezuelan officials. Changes to military figures in the government will deepen political rifts between different elements and factions in the security sector. Yesterday's attack suggests that, in the event of a serious military intervention, this would be violent and bloody.

Athens braces for battle on school reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
School Reform ◽  
International Student ◽  
Student Assessment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Student Assessment ◽  
Major Reform ◽  
The Government

Significance Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Education Minister Niki Kerameus announced the reform on June 28. It includes hiring 11,700 elementary and high-school teachers on tenured job contracts. Since the performance of Greece’s school system ranks among the lowest on Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) indicators, a major reform has been long overdue. Impacts Given the high number of teachers to be hired, the government may have underestimated the financial cost of school reform. The state budget will simultaneously require funds for the management of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The reform may open a new battle front for the government this autumn, uniting anti-government unions and opposition parties. A general election is not in sight, but a political crisis could upset the stability being sought to attract much-needed private investment.

Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

Vested interests may block urgent tax reform in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Government

Significance It also looked at government-proposed amendments to another law aiming to reduce the scope for tax evasion in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone. Recent developments including the pandemic, an April political crisis between King Abdullah and his half-brother Prince Hamzah and now the Gaza conflict have highlighted popular dissatisfaction driven by economic grievances. Impacts Tourism should start to recover in late 2021, but revenue is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 at the earliest. Forecast economic growth of 2-3% over the next four years leaves little scope for improvement in living standards. Without a strong economic recovery, the government will struggle to bring down an unemployment rate that has reached 24%.

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