Germany’s trade surplus benefits the euro-area

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Eu

Subject Germany’s trade surplus. Significance Germany runs a large trade surplus with other euro-area countries and the rest of the world. Critics have argued that wages in Germany have not increased enough in recent years and that the country should boost domestic demand. However, trade and wage developments with other euro-area countries show that such criticism is largely misguided. Impacts Germany’s offshoring of production processes helps boost GDP growth in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Creating a more innovation-friendly environment and investing in R&D would lift the long-term growth potential of the euro-area. Completing the digital single market could contribute to more innovation across the EU.

Finland's reforms may end period of stagnation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pension Age ◽  
The Eu

Subject Finland's economy. Significance The Finnish economy contracted from 2012 to 2014 and grew by only 0.5% last year. It has been facing both structural and cyclical headwinds and since 2010 three different governments have been unable to jump-start it. However, the current one-year-old Finnish government has staked much of its political capital on various reforms which are expected to lead to a resumption of growth and a slower increase in public debt. Impacts Due to demographic trends, Finland's long-term growth potential is estimated to be below 2%. Prolonged economic stagnation in the EU and Russia is likely to depress export and GDP growth. The pension age in Finland will increase automatically as life expectancy rises, which may be a model for other European countries.

Germany’s economic recovery may remain anaemic

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Effect

Significance Germany, like its euro-area partners, has struggled to achieve anything resembling a strong recovery from the 2008-09 financial crisis. Forecasts for 2017 have been revised downwards and there are few signs -- at either the macroeconomic or macropolitical level -- that European stagnation will dissipate. Impacts The weak euro will benefit Germany’s exporting industries. Frankfurt could attract some banks looking to leave London after Brexit. Migration has increased Germany’s domestic demand potential and could have a net positive effect on economic activity in the long term. Europe’s lack of dynamism may weaken the growth potential of other regions.

The international strength of the euro will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
Geopolitical Risks ◽  
The Eu

Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.

EU bonds will rival German Bunds as a safe asset

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Eu

Significance This could create an alternative benchmark safe-haven asset to rival German Bunds within the region. As part of its issuance plans, the EU intends to issue at least EUR50bn in green bonds annually, which is likely to make it the world’s largest issuer of these bonds. Impacts The increased importance of EU bonds over time will help to support the euro's value and could eventually put pressure on the dollar. The EU is leading the world in green bond issuance, but the risk of spurious environmental claims (‘greenwashing’) must be managed. The creation of new EU bonds will help reduce the funding costs of riskier euro-area members such as Italy.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Brexit’s long-term impact on Ireland will be modest

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Industry ◽  
Multinational Companies ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Land Bridge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

Significance The agri-food industry will be particularly hurt by new customs and regulatory checks, as will pharmaceuticals and chemicals, electric and electronic machinery, and wholesale and retail. Ireland’s trade with the EU will also be disrupted because of Ireland’s extensive use of the UK land-bridge for international trade. Impacts Brexit will worsen regional inequality in Ireland, as most of the worst-affected industries are located outside the Dublin area. Irish consumers and UK exporters stand to lose, as the United Kingdom ran a large trade surplus with Ireland before Brexit. A main threat to Irish economic growth would be if large multinational companies decided to leave Ireland. Ireland could experience an influx of low-skilled EU labour migrants following UK plans to make this kind of immigration more difficult.

Spain could become more active in foreign relations

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Restrictive Trade ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Spain’s foreign policy. Significance Since centre-right Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s coming to power in 2011, foreign relations have played a secondary role in Spanish politics. The government has focused on strengthening its economic position within the EU, generally supporting Germany’s views. Its political and economic influence in other parts of the world such as Latin America has diminished significantly. Impacts Spain’s favourable economic prospects and high GDP growth rates may help the country improve its position within the EU. Passing the 2017 budget -- with the help of smaller parties -- later this year will boost the minority government’s credibility. Rajoy is benefiting from the Socialist Party’s internal divisions. The Ibero-American summits could become more relevant if Trump imposes more restrictive trade policies.

Germany may raise spending to reduce imbalances

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Balanced Budget ◽  
German Investment ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Do So

Subject Germany’s chronic trade surplus. Significance Germany’s trade surplus rose to 14.7% of GDP in May, Eurostat estimates released on July 14 show -- by far the highest in the EU. Reducing the negative effects of this and related imbalances poses a challenge for the governance of both the euro-area and the global political economy. Impacts Increased German investment would demonstrate goodwill and help revive the French-German axis. Refusal to address the issue could damage Germany’s credibility in the EU and worldwide. Despite some spending increases, a balanced budget may remain a priority -- especially for a CDU-led government. Germany runs a surplus on both its US goods and services trade; the only major economy to do so -- leaving it vulnerable to protectionism.

India’s vaccine diplomacy brings money and influence

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
The World

Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.

scholarly journals Competitiveness analysis of Czech agrarian foreign trade in the context of world agrarian market and agrarian trade of EU-27 countries

2010 ◽  
Vol 58 (6) ◽  
pp. 503-514
Author(s):  
Miroslav Svatoš ◽  
Luboš Smutka
Keyword(s):  
World Market ◽  
View Point ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Bcg Matrix ◽  
The World ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Two Stages ◽  
Balassa Index ◽  
The Eu

This paper analyses the commodity structure of Czech (CR) agrarian trade in relation to the EU countries. An emphasis is put on comparative advantages of particular aggregations from the view-point of their application on the EU internal market. This analysis is based on an evaluation of comparative advantages by means of a modified Balassa index. It is studied in two stages, for the internal EU market and the world market. The analysis results are then shown in a graph. Subsequently, the authors implement an idea arising from a BCG matrix on the results of the graphic presentation. The aim is to identify those aggregations (SITC, rev. 3) which are or have a potential to be a pillar of agri-business (ie, the “cash cows” and “stars”), and vice versa to show the aggregation which are non-prospective in the long term or problematic (ie, the “dogs” and “problem children”). As start are identified as those aggregations which are characterised by the highest growth rate of comparative advantage value. From the analysis results, changes are apparent if we compare the CR trade commodity structure in relation to the EU countries. Findings also concern the development of comparative advantages and following CR specialisation on trade with certain aggregations.

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