Economic recovery may prove vulnerable in Uruguay

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Grade

Significance President Tabare Vazquez’s government will face a congressional debate over the 2018-20 budget marked by the high fiscal deficit. Although ratings agencies are showing confidence by renewing Uruguay’s investment grade rating, this will only be maintained if an austere budget is approved -- at a time when the government has lost its lower house majority. Impacts The government faces unsatisfied demands from various sectors which cannot readily be addressed without increased investment and spending. This in turn would undermine the fiscal position, which has been improved by an adjustment that still did not resolve underlying issues. Some improvement in growth will give the government a degree of breathing space.

Military moves will not offset Uruguay economic gloom

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Crisis ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Military Establishment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Rights Issue ◽  
The Military

Subject Military moves and economic gloom. Significance The government has faced a political crisis within the military establishment, connected to an honour tribunal related to crimes committed during the 1973-85 dictatorship. President Tabare Vazquez was forced to dismiss seven army generals in the course of a month. The issue coincided with troubling economic data and deteriorating public accounts that represent a threat for Uruguay’s investment-grade rating, at a time when the governing Frente Amplio (FA) appears to be on the back foot in advance of the October general elections. Impacts The human rights issue united the FA but will have limited electoral traction amid more immediate economic concerns. The fiscal deficit will not allow for stimulus spending. An opposition alliance looks likely to be able to unseat the FA in October, at the very least taking its congressional majority.

Argentine budget projections will prove optimistic

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Public ◽  
Primary Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
Interest Payments ◽  
Public Revenues

Subject The 2018 Argentine budget. Significance The Economy Ministry sent the draft 2018 budget to Congress on September 15. The budget indicates no major changes in fiscal policy; the primary deficit will fall by just 3.4% in nominal terms, driven by the effect of the economic recovery on public revenues, and by a reduction in energy and transport subsidies. By contrast, interest payments will rise, showing the increasing burden of the government’s decision to finance the fiscal deficit through new public debt. Impacts The budget shows a slight fall in tax pressure, so tax reform will be postponed until 2019 at least. The cut in energy and transport subsidies will boost inflation, making it more difficult for the Central Bank to achieve its target. The government will need to show its optimism is well-founded if it hopes to do well in the 2019 elections.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

Venezuela's Maduro gains breathing space, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Bolivarian Revolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Broad Base ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance The party base of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) began the process of nominations for primaries that will be convened in June to select candidates for the 2015 National Assembly elections. The government enters the selection process on the back of a rise in popular support catalysed by perceived US aggression and Maduro's strong anti-imperialist narrative. Impacts The broad base of the PSUV nominations process contrasts with MUD plans, fuelling doubts over MUD divisions. Chavista 'battle units' will nominate four candidates, a strategy that is boosting waning enthusiasm for the Bolivarian Revolution. The primaries process strengthens the government's commitment to the parliamentary elections, the date of which has yet to be set.

Kazakhstan will silence dissenting voices amid crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
International Image ◽  
International Human ◽  
The Government

Subject Prosecutions for questioning Kazakhstan's statehood. Significance Two civil society activists in Kazakhstan, Yermek Narymbayev and Serikjan Mambetalin, were jailed on January 22 after being found guilty of 'inciting ethnic discord' for comments they posted on Facebook. The verdict, condemned by domestic and international human rights groups, came shortly before the authorities announced that elections to the lower house of parliament originally scheduled for January 2017 had been brought forward to March 20. Impacts Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party will win a majority in the March polls and other parties that gain seats will have tacit government approval. Crackdowns on freedom of expression will tarnish efforts to maintain good relations with the West. The government will continue to fund costly lobbying campaigns to improve its international image.

Nigerian oil rebound vital for economic recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
China And India ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Interventions

Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.

New Cyprus parliament will be tougher to deal with

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Republic Of Cyprus ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Subject The May 22 parliamentary elections. Significance The elections had the lowest turnout in the history of the Republic of Cyprus and brought about significant changes in the composition of the chamber. They were conducted amid a climate of fragile economic recovery and talks with the Turkish Cypriots on reunification. The outcome was a weakening of parliamentary support for the talks and a louder voice for nationalist, anti-austerity and anti-reform views. Impacts The government that is in place will not be affected because Cyprus has a presidential system. However, the lack of a parliamentary majority could hinder the Cypriot economy's fragile recovery. Resolving the division of Cyprus problem would be a significant positive boost for the very insecure Eastern Mediterranean.

Italy's Renzi will face critical tests before year-end

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Political Leadership ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.

Morocco's parliamentary poll will be tight contest

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document