New terror groups may increase Egyptian insecurity

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Western Desert ◽  
Nile Valley ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Sinai Peninsula ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
State Affiliate

Subject Emergence of new terrorist groups. Significance As Egypt prepares for presidential elections in the first half of 2018, two additional militant groups add to an already-complex militant landscape, with rising security risks. Although Jund al-Islam’s re-emergence in the Sinai Peninsula could complicate military operations targeting the Islamic State affiliate, Wilayat Sinai, it is the new group known as Ansar al-Islam that poses the more significant threat. Impacts Ansar al-Islam’s presence in the Western Desert threatens a wide area stretching to the outskirts of Cairo and the Nile Valley. Rising salafi-jihadist groups could disrupt the upcoming presidential elections. Violence in the Sinai may spike as the Islamic State affiliate is presented with an al-Qaida-aligned rival. The Egyptian mainland, in particular the Western Desert, could become a key battleground for the new jihadists.

Libya will fuel North Africa terrorism risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Africa ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Will Force ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact

Subject Effect of Libya on North Africa Significance The inability to produce a peace agreement in Libya and the prospect of a foreign intervention to counter the spread of Islamic State group (ISG) in the country raises questions on the impact this could have on Libya's North African neighbours. Impacts Military pressure on ISG in Libya will motivate the group to strike targets abroad to demonstrate its capabilities. ISG could use more sophisticated weapons against potential Western airstrikes and military operations. Insecurity in Libya will force its neighbours to maintain high levels of military spending at a time of lower government revenues. An influx of refugees into Tunisian and Algerian border areas could strain local resources.

Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Iran regional policy will bolster IRGC political power

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Significance Iran's armed forces have suffered a number of high-profile casualties in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks. General Mohammad Ali Allah-Dadi was killed in an Israeli airstrike inside Syria in January, while General Hamid Taqavi was killed by the Islamic State group (ISG) in Iraq in late December. Taqavi was the highest-ranking officer to be killed since the Iran-Iraq war ended in 1988. Both men were members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran's elite military force that conducts all of Tehran's military operations outside the country's borders. As rising instability threatens Iran's interests, the IRGC has stepped up its deployment across the region, raising the risk of military overstretch. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the IRGC is at loggerheads with the government of President Hassan Rouhani as nuclear negotiations approach their next deadline. Impacts IRGC dominance in Tehran policy-making will prevent any wider rapprochement with Washington. Resolution to the Syrian civil war will require regional political agreement involving Iran. Tensions with Saudi Arabia are at risk of further escalation. Demands on the defence budget will increase, raising fiscal strain on government.

Haftar’s ambitions may intensify Libya war

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Terrorist Groups

Subject Impact of the ambitions of Khalifa Haftar. Significance Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar has been trying to expand his control, changing the balance of power in Libya and marking a decisive setback for UN-led reunification efforts. The UN has brought Libyans back to the negotiating table to amend the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), which has failed to gain the endorsement of the eastern parliament and has been steadily losing legitimacy. Impacts Fighting between Haftar and his opponents would endanger the gains in oil exports. Terrorist groups, such as Islamic State, would benefit from the security vacuum. Haftar would struggle to consolidate power, even if he managed to declare a military government.

Islamic State sets trends in militant social media use

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Crowd Sourcing ◽  
Interactive Communication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Adopters ◽  
Software Applications ◽  
Use Of Social Media ◽  
State Group

Subject Analysis of the use of social media by jihadists. Significance Insurgent groups were early adopters of social media in the Middle East. The technology allows instant, interactive communication between people without geographical limits and enables mass dissemination of any visual, oral or written message. Initially, jihadists primarily used it for propaganda purposes, but the diffusion of mobile technology and software applications has meant they increasingly use it to reach out directly to potential recruits. More importantly, they use social media as a force multiplier in their military operations. The Islamic State group (ISG) has elevated the use of social media to a new level by combining the use of all these different functions. Impacts ISG will disseminate grim imagery and shocking acts of violence in order to sustain its momentum and project power. Private hacker groups, such as the Anonymous hackers collective, will increasingly track and disable jihadi accounts. Governments could use crowd-sourcing to aid counter-radicalisation efforts.

The use of crypto-currencies in funding violent jihad

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela S.M. Irwin ◽  
George Milad
Keyword(s):  
Significant Risk ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Value Transfer ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Behaviour Models ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to look at current discourse on the topic of crypto-currencies, more specifically Bitcoins, and their application to funding acts of terror. The paper clearly establishes the risks posed by this new payment technology and value transfer system to assist in the process of funding, planning and implementing acts of terror. Design/methodology/approach Publications, blogs and sites published and administered by terrorists groups and their supporters are examined to determine their interest in leveraging emerging payment and value transfer systems to facilitate the funding, planning and implementation of terror attacks. Press releases and other publications are also examined to determine whether crypto-currencies have been used by these groups in fund raising, fund transfer or recent terror attacks. Findings Although it is difficult to find concrete evidence of largescale use of Bitcoins and other crypto-currencies by terrorist groups and their supporters, there is strong evidence to suggest that they have been linked to a number of terror attacks in Europe and Indonesia. Supporters of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), jihadists and terrorist organisations are actively looking to and promoting the use of new and emerging technologies, such as Bitcoin, to mitigate some of the risks associated with traditional fund transfer methods. Some websites associated with terrorist organisations have started to collect donations in Bitcoins. Many Bitcoin ATMs and Bitcoin exchanges are located in countries that have seen significant numbers of foreign fighters join ISIS in the Middle East and are also positioned in countries that have seen increased risk of terror attack. These present a significant risk because they allow for the seamless, anonymous transfer of funds to and from terrorist groups and their supporters. The paper highlights the need for further in-depth research into reliable ways to circumvent the current difficulties experienced in differentiating illicit transactions from legitimate ones and establishing reliable means of attribution. Originality/value Using a document published by ISIS, which provides would-be jihadists detailed instructions on how they can get to Syria or Iraq without being detected, a set of models were created showing how this could be achieved using Bitcoins alone. From this scenario, red flag indicators and suspicious behaviour models have been created to determine whether they can be identified during detailed analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain which will be conducted in later stages of research.

Energy interests will enhance Israel's regional ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Region ◽  
Clinton Presidency ◽  
State Affiliate ◽  
Closed Door ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
Middle East Region

Subject Energy and security cooperation with Israel's neighbours. Significance Israel's alliances across the Middle East region have strengthened in recent months, despite a continued stalemate in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Facing similar threats and challenges, Israel and some of its Arab neighbours have discreetly developed a common security agenda and cooperated in its implementation. They have expanded economic ties, discussed energy cooperation and even begun to move from closed-door meetings towards more public diplomatic contacts. Impacts Israel will provide Egypt with intelligence in its fight against Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, an Islamic State affiliate in the Sinai. Israel will begin supplying gas to Jordan from the Leviathan field after 2020. Deepening relationships with Israel could undermine the popular legitimacy of Arab governments. In the event of a Clinton presidency, the United States could launch a new Palestinian peace initiative, with the support of Arab allies.

Security risks in Bangladesh could rise

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
One Belt One Road ◽  
Muslim Majority

Subject Security risks in Bangladesh. Significance Bangladesh confronts an array of security risks that could undermine its reputation as a moderate Muslim-majority state. These risks arise from three main sources: political party rivalries, militant Islamist organisations with links to international jihadi networks and domestically oriented Islamist groups that reject secularism. Impacts Tourism will be directly affected by further incidents of political and Islamist violence. A rise in violence in Bangladesh could imperil projects associated with China’s One Belt One Road initiative. Islamic State has threatened to attack foreign apparel firms doing business in Bangladesh, necessitating greater awareness. Bangladesh’s security risk is lower than that of Afghanistan and Pakistan: there is no nationwide insurgency or state links to terrorists.

Southern Thai insurgency may become internationalised

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Southern Thailand

Subject Risks associated with Thailand's southern insurgency. Significance Late last month, Malay-Muslim separatist insurgents in southern Thailand launched coordinated attacks across four provinces. Thailand’s southern insurgency, which was renewed in 2004, has to date been a local conflict, disassociated from international Islamist militancy. Countries across South-east Asia are facing security risks from Islamic State (IS)-affiliated groups. Impacts Signs of the insurgency becoming internationalised would raise the pressure on ASEAN to develop a coherent counterterrorism strategy. Thailand’s military-led government will be preoccupied with curbing anti-junta protests ahead of the elections. Violence in southern Thailand would not be a major threat to tourism in the country, with most tourist centres located elsewhere.

Copts will bear the brunt of terrorism in Egypt

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Sinai Peninsula ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
Muslim Communities

Significance Islamic State (IS) in the Sinai Peninsula claimed responsibility for the attacks in the cities of Tanta and Alexandria. Sectarianism is on the rise in Egypt and IS is looking to exploit antagonism between the Coptic and Muslim communities. Impacts IS is conducting an information and propaganda war drawing on grievances of Egyptian Muslims to incite violence and expand recruitment. IS targeting of Copts could allow the group to operate in Egypt without provoking virulent anti-IS sentiment among the Muslim majority. If IS's new strategy is viewed as a success, other violent groups such as Liwa al-Thawra and Hasm may imitate its tactics.

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