Haftar’s ambitions may intensify Libya war

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Terrorist Groups

Subject Impact of the ambitions of Khalifa Haftar. Significance Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar has been trying to expand his control, changing the balance of power in Libya and marking a decisive setback for UN-led reunification efforts. The UN has brought Libyans back to the negotiating table to amend the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), which has failed to gain the endorsement of the eastern parliament and has been steadily losing legitimacy. Impacts Fighting between Haftar and his opponents would endanger the gains in oil exports. Terrorist groups, such as Islamic State, would benefit from the security vacuum. Haftar would struggle to consolidate power, even if he managed to declare a military government.

Libyan discontent could risk further destabilisation

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Governance Structures ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vulnerable Youth ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Extremist Groups

Significance Since late August both governments have been challenged by a wave of demonstrations protesting endemic corruption and deteriorating standards of living -- partly as a result of a blockade of oil exports since January by eastern authorities. Some rallies have been met with violence. Impacts Protests and violent attempts to quash them are likely to shake what little faith ordinary Libyans retain in existing governance structures. Protesters may target key infrastructure -- including oil -- hoping to make their voices heard, risking another shock to the economy. Extremist groups, including Islamic State, could seek to exploit grievances underpinning the protests, recruiting vulnerable youth.

The use of crypto-currencies in funding violent jihad

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 407-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela S.M. Irwin ◽  
George Milad
Keyword(s):  
Significant Risk ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
Value Transfer ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Behaviour Models ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to look at current discourse on the topic of crypto-currencies, more specifically Bitcoins, and their application to funding acts of terror. The paper clearly establishes the risks posed by this new payment technology and value transfer system to assist in the process of funding, planning and implementing acts of terror. Design/methodology/approach Publications, blogs and sites published and administered by terrorists groups and their supporters are examined to determine their interest in leveraging emerging payment and value transfer systems to facilitate the funding, planning and implementation of terror attacks. Press releases and other publications are also examined to determine whether crypto-currencies have been used by these groups in fund raising, fund transfer or recent terror attacks. Findings Although it is difficult to find concrete evidence of largescale use of Bitcoins and other crypto-currencies by terrorist groups and their supporters, there is strong evidence to suggest that they have been linked to a number of terror attacks in Europe and Indonesia. Supporters of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), jihadists and terrorist organisations are actively looking to and promoting the use of new and emerging technologies, such as Bitcoin, to mitigate some of the risks associated with traditional fund transfer methods. Some websites associated with terrorist organisations have started to collect donations in Bitcoins. Many Bitcoin ATMs and Bitcoin exchanges are located in countries that have seen significant numbers of foreign fighters join ISIS in the Middle East and are also positioned in countries that have seen increased risk of terror attack. These present a significant risk because they allow for the seamless, anonymous transfer of funds to and from terrorist groups and their supporters. The paper highlights the need for further in-depth research into reliable ways to circumvent the current difficulties experienced in differentiating illicit transactions from legitimate ones and establishing reliable means of attribution. Originality/value Using a document published by ISIS, which provides would-be jihadists detailed instructions on how they can get to Syria or Iraq without being detected, a set of models were created showing how this could be achieved using Bitcoins alone. From this scenario, red flag indicators and suspicious behaviour models have been created to determine whether they can be identified during detailed analysis of the Bitcoin blockchain which will be conducted in later stages of research.

Iraqi-Kurdish clashes near Kirkuk could spread

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Iraqi Kurdistan ◽  
Oil Exports

Significance The federal government offensive began on October 13, after a rise in tensions following Kirkuk’s inclusion in the September 25 Kurdish independence referendum. Impacts Fighting could spread beyond Kirkuk and Tuz Khurmatu to other disputed areas. The risk to Kurdish oil exports could raise international oil prices, but only slightly. IS fighters on the Iraq-Syria border will seek to capitalise on the infighting, likely with high-profile attacks against security positions. Fury over the ‘betrayal’ of Kirkuk could upset the balance of power in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Prediction model of propaganda characteristics used by the main jihadist groups

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-66
Author(s):  
Judith Corcoba ◽  
Raigam Jafet Martinez Portilla
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The Other ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Issues ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
The Difference ◽  
State Group

Purpose Jihadist terrorism is one of the most important current global issues. Terrorism is an instrument of fear and fear an instrument of news. The purpose of this paper is to understand the difference in propaganda between the most powerful terrorist groups and the association with the Islamic State group (ISIS). Design/methodology/approach This cross-sectional study has been carried out on the usage of propagandistic material. For the analyses, two different groups have been created, propaganda emitted from the Islamic State group and propaganda from the other main terrorist groups (Boko Haram, Taliban, Al-Qaeda). Findings It has been proved that there are significant differences between the Islamic State propaganda and the other main groups. Originality/value This study has been conducted in order to provide a comparison of the propaganda content of the main jihadist groups.

Fiscal squeeze will slow Iraq oil sector expansion

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Trade Sanctions ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
State Group ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of a fiscal squeeze on oil sector investment. Significance Despite continuing turmoil in parts of the country, Iraq's oil exports are rising, averaging close to 3 million barrels a day (b/d) in March, the highest since 1990 when financial and trade sanctions were imposed after the occupation of Kuwait. April exports are on course to top 3 million b/d. Yet financial difficulties caused by the decline in global oil prices and the high cost of the war against the Islamic State group (ISG) are affecting the government's ambitious investment plans for the sector, prompting the oil ministry to request international oil companies (IOCs) in southern Iraq to scale back their expansion plans. Impacts Government plans to increase southern production from almost 3 million b/d to 8 million b/d by 2020 will need to be revised. Introduction of new heavy grade oil expands Iraq's oil marketing potential. Decline in oil revenues will lead to reduced government spending and a higher fiscal deficit in 2015.

Egypt unlikely to solve aviation safety concerns soon

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Aviation Safety ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Black Boxes ◽  
International Attention ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Explosive Device ◽  
State Group

Significance Russia suspended all direct flights to the country after Islamic State group (ISG)'s Sinai affiliate downed a Russian A321 Metrojet civilian aircraft departing from Egypt's Sharm el-Sheikh airport on October 31, 2015. Further incidents followed in 2016, including the hijacking of an EgyptAir flight from Alexandria to Cairo in March, and the crash of an EgyptAir flight from Paris to Cairo in May. These developments have focused international attention on the ability of the authorities to ensure aviation safety, and on the intention of locally-based terrorist groups to target the sector. Impacts Egypt's forthcoming report on the Metrojet's black boxes may be ineffective in assuaging concerns about how an explosive device got onboard. Until the flight bans are lifted, prospects for a revival of Egypt's tourism industry are dim. Attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh, Brussels and Istanbul show ISG's interest in taking advantage of airport vulnerabilities. Egypt will make slow progress in reducing the threat from ISG-Sinai.

New terror groups may increase Egyptian insecurity

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Western Desert ◽  
Nile Valley ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Sinai Peninsula ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
State Affiliate

Subject Emergence of new terrorist groups. Significance As Egypt prepares for presidential elections in the first half of 2018, two additional militant groups add to an already-complex militant landscape, with rising security risks. Although Jund al-Islam’s re-emergence in the Sinai Peninsula could complicate military operations targeting the Islamic State affiliate, Wilayat Sinai, it is the new group known as Ansar al-Islam that poses the more significant threat. Impacts Ansar al-Islam’s presence in the Western Desert threatens a wide area stretching to the outskirts of Cairo and the Nile Valley. Rising salafi-jihadist groups could disrupt the upcoming presidential elections. Violence in the Sinai may spike as the Islamic State affiliate is presented with an al-Qaida-aligned rival. The Egyptian mainland, in particular the Western Desert, could become a key battleground for the new jihadists.

Islamic State will thrive on Libya’s divisions

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The South ◽  
Foreign Missions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Target State ◽  
Terrorist Groups

Significance IS will likely look to further expand the scope of its operations in major urban centres, using low-cost attacks with high publicity returns. Impacts Ineffective implementation of security reforms will make it easier for IS to target state institutions. The upcoming elections, UN-planned conference and return of foreign missions may give IS incentive to plan more attacks. Both administrations’ failure to secure the south will allow IS to create alliances with local terrorist groups.

Iraq’s new cabinet will struggle with IS resurgence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Revenue Sharing ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Core ◽  
Oil Exports

Significance The incident is symptomatic of an Islamic State (IS) resurgence in the country. Yet despite parliament’s approval of Abdul-Mahdi as prime minister and ratification of the core of his cabinet, key security posts (including interior and defence ministers) remain vacant. Impacts Contested security leadership may facilitate an IS resurgence. The United States will likely grant sanctions exemptions for purchases of Iranian electricity and gas. A revenue-sharing deal with the Kurds will likely be written into the 2019 budget. Oil exports via Kirkuk are likely to resume.

International jihadist terrorism is still potent

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Combat Experience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Jihadist Terrorism

Subject Jihadist terrorism in the past year. Significance Developments in terrorist groups in the past year were marked by Islamic State (IS)’s military 'defeat' in Syria and, in parallel, expansion into South-east Asia and West Africa via the emergence of new ‘provinces’; al-Qaida (AQ)’s consolidation and growing capabilities via opportunistic local collaborations; and concerns over Jemaah Islamiyah (JI)’s resurgence in Indonesia. Impacts Targeting of places of worship in South-east Asia may become an entrenched trend. AQIM will keep trying to exploit socio-political grievances in the Maghreb region and Mali. Despite its losses, IS has more money, better media profile and more combat experience than AQ.

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