Domestic demand will drive Belgium’s GDP growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Government ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Government Deficit

Significance Belgium’s competitiveness has been undermined by the indexation of wages to inflation and its GDP growth has trailed that of the euro-area since 2015. However, a tax and economic reform package implemented since 2016 has contributed to a pickup in growth in 2017-18. Impacts Business investment is expected to be the fastest-growing component of GDP growth. The National Bank of Belgium estimates that the tax reform will add 1.2% to GDP and allow the creation of more than 50,000 jobs in 2016-20. The reform package is mostly self-financed, so the general government deficit is expected to stay around 1.0-1.5% of GDP in 2018-19. The 2019 elections could derail the reform process if forming a coalition proves difficult or if parties' policy priorities diverge.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Economic reform will falter with new Turkish cabinet

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
Financial Difficulties

Significance Presenting his government's programme on November 25, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu promised to keep his election campaign pledges, complete major infrastructure projects, maintain fiscal stability and implement structural change. Impacts Domestic demand will strengthen in the short term. However, firms in labour intensive sectors may face financial difficulties, and new job creation may be slow. Currency and capital markets are likely to remain volatile and overreact to trends in monetary policy and the current account. Opportunities exist for those investors able to tap into the government's priorities and avoid political risks.

Peruvian growth will again disappoint this year

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Level ◽  
Poverty Levels ◽  
Roll Back

Subject Outlook for Peruvian growth. Significance With both external and domestic demand ebbing in the first few months of 2019, forecasters are reducing their estimates for GDP growth in 2019. Peru is exposed to a slowdown in growth in China, since it is by far its biggest export market and the main source of foreign investment. Public investment also appears to be slower than in previous years. Impacts Slower growth will impact negatively on employment and risk pushing up poverty levels. Business groups will increase their pressure on government to roll back social legislation on matters like labour stability. The relatively high level of reserves will cushion Peru from balance of payments pressures.

Economic woes to mark succession preparation in Cuba

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Cuban economy. Significance Less than three months before President Raul Castro is due to step down from the state leadership, Cuba’s economy is in decline and its reform process has stalled. Castro’s heir apparent, Vice President Miguel Diaz-Canel, is keeping a low profile and promising continuity. An emerging independent media is causing concern in government circles but has not yet led to a crackdown. Impacts The economic downturn will strain society but an outburst of social unrest remains unlikely for now. As US pressure and domestic tensions rise, Havana will strive for cohesion, even if this stalls economic reform. Trump's confrontational politics force Havana to seek foreign investment elsewhere and to maintain good relations with the EU and Canada.

Germany’s trade surplus benefits the euro-area

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Eu

Subject Germany’s trade surplus. Significance Germany runs a large trade surplus with other euro-area countries and the rest of the world. Critics have argued that wages in Germany have not increased enough in recent years and that the country should boost domestic demand. However, trade and wage developments with other euro-area countries show that such criticism is largely misguided. Impacts Germany’s offshoring of production processes helps boost GDP growth in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Creating a more innovation-friendly environment and investing in R&D would lift the long-term growth potential of the euro-area. Completing the digital single market could contribute to more innovation across the EU.

Reforms' concrete impact on Turkey may not be obvious

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
International Business ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Laws And Regulations

Subject The outlook for economic reform. Significance The government is carrying out a series of changes to laws and regulations affecting the business environment, aiming to make the economy more competitive and encouraging investors. Legislation on taxation and labour markets is already before parliament. Some landmark changes could be made, particularly in taxation. Other steps may be minor or partial, and their contribution to the economy and business environment may be less clear. Impacts The reform process may well help stabilise Turkey's ranking in international business indices. For individual firms, significant opportunities or benefits could arise, or changes in the environments in which they operate. Financial markets will react positively to progress on reforms, despite a focus on global financial and economic conditions and politics.

Czech economy at the beginning of 1997

1997 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Janáček ◽  
Martin Čihák ◽  
Marie Frýdmanová ◽  
Tomáš Holub ◽  
Eva Zamrazilová
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Actual Growth ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Fast Increase

Czech GDP growth in 1996 failed to reach the rates expected by most domestic and foreign experts and institutions. Compared to initial forecasts which ranged between 5.0 and 5.5 %, the actual growth of real GDP fell short by roughly 1 percentage point: we expect the final GDP growth figure to be within 4.1 - 4.4 %. Private consumption and fixed investment were the main factors of GDP growth in 1996. A gap persisted between domestic supply and domestic demand; the gap tended to be relatively stable and was covered by a fast increase of imports of goods and services. <p>The slowdown of GDP growth was caused by several factors, prominent among them are: a sizeable slowdown of export; lack of ability to launch a more dynamic export effort; nominal appreciation of the Czech currency against both the DEM and the USD; a decelerating effect of the measures taken by the Czech National Bank in mid 1996, when monetary policy turned from neutral to restrictive.

Uzbek privatisations will underpin reform ambitions

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Political Reform ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Major Task ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The Face ◽  
Belt And Road

Significance The decree reflects President Shavqat Mirzioyev's committment to an economic reform process -- a major task in the face of structural and institutional rigidity. Economic change has not been matched by political reform, despite some improvements to law enforcement. Impacts The reform process is at risk of being slowed or halted by the combined forces of inertia and vested interests. The practice of directing credit to favoured insiders will continue to disadvantage others in the private sector. Beijing's Belt and Road initiatives will be supported by Uzbekistan's increasingly collaborative government.

Africa may ‘win’ more from US-China tariffs than ASEAN

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Early Analysis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Relative 'winners' from Sino-US trade conflict. Significance While early analysis of the trade conflict suggested that diversion opportunities might create ‘winners’, notably in ASEAN, there has been little sign of such gains. However, some countries are still seeing export sales grow and may emerge as relative winners. Notably, Vietnam’s exports are outperforming other ASEAN members and over the medium term Africa has a chance to buck the global trend. Impacts Falling imports are outpacing export losses in some nations, confusing the picture as trade is appearing to contribute to GDP growth. Tracking how much of global growth weakness is due to the tariffs is tricky as business investment and trade have long been sluggish. Tariffs and other disruptions including sanctions and Brexit will give firms many reasons to review their plans and reposition globally.

Business tax to value-added tax reform in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 602-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Wang ◽  
Jagdeep Singh-Ladhar ◽  
Howard Davey
Keyword(s):  
Tax Reform ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Service Industries ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Value Added Tax ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Tax

Purpose This paper aims to examine the indirect tax reform process in China. Specifically, it examines the reform of business tax to value-added tax. Inefficiencies within the new tax system are identified and discussed. The “business tax to value-added tax” reform was seen as an essential element in promoting the economic transition and stimulating the service industries (Jin and Jin, 2013). Design/methodology/approach The paper uses archival and current literature. In undertaking the study, the different periods of indirect tax are examined, prior to 1994, 1994-2012, the changes from 2012 culminating in the new 2017 regime. Attributes of “good” value-added tax (VAT) systems are covered as well as a comparison with New Zealand’s goods and services tax (GST). Findings The paper finds that to align with the international trend of indirect tax development and more efficiently accomplish the economic transition China needs to build a more neutral VAT system with fewer reduced rates and exemptions and the tax system have created tax inefficiencies and increased the compliance cost. VAT is imposing an increasingly significant impact on China’s national economy and industrial structure as well as accountants. Originality/value This is the first study that analyses the indirect tax reforms that are currently being implemented in China and as such has lessons for China but also for VAT/GST in general. We should not forget how special New Zealand’s GST is and the clarity of focus of those who implemented it!

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