COVID-19 will batter Japan’s economy

Subject The economic outlook for Japan amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Significance Japan has had unusually few confirmed cases of COVID-19, but government advisers warn that a recent spike could lead to a runaway spread that overwhelms the health system. In response, the government declared a state of emergency on April 7 and announced a huge fiscal stimulus package. Compared to other countries, the emergency measures are far more lenient and the economic stimulus package more generous. Impacts Exports are collapsing, as well as tourism, hotels, entertainment venues and air travel. Remote working, which fewer than 20% of Japanese firms currently practise, will receive a boost. The government stimulus package is likely to be smaller than headline figures suggest.

Subject European economic outlook. Significance European economic growth is set to continue on a downward trend and might turn negative. Despite the need for substantial macroeconomic expansion, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which it can be engineered within Europe, while pressures outside the EU will make the economic environment more fragile. Impacts Only a recession in Germany which triggers a strong political backlash could see Berlin implement a significant fiscal stimulus package. While Europe’s dependency on Saudi oil is low, a prolonged decline in production would add to pressure on its economy. Italy’s new government will respect EU fiscal rules and reduce concerns that Italy could leave the euro.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Hosoda

Purpose This study aims to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected telework initiatives in Japanese companies and investigate the factors that affect telework based on the technology, organization and environment (TOE) model, through the analysis of published documents. Design/methodology/approach Document analysis was adopted. Documents were collected from English news articles in the Nikkei Asian Review and Nikkei Asia which cover Japan's economy, industries and markets. The results of surveys by the Persol Research Institute and Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry were also provided to discuss factors promoting and hindering telework. Content analysis was adopted to analyse the documents. Findings COVID-19 had an unavoidable impact on the implementation of telework that the government had previously failed to instigate. Japanese listed companies tend to implement telework, whereas small- and medium-sized companies are struggling. The ratio of telework has been low even after the declaration of the state of emergency because there exist organizational, technological and environmental barriers to telework in Japan. Originality/value This study contributes to discussions on work style reform by focusing on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on telework. This research also gives new insight into operationalization of telework in organizations not only in Japan but also in other countries known for low rates of telework and inflexible work styles such as Korea.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Osama Ali Maher ◽  
Dmitry Mun ◽  
Fatma Giha ◽  
Mayouson Ali ◽  
Saverio Bellizzi

Purpose The paper aims to examine some economical, political and health system indicators on the transmission of the COVID-19 transmission within the national system. The main objective is to investigate what are the most effective indicators which have led to the declared numbers by countries. Design/methodology/approach This study combined multiple sets of data to describe best the economical status of the health system including the government spending on the health system to draw some conclusion regarding the behavior of the pandemic. Findings Complex emergencies and internal conflicts negatively affected the quality of the reported cases and the size of the pandemic. The health work force was the most determinant factor of the health system. It can sometimes be impossible to understand the epidemic only with epidemiological data or health system one; economical aspects of health system and political situation have to be added to the equation. Originality/value The research according to the authors’ knowledge is the most comprehensive comparison so far that investigate the non-covid aspects from a political side in particular in complex emergencies and war situation added health system indicators.


Subject The outlook for the healthcare sector in China. Significance The 13th Five-year Plan (2016-20), now being compiled for release later this year, will see structural reform of the health system and greater investment in healthcare. Improving healthcare is an important source of popular support for the government, and has implications too for economic growth, indigenous innovation and market access for foreign businesses. Impacts China is highly susceptible to infectious disease outbreaks; the world will depend on its health system for protection. Over-prescription of antibiotics is making China a dangerous source of antibiotic-resistance. More healthcare spending could gradually alter the balance power in the wider state bureaucracy, altering the longer-term policy outlook. China is now far better placed to deal with a contagion than it was when SARS hit in 2003.


Significance Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a rising tide of euro-area members in favour of a policy shift away from austerity and possibly towards more favourable debt deals for euro-area black spots. Adding to the pressure for change, her own voters may prefer a slower pace of debt reduction: German government debt has already been falling as a percentage of GDP -- from over 80% in 2010 to under 77% at the end of 2014 -- and debt is starting to fall in absolute terms as well. The government has delivered enough stabilisation (ie, austerity) and growth to tame the 2009-10 debt surge and maintain its AAA credit rating, but is now over-achieving in terms of its own tough targets because the greater-than-expected fall in debt interest costs is pushing the budget into surplus. Some modest spending adjustments look likely to curb this windfall surplus, yet many will argue that more could be done to re-energise the sluggish economy -- and boost the euro-area. Impacts The plummeting euro will provoke another rise in German exports (already near 50% of GDP) and tensions over Germany's bulging trade surplus. While a fiscal stimulus and/or higher wage payments could address these tensions and raise imports, there is no sign of such action. Germany's critics are gathering support to end austerity, to the point of ignoring the risks of deficit financing and reneging on debts. Ultra-low German bond yields, encouraged by the prospective supply fall, are dragging down euro-area yields, delivering wider benefits.


Subject Political impact of subsidy reform. Significance Saudi Arabia introduced its first major cut to energy subsidies in January, leading to a rise in petrol, diesel, fuel oil, natural gas and electricity prices. Further cuts will be necessary to avert a fiscal crisis -- but with cheap energy seen as a basic part of the social contract between the government and the population, such measures are expected to have wide-reaching political repercussions. Impacts A decision to reverse subsidy cuts in the face of protest would undercut government credibility and reduce the prospect of further reforms. Yet persisting with subsidy reforms could damage government legitimacy and political capital among the youth and lower classes. Successful reforms will improve the long-term economic outlook, and the succession prospects of Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.


Subject State land ownership and the implications for development in China. Significance The government owns all land in China -- one of the reasons that the country claims still to be a 'socialist' state, despite the role of markets in most areas of the economy. A de facto land lease system has emerged in which land 'use rights' are traded. However, the rights of the owner -- the state or local government -- take precedence over the rights of the land user. As a result, requisitioning land for infrastructure or property development is much faster than in countries with a genuine land market. Impacts In the near term, local authorities' easy access to land will make infrastructure-based fiscal stimulus measures faster to execute. The tight timeframes of China's urbanisation goals are more plausible given the government's powers over land. Local governments' power to expropriate land creates perverse incentives and opportunities for corruption. Reforms to make the system more market-oriented are likely in the long term, but will be gradual.


Subject The near-term economic outlook. Significance The statist model preferred by the governing Frente Amplio (FA) coalition clashes with the plan designed by President Tabare Vazquez and his economy and foreign ministers, Danilo Astori and Rodolfo Nin Novoa respectively, to try to attract greater inward investment. This adds to intra-coalition tensions after the defection of a centre-left legislator caused the government to lose its congressional majority. Impacts The fear of losing support may help to concentrate FA minds on smoothing over party splits. A new cellulose plant would boost economic growth but not diversification. The economy will avoid recession, but growth will not pick up strongly in the near term.


Subject The economic outlook for Fiji. Significance Fiji has returned to political stability and a degree of international legitimacy in recent years, albeit in a context of poor to moderate economic growth. GDP growth of 4.0 % is forecast for 2015, but the outlook for Fiji's main industries (tourism, gold and services) remains stagnant as aggregate regional demand for resources slumps and Fiji's comparative advantage as a regional services hub erodes. Impacts The government will actively promote FDI to boost Fiji's lacklustre economic growth prospects. The government will promote agriculture and fisheries to provide opportunities for disadvantaged rural and ethnic populations. Foreign investment in tourism will probably increase slowly as demand from Asian countries grows. Fiji's dominance in the South Pacific economy will likely diminish as advances in ICT allow it to be bypassed. Ways must be found to prevent loss of trained and educated personnel if Fiji is to maintain its central role.


Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The government has determined a fiscal adjustment, with tax increases for middle- and high-income earners, delays in public spending plans and a reform of military pensions, in a bid to address worsening public finances. It is the first time that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), in government since 2005, has faced an adverse economic climate. Impacts Austerity in a context of 'stagflation' will generate political and trade union tensions. Rising unemployment will drive a deterioration in real family incomes. Growth will remain paltry this year and next.


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