NCP dissolution offers respite to Sudan’s government

Subject Dissolution of Sudan's former ruling party. Significance The transitional government on November 28 approved a law dissolving the National Congress Party (NCP), the former ruling party that held power since 1989 under deposed President Omar al-Bashir. The dissolution responds to a key demand of the protesters who forced the NCP and Bashir out of power. It also provides some temporary relief for a transitional government burdened by huge expectations and challenges on all sides. Impacts The new law is based on accountability but will not be a substitute for criminal justice proceedings against former NCP officials. Although the committee is not mandated to investigate individual responsibility for crimes, its work may inform criminal investigations. Tracing NCP assets may prove challenging given the number of deals that were transacted in cash.

Subject Sudan’s ruling party, its capabilities and political implications. Significance President Omar al-Bashir has been in power for 27 years, supported by the National Congress Party (NCP) and its predecessor, the National Islamic Front (NIF). Following the completion last year of a 'national dialogue', the government is ostensibly due to form a new cabinet this year. While some breakaway or new political parties cooperate with the NCP, the core Sudanese opposition parties -- long-standing and newer ones -- continue to oppose the government; some boycotted the national dialogue. Impacts The national security apparatus will maintain tight controls on Sudanese activists and media. The government will look to Arab allies for further budgetary assistance. New anti-government protests and strikes remain a risk.


Significance The Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition of civilian and rebel groups have rejected the deal, but Hamdok has justified it on the grounds that (among other things) it will prevent the return of the former ruling National Congress Party (NCP), apparently responding to ongoing speculation over whether NCP-era Islamists influenced Burhan’s October 25 coup. Impacts Burhan will probably limit the work of the Empowerment Removal Committee, which aims to dismantle NCP-era power structures. Any empowerment of Islamists will likely be selective, to avoid alienating regional powers or FFC figures who might be open to cooperation. A marked turn towards Islamism would undermine the chances of a peace deal with holdout rebel groups who seek a secular state.


Subject Sudan's draft electoral law. Significance The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) is poised to table a controversial draft electoral law ahead of elections scheduled for 2020. President Omar al-Bashir is also widely expected to seek a constitutional amendment to allow him to run for office again, after the NCP nominated him as its party candidate in August. Opposition parties have rejected the electoral law, which they see as evidence of Bashir’s intention to manipulate the process to ensure his victory. Impacts Some opposition and political forces may look to forge new political coalitions or alliances to increase their leverage. Bashir’s intransigence over his re-election will strain relations with key foreign partners such as the United States. Deep economic crisis and hardships for ordinary Sudanese will amplify domestic discontent with the NCP’s rule.


Significance The poll follows the collapse of the minority government led by President Francisco Guterres’s and Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri’s Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin). A parliamentary grouping led by Xanana Gusmao’s National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) had blocked Fretilin’s budget, with the CNRT now leading a Change for Progress Alliance (AMP). Impacts If Fretilin’s support drops below 30%, Alkatiri may come under pressure to relinquish leadership of the party. The dominance in East Timorese politics of resistance-era political elites will increase. Given Australia’s closer relations with ASEAN, the boundary treaty with East Timor will add to Canberra’s growing influence in the region.


Subject The ruling party's response to the Sudan protests. Significance President Omar al-Bashir and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) continue to face severe pressure from recurrent public protests that began last December. Chronic economic difficulties have contributed to civil unrest and protesters have called for Bashir to step down. Impacts New protest escalations are likely but may be short-lived. Security forces will continue to use harsh measures to deter protesters. The government will likely seek further political and financial support from the Gulf.


2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Faiz Omar Mohammad Jamie

The paper analyses the emergence of the National Congress Party (N.C.P.) within the context of the recent political history of Sudan in post 1989 era. The date marks the time when Islamists in Sudan assumed power following a coup d’état led by General Omer Al-Bashir, latter on came to be known as the Ingaz regime. The significance of the experience of this Party emanates from the fact that, though it started as a one ruling party, it managed to conclude in 2005 the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (C.P.A.) a major peace agreement ending one of the longest internal wars in Africa. The Agreement was included in the Constitution of the country, consequently hosting Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the movement which led the rebellion to become a partner party/movement in the rule of the country. The paper reflects on this power sharing experience during the Interim Period up to 2011 wherein the Referendum on Self-determination of South Sudan resulted in dividing the Country into two sovereign states.


Subject The presidential and parliamentary elections in April. Significance President Omar Hassan al-Bashir has been in power for nearly 26 years. In the past four years Bashir and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) have weathered the secession of South Sudan, economic stagnation, protests and renewed armed conflict in parts of the country. The government has committed itself to holding full elections on April 13-15 in line with the electoral timetable, but much of the competitive politicking has already taken place. Impacts Economic policy and practice will not change, with government departments suffering from politicisation and interests that deter reform. The low-level conflicts in Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur will remain unresolved. Khartoum and central and northern Sudan will remain secure unless a political crisis occurs at the centre.


Significance President Serzh Sargsyan has proposed moving from a presidential to a parliamentary system of government. His embrace of constitutional reform at this stage stems from a new degree of self-confidence, following his political neutralisation of the Prosperous Armenia (BH) party. The opposition Armenian National Congress (HAK) will oppose the reforms. The ARF and HAK moves are rooted in political weakness and desperation: it seems that ARF wants to return to the governing coalition, and HAK to regain lost credibility, especially after the defeat of its political partner, BH, whose leader, Gagik Tsarukian, has resigned. Impacts The hobbling of Armenia's second-largest political party will reinforce the grip on power of the ruling party and the president. However, this could prove merely a tactical victory for Sargsyan against the political aspirations of his predecessor in office, Kocharyan. The threat to move against Tsarukian's business interests will mark a dangerous trend in the selective application of state power.


Subject Gujarat state election scenarios. Significance Elections for the Gujarat Legislative Assembly take place on December 9 and 14, with results set to be declared on December 18. India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has ruled the state for 22 years, but the main opposition Congress party and several activists are campaigning to unseat it. Impacts Opposition to electronic voting machines may increase, especially if there are complaints of malfunctions. Several other states may see social groups campaigning for affirmative action in higher education and government jobs. Attacks by cow vigilantes on Dalits (historically ‘untouchable’) and Muslims are likely to increase nationally.


1981 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patricia Aufderheide

Criminal justice records provide the historian with a wealth of data on social deviance, and on the role of the judiciary in defining and controlling it. They can as well comment on the most invisible group for the social historian: the “innocent bystanders,” the respectable folk who distinguish themselves neither by their power and influence nor by their deviance. This essay illustrates the value of one kind of judicial data, local criminal investigations in Brazil, to provide information on the working citizens of a community. Changes in the characteristics of that population may be indicative of wider social stress in the Brazilian Independence period.


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