Neglect of Sahel border regions will sustain smuggling

Subject Smuggling in the Sahel. Significance Trade in and smuggling of cigarettes, drugs, fuel, gold, migrants, weapons and vehicles is extensive across the Sahel and with North African neighbours. These businesses are relatively lucrative in places that are otherwise underdeveloped and entail diverse interactions with local authorities, security forces and armed groups. In general, cross-border trade and smuggling occurs in regions peripheral to the centres of power in the countries concerned, and national authorities therefore have limited capacity to increase state regulation and control. Impacts Despite the war, Libya is still richer than many neighbours, so it will keep attracting migrants. Clamping down on people smuggling has made it more dangerous and increased migrant deaths. Trade and smuggling flows within the Sahel and between the Sahel and North Africa will grow.

Subject Trends in global trade and shipping. Significance Slower growth in China and other emerging economies, and feeble growth in the developed world are curbing the expansion of world merchandise trade. Reflecting those trends and the rising importance of cross-border trade in services, international shipping will experience prolonged low growth. Impacts The level and nature of future Chinese economic development will remain the largest determinant of international trade and shipping trends. The pace at which the digital economy disrupts global manufacturing supply chains will have far-reaching consequences for trade patterns. Global trade will shift away from the shipping-intensive intra-industry patterns of the last few decades.


Subject Energy diversification. Significance Central America is exploring ways to diversify its power generation, pursuing more sustainable hydropower and geothermal energy and developing other renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, biofuels and agricultural waste. The region’s massive potential to develop renewable energy is increasingly being recognised internationally, but issues with capacity and investor confidence weigh on progress. Impacts Fossil fuel use will continue to grow alongside an increase in renewables. Cross-border trade in renewable energy is likely to develop over the coming years. Costa Rica's image as an ecotourism hub will drive domestic and international enthusiasm for renewables investment there.


Subject Canadian provincial and federal politicial dynamics. Significance As Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s term gets underway, Quebec is beginning its election campaign, running to October 1; the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) will likely perform well. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a fractious final year, as relations worsen between the Liberal federal government and various new right-wing provincial governments. Leading issues are migration, carbon taxes, cross-border trade and right-wing provincial governments’ socially conservative and fiscally austere agendas. Impacts Failed NAFTA renegotiations would hurt Trudeau’s administration before 2019 and necessitate further post-2019 negotiations. Right-wing provincial premiers will still cooperate with Trudeau to mitigate the effect of US trade tariffs on Canada. Currently, Trudeau and the Liberals are likely to win in 2019, but opposition parties will gain votes.


Subject Uganda-Rwanda bilateral relations. Significance Rwanda and Uganda have held a series of meetings aimed at defusing tensions following a string of controversial deportations of Rwandans from Uganda. The highest profile saw Rwandan President Paul Kagame meet Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on the sidelines of the African Union Summit on January 28. Following the discussion, exchanges of hostile rhetoric have eased. However, relations remain fragile, and the recent friction has inflamed deep-seated antagonisms. Impacts Regional crises in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could become a further point of contention. Uganda-Rwanda frictions may hamper consensus-building in the already-divided East African Community. A spike in tensions could impact cross-border trade and tourism.


Author(s):  
E. V. Konysheva ◽  

The article is focused on the international contacts of the Soviet architecture in the 1930s. The direct object of the research is the cross-border communications of the Union of Soviet Architects: the tasks and forms of contacts of Soviet architects with foreign colleagues and institutions, as well as the role of the Union of Architects in this process; mechanisms of interaction with the authorities and tactics of the professional community in the context of regulation and control of international relations; conflicting nodes of state and professional interests. It is shown that in its international contacts, the Union of Architects did not appear as an independent actor, as it did not have institutional independence in international communications, autonomy in decision-making and its own resources for the implementation of projects. The institutional nature of the interaction prevailed; personal contacts were minimized and included into collective strategies. The international activity of the Union of Architects was part of the state policy of “cultural diplomacy” and had not only a professional, but also a propaganda-ideological component. The authorities ignored the professional motives of the architectural community if they did not coincide with governmental tasks. However, it is shown that the Union of Architects had its own tactics and realized its professional interests, using the interest of the state in a particular project. As a result, the thesis is presented that state regulation and total control sharply narrowed the possibilities of cross-border communications of the architectural community, distorted their forms and contents, but did not destroy them. The discovery and study of new documents shows that the myth of the cultural autarchy of the Stalinist USSR is not confirmed by the example of an architectural field.


Significance The violence is inhibiting Cameroon's cross-border trade with its larger neighbour, exacerbating a deteriorating economic outlook. Impacts Plans to recruit 3,060 new teachers could result in widespread fraud, including 'ghost recruits', given low transparency standards. Civil service expansion, notably of 3,430 young recruits in 2014, will help reduce informal employment, but increase fiscal strains. The creation of new vocational training centres, new 'literacy centres' and 90,000 seasonal jobs will help Cameroon's skills profile.


Subject Outlook for India-Pakistan ties. Significance The cross-border raid conducted on the night of September 28-29 by Indian security forces apparently inside Pakistan-held Kashmir in response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir represents a continuation of a newly assertive neighbourhood security policy by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pakistan has denied such a strike took place, claiming it was only a case of border firing. Impacts Another India-Pakistan war (although unlikely) would involve conventional weapons. Delhi's military move will virtually eliminate bilateral commercial and cultural ties. Beijing and Washington's leverage to prevent an escalation in South Asia may prove insufficient.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 34-56
Author(s):  
Ilia Shubin ◽  

The article examines the cross-border trade of the Russian regions, taking into account the indicators of its volume and commodity structure, and the level of economic complexity. It is concluded that the cross-border trade in Russian regions has, in general, low intensity. This is due to several factors: most of the border areas are located on the economic periphery, both of Russia and of neighboring countries, there are physical and geographical barriers in many areas, and the development of the border area is low. In some cases, the low economic potential of a neighboring country or the existing geopolitical restrictions prevent the growth of trade. Against this background, two sections of the border area stand out: the Russian-Belarusian and the Russian-Chinese. In the first case, the development of trade is facilitated by the absence of customs barriers, historic ties and ethno-cultural proximity, a high degree of infrastructure development of border areas; in the second – by the huge scale of the economy of the neighboring country and a large potential volume of trade with it. In terms of the commodity structure of cross-border trade and its complexity, Russian border regions are usually suppliers of relatively simple goods: raw materials or products of the first processing stages, and import goods of higher complexity, which generally corresponds to the foreign trade specialization of Russia. In 2013–2019, the volume of cross-border trade in Russian regions significantly decreased, mainly due to a reduction in consumer and investment imports caused by a decrease in demand. The strongest decline occurred in cross-border trade with Ukraine. The volume of cross-border trade increased during this period in the Russian-Finnish and Russian-Estonian sections of the border (due to an increase in the volume of exports of nickel matte and mineral fertilizers). The changes in the commodity structure of cross-border trade that took place in 2013–2019 indicate the consolidation of the existing specialization of Russian border regions as suppliers of raw materials and simple products in trade with neighboring countries (except for the republics of the former USSR)


Significance Following a relative slackening of activity, 480 civilians were killed between May and August alone, bringing the total number of Burkinabe deaths since the first attacks in 2015 to more than 1,500. Insecurity seems to be disturbing wider social relations as well, with frequent community protests, deadly vigilante actions and clashes between artisanal miners and mine security forces. Impacts The army’s questionable human rights record may hinder efforts to improve relations with local communities. Organised labour may seek to capitalise on government failures to press its own demands. Failure to reduce armed conflict in the border regions may encourage more violence in the country’s centre as well.


Significance They have started by renaming the old army corps and beginning to retrain Taliban combatants. In adopting the trappings of a conventional army, they have made their men wear uniform and held military parades. The aim is to show neighbouring countries that the Taliban government is running a real state with appropriate standards for its security forces. Impacts Neighbouring states will be reassured by an army that resembles its predecessor and has no real capabilities beyond domestic security. The Taliban have limited capacity to absorb and use new equipment for now, even if some donor were willing to provide it. Limited help may be available: Chinese, Russian and Pakistan military trainers and advisers are reportedly present.


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