EU agreement will increase concerns about Italian debt

Subject EU-Italy tension. Significance On April 9 the Eurogroup (EU finance ministers) reached an agreement worth 550 billion euros (602 billion dollars) to help governments and businesses deal with the immediate impact of COVID-19. However, they failed to agree on a recovery package, which has been the main source of tension between northern and southern member states, in particular creating conflict between the Netherlands and Italy. The incomplete nature of the agreement, coupled with the negative political reaction in Italy, has alarmed the markets. Impacts Differing COVID-19 reconstruction requirements across the EU will make it more difficult to reach a consolidated recovery plan. Italy has little leverage to press for what it wants from the Eurogroup, as conflict with other euro-area members would alarm investors. The ECB may be inclined to do everything it can to help Italy, knowing the potential political impacts of forcing Rome to use the ESM.

Subject Germany's EU presidency. Significance Germany will assume the six-month EU rotating presidency on July 1. The presidency will give Berlin greater influence in setting the European Council’s agenda and finding compromise between member states. Its standout priority will be to foster a compromise agreement on the EU’s recovery plan and 2021-27 budget. Impacts Any conditionality or ‘structural’ reforms associated with the EU recovery plan will be negatively received in Italy. To keep relations with China stable, Germany will focus on cooperation on mutual interests, such as COVID-19 and climate change. Germany could remain committed to fiscal expansion beyond the pandemic if the Greens are in the next government in 2021.


Subject London euro-clearing post-Brexit. Significance The European Commission released draft legislation on June 13 proposing the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) supervise non-EU-based clearing houses that are deemed systemically important, in effect giving the EU the power to insist euro-clearing remains in the bloc after Brexit. On June 23, the ECB proposed a “significantly enhanced” role for the ECB in euro-clearing. Forcing euro-clearing into the euro-area shows the bloc puts protecting its own interests before globalisation, also suggesting that the post-Brexit EU may increasingly prioritise political imperatives over economic ones, and become less open to international business. Impacts The draft law will affect New York and Tokyo, which will gain from London if European finance becomes more fragmented. If passed, the law will give the ESMA strong powers to determine the geography of EU finance. Such political direction could cause tensions as not all EU member states are likely to welcome it.


Subject Euro-area unity. Significance A serious divergence has emerged between northern and southern EU states over how to respond to the economic impact of COVID-19. At least nine mainly southern members want a consolidated euro-area fiscal response through the issuance of Eurobonds -- a shared debt instrument -- but they face strong opposition from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, who fear they may have to underwrite the debts of poorer countries. Failure to resolve this dispute could result in a euro-area crisis and undermine broader EU unity. Impacts Eurobonds should lower the spread between Italian and German bonds as they would make Italy’s public finances more easily sustainable. A Eurobond issuance could slow the rise of populists in some poorer countries by giving governments greater capacity to deal with COVID-19. A deeper and longer-term economic crisis caused by COVID-19 could expose Europe further to influence from Russia and China.


Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.


Significance This could create an alternative benchmark safe-haven asset to rival German Bunds within the region. As part of its issuance plans, the EU intends to issue at least EUR50bn in green bonds annually, which is likely to make it the world’s largest issuer of these bonds. Impacts The increased importance of EU bonds over time will help to support the euro's value and could eventually put pressure on the dollar. The EU is leading the world in green bond issuance, but the risk of spurious environmental claims (‘greenwashing’) must be managed. The creation of new EU bonds will help reduce the funding costs of riskier euro-area members such as Italy.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dmytro S. Melnyk ◽  
Oleg A. Parfylo ◽  
Oleksii V. Butenko ◽  
Olena V. Tykhonova ◽  
Volodymyr O. Zarosylo

Purpose The experience of most European Union (EU) Member States has demonstrated effective anti-corruption practices, making the EU one of the leaders in this field, which can be used as an example to learn from in the field of anti-corruption. The purpose of this study is to analyze and identify the main features of anti-corruption legislation and strategies to prevent corruption at the national and supranational levels of the EU. Design/methodology/approach The following methods were used in the work: discourse and content analysis, method of system analysis, method of induction and deduction, historical-legal method, formal-legal method, comparative-legal method and others. Using the historical and legal method, the evolution of the formation of anti-corruption regulation at the supranational level was revealed. The comparative law method helped to compare the practices of the Member States of the EU in the field of anti-corruption regulation. The formal-legal method is used for generalization, classification and systematization of research results, as well as for the correct presentation of these results. Findings The main results, prospects for further research and the value of the material. The paper offers a critical review of key EU legal instruments on corruption, from the first initiatives taken in the mid-1990s to recent years. Originality/value In addition, the article analyzes the relevant anti-corruption legislation in the EU member states that are in the top 10 countries with the lowest level of corruption, namely: Denmark, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg.


Author(s):  
Agnieszka Smoleńska

AbstractCross-border banking presents a unique set of challenges in the EU from the perspective of arranging administrative oversight structures. Structuring cooperation between different EU and national authorities in a way which is conducive to trust-building and mutual engagement is an essential condition for overcoming disintegrative tendencies in the internal market. To assess how the existing EU arrangements fare in this regard in the context of EU resolution law, this article comparatively analyses the different models of multilevel administrative cooperation in the post-crisis EU framework. These are specifically the centralised model of the European Banking Union (Single Resolution Mechanism) and the relatively looser networked model of the resolution colleges. The multilevel cooperation under both models is nuanced given the distinct roles of the national resolution authorities, EU agencies and the differentiated status of non-euro area Member States in the EBU (Croatia, Bulgaria). The article’s findings allow to identify specific problems of constitutional nature pertaining to the accountability of administrative cooperation, equality of Member States and the implications of Meroni doctrine’s distortive effects.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marijke Welisch ◽  
Gustav Resch ◽  
André Ortner

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to provide estimation results for feasibility of renewable energy source (RES) deployment in Turkey, the Western Balkans and North Africa. From these results, the potential for cooperation in renewables production between the countries and the European Union (EU) is assessed and evaluated, in a mid- (2030) and long-term (up to 2040) perspective. Design/methodology/approach The authors focus on the quantitative assessments undertaken on the extent to which RES cooperation can create mutual benefits, identifying costs and benefits for both sides, but in particular with respect to RES target achievement (2020 and 2030) at EU level. The potentials for RES generation in Turkey, North Africa and the Western Balkans are calculated under different policy pathways, taking into account different levels of economic and non-economic barriers that could occur. Findings Overall, the authors found that increasing RES deployment in the three analysed regions and initiating or intensifying cooperation with EU28 Member States leads to mutual benefits. Concretely, these benefits become apparent in terms of the EU Member States importing renewable energy sources for electricity with a good resource quality and adding on to their targets for RES deployment. At the same time, substantial savings occur for the EU, in turn leading to income and investments in the cooperating regions. Originality/value The assessment underlying this paper is the first of its kind to the authors’ knowledge that opens up the geographical spread in comparison to merely assessing cooperation between Europe and the Middle East and North Africa. Furthermore, the multitude of policy parameters analysed provides detailed and robust insights concerning a broad variety of different possible scenarios.


2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 295-311
Author(s):  
Matilde Lafuente-Lechuga ◽  
Úrsula Faura-Martínez ◽  
Olga García-Luque

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show evidence of the divergence of welfare outcomes in the European Union (EU) during the economic crisis, which made the European social model fail, and the convergence among European countries halt. This study reviews Sapir’s model for classifying European welfare state systems and adapts it to the new reality, taking into account Europe 2020 targets on poverty reduction and employment growth. Design/methodology/approach Two variables are used in the application of Sapir’s graphical analysis to European social models: the employment rate as efficiency indicator, and the people At Risk Of Poverty and/or Exclusion rate as equity indicator. Both efficiency and equity are present in Europe 2020 targets. In addition, a cluster analysis is applied. Findings The division of EU member states into four geopolitical social models has proved to be dynamic, changing in the period under analysis. As a consequence of the economic crisis and the fiscal consolidation, efficiency and equity levels across the EU are polarised between the Mediterranean and the Nordic models. Originality/value This paper shows the effects of the economic crisis in the EU, analysing the evolution between 2008 and 2014, and incorporating Eastern Europe new member states into the analysis.


Author(s):  
Menelaos Markakis

This chapter looks at the crisis-induced legal, institutional, and economic developments within the Economic and Monetary Union. It consists of two parts. First, there will be a brief sketch of the crisis-related developments. These include the setting-up of financial mechanisms, the European Central Bank’s interventions to combat the crisis, the enhanced oversight of national fiscal and economic policy, and the increased supervision over the financial sector. Second, there will be a ‘first assessment’ of their constitutional and structural implications. Two sets of issues will be examined here: issues of legal principle; and the bearing of the enacted measures on European economic integration. Three key arguments will be made in this chapter. First, it will be argued that the measures enacted have led to legislative fragmentation and have exacerbated problems of transparency and complexity which already existed in this area. Second, it will be shown that the chosen form of action has consequences for institutional balance in the EU, democratic control, and judicial review. Third, it will be argued that the enactment of measures which are only applicable to Euro area Member States has served to deepen economic integration within the Euro area and to further differentiate it from economic integration in non-Euro area Member States. Further, certain areas of the single market have integrated more deeply in the Euro area. It will be concluded that the various reforms which have been implemented have strengthened the EU economic governance framework from a legal, institutional, and economic perspective.


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