Brazil's Bolsonaro fighting for political survival

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Coup ◽  
Director General ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Political Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Police Investigations ◽  
The Government

Significance Moro left the government after President Jair Bolsonaro sacked the director-general of the Federal Police, Mauricio Valeixo. In his resignation speech, Moro accused Bolsonaro of seeking to interfere politically in Federal Police investigations. Moro’s departure came after nine hectic days in which Bolsonaro ousted his popular health minister amid the COVID-19 epidemic, took part in a rally in support of a military coup and actively undermined his finance minister. Impacts Bolsonaro’s economically liberal agenda is dead. Moro has in effect launched a 2022 presidential bid, in which he would compete in a crowded conservative space. Bolsonaro’s impeachment or resignation now appears an increasing possibility.

The South African public service wage bill deadlock in 2021: living on the edge

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Government

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

Power crisis to hamper Zambia development prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Avoidance ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Growth Environment ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Price Hike ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for Zambia's economy. Significance Finance Minister Alexander Chikwanda last month presented revisions to the 2015 budget. They reflected the cooling growth environment, lower-than-expected tax revenues and rising borrowing costs. Droughts have exacerbated these vulnerabilities by pressuring Zambia's hydroelectric power supplies. Economic prospects are weakened ahead of elections scheduled for September 2016. Impacts Riots that took place in the main tourist hub Livingstone over the fuel price hike could hit visitor numbers if repeated. Revenue woes will harden the government's stance on tax avoidance, raising tensions with miners. The government may use the Sustainable Development Goals summit to press for greater donor aid, citing its revenue crunch.

Zimbabwe faces uphill task normalising donor relations

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
External Debt ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Donor Relations ◽  
Labour Costs ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Zimbabwe economic outlook. Significance On November 26 Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa presented the 2016 budget articulating the government's IMF-backed plan to clear the backlog of external debt arrears to international creditors. The aim is to normalise relations with Western donors after 15 years of isolation. The government faces a deepening employment crisis, an unfunded development plan and deflationary risks. Impacts The Labour Amendment Bill adopted in August will raise labour costs and discourage job creation. Some deals signed during Xi's visit such as funding for fibre optic broadband may improve long-term competitiveness. However, others such as an agreement for a new Chinese-built parliament will add to the debt load.

Pakistan’s Sharif may call snap polls to save future

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Joint Investigation ◽  
Political Impact ◽  
The Government

Subject The political impact of the 'Panamagate' scandal. Significance A five-member Supreme Court bench on April 20 ordered the constitution of a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to probe the legitimacy of the offshore assets (mostly in the United Kingdom and Qatar) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family. In coming months, the Court bench will monitor and oversee the investigation in which both civilian law enforcement and military intelligence will participate. Impacts The government will avoid challenging the military’s foreign policy this year. The scandal will increase pressure on the political elite to ensure public probity. A military coup is highly improbable at present.

Thailand’s junta will face new governing pressures

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Biometric Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
The Government

Significance This is an early move back towards elected politics following the mid-2014 military coup, and comes as recent corruption allegations, the possibility of a fifth cabinet reshuffle and concerns about the outlook for Thailand’s labour market are raising new questions about the NCPO government’s competence. This also comes as Thailand looks to a general election by November 2018 for which the NCPO may form a political party. Impacts Inadequacies in collecting biometric data for fisheries workers could draw renewed EU scrutiny and criticism. A cabinet reshuffle will not slow Thailand’s recent gains in economic growth. Media self-censorship means corruption allegations will likely not have a great negative impact on the government. Investor confidence is unlikely to be affected by corruption allegations in the short term.

Economic crisis will sustain unrest in Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Civil Servants ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Fund Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sovereign Credit Rating

Significance Discontent over President Robert Mugabe's mismanagement of the economy is deepening, particularly over high unemployment and severe cash shortages, which have caused the government to delay paying civil servants' salaries. Impacts Pretoria's demands that Harare drop its restrictions on South African imports will likely increase bilateral tensions. Smugglers will take advantage of the region's porous borders to circumvent these rules, eg by routing goods via Mozambique. The mines and minerals amendment bill, which requires mining firms to list on the local bourse, will likely deter investment. Tensions between Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa and leftist ministers could result in further policy reversals. Plans to gain a sovereign credit rating and issue Eurobonds to fund development will remain unrealised, at least for several years.

India backs blockchain but adoption will be cautious

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Trade Finance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Customer Data ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Blockchain Technology ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Exchanges

Subject Blockchain adoption in India. Significance On April 22 the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) issued a directive ordering all cryptocurrency accounts on Indian exchanges to close by July. Despite this, on May 16 Indian information technology giant Infosys, in collaboration with seven major banks, launched a blockchain-driven trade finance initiative. In his budget speech, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the government will “explore …blockchain technology …for ushering in digital economy”. Impacts The ban on trading cryptocurrencies on Indian exchanges will drive investors to foreign exchanges rather than away from the asset class. The RBI ban on entities under its influence engaging in services relating to cryptocurrencies will slow blockchain adoption. Tests of blockchain in trade finance, 'know your customer' data and non-performing asset management will extend to other applications. Indian cities including Vizag in Andhra Pradesh are leading in adopting blockchain, supporting regional development.

Disputed Zimbabwe poll will delay re-engagement

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Poor ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Democratic Change

Significance Mnangagwa narrowly avoided a second-round run-off with 50.8% of the vote, but opposition presidential candidate Nelson Chamisa of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Alliance has denounced the result as fraudulent. Post-poll violence has resulted in at least six deaths, with evidence mounting of state-sponsored suppression of MDC activists and the urban poor. Impacts Widening military divisions will create risks of regime instability and a potential second military coup. Backroom negotiating on a transitional unity government could intensify, although this may prompt intra-opposition divisions. With a two-thirds parliamentary majority, Mnangagwa could push to abolish term limits but would face sizable opposition from party rivals. Despite failing to be elected to parliament, Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa may be re-appointed to shore up international support.

Rising crime will test Uganda’s security sector

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Police Investigations ◽  
The Government

Significance The identities and motives of the attackers remain contested, and police investigations are ongoing. However, two opposition legislators have been charged in connection with the murders, although the charges are widely seen as politically motivated. Impacts Growing insecurity will provide fodder for opposition critiques of the government. The government’s crumbling legitimacy will undermine efforts to persuade Ugandans to rally behind the flag on security issues. The fragile post-pandemic economy may face more shocks as perceptions of instability discourage investment.

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