Rising crime will test Uganda’s security sector

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Police Investigations ◽  
The Government

Significance The identities and motives of the attackers remain contested, and police investigations are ongoing. However, two opposition legislators have been charged in connection with the murders, although the charges are widely seen as politically motivated. Impacts Growing insecurity will provide fodder for opposition critiques of the government. The government’s crumbling legitimacy will undermine efforts to persuade Ugandans to rally behind the flag on security issues. The fragile post-pandemic economy may face more shocks as perceptions of instability discourage investment.

Mozambique party politics may trump national interest

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Security Sector Reform ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Fiscal Pressure ◽  
Broad Consensus

Significance There is broad consensus that security sector reform is necessary, but lingering concern that the government lacks a coherent plan, and will end up being distracted by other issues. Impacts The economic crisis resulting from the debt crisis will continue to put the government under severe fiscal pressure. Small amounts of gas should begin to be exported in 2022, but uncertainty over the timelines for larger projects will persist. Mozambique’s relations with neighbours should continue to improve over the immediate term.

Central African Republic peace deal faces risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Technical Assistance ◽  
Security Sector Reform ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Armed Violence ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for the Central African Republic's peace process. Significance Three months after signing a peace agreement with the country’s main armed groups, President Faustin-Archange Touadera continues to emphasise his commitment to the deal. However, some rebel groups have denounced the government’s concessions as insufficient. For their part, rebels seem more interested in further negotiations than implementing peace. This raises the risks that the flaws in the agreement could become increasingly exposed. Impacts Armed violence will likely continue until the new government is respected by all parties, which may prove challenging to achieve. A sustainable transition to peace will require credible measures for restorative justice, security-sector reform and economic recovery. The government will look to secure more financial and technical assistance from its regional and international partners.

Nigeria poll signals profound political shift

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Support ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Leadership Role ◽  
Security Sector Reform ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Sector Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Leadership ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance This is the first time that an opposition party has won a multi-party election in Nigeria. Popular support has never before trumped the advantages of incumbency which have historically been used to rig or win elections. The impartiality of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the clear margin of victory give a strong and legitimate mandate to the incoming government. Impacts After pulling off a credible election in difficult circumstances, Nigeria may seek to re-assume its moral regional leadership role. The government and armed forces will be given renewed confidence to tackle Boko Haram, possibly with more international support. Policy focus will have similarities (eg electricity and agriculture) but also differences (eg youth employment and security sector reform). Without being hampered by corruption and low public support, the APC should be better placed to deliver.

Police activity in Tunisia may hinder transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Sharp Focus ◽  
The Government ◽  
Police Activity

Subject Tunisia's police service. Significance Elements of the state security sector have been acting autonomously from the state since the Arab uprisings. The threat of terrorism continues to facilitate this trajectory, and parliamentary and presidential elections planned for 2019 could bring the issue into sharp focus. Impacts Increased terrorist attacks may prompt the government to allow the police greater leeway when investigating suspects. Victims of police mistreatment are unlikely to secure justice. Increased terrorist attacks may lead to legislation to strengthen the security forces’ ability to avoid transparency.

Maduro risks mounting militarisation in Venezuela

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
General Assembly ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
American States ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
The Government

Significance It is as yet unclear whether the police officer in question acted alone, although he apparently once worked for former Interior and Justice Minister Miguel Rodriguez Torres, who, the government claims, is linked to the CIA and whose arrest has reportedly been ordered. The death toll in ongoing anti-government protests continues to rise, now totalling an estimated 75 since April. The failure of the Organization of American States (OAS) to agree a resolution on Venezuela at its General Assembly has emboldened Caracas while demonstrating the inability of the regional body to determine a course of action that can help to resolve the country’s political crisis. Impacts Violence will continue as the opposition relies on protests to weaken the government and erode participation in the assembly elections. Each protest-related death is serving to entrench a paralysing cycle of demonstration and repression. As the OAS flounders, the United States will likely move unilaterally to impose new sanctions on Venezuelan officials. Changes to military figures in the government will deepen political rifts between different elements and factions in the security sector. Yesterday's attack suggests that, in the event of a serious military intervention, this would be violent and bloody.

Returning jihadis raise Tunisians' anxiety

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Subject Foreign fighters' impact on security. Significance Between 3,000-6,000 Tunisians have left to fight alongside jihadist organisations abroad since 2011, many of them in the neighbouring Libya. The possibility of their return has caused domestic anxiety and tension, triggering protests and controversy. Impacts The government will likely seek to tighten security, especially in the border areas. However, excessive force and human rights violations could radicalise the local populations. Public expenditure in the security sector will increase, as well as defence contracts with foreign countries.

Syrian intelligence will play a major post-war role

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Sector ◽  
Intelligence Agency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Intelligence Agencies ◽  
The Government ◽  
Post War ◽  
International Engagement ◽  
Reconciliation Process

Subject The role of Syrian intelligence agencies. Significance In the process of recapturing territory, President Bashar al-Assad’s government is concurrently re-establishing its administration, including policing and what it labels ‘security’. Before the conflict, the different components of the security sector, including police and intelligence agencies, were crucial in maintaining regime control. The war has changed their relationships, organisational arrangements and connection to the government. The intelligence agencies have risen in prominence, becoming central to the so-called ‘reconciliation’ process, currently ongoing, and to the regime’s future governance plans. Impacts Intelligence agency chiefs are unlikely to face prosecution domestically or internationally for what almost certainly constitute war crimes. International engagement (whether humanitarian, business, political or cultural) will require an acceptance of the security services' role. Intelligence agencies will use their part in the reconciliation process to expunge the legacy of opposition institutions. If the government captures Idlib, intelligence agencies' role will be determined by agreements with Russia and Turkey.

Brazil's Bolsonaro fighting for political survival

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Coup ◽  
Director General ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Political Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Police Investigations ◽  
The Government

Significance Moro left the government after President Jair Bolsonaro sacked the director-general of the Federal Police, Mauricio Valeixo. In his resignation speech, Moro accused Bolsonaro of seeking to interfere politically in Federal Police investigations. Moro’s departure came after nine hectic days in which Bolsonaro ousted his popular health minister amid the COVID-19 epidemic, took part in a rally in support of a military coup and actively undermined his finance minister. Impacts Bolsonaro’s economically liberal agenda is dead. Moro has in effect launched a 2022 presidential bid, in which he would compete in a crowded conservative space. Bolsonaro’s impeachment or resignation now appears an increasing possibility.

Pre-election woes are rising in Trinidad and Tobago

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Police Investigations ◽  
New Information ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts

Subject Fall-out from the recent scandals affecting the cabinet. Significance Just months before a general election is due, the government of Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar is in turmoil owing to a scandal involving former attorney-general Anand Ramlogan and ex-minister of national security Gary Griffith, both implicated in witness tampering allegations. The prime minister removed both men from office, and then undertook a wider cabinet reshuffle. Impacts The government may yet recover, with more than six months until general elections must be held. However, public spending cuts are likely to undermine recovery and the government's approval. Police investigations could reveal new information that damages the government's credibility further.

Libya unity government will probably prolong its term

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Main Task ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Is Security ◽  
The Government

Significance The Government of National Accord in Tripoli had handed over power on March 16. The ceremony means Libya now has its first unified government since 2014. The new government has a short mandate: its main task is to hold national elections on December 24. However, it faces many challenges, including ensuring that a constitutional framework exists for such an election and that there is security for it to take place. Impacts Dbeibah’s decision to keep the defence portfolio himself demonstrates the sensitivity of security issues. Infrastructure development may be the key way for Dbeibah to generate popular support and build a patronage network. The government may expedite oil infrastructure programmes in order to increase production and use the proceeds.

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