Post-pandemic recovery will be protracted in Peru

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Borrowing ◽  
Business Policies ◽  
Social Recovery ◽  
Poverty Levels

Significance Peru’s previously buoyant economy has been badly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, contracting by around 13.38% in the first ten months of this year. Investment has been hit, as have employment and poverty levels. With a ballooning fiscal deficit, Peru is being forced to rely on foreign borrowing to cover much-needed public investment. Impacts Peru will remain credit-worthy over the medium term despite Fitch's outlook downgrade to negative yesterday. Political opposition to pro-business policies will gain force. Social recovery will be particularly slow to materialise.

Peruvian growth will again disappoint this year

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Level ◽  
Poverty Levels ◽  
Roll Back

Subject Outlook for Peruvian growth. Significance With both external and domestic demand ebbing in the first few months of 2019, forecasters are reducing their estimates for GDP growth in 2019. Peru is exposed to a slowdown in growth in China, since it is by far its biggest export market and the main source of foreign investment. Public investment also appears to be slower than in previous years. Impacts Slower growth will impact negatively on employment and risk pushing up poverty levels. Business groups will increase their pressure on government to roll back social legislation on matters like labour stability. The relatively high level of reserves will cushion Peru from balance of payments pressures.

Ivorian fiscal consolidation plans face multiple risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Growth Spurt ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiple Risks ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Subject Ivory Coast economic update. Significance The post-civil war growth spurt is expected to taper to around 7% per annum over the medium-term, from an average of 9% during 2012-16. While this partly reflects a gradual slowdown in productivity, it also underscores the influence of public investment on Ivory Coast's growth. With public investment expected to decline, the most likely source of near-term growth is foreign direct investment (FDI), which picked up last year, albeit from a low base. Impacts Government revenues may decline as petrol taxes are reduced to absorb the impact on pump prices of a recent spike in oil prices. Ivory Coast-Ghana proposals on synchronising cocoa production will likely be overshadowed by smuggling and a lack of political will. Apart from Niger, all countries in WAEMU will meet the bloc's fiscal targets on time.

Investment will be key for continuing Polish growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The Government

Subject The second phase of the government's reform agenda. Significance The closing months of 2016 promise to be busy as the government pushes several pieces of legislation through parliament, in line with election promises. These include the long-awaited bill on converting foreign-currency mortgages denominated in Swiss francs and a revised budget for 2017. Impacts The fiscal deficit is likely to be contained within the EU's 3% limit in 2016-17 but rise beyond that threshold in 2018. Until infrastructure-led investment takes effect, low interest rates and a strong labour market may help private consumption support growth. As more state-owned companies look to invest in ageing infrastructure, public investment will become a key growth driver after 2018.

Corruption scandal claims new victims in Peru

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Ruling Elites ◽  
Growth Prospects

Significance The economic and political impacts from the Odebrecht bribery scandal are beginning to make themselves felt. As well as hitting President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s popularity rating, the scandal has further reinforced public distrust in the country’s ruling elites. It is also negatively affecting this year’s growth prospects. Impacts Odebrecht and other Brazilian construction companies will find themselves excluded in Peru, opening opportunities for others. The bribery upset will lead to a slowdown in infrastructure investment in the short-to-medium term. There may have to be a major shake-up in the workings of agencies that oversee public investment bidding.

Nigeria free trade agreement benefits should win out

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Food Processing ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Political Opposition ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
New Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food And Beverage

Subject Nigeria joins AfCFTA. Significance After over a year of consultations and deliberations, President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration on July 7 finally signed up to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). Despite some valid concerns from local industry and ongoing political opposition, Buhari followed the recent recommendations of a government-commissioned committee. Impacts Over the medium term, Nigerian consumers should benefit from cheaper imports in areas such as the food and beverage sectors. The industrial sector will see some reorganisation, with competitive sectors looking to expand their capacity to tap into new markets. Several sectors (such as poultry or food processing) will likely undergo productivity enhancing reorganisation amid new competition threats.

Funding questions shadow Nigeria's new economic path

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Single Digit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Debt Levels

Subject The incoming administration's economic promises. Significance Investor and popular confidence in the incoming Muhammadu Buhari administration are high. The new president's perceived incorruptibility is seen as the antidote to President Goodluck Jonathan's ineffectiveness. However, a lack of clarity over how the All Progressives Congress (APC) can fund its economic policies remains a source of uncertainty, compounded by low oil prices. Impacts Nigeria's debt levels are relatively low, although the government may be forced to dramatically increase borrowing. However, the sharp devaluation of the currency will complicate the CBN's goal of maintaining single-digit inflation over the medium term. Slowing non-oil sector growth reflects the depreciation of the oil-linked naira and curbed public investment.

Even if politicians deal, Lebanon faces a bleak future

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Financial Strain ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Food Shortages

Significance The audit and wider structural economic reforms are preconditions for urgently needed foreign aid. Economic conditions in Lebanon are still worsening, with power cuts, food shortages and rising poverty. Impacts A new government would allow reform planning to resume and temporarily stall the decline of the currency. The easing of the global pandemic will somewhat reduce the financial strain, as Lebanon reopens its economy. Soaring poverty rates could provoke large-scale ‘bread riots’ in the coming months. Further devaluation of the currency will make poor Lebanese more dependent on sectarian protection and strengthen patronage. If the situation worsens, sectarian rural areas could revert to warlordism in the medium term.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

Building entrepreneurial capacity in rural areas

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 903-918
Author(s):  
Anna Krakowiak-Bal ◽  
Urszula Ziemianczyk ◽  
Andrzej Wozniak
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Important Criterion ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Ahp Method ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to verify the development of economic activities in rural areas in terms of their public infrastructural equipment. Design/methodology/approach As a case study, the Polish rural areas were selected. A two-stage survey was conducted in 2015. The first stage involved entrepreneurs from rural areas. The second stage of survey was data collection for rural areas regarding economic activity and infrastructural equipment. In total, 121 objects (communes) were selected. The multicriteria analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used for the analysis. Findings The results demonstrate that for each kind of business, communication accessibility is the most important criterion. By contrast, environmental awareness and concern for the environment is the least important element for pursuit of the economic activity in rural areas. Research limitations/implications Limitations are connected mainly with the applied AHP method. The number of the comparable elements at the same hierarchy level is limited due to practical purposes. In addition, an assumption of full comparability of elements (criteria and alternatives) in the hierarchy model can be discussed. Furthermore, data quality and availability limit the scope of the empirical work. This study is a major simplification of reality modeling, but it gives practical benefits by simplifying the decision support procedure. Practical implications The findings of this paper contribute to the advancing theory of local development, with public infrastructure being one of its basic elements (factor of production). This paper explores the importance of physical infrastructure for different economic activities, and thus offers theoretical insights in two areas. First, this paper indicates the uneven weight of each infrastructure element for the various business sectors. Second, based on the collected data, this study also contributes to the literature, by using the AHP method to explore the relationships between infrastructural equipment and economic activity in rural areas. As the practical implication for local and regional development policies, this study indicates, that the most important criterion for each kind of economic activity is communication accessibility. This kind of public investment should be undertaken primarily to support entrepreneurship, especially in rural areas. Originality/value The uniqueness of the method lies in assumption about the uneven weights of infrastructure elements and therefore their impact on the process of ranking the objects (rural areas). The weight of individual infrastructure elements will vary depending on the kind of economic activity; therefore, the way of ordering will also be different for each economic activity.

scholarly journals Government public infrastructure investment and economic performance in Spain (1980-2016)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Perez-Montiel ◽  
Carles Manera
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Communities ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Acyclic Graphs ◽  
Multiplier Effects

Purpose The authors estimate the multiplier effect of government public infrastructure investment in Spain. This paper aims to use annual data of the 17 Spanish autonomous communities for the 1980–2016 period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use dynamic acyclic graphs and the heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (P-SVAR) method of Pedroni (2013). This method is robust to cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence, which are present in the data. Findings The findings suggest that an increase in the level of government public infrastructure investment generates a positive and persistent effect on the level of output. Five years after the fiscal expansion, the multiplier effects of government public infrastructure investment reach values above one. This confirms that government public infrastructure investment expansions have Keynesian effects. The authors also find that the multiplier effects differ between autonomous communities with above-average and below-average GDP per capita. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no research uses dynamic acyclic graphs and heterogeneous P-SVAR techniques to estimate fiscal multipliers of government public investment in Spain by using subnational data.

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