Peruvian growth will again disappoint this year

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Level ◽  
Poverty Levels ◽  
Roll Back

Subject Outlook for Peruvian growth. Significance With both external and domestic demand ebbing in the first few months of 2019, forecasters are reducing their estimates for GDP growth in 2019. Peru is exposed to a slowdown in growth in China, since it is by far its biggest export market and the main source of foreign investment. Public investment also appears to be slower than in previous years. Impacts Slower growth will impact negatively on employment and risk pushing up poverty levels. Business groups will increase their pressure on government to roll back social legislation on matters like labour stability. The relatively high level of reserves will cushion Peru from balance of payments pressures.

Real GDP growth will be slower in Georgia in 2015

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Caucasus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Important Trading Partner ◽  
Remittance Flows

Subject Worsening economic prospects in 2015. Significance Georgia has already started to be affected by the substantial deterioration in Russia's economic performance and the steep depreciation of the ruble against major currencies, particularly in the final quarter of 2014. Russia became Georgia's third-most-important trading partner in 2014, and remittance flows from Russia are an important source of foreign exchange. Currencies in the Caucasus and Central Asia have faced depreciation pressures, with Turkmenistan forced to devalue its currency on January 1, followed by Azerbaijan on February 21. Impacts Domestic demand will fall this year, as remittance flows weaken. The devaluation of Azerbaijan's manat in late February will have a negative impact on exports, as it is Georgia's top export market. If Western sanctions against Russia are not lifted in July, as expected, this will worsen the outlook for the Georgian economy.

Prospects for Central Europe in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Baltic

Subject Prospects for Central Europe in 2019. Significance After a strong cyclical upswing since 2014, the economies of Central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) will experience more modest rates of GDP growth. A mix of base effects, stronger inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy is expected to drive this trend, but domestic demand and public investment will remain key supports to GDP.

Thai junta's 2015 growth forecast to prove optimistic

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Export Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Military ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject 2015 economic outlook. Significance According to the Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office, GDP growth slowed to between 1.2% and 1.7% in 2014 from 2.9% in 2013. Data released by the Bank of Thailand on December 30 suggest that the final figure is likely to be at the lower end of the range. Recovery in the fourth quarter was modest (at an estimated 1.0%) against 0.6% in the third. The military-backed government forecasts 4.1% GDP growth this year, assuming more tourists, higher domestic demand, export growth and rapid implementation of infrastructure plans. Impacts Sluggish growth will intensify calls for elections, but the junta will not relent, especially until the royal transition has been secured. The 2014 coup may not be the last; this will maintain the long-term contractual risks for investors. Political instability could return by end-2015, dampening household consumption.

Bolivia economy to perform strongly in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Supply Contract ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Gas Supply ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Bolivia's economic outlook. Significance Bolivia continues to buck the trend in terms of Latin American growth rates, with official expectations for growth this year of 4.7%, somewhat more than in 2016. Inflation is expected to remain at modest levels of around 4%. As in previous years since the collapse of gas prices, domestic demand will be the motor of growth. Impacts Levels of public investment will remain far higher than in most Latin American countries. Exports should stabilise this year, albeit at rates well below those of the 'super-cycle' years. A new gas-supply contract will need to be negotiated with Brazil over the course of the next year.

Weak economy prompts foreign outreach in Mongolia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Text Message ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Legal Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Mining Projects ◽  
The Government

Significance GDP growth has slowed from a peak of 17.5% in 2011 to around 7.0% last year. Foreign investment, which has driven growth, has fallen steeply and external conditions have weakened. Legislative moves to revive interest have had little to no effect. The government in Ulan Bator is talking to the IMF about possible assistance, and Mongolians have been polled by text message in a bid to confirm popular support for getting crucial mining projects moving again. Impacts Ulan Bator has to address the recent jailing of foreign nationals and the negative impact on Mongolia's image. The text message referendum suggests refinement is needed to make future initiatives in direct democracy credible. Criticism of the legal process leading to imprisonment of former mining executives could result in changes to the law.

Indonesian reform plans may boost economy longer-term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Institutional Reform ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Power Balance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence

Subject Jokowi's reform packages. Significance President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo last week announced the first of three economic packages designed to re-invigorate the economy and attract foreign investment. The remaining two packages will be announced later this month and in November respectively. Similar packages have been devised by past administrations, but to little effect. To gain investor confidence, Jokowi will need to specify how his administration intends to implement its plans. Impacts Financial market volatility will continue until US monetary policy begins to normalise (probably no earlier than December). The power balance in Jokowi's cabinet militates against institutional reform. Policies to boost infrastructure development promise longer-term gain, but little boost to 2015 GDP growth.

Brexit may take some heat out of the UK housing market

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Social Housing ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Green Belts

Subject The UK housing market. Significance The UK Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government set out its objectives on May 23 to deliver a net 300,000 dwellings per year in England by end-2022. This attempt to dampen house prices may have a small effect, but underlying fundamentals will be much more important. Moreover, house prices are only one side of the 'affordability coin' and constraints on income growth are just as relevant. Impacts Increasingly unaffordable housing in the South East outside of London could cost the Conservatives support among their core voters. Labour is likely to push for greater public investment in social housing and more autonomy for local councils to finance such investment. Restrictions on buy-to-let mortgages and foreign investment in real estate could gain greater traction in public debate. Planning restrictions are likely to be loosened as the government pursues its annual target and parts of 'green belts' could be lost.

Domestic demand will drive Belgium’s GDP growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Business Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Government ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Government Deficit

Significance Belgium’s competitiveness has been undermined by the indexation of wages to inflation and its GDP growth has trailed that of the euro-area since 2015. However, a tax and economic reform package implemented since 2016 has contributed to a pickup in growth in 2017-18. Impacts Business investment is expected to be the fastest-growing component of GDP growth. The National Bank of Belgium estimates that the tax reform will add 1.2% to GDP and allow the creation of more than 50,000 jobs in 2016-20. The reform package is mostly self-financed, so the general government deficit is expected to stay around 1.0-1.5% of GDP in 2018-19. The 2019 elections could derail the reform process if forming a coalition proves difficult or if parties' policy priorities diverge.

Germany’s trade surplus benefits the euro-area

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Eu

Subject Germany’s trade surplus. Significance Germany runs a large trade surplus with other euro-area countries and the rest of the world. Critics have argued that wages in Germany have not increased enough in recent years and that the country should boost domestic demand. However, trade and wage developments with other euro-area countries show that such criticism is largely misguided. Impacts Germany’s offshoring of production processes helps boost GDP growth in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Creating a more innovation-friendly environment and investing in R&D would lift the long-term growth potential of the euro-area. Completing the digital single market could contribute to more innovation across the EU.

Fractious Greek coalition may last a year

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Face ◽  
Roll Back

Significance The Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) won the early general election on January 25 and formed a coalition government with a nationalist right-wing party, Independent Greeks (ANEL). The coalition will have the support of 162 members in the 300-seat parliament. The principal policies shared by the parties are to roll back the country's massive debt, which is equivalent to 175% of GDP, and to escape the foreign tutelage implied by the two Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) with Greece's creditors, which stipulate rigorous fiscal and structural reforms in exchange for 240 billion euros (272 billion dollars) in soft bailout loans. Impacts In the public sector, leftist supporters will clamour for jobs in the face of a Syriza platform commitment to introduce hirings on merit. Syriza says it will welcome foreign investment to help restore growth so that Greece can pay its own way and not have to borrow in future. If the takeover of office goes smoothly, Syriza's victory could boost left-of-centre parties in the forthcoming UK and Spanish elections.

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