Digital currencies mark a tectonic shift for banking

Significance Nigeria will be the 15th country to launch a pilot of central bank digital currency (CBDC); China was the first major economy to do so. A further 68 central banks are in the research and development phases that precede a pilot. Impacts China may roll out its CBDC nationwide in 2022, and if so, could force the United States to accelerate its own CBDC project. CBDC projects are fraught with technical and legal difficulties, and planned schedules may not always be held. CBDCs will not compete with non-digital currencies until more major economies disseminate a CBDC. Cash still dominates in many nations and CBDC adoption will be slower where people are reluctant to lose the anonymity of cash payments.

Significance It had threatened to do so during a fortnight of ever more violent rhetoric against South Korea and its president, spearheaded by supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong. Pyongyang now threatens to nullify the 2018 peace accord by reactivating vacant border guard posts and holding military exercises near the Demilitarised Zone. Impacts President Donald Trump’s impulsiveness and a live dispute over history between Seoul and Tokyo hamper a coordinated response. Trump is unlikely to perceive yielding to pressure from Kim as something that will boost his chances of re-election. Tokyo’s recent suspension of a new missile defence project will reduce its ability to protect the United States from North Korean missiles. Increasing hostility between Washington and Beijing may reduce the latter’s willingness to put pressure on Pyongyang.


Subject The spread of media regulation initiatives. Significance Unlike in Europe or the United States, there is an increasingly consolidated trend in Latin America towards media regulation: various governments have pushed for the adoption of new anti-trust rules and the strengthening of executive control over the media. However, there are significant differences in approach across the region. Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil all face challenges in this context. Impacts Disputes between the Argentine government and media may become more raucous as October elections approach. Uruguay's good reputation in terms of media freedom will not be undermined by its new broadcasting law. Brazil needs a new regulatory framework, but doubts over the risk of content controls have delayed it before and may do so again.


Significance Elsewhere in the region, only Panama has so far received a first vaccine shipment, suggesting roll-outs initially will be patchy. Central American governments are sourcing their vaccines either through direct purchases from manufacturers or through programmes run by the World Health Organization (WHO). Impacts A black market is likely to emerge both for vaccines and vaccination certificates. Poorer countries will receive more vaccine support once roll-outs have advanced in wealthier countries globally, but this may take time. Vaccine roll-out in the United States will benefit Central America in terms of tourism, business travel and investment recovery.


Significance Investments in cryptocurrencies in India grew from about USD923mn in April 2020 to nearly USD6.6bn in May 2021, according to industry estimates. More than 15 million Indians are reportedly buying and selling cryptocurrencies, placing the country closer in this regard to the United States, which has 23 million digital currency traders, and ahead of the United Kingdom with 2.3 million. Impacts The government is committed to having a digital currency issued by the Reserve Bank of India. Curbing money laundering and illicit activities will become harder as crypto trading proliferates. Cryptocurrencies will draw investors, especially younger ones, away from traditional safe assets such as gold.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Joseph–Salisbury ◽  
Laura Connelly ◽  
Peninah Wangari-Jones

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to show that racism is not only a US problem. Rather, racism is endemic and pervasive in the UK context, manifesting at every level of policing. From stop and search, to deaths after police contact, the authors highlight long-standing and widespread racist disparities in UK policing. The authors therefore pierce through any delusions of UK “post-racialism” in order to show that, as protesters have reminded us, “the UK is not innocent”.Design/methodology/approachIn this piece, the authors reflect on the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020. Whilst the catalyst was the death of George Floyd in the United States, the authors explore what the protests mean in the UK context. To do so, the authors draw upon recent high-profile examples of police racism, before situating those events within a wider landscape of racist policing.FindingsDemonstrating that UK policing has to be understood as institutionally racist, the authors suggest that responses to police racism need to be radical and uncompromising – tweaks to the system are not enough. The authors therefore look towards defunding and abolition as ways in which one can begin to seek change.Originality/valueThe piece takes up the challenges set by this Black Lives Matter moment and offers a critical take on policing that seeks to push beyond reformism whilst also highlighting the realities of UK racism.


Subject China's plan to blacklist foreign firms for denying supplies to Chinese customers. Significance China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) is responding to US export controls by creating a new tool to punish foreign businesses that curtail supplies to Chinese enterprises for non-commercial reasons: the Unreliable Entity List (UEL). China has not shied away from targeting foreign businesses for political reasons in the past. The UEL gives it a much more powerful tool to do so. Impacts The United States is the target for now, but once in place the UEL can easily be used against other countries. An export control bill now in the works will hasten the decoupling of China and the West. Foreign firms in sensitive sectors may opt to curtail their presence in China preventatively, or curry greater favour with Beijing.


Significance The debate around European defence integration has surfaced periodically over past decades, but progress has fallen short of expectations. Brexit and the elections of Presidents Emmanuel Macron in France and Donald Trump in the United States have given fresh impetus to attempts to strengthen EU cooperation. Impacts Countries such as Italy and Poland will press the EU to devote more resources to their specific security-related challenges. For now, Brexit appears unlikely to affect the strong UK-French industrial arrangements in the defence sector. Defence cooperation will proceed primarily through further research and development cooperation.


Significance Since taking office in January 2019, Bolsonaro's government has guided its international relations by its right-wing ideology. On the global stage, it has aligned itself closely with the Trump administration and had cordial relations with the government of former Argentine President Mauricio Macri, while initially maintaining a pragmatic approach to China, Brazil’s largest trading partner. Impacts Brazil is on a trajectory that will leave it at odds with the United States, China, Europe and Argentina simultaneously. Failure to roll out COVID-19 vaccines rapidly may inhibit Brazilian participation in international conferences when these resume. The agribusiness caucus in Congress will seek to diminish the government’s animosity towards China.


Significance This comes a week after an autonomous Uber vehicle killed a pedestrian in Tempe, Arizona on March 18. Uber had already suspended its testing there (and in Pittsburgh, Toronto and San Francisco) but presumably now it will not be able to restart testing in Arizona until it receives state permission, even if it restarts testing elsewhere. The United States has been leading the push for effective and ubiquitous self-driving vehicles. The fatality raises ethical and policy questions. Impacts The incident may slow roll-out of testing without a safety driver, scheduled to start in California on April 2. This may also bring to the forefront the ethical dilemmas for self-driving cars, which have yet to be settled. Further such fatalities and widespread reporting could shift public opinion against autonomous vehicles.


Significance Its capabilities do not match those of the United States except in a few narrow areas, and may never do so, but they do have increasingly significant strategic implications. Impacts Satellite navigation is the sector with the greatest economic potential for China in the near term. Advances in the development of space weapons make arms control both more urgent and more difficult. Satellite internet and lunar mining are areas of potential China-US competition in the medium and long term respectively. China's lunar programme benefits from more consistent policies than NASA, but suffers from a smaller budget and few international partners.


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