Damascus can manage fragmented military forces

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
General Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Military Forces ◽  
Local Recruitment

Significance President Bashar al-Assad's two principal foreign backers, Russia and Iran, support and to some extent direct sizeable forces in Syria on which Assad relies. That contributes to a complex constellation of pro-Damascus forces, which raises a question over the level of Assad's control. Impacts Military and militia predation on local populations is a general problem, not necessarily tied to specific units. Israeli claims that specific army units provide cover for a growing Hezbollah presence in southern Syria are plausible but hard to prove. Iran-backed militias can offer relatively high salaries, helping their local recruitment campaigns including a recent drive in Deir ez-Zour.

Protests unnerve but do not threaten Angolan regime

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Illegal Immigration ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Domestic Security ◽  
Military Involvement ◽  
Limited Success ◽  
Military Forces

Significance Protests over state brutality, corruption and rising inequality have become more frequent in recent years and increased in intensity since the oil price has dropped. Impacts Efforts to clamp down on unpopular illegal immigration will have limited success due to Angola's porous borders. Military embarrassments in West Africa will dent appetite for foreign military involvement, releasing capacity for domestic security. Activities in Cabinda could exacerbate tensions with neighbours, where military forces cross the border in pursuit of Congolese miners. Western reports on human rights abuses will have little effect on the regime, which prioritises ties with Russia, China and Brazil.

State neglect fosters global illicitly-governed spaces

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Basic Goods ◽  
Economic Aid

Subject The effect of illicitly-governed spaces Significance Spaces where armed groups are equally, or more present than the state often tend to go unnoticed unless they garner media attention with high-profile violence. There, such groups exert authority over local populations and engage in illegal business activities. These operations allow them to accumulate power and resources potentially to stage attacks elsewhere. Targeting these spaces and restoring legitimate governance are necessary to deprive armed groups of social support and end illegal businesses. Impacts Providing basic goods and services would help authorities regain legitimacy in illicitly-governed regions. However, cracking down on illicit activities, such as smuggling, could deprive some communities of their only source of income. Economic aid and development would, therefore, need to accompany any such clampdowns.

Georgia seeks defence help in lieu of NATO accession

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Commitment ◽  
Military Assistance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Ossetia ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Military Forces

Subject Georgia's long wait for NATO accession. Significance The promise of NATO membership made to Georgia in 2008 was again deferred when the alliance held a summit in Warsaw on July 8-9. Georgia has made great efforts to meet the requirements for a Membership Action Plan (MAP), but no substantive progress on adopting one was achieved at the summit. Instead, NATO, while inviting Montenegro to join, offered Georgia expanded assistance to boost its defence capacity. US Secretary of State John Kerry underlined the offer of military assistance on a July 6 visit intended to reinforce Washington's political commitment to Tbilisi. Impacts Georgia will purchase a range of armaments from the United States and Europe. Russia will exploit growing public disillusionment to weaken pro-Western parties in the October elections. Moscow will maintain a firm grip on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, maintaining substantial military forces there.

Russia plans to legalise private military forces

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Military Forces ◽  
Private Military Companies ◽  
Foreign Operations ◽  
Russian Law ◽  
Public Concerns

Subject The emergence of private militaries. Significance There is a clear emerging trend towards the establishment of private military companies (PMCs) in Russia for use in operations abroad. Although PMCs have no status under Russian law as yet, organisations fitting that description have already been in operation in Ukraine and Syria. Impacts Private soldiers are likely to go beyond protection roles to take part in offensive operations. New companies will soak up pool of ex-combatants from eastern Ukraine. Using commercially contracted personnel will reduce public concerns about casualties incurred in foreign operations.

Total acquisition could buoy East African oil fortunes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Cooperation ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
East African ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Energy ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Oil Revenues

Subject East African oil prospects. Significance Statements by South Sudan’s oil minister that French major Total is poised to sign a new oil exploration agreement have shone a spotlight on the French company’s wider East African strategy and potential key role in regional infrastructure development. Should Total’s mooted interest in South Sudan come to fruition, it would have significant implications for regional energy prospects. Impacts The deal would be a major boost for South Sudan, which seeks new partners to deliver new oil revenues and shore up its collapsing economy. Development of South Lokichar could help revive Kenya’s wider infrastructural aspirations, which had begun to look over-ambitious. Total could catalyse flagging regional cooperation, though it will have to manage expectations of governments and local populations.

Drawing the case studies together: synthesis of case studies and group discussions

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry David Gibson ◽  
Aka Festus Tongwa ◽  
Sarwar Bari ◽  
Guillaume Chantry ◽  
Manu Gupta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Action Research ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Disaster Reduction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Underlying Risk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to individually examine the findings from eight case studies presented in this special issue and comparatively identify the findings regarding local learning and action. Design/methodology/approach Underlying research questions regarding power and powerlessness in regard to addressing underlying risk factors affecting local populations form the basis for the discussion. Proceedings of a collaborative workshop conducted with the contributing authors are analysed qualitatively to identify learning relating to the research questions emerging from the case studies individually and collectively. Findings A number of strategies and tactics for addressing underlying risk factors affecting local populations were identified from the case studies, including collaboration and cohesion. Campaigning, lobbying, communications and social mobilisation in an attempt to bridge the gap between local concerns and the decision-making of government and other powerful actors. Innovation and local mobilisation to address shortcomings in government support for disaster reduction and development. Communications as a first base to influence behaviour of both communities and government. Social change through empowerment of women to act in disaster reduction and development. Research limitations/implications The outcomes of the action research conducted by the authors individually and collectively highlight the necessity for bridging different scales of action through a range of strategies and tactics to move beyond local self-reliance to influence on underlying risk factors. The action research process employed may have wider applications in gathering and formalising local-level experience and knowledge. Practical implications The case studies and their analysis present a range of practical strategies and tactics to strengthen local resilience and address underlying risk factors which are replicable in other contexts. Originality/value Practitioners are activists and do not often engage in critical reflection and analysis. The method presented here offers a means of achieving this in order to generate learning from local-level experience. The findings contribute to the consideration of cross-scale action to address underlying risk factors which impact local communities.

Mission Command & Manoeuvrist Approach – Basic Principles of Nato Urban Operations

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-96
Author(s):  
Lucian Ispas ◽  
Paul Tudorache
Keyword(s):  
Urban Environments ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Collateral Damage ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Military Forces ◽  
The Military ◽  
Difficult Situations

Abstract Analyzing the recent confrontations, as those from Syria, Ukraine, Iraq, and so on, we have found that most of the military operations, at least the decisive ones, have taken place predominantly in urban environments whose fundamental characteristics are given, especially by the density of buildings and population. Carrying out operations in such environments, particularly offensive, requires the military forces to deal with the most complex and difficult situations, because in addition to engaging a very diverse typology of adversaries, it is also necessary to apply control measures in order to limit the losses and collateral damage among own forces and local populations. As a result, this context has imposed an operational adaptation of military forces, whose principles consist in manoeuvrist approach and mission command, which, correlated and applied coherently, finally led to the desired end states.

Poor peacebuilding risks power vacuums in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Aid Workers ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Framework Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Colombian Government ◽  
The Government

Subject Shadow governance in Colombia. Significance On March 30, the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (ELN) signed a framework agreement in Caracas formally to launch peace talks. Meanwhile, negotiations between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are in their final stages. The coordination of negotiations with Colombia's two leftist guerrilla groups is crucial in ensuring the security and stability of their territorial strongholds after they make peace. Impacts Necessary peacebuilding cooperation with guerrillas will leave the government open to attacks from the opposition and peace process critics. The success of foreign aid workers will depend on their building local democratic capacities rather than assisting the government. State efforts to tackle BACRIM encroachment by force could destroy any hard-won legitimacy with local populations.

Returning jihadis raise Tunisians' anxiety

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Border Areas ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Subject Foreign fighters' impact on security. Significance Between 3,000-6,000 Tunisians have left to fight alongside jihadist organisations abroad since 2011, many of them in the neighbouring Libya. The possibility of their return has caused domestic anxiety and tension, triggering protests and controversy. Impacts The government will likely seek to tighten security, especially in the border areas. However, excessive force and human rights violations could radicalise the local populations. Public expenditure in the security sector will increase, as well as defence contracts with foreign countries.

Benishangul-Gumuz unrest complicates Ethiopia’s crisis

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Forces ◽  
Territorial Claims

Significance The attacks were apparently orchestrated by armed vigilantes from the Gumuz ethnic group targeting people mainly of Amhara but also of Oromo and Agaw origin. The killings not only complicate the country’s growing security quagmire; they may exacerbate overlapping inter-regional territorial claims and conflict. Impacts Amhara officials may pressure national authorities to reshuffle Benishangul-Gumuz leaders, which could create a dangerous power vacuum. The killings will strengthen Amhara nationalists’ efforts to stake historical territorial claims over areas where the violence occurred. The movement of military forces from western Oromia to Benishangul-Gumuz could give OLF-Shene time to regroup and restore its strength.

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