Following momentum and avoiding the “Minsky Moment” evidence from investors on the Financial Instability Hypothesis

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 205-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Pirie ◽  
Ronald King To Chan
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hyman Minsky ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Regional Markets ◽  
Unstable States

Purpose This study aims to find out how institutional investors use momentum in making investment decisions, and whether their actions are consistent with the Financial Instability Hypothesis of Hyman Minsky. Design/methodology/approach The study discusses the findings of interviews with 25 professional investors from the Hong Kong offices of five global financial institutions. All of the participants have several years of practical experience in global and regional markets. Findings Nearly all the managers interviewed said they use momentum in making investment decisions, and they do this in ways that are consistent with the Financial Instability Hypothesis, in which markets alternate between stable and unstable states. The participants are aware they may contribute to this, but they cannot avoid doing it because of short-term constraints in the present financial system. Originality/value This study adds to our knowledge of how professional investors use momentum in their investment strategies. It complements findings of quantitative studies that show momentum strategies have been profitable in many market settings. It also adds evidence that supports the Financial Instability Hypothesis.

Does underconfidence matter in short-term and long-term investment decisions? Evidence from an emerging market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maqsood Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to clarify the mechanism by which underconfidence heuristic-driven bias influences the short-term and long-term investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange.Design/methodology/approachInvestors' underconfidence has been measured using a questionnaire, comprising numerous items, including indicators of short-term and long-term investment decision. In order to establish the influence of underconfidence on the investment decisions in both the short and long run, a 5-point Likert scale questionnaire has been used to collect data from the sample of 203 investors. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and AMOS graphics software. Hypotheses were tested using structural equation modeling technique.FindingsThis article provides further empirical insights into the relationship between heuristic-driven biases and investment decision-making in the short and long run. The results suggest that underconfidence bias has a markedly negative influence on the short-term and long-term decisions made by investors in developing markets. It means that heuristic-driven biases can impair the quality of both short-term and long-term investment decisions.Practical implicationsThis article encourages investors to avoid relying on cognitive heuristics, namely, underconfidence or their feelings when making short-term and long-term investment strategies. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic-driven biases in investment management, which could be very useful for finance practitioners' such as investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making its financial management strategies. They can improve the quality of their decision-making by recognizing their behavioral biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in more appropriate investment strategies.Originality/valueThe current study is the first to focus on links between underconfidence bias and short-term and long-term investment decision-making. This article enhanced the understanding of the role that heuristic-driven bias plays in the investment management and more importantly, it went some way toward enhancing understanding of behavioral aspects and their influence on the investment decision-making in an emerging market. It also adds to the literature in the area of behavioral finance specifically the role of heuristics in investment strategies; this field is in its initial stage, even in developed countries, while, in developing countries, little work has been done.

Chasing momentum

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 218-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Pirie ◽  
Ronald King To Chan
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
News Coverage ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Experience ◽  
Investment Process

Purpose – This study aims to find out why and how institutional investors in Hong Kong use momentum in the investment process. Design/methodology/approach – This study is based on interviews with 25 institutional investors based in Hong Kong, all of whom had practical investment experience of at least three years and direct responsibility for making investment decisions. Findings – Nearly all the managers interviewed use momentum strategies, and they gave three main reasons for this. First, they find momentum works in practice, particularly in the short term. Second, they believe recent changes in market conditions, such as higher volatility and widespread news coverage, have increased momentum effects. Third, they say institutional factors matter. Frequent monitoring of performance is now the norm, and this tends to focus on short-term results. Originality/value – This study complements earlier quantitative research that shows momentum strategies is a method commonly used in investment decisions. It also adds to our knowledge of what institutional investors actually do in practice, and what factors influence their application of momentum strategies.

The profitability of algorithmic trading systems based on football sentiment

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-46
Author(s):  
Raúl Gómez-Martínez ◽  
Camila Marqués-Bogliani ◽  
Jessica Paule-Vianez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Algorithmic Trading ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Measurable Effect ◽  
Behavioural Finance ◽  
Trading Systems ◽  
European Football

Behavioural finance has shown that investment decisions are the result of not just rational but also emotional brain processes. On the assumption that emotions affect financial markets, it would seem likely that football results might have a measurable effect on financial markets. To test this, this study describes three algorithmic trading systems based exclusively on the results of three top European football teams (Juventus, Bayern München and Paris St Germain) opening long or short positions in the next market season of the futures market of the index of each country (MIB (Milano Italia Borsa), DAX (Deutscher Aktien Index) and CAC (Cotation Assistée en Continu). Depending on the outcome of the last game played a long position was taken after a victory and a short position after a draw or defeat. The results showed that the algorithmic systems were profitable in the case of Juventus and Bayern whereas in the case of PSG, the system was profitable, but in an inverse way. This study shows that investment strategies that take account of sports sentiment could have a profitable outcome.

Making investment decisions in stock markets using a forecasting-Markowitz based decision-making approaches

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 647-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Moeini Najafabadi ◽  
Mehdi Bijari ◽  
Mehdi Khashei
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Prediction Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Markowitz Model

Purpose This study aims to make investment decisions in stock markets using forecasting-Markowitz based decision-making approaches. Design/methodology/approach The authors’ approach offers the use of time series prediction methods including autoregressive, autoregressive moving average and artificial neural network, rather than calculating the expected rate of return based on distribution. Findings The results show that using time series prediction methods has a significant effect on improving investment decisions and the performance of the investments. Originality/value In this study, in contrast to previous studies, the alteration in the Markowitz model started with the investment expected rate of return. For this purpose, instead of considering the distribution of returns and determining the expected returns, time series prediction methods were used to calculate the future return of each asset. Then, the results of different time series methods replaced the expected returns in the Markowitz model. Finally, the overall performance of the method, as well as the performance of each of the prediction methods used, was examined in relation to nine stock market indices.

Heuristic biases in investment decision-making and perceived market efficiency

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah ◽  
Maqsood Ahmad ◽  
Faisal Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis. Findings The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency. Research limitations/implications The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation. Practical implications The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases. Originality/value The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.

What drives the venture capital investments in China?

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 574-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yixi Ning ◽  
Gubo Xu ◽  
Ziwu Long
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Aggregate Amount ◽  
A Share

Purpose This study aims to examine the venture capital (VC) industry in China. It has demonstrated a history of high growth with significant variations over time. The authors have examined the trends and determinants of VC investments in China over a 20-year period from 1995 to 2014. They find that the aggregate amount of VC investments, the total number of venture deals and the average amount of venture investments per deal in China are all significantly impacted by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. GDP, export, money supply), technology innovations and financial market indicators (i.e. initial public offerings (IPOs), interest rate, price-to-earnings ratio, etc.). They also find that the 2007 China A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent global financial crisis have motivated VCists in China to adjust their investment strategies and risk levels by allocating more capital to later-stage investments and securing more deals with later-round financings. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, the China’s venture industry has recovered faster compared to the US counterpart response. Design/methodology/approach The authors first perform trend analysis of VC investments at an aggregate level, by stages of development, and across industry from 1995 to 2014.To test H1 and H2, the authors use multiple regression models with lagged explanatory variables. To test H3, the authors use univariate tests to compare the measures of VC investments at an aggregate level, stage funds ratios, stage deals ratios and financing series ratios during both a five-year and seven-year time windows around the 2007 A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent financial crisis. Findings The development of the VC industry in China has demonstrated a history of high growth with significant variation over time. The authors find that the aggregate amount of VC investments, the total number of venture deals and the average amount of venture investments per deal in China are all significantly impacted by macroeconomic conditions (i.e. GDP, export, money supply), technology innovations and financial market indicators (i.e. IPOs, interest rate, price-to-earnings ratio, etc.). The authors also find that the 2007 China A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent global financial crisis have motivated VCists in China to adjust their investment strategies and risk by allocating more capital to later-stage investments and securing more deals with later-round financings. However, the China VC industry has recovered faster compared to the USA just after the 2008 global financial crisis. Research limitations/implications There are also limitations in the study. The VC data in China in the earlier 1990s might not be very reliable due to the quality of statistics. Therefore, the trend analysis and discussions mainly focus on the time after 2000. Also, the authors cannot find VC financing sequence data for the analysis. Second, there is no doubt that the policy impact from Chinese transforming economic system and government policies on its VC industry is substantial (Su and Wang, 2013). However, they cannot find an appropriate variable to be included in the empirical models to consider this effect. Further study on this area would provide meaningful information. Third, although the authors have done comparison study between the VC industry in China in this study and the VC industry in the US documented in Ning et al. (2015) and discussed some interesting findings, more in-depth research in this area will be very useful. Practical implications The findings have meaningful implications for VCists and start-up companies seeking equity financings in China. VCists should closely monitor macroeconomic and market conditions to make appropriate adjustments to their risk and investment strategies. Entrepreneurs seeking equity financings for their business could also monitor the identified macroeconomic and market indicators, which can help them with their timing and to negotiate a better equity financing deal. VC financing is more likely to succeed when key macroeconomic and market indicators become favorable. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by testing the supply and demand theory on the VC market proposed by Poterba (1989) and Gompers and Lerner (1998) from the macroeconomic perspective using 20 years’ VC data from China. The authors also examine how the 2007 A-Share stock market crash and the subsequent financial crisis affected VCists to adjust their risk levels and investment strategies. It provides useful information for international academia and policymakers to understand the quick rise of China VC industry. The authors also find that the macroeconomic drivers of VC industry are somewhat different under different economic systems.

Managing multichannel coordination in retail banking: the influence of customer participation

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 327-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loïc Plé
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Design ◽  
Retail Banking ◽  
Customer Participation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Retail Banks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to explore the combining of marketing and organizational literature. This paper seeks to evaluate the relationships between multichannel coordination and customer participation, as seen through the lens of potential customer opportunism. It aims at showing the impact of this opportunism on the organizational design of multiple channels structures.Design/methodology/approachThe research reports on an exploratory case study in a French retail bank. A total of 25 in‐depth interviews were conducted, and the use of other sources enabled data triangulation.FindingsThe results show first that an increase in the number of distribution channels is liable to favor customer opportunistic behavior. To counter this, the bank mainly relies on impersonal coordination modes. An emerging result highlights the role of the customer as a “perceptual filter” between the different channels of employees.Research limitations/implicationsCustomer opportunism is studied via channels employees perceptions. An investigation using a customer survey may help to better understand this construct, e.g. to identify its antecedents, and to measure it precisely. Moreover, further qualitative and/or quantitative studies with larger sample sizes are needed to try and generalize these results.Practical implicationsIt is recommended not to forget that customers can facilitate or hinder multichannel coordination. Retail banks have the power to use them conveniently, provided that they are fully conscious of the scope of the “partial employee” role played by the customer.Originality/valueThis paper broadens understanding of how multichannel distribution structures are coordinated, and in a way belies traditional organizational design literature. The emerging result gives birth to the concept of “reversed interactive marketing”, which has interesting theoretical and practical repercussions.

Unveiling the myths of M&A integration: challenging general management and consulting practice

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Bauer ◽  
Julia Hautz ◽  
Kurt Matzler
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Research Management ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Senior Managers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Development ◽  
General Management ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
The Common ◽  
Successful Integration

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to detect and challenge generally accepted management and consulting practice in Mergers & Acquisitions (M&As). M&As have been an important issue in strategic management and corporate development for decades. The integration process of two separate entities has been found to be of importance, and has, accordingly, received a significant amount of attention by research, management and consulting literature. Based on these insights, managers tend to rely on well-established and generally accepted rules developed by practice and consultants that should support a successful integration process and the generation of value. Nonetheless, M&As’ efforts still often fail to create value. So is the common practice of the established drivers and beneficial consequences of the integration of M&As right, or do the experiences of consultants, companies and managers reveal something different? Design/methodology/approach – To understand these challenges, the authors spent four years studying M&A projects and subsequent integration processes of more than 400 companies that engaged in M&A efforts. The data derived from four survey-based quantitative studies among more than 430 CEOs, CFOs and other senior managers in the field of M&As and personal interviews that were conducted to get in-depth insights. Findings – This extensive research on the efforts and projects of M&As over many years and including many companies reveals that successful integration processes are complex, social and culturally dependent endeavors and that the application of commonly accepted and established principles oversimplifies and disregards the interdependencies. Originality/value – The present paper unveils four established principles concerning the successful integration after M&As as tenacious myths and provides more differentiated insights into value-destroying and value-creating mechanisms in M&As.

scholarly journals Teaching health education

2017 ◽  
Vol 117 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Pickett ◽  
Willeke Rietdijk ◽  
Jenny Byrne ◽  
Jonathan Shepherd ◽  
Paul Roderick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Promotion ◽  
Health Education ◽  
Life Experience ◽  
Education Programme ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Early Career ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand early career teachers’ perceptions of the impact of a pre-service health education programme on their health promotion practice in schools and the contextual factors that influence this. Design/methodology/approach Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 primary and secondary trainee and qualified teachers who had trained at a university in England. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Findings The teachers found the training to be a useful introduction, particularly when it was relevant to their practice. They valued gaining practical skills at university, on placement and in school once qualified. They reported that witnessing pupils’ lives in school had increased their awareness that health education is important. Their personal qualities, life experience, the school’s ethos and competing pressures influenced their practice. Teachers considered that building relationships with colleagues, pupils and parents facilitated health promotion, and that health education needs to be relevant to pupils. Some teachers expressed that teaching about health could be a “minefield”. They also discussed whether schools or parents are responsible for educating pupils about health issues and the place of health promotion within education’s wider purpose. Originality/value Few studies have followed-up trainee teachers once they are in teaching posts to explore the longer-term perceived impact of pre-service health education training. The findings suggest that teachers’ development takes place via an interaction between training and practice, suggesting that training could particularly aim to provide teachers with a contextualised understanding of health issues and practical experience.

scholarly journals ERP benefits capability framework: orchestration theory perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 266-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amgad Badewi ◽  
Essam Shehab ◽  
Jing Zeng ◽  
Mostafa Mohamad
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effective ◽  
Organizational Capabilities ◽  
Erp Implementation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Financial Perspective ◽  
Complementary Resources ◽  
Benefits Realization ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Right

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to answer two research questions: what are the ERP resources and organizational complementary resources (OCRs) required to achieve each group of benefits? And on the basis of its resources, when should an organization invest more in ERP resources and/or OCRs so that the potential value of its ERP is realised? Design/methodology/approach Studying 12 organizations in different countries and validating the results with 8 consultants. Findings ERP benefits realization capability framework is developed; it shows that each group of benefits requires ERP resources (classified into features, attached technologies and information technology department competences) and OCRs (classified into practices, attitudes, culture, skills and organizational characteristics) and that leaping ahead to gain innovation benefits before being mature enough in realising a firm’s planning and automation capabilities could be a waste of time and effort. Research limitations/implications It is qualitative study. It needs to be backed by quantitative studies to test the results. Practical implications Although the “P” in ERP stands for planning, many academics and practitioners still believe that ERP applies to automation only. This research spotlights that the ability to invest in ERP can increase the innovation and planning capabilities of the organization only if it is extended and grown at the right time and if it is supported by OCRs. It is not cost effective to push an organization to achieve all the benefits at the same time; rather, it is clear that an organization would not be able to enjoy a higher level of benefits until it achieves a significant number of lower-level benefits. Thus, investing in higher-level benefit assets directly after an ERP implementation, when there are no organizational capabilities available to use these assets, could be inefficient. Moreover, it could be stressful to users when they see plenty of new ERP resources without the ability to use them. Although it could be of slight benefit to introduce, for example, business intelligence to employees in the “stabilizing period” (Badewi et al., 2013), from the financial perspective, it is a waste of money since the benefits would not be realised as expected. Therefore, orchestrating ERP assets with the development of organizational capabilities is important for achieving the greatest effectiveness and efficiency of the resources available to the organization. This research can be used as a benchmark for designing the various blueprints required to achieve different groups of benefits from ERP investments. Originality/value This research addresses two novel questions: RQ1: what are the ERP resources and OCRs required to achieve the different kinds of ERP benefits? RQ2: when, and on what basis, should an organization deploy more resources to leverage the ERP business value?

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