Bounded rationality in a P2P lending market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongwoo Kim

PurposeThis study seeks to provide a systematic analysis of bounded rationality expressed by individual lenders in a Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market.Design/methodology/approach26,383 personal loan listings collected from Moneyauction in Korea, were analyzed with binary logit regression. 6 hypothesis based on bounded rationality theory were constructed and tested. Binary logit regression was employed as both dependent variables have binary characteristics and can thus be assigned values equal to 0 or 1.FindingsThe results confirm that individual P2P lenders make their funding decisions based on bounded rationality, arousing from cognitive limitations, incomplete information, and time constraints.Research limitations/implicationsBy adopting the theory of bounded rationality, this study attempts to prepare the theoretical background for an explanation of the decision behavior of individual lenders in a P2P lending market.Practical implicationsThe findings of this research emphasize the importance of the platform provider's role to facilitate the sustainable market growth of P2P lending as an alternative form of finance. As the rationality of individual lenders is bounded during their decision-making process according to the research findings, the platform provider must continuously adjust their decision criteria by referencing the cumulative loan repayment data.Originality/valueThis study attempts to identify for the first time the suboptimal decision making by individual lenders in a P2P lending market on the basis of bounded rationality theory.

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Endro Gunawan ◽  
John K.M. Kuwornu ◽  
Avishek Datta ◽  
Loc T. Nguyen

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the factors influencing Indonesian farmers’ use of the warehouse receipt system (WRS) and their choice of private and public warehouses.Design/methodology/approachPrimary data were collected through questionnaires administered to 500 farmers in two districts, Subang and Cianjur, in West Java Province in Indonesia. Binary logit regression was employed to examine the factors influencing farmers’ use of the WRS. Binary and bivariate probit regressions were employed to determine the factors influencing farmers’ choice of private and public warehouses.FindingsThe empirical results of the binary logit regression revealed that age, land ownership, selling price, the use of the warehouse receipt as collateral security and the availability of transportation facility positively influenced farmers’ use of the WRS, whereas education, income, farm profit and participation in farmers’ group negatively influenced farmers’ use of the WRS. The results of the binary probit regressions revealed that profit, availability of insurance and processing facility positively influenced the farmers’ decision to use the private WRS, whereas education, production, selling price and distance from the farm to the warehouse negatively influenced farmers’ decision to use the private WRS. Age, education, selling price and distance from the farm to the warehouse positively influenced the farmers’ decision to use the public WRS, whereas production and availability of processing facility negatively influenced the decision of farmers to use the public WRS.Practical implicationsThis study highlights the importance of education and government assistance regarding the provision of facilities and price indemnified insurance for successful implementation of the WRS.Originality/valueThis study provides an empirical contribution to the existing literature on the development of WRS in Indonesia. In terms of methods of analysis, previous studies used purely qualitative and descriptive methods, whereas this study employed econometric techniques (i.e. binary logit, binary probit and bivariate probit regressions) to examine the WRS in Indonesia. In addition, whereas previous studies explored the WRS in general, this study investigated the farmers’ use of the public and private warehouses in addition to exploring the WRS in general. Finally, the finding that the average annual profit of non-users was significantly higher than that of the users of the WRS is striking, and this could be attributed to the current challenges of the implementation of the WRS, including high transportation and warehouse rental costs.


2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 987-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Tarka

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to diagnose two types of causal relationships from the perspective of the structural equations model. First, the relationship is analysed between managers’ beliefs regarding the use of marketing information in making decisions and the rational premises of decision validity. Next, the rational premises of decision validity are considered in reference to managers’ abilities to select appropriate information from marketing research reports. Taking into account all of the above premises, the author in the empirical research conducted here introduced the following two research hypotheses which state that: H1: the high level of managers’ beliefs about the usefulness of information from marketing research does not yet positively influence their way of reasoning and making decisions in the light of the bounded-rationality theory. H2: managers who do not use the bounded-rationality criteria of decision assessment, lack of the analytical approach in solving decision problems, also reflect the inability of selecting proper information from a marketing research report. Design/methodology/approach In the conducted empirical research, that is, in the process of gathering the information, the internet questionnaire survey was used, which included the author’s own version of items measuring respective latent variables. Next, to the chosen group of the respondents (invited to the survey through the two social networking sites: LinkedIn and Golden Line), a direct link to the questionnaire was sent via personal e-mails. The method of providing answers to the questions in the online survey included indicating by the respondents the answers on a seven-point Likert scale for the statements which were expressed in agree/disagree format. The whole empirical research was conducted between March 1 and August 31 in 2014, and the process of choosing the appropriate respondents to the sample was conducted with the use of the two techniques: judgemental sampling and snowball sampling. The final size of sample equalled n=213 and its structure included the individuals in companies, who have borne the responsibility mainly for the organisation and planning of strategic and tactic marketing activities. In short, the sample structure consisted of the respondents responsible for decision-making processes and included: marketing directors (45 per cent), product managers (27 per cent), managing directors and chief executive officers (20 per cent), as well as marketing executives (8 per cent). Findings On the basis of findings and the obtained empirical results it is argued that decision makers in companies, despite their strong declarations regarding the use of marketing information, in reality prefer to act in a non-analytical way when making choices. Managers, when faced with difficulties in information processing, adopt simple solutions in solving decision problems which are much closer to the irrational sphere of making choices. Thus the full potential of information that is available to them from marketing research is not even considered. This irrational behaviour in decisions as well as the lack of analytical thinking result in further consequences pertaining to the way that information is selected. Practical implications In spite of all theoretical arguments supporting the bounded-rational theory of making choices, the irrationality or, simply, the non-analytical thinking in decision-making processes in organisations takes place. The inability to use effectively information by managers in companies and failure to scrutinise their own processes of decision making on the basis of logic and reasoning is admittedly the Achille’s heel of many information users. Using information from marketing research in decisions, as well as undertaking the sequence of steps to ensure the valid decision-making process, seems to be a huge problem for managers. Taking into account, the empirical research findings, one can argue now that in spite of the managers’ conviction about the usefulness of the information from marketing research, that is, despite their declarations pertaining to use of information in decision-making processes, such information is in practice often ignored and not taken into account. Originality/value In the paper the author explains why, as is supported by empirical evidence, managers in companies decide to conceal their real beliefs concerning the usefulness of marketing information. Taking this into consideration, the indirect question of the empirical research conducted here is whether managers ever seriously consider marketing research results when making decisions?


Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Li ◽  
Ju Liu ◽  
Cuiping Wei ◽  
Jian Liu

PurposeChina is a critical factor for constructing an all-round well-off society. Infrastructure construction, especially high-grade highways, in the western area is an essential component of the strategy for large-scale development of west China. It is crucial to evaluate investment projects for high-grade highways and select the best one. Testing investment projects and selecting the best one can be recognized as a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. In this process, decision-makers (DMs) usually face with uncertain information because of complicated decision environment or their limited knowledge.Design/methodology/approachA new Evaluation based on the Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) for PFS based on the DEMATEL is proposed: The authors offer a new score function and prove some properties for the score function. They put forward a novel Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for PFS to analyze the relations of criteria and get criteria weights. Considering the bounded rationality of DM, the authors propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on prospect theory. They apply their proposed approach to a western city's actual case in selecting a suitable project for building a high-grade highway.FindingsBy comparison, the authors can observe that our method has some traits: (1) considering bounded rationality of DM; (2) fewer computation; (3) having the ability to obtain the relation of criteria and finding the critical factor in the decision system.Originality/valueIn this paper, the authors propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on the DEMATEL technique. They transform PFS into crisp numbers by their proposed new score function for PFN to make the decision process more convenient. Then, the authors use the DEMATEL method to obtain the relationship between criteria and criteria weights. Furthermore, they propose a new EDAS method for PFS based on DEMATEL to reduce the computational complexity. Finally, they apply our method to a real case and compare our method with two traditional methods.


Author(s):  
Brooke N. Shannon ◽  
Zachary A. McGee ◽  
Bryan D. Jones

Bounded rationality conceives of people engaging in politics as goal oriented but endowed with cognitive and emotional architectures that limit their abilities to pursue those goals rationally. Political institutions provide the critical link between micro- and macro-processes in political decision-making. They act to (a) compensate for those bounds on rationality; (b) make possible cooperative arrangements not possible under the assumptions of full or comprehensive rationality; and (c) fall prey to the same cognitive and emotional limits or canals that individual humans do. The cognitive limitations that hamper individuals are not only replicated at the organizational level but are in fact causal.


2012 ◽  
Vol 198-199 ◽  
pp. 746-750
Author(s):  
Qing Xue ◽  
Bo Wei Cao ◽  
Ai Lan Li ◽  
Ping Gang Yu ◽  
Yi Jun Yao

Rational theory of finite virtual soldiers on the concept of bounded rationality, bounded rationality theory analysis of the added features of the virtual soldiers, given the limited rationality based on the overall framework of the virtual soldiers, using the model framework to make the virtual real soldiers, soldiers with similar perception, decision making and exercise capacity, for the subsequent implementation of the modules laid the foundation framework.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Kangmennaang ◽  
Isaac Luginaah

Objectives.Although research demonstrates the public health burden of prostate cancer among men in the Caribbean, relatively little is known about the factors that underlie the low levels of testing for the disease among this population.Study Design.A cross-sectional study of prostate cancer testing behaviours among men aged 40–60 years in Dominican Republic using the Demographic and Health Survey (2013).Methods.We use hierarchical binary logit regression models and average treatment effects combined with propensity score matching to explore the determinants of prostate screening as well as the average effect of health insurance coverage on screening. The use of hierarchical binary logit regression enabled us to control for the effect of unobserved heterogeneity at the cluster level that may affect prostate cancer testing behaviours.Results.Screening varied significantly with health insurance coverage, knowledge of cholesterol level, education, and wealth. Insured men were more likely to test for prostate cancer (OR = 1.65,p=0.01) compared to the uninsured.Conclusions.The expansion and restructuring of Dominican Republic universal health insurance scheme to ensure equity in access may improve health access that would potentially impact positively on prostate cancer screening among men.


Kybernetes ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 450-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yidan Chen ◽  
Lanying Sun

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics and evolution of trust in organizational cross alliances. Design/methodology/approach In alliances between corporations and nonprofit organizations, trust in decision-making is a dynamic process. Using the replicated dynamics model of evolutionary game theory, this paper provides a trust decision model and analyzes four scenarios under different parameters. A numerical simulation is developed to present an intuitive interpretation of the dynamic development of trust decisions and the effects of incentive and punishment mechanisms. Findings Under different parameters, bounded rationality and utilities result in different but stable evolutionary strategies; the initial probability of adopting a trust strategy leads directly to whether participants adopt the strategy when the system reaches stability after continued games; and incentive and punishment mechanisms can significantly reduce the initial probability of adopting a trust strategy where the system evolves to meet stable state needs. Practical implications The establishment of trust relationships is an important influence on the stable and coordinated development of an alliance. The proposed model can help the alliance build closer trust relationships and provide a theoretical basis for the design of the trust mechanism. Originality/value Incentive and punishment bound by some degree of trust are introduced to address the problems of trust decisions and their dynamics; the model created reflects the bounded rationality and utility of each game stage. Useful evolutionary stable strategies using different variables are proposed to address the decision-making problems of trust in cross alliances.


2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Xiaojia Guo ◽  
Hao Chen ◽  
Peng Jiang

Subject area This case describes a real-time crisis experienced by the co-founder (Mr Yang) of a multi-national Chinese company operating in Vietnam during the 2014 Vietnam riot. After the strike broke out, Mr Yang made several critical decisions to protect and save both his factory and employees. Study level/applicability This case is applicable to graduate-level management courses such as: Business ethics, Decision-making, Business Communication and Cross-Cultural Management. Students should have some knowledge in Decision-Making concepts (e.g. “bounded rationality”); in Cross-Cultural Management concepts (e.g. “culture norms”); and in Strategic management theory such as “institution-based view” (e.g. formal vs informal institutions). Case overview Part A of the case introduces the main character (Mr Yang) and his factory in Vietnam, the escalation of the strike and the course of the crisis. It also elaborates the important critical decisions Mr Yang made to save both his factory and employees. Part B of the case describes the rescue of Mr Yang and his Chinese employees, his actions after the crisis and strategic positioning in future business. Part C of the case introduces the aftermath of the riot and Mr Yang's reflection regarding the crisis. Expected learning outcomes The instructors may emphasize different learning objectives in different courses. Business Ethics: help the students learn to recognize, clarify, speak and act on their values when conflicts arise. Decision-Making: helps the students understand the logic of sense-making in crisis and the concept of bounded rationality. Business Communication: helps the students learn to raise issues in an effective manner and learn to deliver their own responses effectively. Cross-Cultural Management: helps the students identify and analyze the many ways in which managers can voice and implement their values in the face of critical moments in a different cultural environment. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Thais Spiegel ◽  
Ana Carolina P V Silva

In the study of decision-making, the classical view of behavioral appropriateness or rationality was challenged by neuro and psychological reasons. The “bounded rationality” theory proposed that cognitive limitations lead decision-makers to construct simplified models for dealing with the world. Doctors' decisions, for example, are made under uncertain conditions, as without knowing precisely whether a diagnosis is correct or whether a treatment will actually cure a patient, and often under time constraints. Using cognitive heuristics are neither good nor bad per se, if applied in situations to which they have been adapted to be helpful. Therefore, this text contextualizes the human decision-making perspective to find descriptions that adhere more closely to the human decision-making process. Then, based on a literature review of cognition during decision-making, particularly in healthcare context, it addresses a model that identifies the roles of attention, categorization, memory, emotion, and their inter-relations, during the decision-making process.


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