Spatial linear modeling and forecasting of forest fires across the United States

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Minardi ◽  
G.B. Marchisio ◽  
R.P. Treder
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
The United States ◽  
Linear Modeling ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting

scholarly journals Understanding Forest Fire Management in Indonesia from a Global Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Indra Agus Riyanto ◽  
Ahmad Cahyadi ◽  
Faricha Kurniadhini ◽  
Hafidz Bachtiar ◽  
Dwiki Apriyana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Forest Fire Management ◽  
Fire Disaster ◽  
Forest Fire Disaster

Forest fires are one of the global issues that attract worldwide attention. Russia, Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Indonesia are among the countries with the largest forest cover and long records of massive forest fires. Forest fire management is, therefore, critical to decreasing the severity level of these fires. Current conditions indicate that, compared with the four other countries, Indonesia has significantly reduced forest fires within the past five years. Consequently, adopting a global perspective to study the characteristics of forest fire disaster management has become necessary. For each management parameter, this research employed a literature review and descriptive analysis. The results showed that Indonesia had an advantage in the field of legal regulation. Indonesia tends to change its regulations within a short span of time, resulting in the number of forest fire incidents decreasing significantly compared with Russia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States. However, the country still has several weaknesses, namely in emergency responses, forest fire monitoring technology, and inter-institutional integration in forest fire disaster management.

scholarly journals Maternal Opioid Drug Use during Pregnancy and Its Impact on Perinatal Morbidity, Mortality, and the Costs of Medical Care in the United States

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valerie E. Whiteman ◽  
Jason L. Salemi ◽  
Mulubrhan F. Mogos ◽  
Mary Ashley Cain ◽  
Muktar H. Aliyu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Perinatal Outcomes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hospital Charges ◽  
Perinatal Morbidity ◽  
Opioid Use ◽  
Linear Modeling ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Hospitalization Costs

Objective. To identify factors associated with opioid use during pregnancy and to compare perinatal morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs between opioid users and nonusers.Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of pregnancy-related discharges from 1998 to 2009 using the largest publicly available all-payer inpatient database in the United States. We scanned ICD-9-CM codes for opioid use and perinatal outcomes. Costs of care were estimated from hospital charges. Survey logistic regression was used to assess the association between maternal opioid use and each outcome; generalized linear modeling was used to compare hospitalization costs by opioid use status.Results. Women who used opioids during pregnancy experienced higher rates of depression, anxiety, and chronic medical conditions. After adjusting for confounders, opioid use was associated with increased odds of threatened preterm labor, early onset delivery, poor fetal growth, and stillbirth. Users were four times as likely to have a prolonged hospital stay and were almost four times more likely to die before discharge. The mean per-hospitalization cost of a woman who used opioids during pregnancy was $5,616 (95% CI: $5,166–$6,067), compared to $4,084 (95% CI: $4,002–$4,166) for nonusers.Conclusion. Opioid use during pregnancy is associated with adverse perinatal outcomes and increased healthcare costs.

scholarly journals ANÁLISE TEMPORAL DA OCORRÊNCIA DE INCÊNDIOS FLORESTAIS NAS AMÉRICAS E REGIÃO DO CARIBE

Nativa ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Elaine Cristina Gomes Silva ◽  
Nilton Cesar Fiedler ◽  
Ronie Silva Juvanhol ◽  
Gabriel Mancini Antunes Silva ◽  
Felipe Patricio Neves
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The United States ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The United Nations

Com as mudanças climáticas ocorridas nas últimas décadas e com longos períodos de estiagem, as chances de ocorrências de fogo com maior frequência e intensidade, aumentam e, sem o devido controle, acabam ocasionando grandes incêndios florestais. Como consequência, pode haver elevados prejuízos ao meio ambiente e à sociedade. Sabendo da importância das estatísticas sobre incêndios florestais, objetivou-se nesta pesquisa, analisar dados estatísticos publicados pela Food and Agriculture Organizacion of the United Nations – FAO, sobre as principais causas, ocorrências e áreas queimadas nas Américas do Norte, Central, Sul e Região do Caribe, no período de 1990 a 2004. Os dados foram tabulados de diferentes maneiras, a fim de produzir uma estatística única, de acordo com a série temporal proposta. Os países da América Central e Caribe são os que menos apresentaram dados disponíveis enquanto que, os Estados Unidos é o que apresenta maior base de dados estatísticos. Os resultados mostraram que a América do Sul tem as maiores médias, em comparação com as demais regiões, os Estados Unidos têm o maior quantitativo de ocorrências, existe forte influência de fenômenos como El Ninõ e que as atividades humanas foram responsáveis pela grande maioria das ocorrências de incêndios florestais.Palavras-chave: proteção florestal, fogo, estiagem. TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF THE OCCURRENCE OF FOREST FIRES IN THE AMERICAS AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION ABSTRACT:With the climatic changes that occurred in the last decades and with long periods of drought, the chances of occurrences of fire with more frequency and intensity, increase and, without proper control, end up causing forest fires. As a consequence, there can be great damage to the environment and to society. The objective of this research was to analyze statistical data published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on the main causes, occurrences and areas burned in North, Central, South and Central America of the Caribbean, from 1990 to 2004. Data were tabulated in different ways to produce a single statistic, according to the proposed time series. Central American and Caribbean countries are the least likely to have available data, while the United States has the largest statistical data base. The results showed that South America has the highest averages compared to the other regions, the United States has the highest number of occurrences, there is a strong influence of phenomena such as El Nino and that human activities were responsible for the great majority of forest fires.Keywords: forest protection, fire, drought.

scholarly journals Examining the impact of heterogeneous nitryl chloride production on air quality across the United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 6145-6183 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Sarwar ◽  
H. Simon ◽  
P. Bhave ◽  
G. Yarwood
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
Reactive Nitrogen ◽  
Nitryl Chloride ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrolysis Of

Abstract. The heterogeneous hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5) has typically been modeled as only producing nitric acid. However, recent field studies have confirmed that the presence of particulate chloride alters the reaction product to produce nitryl chloride (ClNO2) which undergoes photolysis to generate chlorine atoms and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Both chlorine and NO2 affect atmospheric chemistry and air quality. We present an updated gas-phase chlorine mechanism that can be combined with the Carbon Bond 05 mechanism and incorporate the combined mechanism into the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. We then update the current model treatment of heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 to include ClNO2 as a product. The model, in combination with a comprehensive inventory of chlorine compounds, reactive nitrogen, particulate matter, and organic compounds, is used to evaluate the impact of the heterogeneous ClNO2 production on air quality across the United States for the months of February and September in 2006. The heterogeneous production increases ClNO2 in coastal as well as many in-land areas in the United States. Particulate chloride derived from sea-salts, anthropogenic sources, and forest fires activates the heterogeneous production of ClNO2. With current estimates of tropospheric emissions burden, it modestly enhances monthly mean 8-h ozone (up to 1–2 ppbv or 3–4%) but causes large increases (up to 13 ppbv) in isolated episodes. It also substantially reduce the mean total nitrate by up to 0.8–2.0 μg m−3 or 11–21%. Modeled ClNO2 accounts for up to 3–4% of the monthly mean total reactive nitrogen. Sensitivity results of the model suggest that ClNO2 formation is limited more by the presence of particulate chloride than by the abundance of N2O5.

scholarly journals The sociology of health in the United States: recent theoretical contributions

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 1031-1039 ◽  
Author(s):  
William C Cockerham
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The United States ◽  
Linear Modeling ◽  
Health Lifestyle ◽  
Fundamental Cause ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Sociology Of Health ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Primary Unit

This paper examines recent trends in theory in health sociology in the United States and finds that the use of theory is flourishing. The central thesis is that the field has reached a mature state and is in the early stage of a paradigm shift away from a past focus on methodological individualism (in which the individual is the primary unit of analysis) toward a growing utilization of theories with a structural orientation This outcome is materially aided by research methods (e.g. hierarchal linear modeling, biomarkers) providing measures of structural effects on the health of the individual that were often absent or underdeveloped in the past. Structure needs to be accounted for in any social endeavor and contemporary medical sociology appears to be doing precisely that as part of the next stage of its evolution. The recent contributions to theory in the sociology of health discussed in this paper are fundamental cause, medicalization, social capital, neighborhood disadvantage, and health lifestyle theories.

scholarly journals Limits to Ponderosa Pine Regeneration following Large High-Severity Forest Fires in the United States Southwest

Fire Ecology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Collin Haffey ◽  
Thomas D. Sisk ◽  
Craig D. Allen ◽  
Andrea E. Thode ◽  
Ellis Q. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Ponderosa Pine ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Pine Regeneration ◽  
United States Southwest

scholarly journals Application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous (ARIMAX) with Calendar Variation Effect Method for Forecasting Chocolate Data in Indonesia and the United States

2022 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-236
Author(s):  
Andy Rezky Pratama Syam
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Good Ability ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Time Series Method ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing

Forecasting chocolate consumption is required by producers in preparing the amount of production each month. The tradition of Valentine, Christmas and Eid al-Fitr which are closely related to chocolate makes it impossible to predict chocolate by using the Classical Time Series method. Especially for Eid al-Fitr, the determination follows the Hijri calendar and each year advances 10 days on the Masehi calendar, so that every three years Eid al-Fitr will occur in a different month. Based on this, the chocolate forecasting will show a variation calendar effect. The method used in modeling and forecasting chocolate in Indonesia and the United States is the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous) method with Calendar Variation effect. As a comparison, modeling and forecasting are also carried out using the Naïve Trend Linear, Naïve Trend Exponential, Double Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regression, and ARIMA methods. The ARIMAX method with Calendar Variation Effect produces a very precise MAPE value in predicting chocolate data in Indonesia and the United States. The resulting MAPE value is below 10 percent, so it can be concluded that this method has a very good ability in forecasting.

scholarly journals Examining the impact of heterogeneous nitryl chloride production on air quality across the United States

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 6455-6473 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Sarwar ◽  
H. Simon ◽  
P. Bhave ◽  
G. Yarwood
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
Reactive Nitrogen ◽  
Nitryl Chloride ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrolysis Of

Abstract. The heterogeneous hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5) has typically been modeled as only producing nitric acid. However, recent field studies have confirmed that the presence of particulate chloride alters the reaction product to produce nitryl chloride (ClNO2) which undergoes photolysis to generate chlorine atoms and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Both chlorine and NO2 affect atmospheric chemistry and air quality. We present an updated gas-phase chlorine mechanism that can be combined with the Carbon Bond 05 mechanism and incorporate the combined mechanism into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. We then update the current model treatment of heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 to include ClNO2 as a product. The model, in combination with a comprehensive inventory of chlorine compounds, reactive nitrogen, particulate matter, and organic compounds, is used to evaluate the impact of the heterogeneous ClNO2 production on air quality across the United States for the months of February and September in 2006. The heterogeneous production increases ClNO2 in coastal as well as many in-land areas in the United States. Particulate chloride derived from sea-salts, anthropogenic sources, and forest fires activates the heterogeneous production of ClNO2. With current estimates of tropospheric emissions, it modestly enhances monthly mean 8-h ozone (up to 1–2 ppbv or 3–4%) but causes large increases (up to 13 ppbv) in isolated episodes. This chemistry also substantially reduces the mean total nitrate by up to 0.8–2.0 μg m−3 or 11–21%. Modeled ClNO2 accounts for up to 6% of the monthly mean total reactive nitrogen. Sensitivity results of the model suggest that heterogeneous production of ClNO2 can further increase O3 and reduce TNO3 if elevated particulate-chloride levels are present in the atmosphere.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document