scholarly journals Voter Turnouts in Presidential Elections in Ghana: A Political Economy Analysis Using District-Level Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Kwabena Asomanin Anaman ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Income Elasticities ◽  
Price And Income Elasticities ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Political Economy Analysis ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
Cost Of Voting

During the Fourth Republican electioneering era in Ghana, starting in November 1992, presidential elections are conducted every four years. The 2000 and 2012 elections closely coincided with the national population censuses of 2000 and 2010, respectively. We constructed meso-level models, based on the concept of “average district voter”, to analyse factors influencing voter turnout rates. The results of the analysis indicated that voting was a normal good based on the estimated inelastic price and income elasticities of demand for this good. As expected, the cost of voting incurred by an individual negatively influenced turnout. The other significant negative factors influencing turnout rates included increasing male/female sex ratio (gender), increasing age-based dependency ratio (poverty burden), and disability.

scholarly journals Electoral Arrangements and Turnout Variance at the Sub-National Level: Comparative Insights from Three Constituencies in Ghana

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Fortune Agbele
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
National Level ◽  
Individual Perceptions ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Of Voting ◽  
Different Levels

Using micro-level data from three constituencies in Ghana, which are cases of high, average and low turnout respectively, I assess whether voters’ perceptions of the cost of voting (resource and time) can explain such variation in voter turnout. Results suggest that in Ghana, such individual perceptions of the cost associated with voting do not help in explaining variance in voter turnout at the constituency level: Across the different levels of turnout, there is little to no variance in voters’ perceptions. I find that the high positive perceptions of the electoral processes across high, average, and low turnout constituencies are not only due to the activities of the electoral management body but among others, the adjustments by citizens to the process based on their experiences from past elections.

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

scholarly journals Habit Formation in Voting: Evidence from Rainy Elections

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 160-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Fujiwara ◽  
Kyle Meng ◽  
Tom Vogl
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Habit Formation ◽  
County Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Social Spillovers ◽  
Consumption Value

We estimate habit formation in voting—the effect of past on current turnout—by exploiting transitory voting cost shocks. Using county-level data on US presidential elections from 1952–2012, we find that rainfall on current and past election days reduces voter turnout. Our estimates imply that a 1-point decrease in past turnout lowers current turnout by 0.6–1.0 points. Further analyses suggest that habit formation operates by reinforcing the direct consumption value of voting and that our estimates may be amplified by social spillovers. (JEL D72, D83, N42)

scholarly journals Political Economy Analysis of Voter Participation and Choices in National Elections in Ghana’s Fourth Republican Era

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 174
Author(s):  
Kwabena Asomanin Anaman ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Large Degree ◽  
District Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
National Population ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Republican Era

We analysed the determinants of voter participation (turnout), impairment of voter participation (spoiled or rejected ballots), and the outcomes (share of the total valid votes cast garnered by the victorious political party) in national presidential elections during the Fourth Republican era in Ghana. This analysis was undertaken based on meso-level statistical models, using district-level data of voters compiled from constituency-level data maintained by the Electoral Commission of Ghana, and district-level socio-economic characteristics derived from the 2010 and 2000 National Population Censuses conducted by the Ghana Statistical Service. In essence, we used data from two presidential elections in Ghana in 2000 and 2012 which could be directly aligned to data from the 2000 and 2010 national population censuses for district-level analysis using the concept of an average “district” voter. Our analysis indicated that the voter turnout was determined by a number of factors, the most important one being the population aged 15 over; the turnout decreases with increasing population. The impairment of voter participation, based on the proportion of the total votes cast attributed to spoiled ballots, was linked to the literacy rate with the spoiled ballots proportion declining with increasing literacy rate. The share of the total valid votes cast, obtained by the victorious party in a district, was influenced to a large degree by the proportion of the total number of citizens in a district belonging to the two biggest social/ethnic groups in Ghana, Asantes and Ewes, who predominantly voted in a countervailing manner for the parties that their political class elites dominate, the New Patriotic Party and National Democratic Congress, respectively.

The Legal Context of Turnout

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
State Level ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
Legal Context ◽  
Electoral Impact ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Of Voting

This chapter considers the electoral impact the new, wider array of voter registration and election administration laws using a new data set collected on state electoral rules between 1972 and 2008. States vary tremendously as to how easy it is to register and to vote, and previous research suggests that these laws affect who votes because they change the cost of voting. However, most of these studies rely on cross-sectional data, and usually consider the influence of one reform at a time. The chapter provides aggregate (state-level) analyses of the effects of changes in these rules on voter turnout. These analyses help us address the question of whether overall voter turnout has increased as a result of these legal changes. It finds modest effects of election day registration, of absentee voting, and of moving the closing date for registration closer to the election on overall turnout. The effect of early voting is less clear.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

scholarly journals Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
Seidu Mahama Alidu ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Census Data ◽  
District Level ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Unique Approach ◽  
Election Results

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

Voter Turnout and City Performance: Evidence from Italian Municipalities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Lo Prete ◽  
Federico Revelli
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Mayoral Elections ◽  
Administrative Efficiency ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Bad Weather ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Of Voting

Abstract Using data on mayoral elections in large Italian cities during the 2000s, we investigate whether and how voter turnout affects city performance across a number of dimensions. To address the issue of voter turnout endogeneity and identify the transmission mechanism, we exploit exogenous variation in participation rates in mayoral elections due to anticipated shocks (concurrence of local and national elections) and unanticipated shocks (bad weather on the day of the election) to the cost of voting. The results consistently point to a negative impact of voter turnout rates on indicators of urban environmental performance, life quality, and administrative efficiency. Interestingly, though, we find that only anticipated shocks to turnout affect the quality of elected mayors measured on a number of competence dimensions, compatibly with the hypothesis of a selection mechanism whereby parties choose candidates to maximize their chances of winning the elections based on their expectations on voter turnout rates (JEL D72, H72, C26).

Bargain Shopping: How Candidate Sex Lowers the Cost of Voting

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather L. Ondercin ◽  
Sarah A. Fulton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
District Level ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Female Candidate ◽  
Individual Candidate ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Of Voting ◽  
Political Decision Making ◽  
Woman Candidate

Previous research shows that candidate sex serves as a heuristic that lessens the informational burden of political decision making. Building upon this research, we investigate the heuristic effects of candidate sex on the decision to turnout to vote in an election. We posit that by providing ideological and nonideological information about the candidates, candidate sex serves as an informational shortcut that reduces the costs associated with voting and enhances the likelihood of voting in elections when a female candidate is present. Our expectations are supported, even after controlling for a variety of individual-, candidate- and district-level characteristics that are correlated with turnout. Individuals are more likely to turnout in elections featuring a woman candidate, and consistent with our expectations, these effects are especially strong for female Democrats, whose sex and party heuristics convey a consistent “liberal” cue. Our research offers theoretical and empirical contributions to the literature on gender, candidate heuristics, and voter turnout.

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