Applying Information Economics and Imprecise Probabilities to Data Collection in Design

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Matthew Aughenbaugh ◽  
Jay Ling ◽  
Christian J. J. Paredis
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Information Economics ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Information Collection ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Imprecise Probabilities ◽  
Current State ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Strength Characterization ◽  
Collection Phase

One important aspect of the engineering design process is the sequence of design decisions, each consisting of a formulation phase and a solution phase. As part of the decision formulation, engineers must decide what information to use to support the decision. Since information comes at a cost, a cost-benefit trade-off must be made. Previous work has considered these trade-offs in cases in which all relevant probability distributions were precisely known. However, engineers frequently must estimate these distributions by gathering sample data during the information collection phase of the decision process. In this paper, we introduce principles of information economics to guide decisions on information collection. We present a method that enables designers to bound the value of information in the case of unknown distributions by using imprecise probabilities to characterize the current state of information. We illustrate this method with an example material strength characterization for a pressure vessel design problem, in which we explore the basic performance, subtleties, and limitations of the method.

Mesoscale Material Strength Characterization for Use in Fracture Modeling

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Acton ◽  
Bahador Bahmani ◽  
Reza Abedi
Keyword(s):  
Material Property ◽  
Effective Properties ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Voronoi Tessellation ◽  
Strength Properties ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Fracture Modeling ◽  
Strength Characterization ◽  
Proportional Limit Stress

To accurately simulate fracture, it is necessary to account for small-scale randomness in the properties of a material. Apparent properties of Statistical Volume Elements (SVE), can be characterized below the scale of a Representative Volume Element (RVE). Apparent properties cannot be defined uniquely for an SVE, in the manner that unique effective properties can be defined for an RVE. Both constitutive behavior and material strength properties in SVE must be statistically characterized. The geometrical partitioning method can be critically important in affecting the probability distributions of mesoscale material property parameters. Here, a Voronoi tessellation based partitioning scheme is applied to generate SVE. Resulting material property distributions are compared with those from SVE generated by square partitioning. The proportional limit stress of the SVE is used to approximate SVE strength. Superposition of elastic results is used to obtain failure strength distributions from boundary conditions at variable angles of loading.

scholarly journals A Multicriteria Decision Model for Assessment of Failure Consequences in the RCM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo H. Alencar ◽  
Adiel T. de Almeida
Keyword(s):  
Failure Mode ◽  
Decision Model ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Maintenance Planning ◽  
Multiattribute Utility ◽  
Five Dimensions ◽  
Multicriteria Decision ◽  
Reliability Centered Maintenance ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
And Behavior

This paper proposes a multicriteria decision model based on MAUT (Multiattribute Utility Theory) incorporated into an RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) approach in order to provide a better assessment of the consequences of failure, allowing a more effective maintenance planning. MAUT provides an evaluation of probability distributions on each attribute as well as trade-offs involving lotteries. The model proposed takes advantage of such evaluations and it also restructures consequence groups established in an RCM approach into new five dimensions. As a result, overall indices of utility are computed for each failure mode analyzed. With these values, the ranking of the alternatives is established. The decision-maker’s preferences are taken into account so that the final result for each failure mode incorporates subjective aspects based on the decision-maker’s perceptions and behavior.

Predicting Psycho-educational Problems in Childhood

1978 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 148-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard S. Adelman
Keyword(s):  
State Of The Art ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Maintenance ◽  
Ethical Concerns ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Assessment Procedures ◽  
Mass Identification ◽  
Ethical Perspectives

Presented are (1) a brief synthesis of several key conceptual and methodological concerns and some ethical perspectives related to identification of psycho-educational problems and (2) conclusions regarding the current state of the art. The conceptual discussion focuses on differentiating prediction from identification and screening from diagnosis; three models used in developing assessment procedures also are presented. Methodologically, the minimal requirements for satisfactory research are described and current problems are highlighted. Three ethical perspectives are discussed; cost-benefit for the individual, models-motives-goals underlying practices, and cost-benefit for the culture. The current state of the art is seen as not supporting the efficacy of the widespread use of currently available procedures for mass screening. Given this point and the methodological and ethical concerns discussed, it is suggested that policy makers reallocate limited resources away from mass identification and toward health maintenance and other approaches to prevention and early-age intervention.

Experimental field exclosure of birds and bats in agricultural systems — Methodological insights, potential improvements, and cost-benefit trade-offs

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bea Maas ◽  
Sacha Heath ◽  
Ingo Grass ◽  
Camila Cassano ◽  
Alice Classen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Agricultural Systems ◽  
Experimental Field ◽  
Trade Offs

Sustainable Distribution Design: Contrasting Disposable, Recyclable, and Reusable Strategies for Packaging Materials Using a Total Cost Analysis With an Illustration of Milk Distribution

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Satya Kanaka Nagendra Jayanty ◽  
William J. Sawaya ◽  
Michael D. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Packaging Materials ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Specific Product ◽  
Cost Structures ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Total Cost Analysis ◽  
Plastic Containers

Engineers, policy makers, and managers have shown increasing interest in increasing the sustainability of products over their complete lifecycles and also from the ‘cradle to grave’ or from production to the disposal of each specific product. However, a significant amount of material is disposed of in landfills rather than being reused in some form. A sizeable proportion of the products being dumped in landfills consist of packaging materials for consumable products. Technological advances in plastics, packaging, cleaning, logistics, and new environmental awareness and understanding may have altered the cost structures surrounding the lifecycle use and disposal costs of many materials and products resulting in different cost-benefit trade-offs. An explicit and well-informed economic analysis of reusing certain containers might change current practices and results in significantly less waste disposal in landfills and in less consumption of resources for manufacturing packaging materials. This work presents a method for calculating the costs associated with a complete process of implementing a system to reuse plastic containers for food products. Specifically, the different relative costs of using a container and then either disposing of it in a landfill, recycling the material, or reconditioning the container for reuse and then reusing it are compared explicitly. Specific numbers and values are calculated for the case of plastic milk bottles to demonstrate the complicated interactions and the feasibility of such a strategy.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ari R. Joffe
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Care Systems

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population's movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to “flatten the curve” of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. The initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects (i.e., groupthink). Over time, important information emerged relevant to the modeling, including the lower infection fatality rate (median 0.23%), clarification of high-risk groups (specifically, those 70 years of age and older), lower herd immunity thresholds (likely 20–40% population immunity), and the difficult exit strategies. In addition, information emerged on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, adversely affecting many millions of people with poverty, food insecurity, loneliness, unemployment, school closures, and interrupted healthcare. Raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths were difficult to interpret, and may be tempered by information placing the number of COVID-19 deaths in proper context and perspective relative to background rates. Considering this information, a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 finds that lockdowns are far more harmful to public health (at least 5–10 times so in terms of wellbeing years) than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. Progress in the response to COVID-19 depends on considering the trade-offs discussed here that determine the wellbeing of populations. I close with some suggestions for moving forward, including focused protection of those truly at high risk, opening of schools, and building back better with a economy.

scholarly journals Hydrodynamic trait coordination and cost-benefit trade-offs throughout the isohydric-anisohydric continuum in trees

Ecohydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. e2041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Golnazalsadat Mirfenderesgi ◽  
Ashley M. Matheny ◽  
Gil Bohrer
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Trade Offs

A systematic review of the literature on supply chain agility

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bharat Singh Patel ◽  
Murali Sambasivan
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Supply Chain Agility ◽  
Agility Assessment ◽  
Future Research Directions

Purpose The purpose of this study is to critically examine the scholarly articles associated Murali Sambasivan with the diverse aspects of supply chain agility (SCA). The review highlights research insights, existing gaps and future research directions that can help academicians and practitioners gain a comprehensive understanding of SCA. Design/methodology/approach The present study has adopted author co-citation analysis as the research methodology, with a view to thoroughly investigating the good-quality articles related to SCA that have been published over a period of 22 years (1999-2020). In this study, 126 research papers on SCA – featuring diverse aspects of agility – from various reputed journals have been examined, analysed and assimilated. Findings The salient findings of this research are, namely, agility is different from other similar concepts, such as flexibility, leanness, adaptability and resilience; of the 13 dimensions of agility discussed in the literature, the prominent ones are quickness, responsiveness, competency and flexibility; literature related to SCA can be categorised as related to modelling the enablers, agility assessment, agility implementation, leagility and agility maximisation. This research proposes a more practical definition and framework for SCA. The probable areas for future research are, namely, impediments to agility, effective approaches to agility assessment, cost-benefit trade-offs to be considered whilst implementing agility, empirical research to validate the framework and SCA in the domain of healthcare and disaster relief supply chains. Practical implications This paper provides substantial insights to practitioners who primarily focus on measuring and implementing agility in the supply chain. The findings of this study will help the supply chain manager gain a better idea about how to become competitive in today’s dynamic and turbulent business environment. Originality/value The originality of this study is in: comprehensively identifying the various issues related to SCA, such as related concepts, definitions, dimensions and different categories of studies covered in literature, proposing a new definition and framework for SCA and identifying potential areas for future research, to provide deeper insights into the subject and highlight areas for future research.

Decision-Making Methods in MIS Outsourcing

2011 ◽  
pp. 134-152
Author(s):  
Jeanette Nasem Morgan
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Logic ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Information Services ◽  
Data Warehouses ◽  
Government Decision ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Decision Making Processes

This chapter commences with a discussion of corporate and government decision-making processes and the management sciences that support development of decisions. Special decision-making considerations, trade-offs analyses, and cost-benefit studies all figure into decisions that result in outsourcing. Technologies that support different methods of decision-making include data warehouses and data mining, rules-based logic, heuristical processes, fuzzy logic, and expert-based reasoning are presented. The chapter presents case studies and current and evolving technologies. The following sections will address the decision-making methods that are used in considering, executing and monitoring outsourced MIS projects or in service lines related to provision of information services in the organization.

scholarly journals A Robust Dynamic Classifier Selection Approach for Hyperspectral Images with Imprecise Label Information

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (18) ◽  
pp. 5262
Author(s):  
Meizhu Li ◽  
Shaoguang Huang ◽  
Jasper De Bock ◽  
Gert de Cooman ◽  
Aleksandra Pižurica
Keyword(s):  
Hyperspectral Image ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Imprecise Probabilities ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Classifier Selection ◽  
Training Samples ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Label Information ◽  
Dynamic Classifier Selection ◽  
The Individual

Supervised hyperspectral image (HSI) classification relies on accurate label information. However, it is not always possible to collect perfectly accurate labels for training samples. This motivates the development of classifiers that are sufficiently robust to some reasonable amounts of errors in data labels. Despite the growing importance of this aspect, it has not been sufficiently studied in the literature yet. In this paper, we analyze the effect of erroneous sample labels on probability distributions of the principal components of HSIs, and provide in this way a statistical analysis of the resulting uncertainty in classifiers. Building on the theory of imprecise probabilities, we develop a novel robust dynamic classifier selection (R-DCS) model for data classification with erroneous labels. Particularly, spectral and spatial features are extracted from HSIs to construct two individual classifiers for the dynamic selection, respectively. The proposed R-DCS model is based on the robustness of the classifiers’ predictions: the extent to which a classifier can be altered without changing its prediction. We provide three possible selection strategies for the proposed model with different computational complexities and apply them on three benchmark data sets. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the individual classifiers it selects from and is more robust to errors in labels compared to widely adopted approaches.

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