The Methodology of Predictive Design Analysis

Author(s):  
Martin Eriksson

From an engineering point of view, uncertainty is present in all areas of design (products, processes and organizations). Computer-based design analysis, here confined to quantitative computer-based structural design analysis within mechanical engineering, serves as an important source of information in decisions taken during the design activity; importantly, it aims at giving confidence in critical design results. It is moreover nowadays used on all levels of concretization of the product-to-be throughout the development process. It must therefore address different uncertainties and errors during the whole development process. To that end, the concept of predictive design analysis (PDA) was introduced. The initial version of PDA treated primarily uncertainties of aleatory nature and was confined to product/technology-related issues. Today a broader perspective on the uncertainties is needed, and it is important to develop reliable design analysis methods because of the increasing use of design analysis by both analysts and engineering designers. Hence it is therefore necessary to extend the PDA framework into a full-blown methodology. PDA is a specific computer-based design analysis methodology that supports the systematic handling of uncertainties and errors during the computer-based design analysis activity throughout the whole development of the artifact. Such a methodology includes: Not only aleatory uncertainties, but also epistemic uncertainties connected with factors affecting the design analysis activities; Operationally efficient and effective integration between the engineering design and design analysis activities; Quality assurance aspects in terms of quality checks, verification and validation activities taking physical testing into account; Progress monitoring throughout all design analysis activities from clarification to completion; Traceability in utilized information, technologies and established results; Information and knowledge re-use for an improved uncertainty treatment in future design analysis activities through establishment of lessons learned and best practice documentation as well as methodology development. In this paper the synthesis of the PDA methodology is reported. Starting from an elaboration on different concepts of uncertainty, the constituent elements of the extended PDA methodology are presented. The methodology is then illustrated with a case study.

Author(s):  
Sa´ndor Vajna ◽  
Steffen Clement ◽  
Andre´ Jordan

The paper presents a new approach aiming at modeling and supporting the design activity as the substantial activity within the product development process. The Autogenetic Design Theory facilitates the integration of intuition, creativity and artificial intelligence into the conventional design process. To this end, a phase-like allocation of the design process is assumed as the essential structure and an evolutionary algorithm is integrated as the core facilitating purposeful searching and combining. Hence, the flow of the design process can be influenced as all requirements can be included and, on the other hand, intuition and creativity are ensured through the evolutionary algorithm. The example of the shift fork, which was described in the paper, shows how ADT can support variant design. Next steps will include the application of the ADT to the other types of design. The optimisation of the shift fork was the first step towards a computer-based implementation of the ADT.


Author(s):  
K. R. Ovchinnikova

The relevance of the issue under consideration in the article is connected with the confusion in scientific publications of the concepts of “electronic educational materials” and “electronic educational resources”. The article discusses the concept of “electronic educational materials” from the perspective of general systems theory. And their system character is proved. This allows them to be represented as a single complex of structured information of a specific subject area and didactic materials. These didactic materials support the learning process at all stages of its didactic cycle in accordance with the chosen learning technology based on the didactic capabilities of information technologies. It is concluded that the system of high school electronic materials allows to expand the boundaries of the design activity of the teacher, provide management of the student’s thinking activity, to implement a competence approach to the learning process at university


i-com ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-32
Author(s):  
Daniel Buschek ◽  
Charlotte Anlauff ◽  
Florian Lachner

Abstract This paper reflects on a case study of a user-centred concept development process for a Machine Learning (ML) based design tool, conducted at an industry partner. The resulting concept uses ML to match graphical user interface elements in sketches on paper to their digital counterparts to create consistent wireframes. A user study (N=20) with a working prototype shows that this concept is preferred by designers, compared to the previous manual procedure. Reflecting on our process and findings we discuss lessons learned for developing ML tools that respect practitioners’ needs and practices.


2021 ◽  
pp. 108602662110286
Author(s):  
Andrew Spicer ◽  
Marcus Wagner ◽  
Maurizio Zollo

In this introduction, we first review the lessons learned in development economics about the ability of randomized control trials to analyse what Duflo refers to as the “plumbing problems” of policy implementation, as opposed to “engineering problems” of policy design. We then examine the papers published within this special issue from a plumbing-based perspective to highlight the benefits of the co-creation of knowledge in corporate sustainability through a field-based experimental agenda. We finally propose that field-based experiments can radically influence the future development of our (and related) fields of inquiry in three ways: (1) focusing on the implementation processes of sustainability strategies, (2) shifting attention from the analysis of past events to the design of future actions, and (3) yielding our role as sole owners of the knowledge development process and agreeing to shared ownership with the organizations we study.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.. Francis-LaCroix ◽  
D.. Seetaram

Abstract Trinidad and Tobago offshore platforms have been producing oil and natural gas for over a century. Current production of over 1500 Bcf of natural gas per year (Administration, 2013) is due to extensive reserves in oil and gas. More than eighteen of these wells are high-producing wells, producing in excess of 150 MMcf per day. Due to their large production rates, these wells utilize unconventionally large tubulars 5- and 7-in. Furthermore, as is inherent with producing gas, there are many challenges with the production. One major challenge occurs when wells become liquid loaded. As gas wells age, they produce more liquids, namely brine and condensate. Depending on flow conditions, the produced liquids can accumulate and induce a hydrostatic head pressure that is too high to be overcome by the flowing gas rates. Applying surfactants that generate foam can facilitate the unloading of these wells and restore gas production. Although the foaming process is very cost effective, its application to high-producing gas wells in Trinidad has always been problematic for the following reasons: Some of these producers are horizontal wells, or wells with large deviation angles.They were completed without pre-installed capillary strings.They are completed with large tubing diameters (5.75 in., 7 in.). Recognizing that the above three factors posed challenges to successful foam applications, major emphasis and research was directed toward this endeavor to realize the buried revenue, i.e., the recovery of the well's potential to produce natural gas. This research can also lead to the application of learnings from the first success to develop treatment for additional wells, which translates to a revenue boost to the client and the Trinidad economy. Successful treatments can also be used as correlations to establish an industry best practice for the treatment of similarly completed wells. This paper will highlight the successes realized from the treatment of three wells. It will also highlight the anomalies encountered during the treatment process, as well as the lessons learned from this treatment.


Author(s):  
David W. Rosen

Abstract Features are meaningful abstractions of geometry that engineers use to reason about components, products, and processes. For design activity, features are design primitives, serve as the basis for product representations, and can incorporate information relevant to life-cycle activities such as manufacturing. Research on feature-based design has matured to the point that results are being incorporated into commercial CAD systems. The intent here is to classify feature-based design literature to provide a solid historical basis for present research and to identify promising research directions that will affect computer-based design tools within the next few years. Applications of feature-based design and technologies of feature representations are reviewed. Open research issues are identified and put in the context of past and current work. Four hypotheses are proposed as challenges for future research: two on the existence of fundamental sub-feature elements and relationships for features, one that presents a new definition of design features, and one that argues for the successful development of concurrent engineering languages. Evidence for these hypotheses is provided from recent research results and from speculation about the future of feature-based design.


Author(s):  
Nora Abdelrahman Ibrahim

Terrorism and violent extremism have undoubtedly become among the top security concerns of the 21st century. Despite a robust agenda of counterterrorism since the September 11, 2001 attacks, the evolution of global terrorism has continued to outpace the policy responses that have tried to address it. Recent trends such as the foreign fighter phenomenon, the rampant spread of extremist ideologies online and within communities, and a dramatic increase in terrorist incidents worldwide, have led to a recognition that “traditional” counterterrorism efforts are insufficient and ineffective in combatting these phenomena. Consequently, the focus of policy and practice has shifted towards countering violent extremism by addressing the drivers of radicalization to curb recruitment to extremist groups. Within this context, the field of countering violent extremism (CVE) has garnered attention from both the academic and policy-making worlds. While the CVE field holds promise as a significant development in counterterrorism, its policy and practice are complicated by several challenges that undermine the success of its initiatives. Building resilience to violent extremism is continuously challenged by an overly securitized narrative and unintended consequences of previous policies and practices, including divisive social undercurrents like Islamophobia, xenophobia, and far-right sentiments. These by-products make it increasingly difficult to mobilize a whole of society response that is so critical to the success and sustainability of CVE initiatives. This research project addresses these policy challenges by drawing on the CVE strategies of Canada, the US, the UK, and Denmark to collect best practice and lessons learned in order to outline a way forward. 


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Abu-Eida ◽  
Salem Al-Sabea ◽  
Milan Patra ◽  
Bader Akbar ◽  
Kutbuddin Bhatia ◽  
...  

Abstract The Minagish field in West Kuwait is a high potential field which poses several challenges in terms of hydrocarbon flow assurance through highly depleted tight carbonate intervals with uneven reservoir quality and curtailed mobility. These conditions have shifted the field development from vertical to horizontal wellbore completions. Achieving complete wellbore coverage is a challenge for any frac treatment performed in a long openhole lateral with disparities in reservoir characteristics. The fluid will flow into the path of least resistance leaving large portions of the formation untreated. As a result, economic fracturing treatment options dwindle significantly, thus reservoir stimulation results are not always optimum. A multistage fracturing technique using Integrated Dynamic Diversion (IDD) has been performed first time in West Kuwait field well. The process uses active fluid energy to divert flow into a specific fracture point in the lateral, which can initiate and precisely place a fracture. The process uses two self-directed fluid streams: one inside the pipe and one in the annulus. The process mixes the two fluids downhole with high energy to form a consistent controllable mixture. The technique includes pinpoint fluid jetting at the point of interest, followed by in-situ HCL based crosslinked systems employed for improving individual stage targets. The IDD diversion shifts the fracture to unstimulated areas to create complex fractures which increases reservoir contact volume and improved overall conductivity in the lateral. The kinetic and chemical diversion of the IDD methodology is highly critical to control fluid loss in depleted intervals and results in enhanced stimulation. Pumping a frac treatment in openhole without control would tend to initiate a longitudinal fracture along the wellbore and may restrict productivity. By using specialized completion tools with nozzles at the end of the treating string, a new pinpoint process has been employed to initiate a transverse fracture plane in IDD applications. Proper candidate selection and fluid combination with in-situ crosslink acid effectively plug the fracture generated previously and generate pressure high enough to initiate another fracture for further ramification. By combining these processes into one continuous operation, the use of wireline/coiled tubing for jetting, plug setting and milling is eliminated, making the new multistage completion technology economical for these depleted wells. The application of the IDD methodology is a fit-for-purpose solution to address the unique challenges of openhole operations, formation technical difficulties, high-stakes economics, and untapped high potential from intermittent reservoirs. The paper will present post-operation results of this completion from all fractured zones along the lateral and will describe the lessons learned in implementation of this methodology which can be considered as best practice for application in similar challenges in other fields.


2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 232-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debbie Vigar-Ellis ◽  
John Bredican

With the dramatic increase in smartphone usage and the consequent increase in applications (apps) for these smartphones, organisations are constantly looking for new apps to offer customers as well as employees.  Information Systems (IS) departments of organisations have traditionally been tasked with the acquisition and/or development of such information technologies within organisations.  This research aimed to determine from IS managers, the smartphone app usage in firms, the sources of app ideas and the locations for app development.  It also investigated various aspects of the success or otherwise of the development process.  Results indicate that while most ideas for apps currently come from IS and marketing departments within the organisation, and development of apps is also done mainly within the organisation , these development strategies are not necessarily the most effective.  Managerial implications are discussed.


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