Benefit of Measurements and Structural Reliability Analysis for Wellhead Fatigue

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods have been applied to marine and offshore structures for decades. SRA has proven useful in life extension exercises and inspection planning of existing offshore structures. It is also a useful tool in code development, where the reliability level provided by the code is calculated by SRA and calibrated to a target failure probability. The current analysis methods for wellhead fatigue are associated with high sensitivity to variations in some input parameters. Some of these input parameters are difficult to assess, and sensitivity screening is often needed and the worst case is then typically used as a basis for the analysis. The degree of conservatism becomes difficult to quantify, and it is therefore equally difficult to find justification to avoid worst case assumptions. By applying SRA to the problem of wellhead fatigue, the input parameters are accounted for with their associated uncertainty given by probability distributions. In performing SRA all uncertainties are considered simultaneously, and the probability of fatigue failure is estimated and the conservatism is thereby quantified. In addition SRA also provides so-called uncertainty importance factors. These represent a relative quantification of which input parameter uncertainties contribute the most to the overall failure probability, and may serve well as guidance on where possible effort to reduce the uncertainty preferably should be made. For instance, instrumentation may be used to measure the actual structural response and thus eliminate the uncertainty that is associated with response calculations. Clearly measurements obtained from an instrumented system will have its own uncertainty. Other options could be to perform specific fatigue capacity testing or pay increased attention to logging of critical operational parameters such as the cement level in the annulus between the conductor and surface casing. This article deals with the use of measurements for fatigue life estimation. Continuous measurements of the BOP motion during the drilling operations have been obtained for a subsea well in the North Sea. These measurements are used both in conventional (deterministic) analysis and in SRA (probabilistic analysis) for fatigue in the wellhead system. From the deterministic analysis improved fatigue life results are obtained if the measured response replaces the response obtained by analysis. Furthermore, SRA is used to evaluate the appropriate magnitude of the design fatigue factor when fatigue analysis is based on measured response. It is believed that the benefit from measurements and SRA serve as an improved input to the decision making process in the event of life extension of existing subsea wells.