scholarly journals Comparative Study of Structural Reliability Assessment Methods for Fixed Offshore Structures

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Mat Soom ◽  
M.K. Abu Husain ◽  
N.I. Mohd Zaki ◽  
N.A. Mukhlas ◽  
S.Z.A. Syed Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Design Assessment ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Structural Deterioration

The oil and gas sector has recognised structural integrity assessment of ageing platform for prospective life extension as a rising concern, particularly in encountering the randomness of the harsh ocean environments. This condition leads to uncertainty in wave-in-deck load estimates and a high load level being imposed on offshore structures. This emphasises the necessity of enhanced reliability, as failure might result in inaccessibility because of the uncertainties related to long-distance services, such as accuracy of predictions of loads and responses. Even though the established guidelines present a fundamental assessment, additionally, comprehensive rules are required. This paper performed a reliability analysis incorporating practical approaches that can more accurately represent time-dependent structural deterioration. The following two procedures have been adopted by a majority of significant oil and gas operators to monitor the safety and integrity of these structures: a) Ultimate Strength Assessment (USA) method and b) Reliability Design Assessment (ReDA) method. A comparison of these two reliability approaches was performed on selected ageing jacket structures in the region of the Malaysian sea. The comparative findings, namely, reserve strength ratio (RSR) at various years of the return period (RP) and ratio value for risk of failure regarding the probability of failure (POF), provided a check and balance in strengthening confidence in the results. The findings showed that the structural components might safely survive either using the USA and ReDA method in such conditions, as the reliability indexes were determined to be satisfactory compared to allowable values from ISO 19902 design specifications. Therefore, these evaluations were determined to control the risk level of the structure during the remaining of its lifetime and undertake cost-effective inspections or mitigation strategies when necessary.

scholarly journals LIFETIME EXTENSION OF AGEING OFFSHORE STRUCTURES BY GLOBAL ULTIMATE STRENGTH ASSESSMENT (GUSA)

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezanizam Mat Soom ◽  
Mohd Khairi Abu Husain ◽  
Noor Irza Mohd Zaki ◽  
M Nasrul Kamal M Nor ◽  
G. Najafian
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Continuous Production ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Strength Assessment ◽  
Remaining Service Life ◽  
Oil And Gas Fields ◽  
Gas Fields ◽  
Extension Evaluation

Malaysia is the second largest oil and gas producer in Southeast Asia. Majority ofjacket platforms in Malaysia have exceeded their design life with various types of underwaterstructure irregularities. Therefore, it is essential to address the reliability of the jacket platformsin Malaysia due to ageing, increasing environmental loading and demand to prolong theproduction for a further 25 years. The main purpose of this analyses is to determine thestructure’s risk level over its remaining service life which is a vital information in managingageing facilities to cater for the demand of continuous production. Global Ultimate StrengthAssessment (GUSA) methodology was used to support detailed reassessment applied inmanaging safety, integrity analyses and reliability by evaluating the existing platform’s loading.It is a tool for high-end analysis of structures for Risk-based Assessment (RBA). In this paper,the reassessment of an ageing platform over 30-year-old, still in production is presented todemonstrate GUSA capability to perform the platform’s life extension evaluation. The outcomefrom these analyses can effectively assist in understanding the structure platform’s failuremechanism and correctly identify mitigation actions required. As part of the analyses, non-linearanalysis and probabilistic model as practiced in the industry were used in order to get ReserveStrength Ratio (RSR) and Annual Probability of Failure (POF) results. The accuracy andcomprehensiveness of this method will assist the industry, especially oil and gas fields’ operators,in decision-making, specifically in identifying problem-oriented-solutions as part of theirbusiness risk management in managing ageing facilities.

An Oil Field Structural Integrity Assessment for Re-Qualification and Life Extension

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abe Nezamian ◽  
Joshua Altmann
Keyword(s):  
Weight Control ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Original Design ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Design Life

The ageing of offshore infrastructure presents a constant and growing challenge for operators. Ageing is characterised by deterioration, change in operational conditions or accidental damages which, in the severe operational environment offshore, can be significant with serious consequences for installation integrity if not managed adequately and efficiently. An oil field consisting of twelve well head platforms, a living quarter platform (XQ), a flare platform (XFP) and a processing platform (XPA) are the focus of this paper, providing an overview of the integrity assessment process. In order to ensure technical and operational integrity of these ageing facilities, the fitness for service of these offshore structures needs to be maintained. Assessments of the structural integrity of thirteen identified platforms under existing conditions were undertaken as these platforms are either nearing the end of their design life or have exceeded more than 50% of their design life. Information on history, characteristic data, condition data and inspection results were collected to assess the current state and to predict the future state of the facility for possible life extension. The information included but was not limited to as built data, brown fields modifications, additional risers and clamp-on conductors and incorporation of subsea and topside inspection findings. In-service integrity assessments, pushover analyses, corrosion control and cathodic protection assessments and weight control reports were completed to evaluate the integrity of these facilities for requalification to 2019 and life extension to 2030. The analytical models and calculations were updated based on the most recent inspection results and weight control reports. A requalification and life extension report was prepared for each platform to outline the performance criteria acceptance to achieve requalification until 2019 and life extension until 2030. This paper documents the methodology to assess the platform structural integrity in order to evaluate platform integrity for the remaining and extended design life. An overview of various aspects of ageing related to these offshore facilities, representing risk to the integrity, the required procedures and re assessment criteria for deciding on life extension of these facilities is presented. This paper also provides an overall view of the structural requirements, justifications and calibrations of the original design for the life extension to maintain the safety level by means of maintenance and inspection programs balancing the ageing mechanisms and improving the reliability of assessment results.

Wellhead Fatigue Analysis Method: Benefits of a Structural Reliability Analysis Approach

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Lorents Reinås ◽  
Jan Mathisen
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Fatigue Analysis ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Inspection Planning ◽  
Structural Reliability Analysis ◽  
Extreme Load ◽  
Input Parameters

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods have been applied to marine and offshore structures for decades. SRA has proven useful in life extension exercises and inspection planning of existing offshore structures. It is also a useful tool in code development, where the reliability level provided by the code is calibrated to a target failure probability obtained by SRA. This applies both to extreme load situations and also to a structural system under the influence of a time dependent degradation process such as fatigue. The current analysis methods suggested for service life estimation of subsea wells are deterministic, and these analyses are associated with high sensitivity to variations in input parameters. Thus sensitivity screening is often recommended for certain input parameters, and the worst case is then typically used as a basis for the analysis. The associated level of conservatism embedded in results from a deterministic analysis is not quantified, and it is therefore difficult to know and to justify if unnecessary conservatism can be removed from the calculations. By applying SRA to a wellhead fatigue analysis, the input parameters are accounted for with their associated uncertainty given by probability distributions. Analysis results can be generated by use of Monte-Carlo simulations or FORM/SORM (first/second order reliability methods), accounting for the full scatter of system relations and input variations. The level of conservatism can then be quantified and evaluated versus an acceptable probability of failure. This article presents results from a SRA of a fictitious but still realistic well model, including the main assumptions that were made, and discusses how SRA can be applied to a wellhead fatigue analysis. Global load analyses and local stress calculations were carried out prior to the SRA, and a response surface technique was used to interpolate on these results. This analysis has been limited to two hotspots located in each of the two main load bearing members of the wellhead system. The SRA provides a probability of failure estimate that may be used to give better decision support in the event of life extension of existing subsea wells. In addition, a relative uncertainty ranking of input variables provides insight into the problem and knowledge about where risk reducing efforts should be made to reduce the uncertainty. It should be noted that most attention has been given to the method development, and that more comprehensive analysis work and assessment of specific input is needed in a real case.

scholarly journals Development of Risk-Reliability Based Underwater Inspection for Fixed Offshore Platforms in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
pp. 05002
Author(s):  
Ricky L. Tawekal ◽  
Faisal D. Purnawarman ◽  
Yati Muliati
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Damage Mechanism ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
American Petroleum Institute ◽  
Offshore Platform ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Offshore Platforms ◽  
Fixed Offshore Platform

In RBUI method, platform with higher risk level will need inspection done more intensively than those with lower risk level. However, the probability of failure (PoF) evaluation in RBUI method is usually carried out in semi quantitative way by comparing failure parameters associated with the same damage mechanism between a group of platforms located in the same area. Therefore, RBUI will not be effective for platforms spread in distant areas where failure parameter associated with the same damage mechanism may not be the same. The existing standard, American Petroleum Institute, Recommended Practice for Structural Integrity Management of Fixed Offshore Structures (API RP-2SIM), is limited on the general instructions in determining the risk value of a platform, yet it does not provide a detail instruction on how determining the Probability of Failure (PoF) of platform. In this paper, the PoF is determined quantitatively by calculating structural reliability index based on structural collapse failure mode, thus the method in determining the inspection schedule is called Risk-Reliability Based Underwater Inspection (RReBUI). Models of 3-legs jacket fixed offshore platform in Java Sea and 4-legs jacket fixed offshore platform in Natuna Sea are used to study the implementation of RReBUI.

Benefit of Measurements and Structural Reliability Analysis for Wellhead Fatigue

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Hørte ◽  
Massimiliano Russo ◽  
Michael Macke ◽  
Lorents Reinås
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Life ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Deterministic Analysis ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Measured Response

Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA) methods have been applied to marine and offshore structures for decades. SRA has proven useful in life extension exercises and inspection planning of existing offshore structures. It is also a useful tool in code development, where the reliability level provided by the code is calculated by SRA and calibrated to a target failure probability. The current analysis methods for wellhead fatigue are associated with high sensitivity to variations in some input parameters. Some of these input parameters are difficult to assess, and sensitivity screening is often needed and the worst case is then typically used as a basis for the analysis. The degree of conservatism becomes difficult to quantify, and it is therefore equally difficult to find justification to avoid worst case assumptions. By applying SRA to the problem of wellhead fatigue, the input parameters are accounted for with their associated uncertainty given by probability distributions. In performing SRA all uncertainties are considered simultaneously, and the probability of fatigue failure is estimated and the conservatism is thereby quantified. In addition SRA also provides so-called uncertainty importance factors. These represent a relative quantification of which input parameter uncertainties contribute the most to the overall failure probability, and may serve well as guidance on where possible effort to reduce the uncertainty preferably should be made. For instance, instrumentation may be used to measure the actual structural response and thus eliminate the uncertainty that is associated with response calculations. Clearly measurements obtained from an instrumented system will have its own uncertainty. Other options could be to perform specific fatigue capacity testing or pay increased attention to logging of critical operational parameters such as the cement level in the annulus between the conductor and surface casing. This article deals with the use of measurements for fatigue life estimation. Continuous measurements of the BOP motion during the drilling operations have been obtained for a subsea well in the North Sea. These measurements are used both in conventional (deterministic) analysis and in SRA (probabilistic analysis) for fatigue in the wellhead system. From the deterministic analysis improved fatigue life results are obtained if the measured response replaces the response obtained by analysis. Furthermore, SRA is used to evaluate the appropriate magnitude of the design fatigue factor when fatigue analysis is based on measured response. It is believed that the benefit from measurements and SRA serve as an improved input to the decision making process in the event of life extension of existing subsea wells.

Risk Based Integrity Assessment and Life Extension Procedure for Subsea Wellhead Connectors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Sigurdsson ◽  
T. Hørte ◽  
M. Macke ◽  
A. Wormsen ◽  
L. Reinås
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Failure ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Load Level ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Well Integrity ◽  
Structural Capacity ◽  
Drilling Operations ◽  
Integrity Risk

Abstract Subsea Wellheads are the male part of an 18 3/4” bore connector used for connecting subsea components such as drilling BOP, XT or Workover systems equipped with a female counterpart — a wellhead connector. Subsea wellheads have an external locking profile for engaging a preloaded wellhead connector with matching internal profile. When the connector is locked subsea a metal-to-metal sealing is obtained and a structural conduit is formed. The details of the subsea wellhead profile are specified by the wellhead user and the standarisedH4 hub has a widespread use. In terms of well integrity, the wellhead connector is a barrier element during both well construction (drilling) activities and life of field (production). Due to the nature of subsea drilling operations a wellhead connector will be subjected to external loads. Fatigue and plastic collapse are therefore two potential failure modes. These two failure modes are due to the cyclic nature of the loads and the potential for accidental and extreme single loads respectively. Establishing the safe load level that the wellhead connector has structural capacity to handle without failure can be done by deterministic engineering methods. Similarly, a deterministic calculated safe fatigue life is the use limit preventing fatigue failure, assuming no inspections. Probabilistic engineering method; Structural Reliability Analysis (SRA), can be applied to a subsea wellhead connector to establish the probability of fatigue failure (PoF). Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is a probabilistic analysis procedure that requires quantified PoF and Consequence of Failure (CoF). The RBI outcome may be used to optimized inspection plans to ensure a safe PoF target level. The RBI methodology is widely accepted, and guidance can be found in several standards. Subsea wellheads are normally classified as un-inspectable. During drilling operations commencement, the uppermost section of the wellhead (high pressure housing including H4 hub profile) will be visible and accessible thus allowing for inspection. This uppermost section may also accessible for inspection when a wellhead connector is locked on. From an SRA basis a generic RBI procedure applicable to subsea wellheads are proposed and established for a generic case of a 27” mandrel with a H4 hub. This paper then proceeds to providing the maximum non detectable flaw size performance required for a wellhead inspection tool/method to be efficient. The importance of accidental load and cyclic load magnitude and uncertainty is shown to impact this conclusion. The potential inspectional value of performing BOP connector leak test at regular intervals during the drilling operation has also been investigated and shown to be conditionally limited. This paper proposes a procedure for application of RBI to the problem of achieving life extension of a wellhead external locking profile while connected to a wellhead connector. The objective is to propose minimum performance requirements for the inspection tool/method to be efficient. Finally, the potential impact of RBI results in a well integrity risk assessment is covered.

scholarly journals Analysis and Comparison of Long-Distance Pipeline Failures

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lianshuang Dai ◽  
Dongpo Wang ◽  
Ting Wang ◽  
Qingshan Feng ◽  
Xinqi Yang
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Effectiveness ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Safety Technology ◽  
Pipeline Management ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Pipeline Failures ◽  
Pipeline Safety

The analysis results of long-distance oil and gas pipeline failures are important for the industry and can be the basis of risk analysis, integrity assessment, and management improvement for pipeline operators. Through analysis and comparison of the statistical results of the United States, Europe, the UK, and PetroChina in pipeline failure frequencies, causes, consequences, similarities, and differences of pipeline management, focusing points and management effectiveness are given. Suggestions on long-distance pipeline safety technology and management in China are proposed.

State of Art in Life Extension of Existing Offshore Structures

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abe Nezamian ◽  
Robert J. Nicolson ◽  
Dorel Iosif
Keyword(s):  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Operational Environment ◽  
Original Design ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Offshore Installations ◽  
State Of Art

A large number of the old oil and gas facilities have reached or exceeded their initial design life. With a continued requirement to produce oil or gas, either from the original fields or as a base for neighbouring subsea completions, many of these respective offshore installations are likely to remain operational for a period of time in the foreseeable future. The ageing offshore infrastructure presents a constant and growing challenge. Ageing is characterised by deterioration, change in operational conditions or accidental damages which, in the severe operational environment offshore, can be significant with serious consequences for installation integrity if not managed adequately and efficiently. In order to ensure technical and operational integrity of these ageing facilities, the fitness for service of these offshore structures should be maintained. The maintenance of structural integrity is a significant consideration in the safety management and life extension of offshore installations. Detailed integrity assessments are needed to demonstrate that there is sufficient technical, operational and organisational integrity to continue safe operation throughout a life extension. Information on history, characteristic data, condition data and inspection results are required to assess the current state and to predict the future state of the facility and the possible life extension. This paper presents state of art practices in life extension of existing offshore structures and an overview of various aspects of ageing related to offshore facilities, represented risk to the integrity of a facility and the required procedures and re assessment criteria for deciding on life extension. This paper also provides an overall view in the structural requirements, justifications and calibrations of the original design for the life extension to maintain the safety level by means of a maintenance and inspection programs balancing the ageing mechanisms and improving the reliability of assessment results.

Integrity Assessment, Repair and Verification of Fitness for Service of a Damaged Offshore Platform Radio Tower

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abe Nezamian ◽  
Robert J. Nicolson
Keyword(s):  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Thickness Measurement ◽  
Initial Assessment ◽  
Structural Members ◽  
Minimum Thickness ◽  
Acceptance Criteria ◽  
Integrity Assessment

The maintenance of structural integrity is a significant consideration in the safety management of offshore installations. This paper presents an integrated approach for fitness-for-service evaluation of a deteriorating offshore radio tower structure. The approach is intended to assist engineers in assessing the overall fitness and survivability of aged offshore structures. A 43 m tall radio tower on an oil and gas platform located offshore Australia was reported with areas of heavy and medium corrosion of structural members. Severe corrosion in one leg of the radio tower had caused an obvious hole (extensive damage) through the leg at approximately 36m above the main deck and raised structural integrity concerns with the tower. The platform had been shut down due to concerns of a possible collapse of the tower. An assessment/repair program was developed to assure the short term integrity of the tower with minimal repair works. The integrity of the critically damaged leg had been temporarily restored using a clamped sleeve repair to allow progress with the inspection / thickness measurement of the corroded areas of the tower. As part of the fitness-for-service assessment, the minimum thickness acceptance criteria for the suspected corroded structural members were developed to enable initial assessment of the measured remaining wall thicknesses of the corroded member. Fitness for service integrity assessment requirements were developed to assess the locations that did not meet the minimum thickness criteria. The integrity requirements were adopted based on the average measured wall thickness, sensitivity structural analyses for reduced wind speeds for shorter life spans, and stability/survival assessment of the tower. An inspection program was carried out for the suspected locations and any additional locations identified during the inspection process. The inspection measurements were assessed against the fitness-for-service criteria. Where the measurements indicated that members did not meet the acceptance criteria temporary repairs were specified. Consequently, the tower fitness-for-service was found sustainable for up to 12 months until a more permanent repair or replacement of the tower could be completed, thus enabling the platform to resume normal operations.

Life Extension of Ageing Offshore Structures: A Framework for Remaining Life Estimation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashish Aeran ◽  
Sudath C. Siriwardane ◽  
Ove Mikkelsen ◽  
Ivar Langen
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Localized Corrosion ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Remaining Life ◽  
Structural Degradation ◽  
Life Estimation

The remaining life estimation of ageing structures has been identified as a growing challenge in the oil and gas industry. Although the available guidelines provide a general fatigue assessment process, it is necessary to have more detailed guidelines by adding relevant theories and models which can capture the time-dependent structural degradation more precisely. To address this, a new framework is proposed in this paper. The proposed framework provides recommendations on various issues such as simulation of structural degradation, loading history, effect of localized corrosion, selection of a suitable fatigue strength curve and fatigue damage theories. Recently developed precise fatigue damage theory is also included in the proposed framework.

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