scholarly journals Novel risk stratification algorithm for estimating the risk of death in patients with relapsed multiple myeloma: external validation in a retrospective chart review

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. e034209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Hájek ◽  
Sebastian Gonzalez-McQuire ◽  
Zsolt Szabo ◽  
Michel Delforge ◽  
Lucy DeCosta ◽  
...  

Objectives and designA novel risk stratification algorithm estimating risk of death in patients with relapsed multiple myeloma starting second-line treatment was recently developed using multivariable Cox regression of data from a Czech registry. It uses 16 parameters routinely collected in medical practice to stratify patients into four distinct risk groups in terms of survival expectation. To provide insight into generalisability of the risk stratification algorithm, the study aimed to validate the risk stratification algorithm using real-world data from specifically designed retrospective chart audits from three European countries.Participants and settingPhysicians collected data from 998 patients (France, 386; Germany, 344; UK, 268) and applied the risk stratification algorithm.MethodsThe performance of the Cox regression model for predicting risk of death was assessed by Nagelkerke’s R2, goodness of fit and the C-index. The risk stratification algorithm’s ability to discriminate overall survival across four risk groups was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and HRs.ResultsConsistent with the Czech registry, the stratification performance of the risk stratification algorithm demonstrated clear differentiation in risk of death between the four groups. As risk groups increased, risk of death doubled. The C-index was 0.715 (95% CI 0.690 to 0.734).ConclusionsValidation of the novel risk stratification algorithm in an independent ‘real-world’ dataset demonstrated that it stratifies patients in four subgroups according to survival expectation.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Bongiovanni ◽  
Chiara Liverani ◽  
Flavia Foca ◽  
Valentina Fausti ◽  
Giandomenico Di Menna ◽  
...  

Background: Neuroendocrine neoplasia (NEN) are a rare group of tumors with different prognosis and response to therapy. Their heterogeneity is dependent on the site of origin, morphology and Ki67. Temozolomide (TEM) appears to be active in metastatic NENs (mNENs) but there is limited evidence about its efficacy in gastrointestinal NENs. We analyzed “real-world” data on the use of TEM alone or in association with capecitabine (CAPTEM) in patients with mNENs. Patients and Methods: One hundred consecutive patients with advanced NENs treated with TEM or CAPTEM between 2009 and 2019 were included. A pre-treatment tumor growth rate (TGR0) was calculated. Overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), tolerance, objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR) were analyzed. A propensity score analysis and inverse probability of treatment weights for Cox-regression models were used. Results: TEM-based therapy was administered to 95 patients (26.3% CAPTEM and 83.7% TEM) with a median age of 59 years (range 26-85) years. ECOG performance status was 0-2. Carcinoid syndrome was reported in 12 (12.6%) patients. Twenty (21.1%) patients with grade (G) 3 neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) and 9 (9.4%) with G3 neuroendocrine tumors (NET) were included in the analysis. Median PFS of the entire group was 10.4 months (95% confidence interval (CI):6.0-11.5). In multivariate analysis, a higher risk of progression was observed for NEC G3 patients (hazard ratio (HR) 2.70, 95%CI:1.25-5.84) and for a TGR ≥19.55 (HR:2.53, 95%CI:1.45-4.40). Median OS was 23.4 months (95%CI: 17.0-29.0) and was similar in both treatment groups (23.9 vs. 20.5 months for TEM and CAPTEM, respectively, p =0.585). In multivariate analysis, TGR ≥19.55 was associated with a higher risk of death (HR:2.18, 95%CI:1.16-4.11) than TGR<19.55, as was NEC G3 (HR: 2.42, 95%CI:1.04-5.59) with respect to NETs. No differences in terms of mPFS or mOS were seen in relation to the primary site of disease. In the 86 patients evaluable for response, ORR was 44.1% and the DCR was 70.9%. Mild adverse events (grade I-II) included anemia, neutropenia and headache. Rare cases of grade 3 neutropenia and thrombocytopenia were recorded. Conclusions: TEM-based regimens are associated with a high DCR and a relatively tolerable toxicity profile in NEN of pancreatic, intestinal and lung origin. Further investigation of these specific NETs is warranted in prospective clinical trials.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y.M Cha ◽  
M.D Metzl ◽  
R.C Canby ◽  
E.M Fruechte ◽  
M Duggal ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Chronic right ventricular pacing (RVP) has been associated with dyssynchrony, leading to increased mortality. However, there have been discrepancies in previous reports in the effect of RVP levels. Objective To sub-stratify mortality risk by age for different RVP level groups within a large real-world ICD cohort. Methods Optum® de-identified electronic health records were linked to the Medtronic Carelink data to identify dual chamber ICD recipients (2007–2017). RVP level was based on median daily pacing during the first 90 days post-implant and categorized either into groups with a cutoff of 40%, or with groups of 0–9%, 10–19%, 20–29%, 30–39%, 40–49%, and 50–100%. The endpoint was death more than 90 days post-implant. Kaplan-Meier survival curves, log-rank tests, and Cox regression were used to analyze the relationship between RVP and risk of death. Results Among 14,832 ICD patients (median age 67; 74.0% male), there were 2,602 deaths within 10 years after implant. In unadjusted comparisons, high RVP (&gt;40%) increased the risk of death relative to low RVP (≤40%) (p&lt;0.001). This effect remained significant in older cohort (≥67 years old at implant) (p&lt;0.001), but not in younger cohort (&lt;67 years old) (p=0.955) (Figure). After controlling for age, gender, pacing mode, MI, SCA, HF hospitalization, diabetes, and renal dysfunction, similar or increased risk was associated with higher pacing groups relative to the 0–9% pacing group in the older cohort, but not in the younger cohort. Conclusions Our data from a large contemporaneous real-world source suggests that older age or characteristics associated with age make patients more sensitive to chronic RVP effects. These results help reconcile differences observed in prior studies. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Medtronic, Inc.


Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4490-4490
Author(s):  
Sigrun Thorsteinsdottir ◽  
Ingigerdur S Sverrisdottir ◽  
Gauti Gislason ◽  
Ola Landgren ◽  
Ingemar Turesson ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Multiple myeloma (MM) causes lytic bone lesions, osteopenia, and fractures, which increase the morbidity of MM patients. Results from small previous studies have indicated that fractures in MM have a negative effect on survival. Aims The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of fractures on survival in MM patients diagnosed in Sweden in the years 1990-2013. Furthermore, to analyze the effect of bone fractures at MM diagnosis on subsequent survival. Methods Patients diagnosed with MM in 1990-2013 were identified from the Swedish Cancer Registry. Information on date of birth, diagnosis, and death were collected from the Registry of Total Population. Information on all fractures were retrieved from the Swedish Patient Registry. Cox regression model was used with fractures as time-dependent variables. The effect of fractures on survival was assessed for any fracture or a subtype of fracture (a specific bone fracture or ICD-coded pathologic fracture). Either first fracture or the first subtype of fracture was used in the analysis. The effect of a fracture at MM diagnosis (within 30 days before or 30 days after MM diagnosis) on survival was also estimated using a Cox regression model. All models were adjusted for age, sex, time of diagnosis, and previous fractures. Results A total of 14,008 patients were diagnosed with MM in the study period. A total of 4,141 (29.6%) patients developed a fracture including fractures that occurred within a year before MM diagnosis and thereafter. Hereof 2,893 (20.7%) patients developed a fracture after MM diagnosis. The risk of death was significantly increased for patients that developed a fracture after the time of MM diagnosis with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91-2.10) for all fractures combined. The risk of death was significantly increased for patients that developed all subtypes of fractures after MM diagnosis except ankle fractures. The risk of death was significantly increased for patients that developed pathologic fractures (HR=2.17; 95% CI 2.03-2.32), vertebral fractures (HR=1.73; 95% CI 1.61-1.87), hip fractures (HR=1.99; 95% CI 1.82-2.18), femoral fractures (HR=2.62; 95% CI 2.32-2.98), humerus fractures (HR=2.57; 95% CI 2.32-2.86), forearm fractures (HR=1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), and rib fractures (HR=1.52; 95% CI 1.31-1.77), but not for ankle fractures (HR 1.07; 95% CI 0.79-1.44). A total of 942 (6.7%) of all MM patients were diagnosed with a fracture within 30 days before or 30 days after MM diagnosis. The patients with a fracture at diagnosis were at a significantly increased risk of death compared to those without (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.21-1.41; Figure) Conclusions Our large population-based study, including over 14,000 patients diagnosed with MM in Sweden in the years 1990-2013, showed that MM patients that developed a fracture after the time of diagnosis were at twofold increased risk of dying compared to MM patients without a fracture. Furthermore, MM patients with a fracture at diagnosis had a 30% higher risk of dying compared to patients without a fracture. Our results indicate that fractures in MM reflect a more advanced disease at diagnosis and stress the importance of managing MM bone disease in all MM patients. Figure. Figure. Disclosures Landgren: Takeda: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Merck: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Karyopharm: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Pfizer: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Amgen: Consultancy, Research Funding.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e21625-e21625
Author(s):  
Danielle Crawley ◽  
Kerri Beckmann ◽  
Saranya Ravindra ◽  
Debra Hannah Josephs ◽  
James F. Spicer ◽  
...  

e21625 Background: CPIs including antibodies to programmed death-1 (PD-1) and its ligand anti PD-L1 are associated with superior overall survival (OS) in NSCLC. PDL1 is an imperfect predictive biomarker. We have examined real world data to identify additional factors associated with clinical benefit. Methods: 96 consecutive NSCLC patients (pts) were treated with CPIs at our institution. Multivariate cox proportional hazard regression models were used to examine the associations between OS and baseline characteristics including age, sex, histology, PDL1 status, performance status (PS), steroid use and brain metastases. Results: 93% (89/96) of pts received pembroluzimab, 6 (6%) nivolumab, and 1 (1%) atezoluzimab. All pts had metastatic disease (68% adenocarcinoma). 15% had PS 0, and 70% PS1. 11 of the 96 pts had brain metastases prior to CPI, 4 (37%) had whole brain radiotherapy, 2 (18%) targeted radiotherapy, 2 (18%) resection with radiotherapy and 3 (27%) had no definitive treatment for brain metastases. After multivariate analysis those with PS 1-2 had an increased risk of death (PS = 1 HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.11-6.72; PS = 2 3.61, 95% CI 1.28-10.15) compared with PS 0. Outcomes for pts receiving corticosteroids at the time of initiation of CPI were also inferior (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.10-4.74) compared to those who were not. Conversely those who had brain metastasis diagnosed prior to commencing CPI had superior OS (HR 0.29 95% CI: 0.11-0.76). No statistically significant association was seen with age, gender, histology, stage at diagnosis, smoking or mutational status. PDL < 50% compared to > 50% was associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.53 95% CI: 0.90-2.60) though it was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Here we show, using real world data, that PS and use at baseline of oral corticosteroids are associated with inferior OS with CPI treatment for NSCLC, in line with reports from large clinical trials. We show that baseline brain metastases are associated with improved outcomes. This may be explained by survivor bias, in that those who are successfully treated for brain disease, remain PS ≤2 and are able to commence CPI represent a highly selected group.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e16510-e16510
Author(s):  
Amit Kulkarni ◽  
Nathan Rubin ◽  
Tony Tholkes ◽  
Anna Prizment ◽  
Charles J. Ryan ◽  
...  

e16510 Background: Abiraterone use is associated with significant cardiovascular (CV) morbidity in clinical trials, but the magnitude of this morbidity in contemporary US prostate cancer (PC) population remains unknown. We examined a large medical claims database to answer this important question. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed Marketscan claims database (1/1/2013 to 9/30/2015) to identify adults with diagnosis of localized PC, recurrent localized PC, biochemically recurrent non-metastatic PC and metastatic PC who received treatment with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) alone or ADT with novel antiandrogen agents (abiraterone or enzalutamide). The primary outcome measure was composite severe CV outcome of acute myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or heart failure (HF). We used Cox regression model with time dependent covariates to estimate the CV risk of various therapies. Results: A total of 7030 patients of PC were identified- 1285 received ADT for localized PC, 424 received ADT for recurrent localized PC, 554 received ADT for biochemically recurrent non-metastatic PC, 256 received ADT alone for metastatic PC and 1366 received abiraterone or enzalutamide with ADT for metastatic PC. During the study period, 143 severe CV events occurred, resulting in an incidence rate of 0.74 per 100 patient-years. In multivariate analysis, abiraterone use was associated with a trend towards increased risk of severe CV compared to non-abiraterone users (HR = 1.58; 95% CI: 0.98-2.59, p= 0.06). No such increased risk was detected for ADT (HR = 1.35; 95% CI: 0.92-2.00, p= 0.12) or enzalutamide (HR = 0.84 95% CI: 0.34-2.11, p= 0.71). Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study to present real-world data on CV outcomes of PC patients receiving novel anti-androgens. Our findings support the trend towards increased severe CV risk seen in abiraterone trials. No such association was seen for enzalutamide. Additional analyses with a longer follow-up duration are planned.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1680
Author(s):  
Urban Berg ◽  
Annette W-Dahl ◽  
Anna Nilsdotter ◽  
Emma Nauclér ◽  
Martin Sundberg ◽  
...  

Purpose: We aimed to study the influence of fast-track care programs in total hip and total knee replacements (THR and TKR) at Swedish hospitals on the risk of revision and mortality within 2 years after the operation. Methods: Data were collected from the Swedish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registers (SHAR and SKAR), including 67,913 THR and 59,268 TKR operations from 2011 to 2015 on patients with osteoarthritis. Operations from 2011 to 2015 Revision and mortality in the fast-track group were compared with non-fast-track using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis with adjustments. Results: The hazard ratio (HR) for revision within 2 years after THR with fast-track was 1.19 (CI: 1.03–1.39), indicating increased risk, whereas no increased risk was found in TKR (HR 0.91; CI: 0.79–1.06). The risk of death within 2 years was estimated with a HR of 0.85 (CI: 0.74–0.97) for TKR and 0.96 (CI: 0.85–1.09) for THR in fast-track hospitals compared to non-fast-track. Conclusions: Fast-track programs at Swedish hospitals were associated with an increased risk of revision in THR but not in TKR, while we found the mortality to be lower (TKR) or similar (THR) as compared to non-fast track.


Gerontology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Lee Butcher ◽  
Jose Antonio Carnicero ◽  
Karine Pérès ◽  
Marco Colpo ◽  
David Gomez Cabrero ◽  
...  

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> The evidence that blood levels of the soluble receptor for advanced glycation end products (sRAGE) predict mortality in people with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is inconsistent. To clarify this matter, we investigated if frailty status influences this association. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> We analysed data of 1,016 individuals (median age, 75 years) from 3 population-based European cohorts, enrolled in the FRAILOMIC project. Participants were stratified by history of CVD and frailty status. Mortality was recorded during 8 years of follow-up. <b><i>Results:</i></b> In adjusted Cox regression models, baseline serum sRAGE was positively associated with an increased risk of mortality in participants with CVD (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.09–2.49, <i>p</i> = 0.019) but not in non-CVD. Within the CVD group, the risk of death was markedly enhanced in the frail subgroup (CVD-F, HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.18–3.29, <i>p</i> = 0.009), compared to the non-frail subgroup (CVD-NF, HR 1.50, 95% CI 0.71–3.15, <i>p</i> = 0.287). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the median survival time of CVD-F with high sRAGE (&#x3e;1,554 pg/mL) was 2.9 years shorter than that of CVD-F with low sRAGE, whereas no survival difference was seen for CVD-NF. Area under the ROC curve analysis demonstrated that for CVD-F, addition of sRAGE to the prediction model increased its prognostic value. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> Frailty status influences the relationship between sRAGE and mortality in older adults with CVD. sRAGE could be used as a prognostic marker of mortality for these individuals, particularly if they are also frail.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. e000672
Author(s):  
Ryan Pratt ◽  
Mete Erdogan ◽  
Robert Green ◽  
David Clark ◽  
Amanda Vinson ◽  
...  

BackgroundThe risk of death and complications after major trauma in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is higher than in the general population, but whether this association holds true among Canadian trauma patients is unknown.ObjectivesTo characterize patients with CKD/receiving dialysis within a regional major trauma cohort and compare their outcomes with patients without CKD.MethodsAll major traumas requiring hospitalization between 2006 and 2017 were identified from a provincial trauma registry in Nova Scotia, Canada. Trauma patients with stage ≥3 CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) or receiving dialysis were identified by cross-referencing two regional databases for nephrology clinics and dialysis treatments. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; secondary outcomes included hospital/intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) and ventilator-days. Cox regression was used to adjust for the effects of patient characteristics on in-hospital mortality.ResultsIn total, 6237 trauma patients were identified, of whom 4997 lived within the regional nephrology catchment area. CKD/dialysis trauma patients (n=101; 28 on dialysis) were older than patients without CKD (n=4896), with higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, and had increased risk of in-hospital mortality (31% vs 11%, p<0.001). No differences were observed in injury severity, ICU LOS, or ventilator-days. After adjustment for age, sex, and injury severity, the HR for in-hospital mortality was 1.90 (95% CI 1.33 to 2.70) for CKD/dialysis compared with patients without CKD.ConclusionIndependent of injury severity, patients without CKD/dialysis have significantly increased risk of in-hospital mortality after major trauma.


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