scholarly journals Individualised risk prediction model for new-onset, progression and regression of chronic kidney disease in a retrospective cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes under primary care in Hong Kong

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. e035308
Author(s):  
Lin Yang ◽  
Tsun Kit Chu ◽  
Jinxiao Lian ◽  
Cheuk Wai Lo ◽  
Shi Zhao ◽  
...  

ObjectivesThis study is aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for multistate transitions across different stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus under primary care.SettingWe retrieved the anonymised electronic health records of a population-based retrospective cohort in Hong Kong.ParticipantsA total of 26 197 patients were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe new-onset, progression and regression of CKD were defined by the transitions of four stages that were classified by combining glomerular filtration rate and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. We applied a multiscale multistate Poisson regression model to estimate the rates of the stage transitions by integrating the baseline demographic characteristics, routine laboratory test results and clinical data from electronic health records.ResultsDuring the mean follow-up time of 1.8 years, there were 2632 patients newly diagnosed with CKD, 1746 progressed to the next stage and 1971 regressed into an earlier stage. The models achieved the best performance in predicting the new-onset and progression with the predictors of sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, haemoglobin A1c, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides and drug prescriptions.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that individual risks of new-onset and progression of CKD can be predicted from the routine physical and laboratory test results. The individualised prediction curves developed from this study could potentially be applied to routine clinical practices, to facilitate clinical decision making, risk communications with patients and early interventions.

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manel Mata-Cases ◽  
Bogdan Vlacho ◽  
Jordi Real ◽  
Ramon Puig-Treserra ◽  
Magdalena Bundó ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo assess the trends in cardiovascular risk factor control and drug therapy from 2007 to 2018 in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).Materials and MethodsCross-sectional analysis using yearly clinical data and treatment obtained from the SIDIAP database. Patients aged ≥18 years with a diagnosis of T2DM seen in primary care in Catalonia, Spain. ResultsThe number of T2DM patients increased from 299,855 in 2007 to 394,266 in 2018. We also found an increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease (from 18.4 to 24.4%, from 4.5 to 7.3%, and from 20.2 to 31.3%, respectively). The achievement of glycemic targets (HbA1c<7%) scarcely changed (54.9% to 55.9%). Major improvements were seen in blood pressure (≤140/90 mmHg: from 55% to 71.8%), and in lipid control (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <100 mg/dl: 33.4% to 48.4%), especially in people with established cardiovascular disease (48.8 to 69.7%). Simultaneous achievement of all three targets improved from 12.5% to 20.1% in the overall population and from 24.5% to 32.2% in those with cardiovascular disease but plateaued after 2013. There was an increase in the percentage of patients treated with any antidiabetic drug (70.1% to 81.0%), especially metformin (47.7% to 67.7%), and DPP4i (0 to 22.6%). The use of SGLT-2 and GLP-1ra increased over the years, but remained very low in 2018 (5.5% and 2.1% of subjects, respectively). There were also relevant increases in the use of statins (38.0% to 49.2%), renin-angiotensin system (RAS) drugs (52.5% to 57.2%), and beta-blockers (14.3% to 22.7%).ConclusionsDuring the 2007-2018 period, relevant improvements in blood pressure and lipid control occurred, especially in people with cardiovascular disease. Despite the increase in the use of antidiabetic and cardiovascular drugs, the proportion of patients in which the three objectives were simultaneously achieved is still insufficient and plateaued after 2013. The use of antidiabetic drugs with demonstrated cardio renal benefits (SGLT-2 and GLP-1ra) increased over the years, but their use remained quite low.


2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Boon-How Chew ◽  
Husni Hussain ◽  
Ziti Akthar Supian

Abstract Background Good-quality evidence has shown that early glycaemic, blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol control in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) leads to better outcomes. In spite of that, diseases control have been inadequate globally, and therapeutic inertia could be one of the main cause. Evidence on therapeutic inertia has been lacking at primary care setting. This retrospective cohort study aimed to determine the proportions of therapeutic inertia when treatment targets of HbA1c, blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol were not achieved in adults with T2D at three public health clinics in Malaysia. Methods The index prescriptions were those that when the annual blood tests were reviewed. Prescriptions of medication were verified, compared to the preceding prescriptions and classified as 1) no change, 2) stepping up and 3) stepping down. The treatment targets were HbA1c < 7.0% (53 mmol/mol), blood pressure (BP) < 140/90 mmHg and LDL-cholesterol < 2.6 mmol/L. Therapeutic inertia was defined as no change in the medication use in the present of not reaching the treatment targets. Descriptive, univariable, multivariable logistic regression and sensitive analyses were conducted. Results A total of 552 cohorts were available for the assessment of therapeutic inertia (78.9% completion rate). The mean (SD) age and diabetes duration were 60.0 (9.9) years and 5.0 (6.0) years, respectively. High therapeutic inertia were observed in oral anti-diabetic (61–72%), anti-hypertensive (34–65%) and lipid-lowering therapies (56–77%), and lesser in insulin (34–52%). Insulin therapeutic inertia was more likely among those with shorter diabetes duration (adjusted OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.87, 0.98). Those who did not achieve treatment targets were less likely to experience therapeutic inertia: HbA1c ≥ 7.0%: adjusted OR 0.10 (0.04, 0.24); BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg: 0.28 (0.16, 0.50); LDL-cholesterol ≥ 2.6 mmol/L: 0.37 (0.22, 0.64). Conclusions Although therapeutic intensifications were more likely in the presence of non-achieved treatment targets but the proportions of therapeutic inertia were high. Possible causes of therapeutic inertia were less of the physician behaviours but might be more of patient-related non-adherence or non-availability of the oral medications. These observations require urgent identification and rectification to improve disease control, avoiding detrimental health implications and costly consequences. Trial registration Number NCT02730754, April 6, 2016.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. e001377
Author(s):  
Niko S Wasenius ◽  
Bo A Isomaa ◽  
Bjarne Östman ◽  
Johan Söderström ◽  
Björn Forsén ◽  
...  

IntroductionTo investigate the effect of an exercise prescription and a 1-year supervised exercise intervention, and the modifying effect of the family history of type 2 diabetes (FH), on long-term cardiometabolic health.Research design and methodsFor this prospective randomized trial, we recruited non-diabetic participants with poor fitness (n=1072, 30–70 years). Participants were randomly assigned with stratification for FH either in the exercise prescription group (PG, n=144) or the supervised exercise group (EG, n=146) group and compared with a matched control group from the same population study (CON, n=782). The PG and EG received exercise prescriptions. In addition, the EG attended supervised exercise sessions two times a week for 60 min for 12 months. Cardiometabolic risk factors were measured at baseline, 1 year, 5 years, and 6 years. The CON group received no intervention and was measured at baseline and 6 years.ResultsThe EG reduced their body weight, waist circumference, diastolic blood pressure, and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) but not physical fitness (p=0.074) or insulin or glucose regulation (p>0.1) compared with the PG at 1 year and 5 years (p≤0.011). The observed differences were attenuated at 6 years; however, participants in the both intervention groups significantly improved their blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and insulin sensitivity compared with the population controls (p≤0.003). FH modified LDL-C and waist circumference responses to exercise at 1 year and 5 years.ConclusionsLow-cost physical activity programs have long-term beneficial effects on cardiometabolic health regardless of the FH of diabetes. Given the feasibility and low cost of these programs, they should be advocated to promote cardiometabolic health.Trial registration numberClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02131701.


2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. e000787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rianneke de Ritter ◽  
Simone J S Sep ◽  
Carla J H van der Kallen ◽  
Miranda T Schram ◽  
Annemarie Koster ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo investigate whether adverse differences in levels of cardiovascular risk factors in women than men, already established when comparing individuals with and without diabetes, are also present before type 2 diabetes onset.Research design and methodsIn a population-based cohort study of individuals aged 40-75 years (n=3410; 49% women, 29% type 2 diabetes (oversampled by design)), we estimated associations with cardiometabolic and lifestyle risk factors of (1) pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes (reference category: normal glucose metabolism) and (2) among non-diabetic individuals, of continuous levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Age-adjusted sex differences were analyzed using linear and logistic regression models with sex interaction terms.ResultsIn pre-diabetes, adverse differences in cardiometabolic risk factors were greater in women than men for systolic blood pressure (difference, 3.02 mm Hg; 95% CI:−0.26 to 6.30), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (difference, −0.10 mmol/L; 95% CI: −0.18 to −0.02), total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio (difference, 0.22; 95% CI: −0.01 to 0.44), triglycerides (ratio: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.22), and inflammation markers Z-score (ratio: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.41). In type 2 diabetes, these sex differences were similar in direction, and of greater magnitude. Additionally, HbA1c among non-diabetic individuals was more strongly associated with several cardiometabolic risk factors in women than men: per one per cent point increase, systolic blood pressure (difference, 3.58 mm Hg; 95% CI: −0.03 to 7.19), diastolic blood pressure (difference, 2.10 mm Hg; 95% CI: −0.02 to 4.23), HDL cholesterol (difference, −0.09 mmol/L; 95% CI: −0.19 to 0.00), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (difference, 0.26 mmol/L; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.47). With regard to lifestyle risk factors, no consistent pattern was observed.ConclusionOur results are consistent with the concept that the more adverse changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in women (than men) arise as a continuous process before the onset of type 2 diabetes.


Diabetes Care ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 1134-1141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Yuk Fai Wan ◽  
Esther Yee Tak Yu ◽  
Weng Yee Chin ◽  
Colman Siu Cheung Fung ◽  
Daniel Yee Tak Fong ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e002069
Author(s):  
Laura H Gunn ◽  
Eszter P Vamos ◽  
Azeem Majeed ◽  
Pasha Normahani ◽  
Usman Jaffer ◽  
...  

IntroductionEngland has invested considerably in diabetes care through such programs as the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) and National Diabetes Audit (NDA). Associations between program indicators and clinical endpoints, such as amputation, remain unclear. We examined associations between primary care indicators and incident lower limb amputation.Research design and methodsThis population-based retrospective cohort study, spanning 2010–2017, was comprised of adults in England with type 2 diabetes and no history of lower limb amputation. Exposures at baseline (2010–2011) were attainment of QOF glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), blood pressure and total cholesterol indicators, and number of NDA processes completed. Propensity score matching was performed and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for disease-related, comorbidity, lifestyle, and sociodemographic factors, were fitted using matched samples for each exposure.Results83 688 individuals from 330 English primary care practices were included. Mean follow-up was 3.9 (SD 2.0) years, and 521 (0.6%) minor or major amputations were observed (1.62 per 1000 person-years). HbA1c and cholesterol indicator attainment were associated with considerably lower risks of minor or major amputation (adjusted HRs; 95% CIs) 0.61 (0.49 to 0.74; p<0.0001) and 0.67 (0.53 to 0.86; p=0.0017), respectively). No evidence of association between blood pressure indicator attainment and amputation was observed (adjusted HR 0.88 (0.73 to 1.06; p=0.1891)). Substantially lower amputation rates were observed among those completing a greater number of NDA care processes (adjusted HRs 0.45 (0.24 to 0.83; p=0.0106), 0.67 (0.47 to 0.97; p=0.0319), and 0.38 (0.20 to 0.70; p=0.0022) for comparisons of 4–6 vs 0–3, 7–9 vs 0–3, and 7–9 vs 4–6 processes, respectively). Results for major-only amputations were similar for HbA1c and blood pressure, though cholesterol indicator attainment was non-significant.ConclusionsComprehensive primary care-based secondary prevention may offer considerable protection against diabetes-related amputation. This has important implications for diabetes management and medical decision-making for patients, as well as type 2 diabetes quality improvement programs.


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