scholarly journals Is gastric cancer becoming a rare disease? A global assessment of predicted incidence trends to 2035

Gut ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (5) ◽  
pp. 823-829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melina Arnold ◽  
Jin Young Park ◽  
M Constanza Camargo ◽  
Nuno Lunet ◽  
David Forman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Rare Disease ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Low Incidence

ObjectivesThe incidence of gastric cancer continues to decrease globally, approaching levels that in some populations could define it as a rare disease. To explore this on a wider scale, we predict its future burden in 34 countries with long-standing population-based data.MethodsData on gastric cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex and age were extracted for 92 cancer registries in 34 countries included in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus. Numbers of new cases and age-standardised incidence rates (ASR per 100 000) were predicted up to 2035 by fitting and extrapolating age–period–cohort models.ResultsOverall gastric cancer incidence rates are predicted to continue falling in the future in the majority of countries, including high-incidence countries such as Japan (ASR 36 in 2010 vs ASR 30 in 2035) but also low-incidence countries such as Australia (ASR 5.1 in 2010 vs ASR 4.6 in 2035). A total of 16 countries are predicted to fall below the rare disease threshold (defined as 6 per 100 000 person-years) by 2035, while the number of newly diagnosed cases remains high and is predicted to continue growing. In contrast, incidence increases were seen in younger age groups (below age 50 years) in both low-incidence and high-incidence populations.ConclusionsWhile gastric cancer is predicted to become a rare disease in a growing number of countries, incidence levels remain high in some regions, and increasing risks have been observed in younger generations. The predicted growing number of new cases highlights that gastric cancer remains a major challenge to public health on a global scale.

scholarly journals Changing trends in liver cancer incidence by race/ethnicity and sex in the US: 1992–2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 1377-1388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell Salvatore ◽  
Jihyoun Jeon ◽  
Rafael Meza
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis C ◽  
Liver Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Hepatitis C Infection ◽  
Hispanic Males ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Health And Nutrition ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Race Ethnicity

Abstract Purpose Liver cancer incidence continues to increase while incidence of most other cancers is decreasing. We analyze recent and long-term trends of US liver cancer incidence by race/ethnicity and sex to best understand where to focus preventive efforts. Methods Liver cancer incidence rates from 1992 to 2016 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. Delay-adjusted age-standardized incidence trends by race/ethnicity and sex were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Age-specific incidence was analyzed using age-period-cohort models. Hepatitis C seroprevalence by cohort was calculated using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Results Liver cancer incidence has peaked in males and Asian or Pacific Islanders. Hispanic males, a high-incidence population, are experiencing a decrease in incidence, although not yet statistically significant. In contrast, incidence continues to increase in females, although at lower rates than in the 1990s, and American Indian/Alaska Natives (AI/ANs). Liver cancer incidence continues to be higher in males. Non-Hispanic Whites have the lowest incidence among racial/ethnic groups. Trends largely reflect differences in incidence by birth-cohort, which increased considerably, particularly in males, for those born around the 1950s, and continues to increase in females and AI/ANs. The patterns in males are likely driven by cohort variations in Hepatitis C infection. Conclusions Liver cancer incidence appears to have peaked among males. However, important differences in liver cancer trends by race/ethnicity and sex remain, highlighting the need for monitoring trends across different groups. Preventive interventions should focus on existing liver cancer disparities, targeting AI/ANs, females, and high-incidence groups.

scholarly journals Brain cancer incidence rates and the presence of nuclear reactors in US states: a hypothesis-generating study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R. Williamson ◽  
Marilyn G. Klug ◽  
Gary G. Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Ionizing Radiation ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Brain Cancer ◽  
Nuclear Reactors ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Nuclear Research ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Research Reactors ◽  
Cancer Incidence Rates

Abstract Background The etiology of brain cancer is poorly understood. The only confirmed environmental risk factor is exposure to ionizing radiation. Because nuclear reactors emit ionizing radiation, we examined brain cancer incidence rates in the USA in relation to the presence of nuclear reactors per state. Methods Data on brain cancer incidence rates per state for Whites by sex for three age groups (all ages, 50 and older, and under 50) were obtained from cancer registries. The location, number, and type of nuclear reactor, i.e., power or research reactor, was obtained from public sources. We examined the association between these variables using multivariate linear regression and ANOVA. Results Brain cancer incidence rates were not associated with the number of nuclear power reactors. Conversely, incidence rates per state increased with the number of nuclear research reactors. This was significant for both sexes combined and for males in the ‘all ages’ category (β = 0.08, p = 0.0319 and β = 0.12, p = 0.0277, respectively), and for both sexes combined in the’50 and older’ category (β = 0.18, p = 0.0163). Brain cancer incidence rates for counties with research reactors were significantly higher than the corresponding rates for their states overall (p = 0.0140). These findings were not explicable by known confounders. Conclusions Brain cancer incidence rates are positively associated with the number of nuclear research reactors per state. These findings merit further exploration and suggest new opportunities for research in brain cancer epidemiology.

Trends in colorectal cancer incidence in India.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e16084-e16084
Author(s):  
Vinay Mathew Thomas ◽  
Basil Baby ◽  
Kevin Wang ◽  
Feitong Lei ◽  
Quan Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Incidence

e16084 Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) accounts for 10% of global cancer deaths yearly. It is postulated that the incidence rates are rising in developing countries like India. We present a comprehensive overview of colorectal cancer incidence in India from various regions from 2004 to 2014. Methods: We obtained data on CRC incidence from the Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCR) of the National Cancer Registry Program. We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (to WHO World Standard Population 2000) for five-year age groups for period of diagnosis (2004-05, 2006-08, 2009-11, and 2012-14). Results: From 2004 to 2014, CRC incidence rates in India increased by 20%. During 2004-2005, the incidence rate of CRC was 5.8 per 100,000 persons. It increased to 6.9 during 2012-2014. Conclusions: CRC rates are rising in India. Even though the absolute rates are low in the Indian population, the rising rates pose a problem in rising cancer morbidity in India. The rising rates can be attributed to changing lifestyles that include consumption of calorie-rich and low fibre diet, excessive use of red meat and processed foods, and physical inactivity. There is a need for cost-effective strategies to enable early diagnosis for colorectal cancer in India. Affordable and equitable treatment will help increase the 5-year survival rates of colorectal cancers. [Table: see text]

scholarly journals 40 Years of Change in Age- and Stage-Specific Cancer Incidence Rates in US Women and Men

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca D Kehm ◽  
Wan Yang ◽  
Parisa Tehranifar ◽  
Mary Beth Terry
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Permutation Testing ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Specific Cancer ◽  
Old Men ◽  
Cancer Incidence Rates

Abstract Background Studies have documented a temporal increase in incidence for several cancers in US young adults aged 25 to 39-years, including noncardia gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, and distant-stage breast cancer. To further characterize trends in young adults, we assessed age-specific and stage-specific incidence trends from 1975 to 2015, overall (all malignant cancers combined), and for 18 and 16 cancer sites in women and men, respectively. Methods We used US population-based data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program to obtain overall and site-specific cancer incidence rates by sex and age group. We individually analyzed cancer sites with an incidence rate of at least 5 per 100 000 in 2015, accounting for greater than 90% of all cancer diagnoses. We estimated annual percent changes (APCs) using segment log-linear regression performed with joinpoint software; multiple permutation testing was used to identify inflection points. We forecasted overall cancer incidence through 2030 using age-period-cohort regression models. Results Based on trends occurring after the most recent joinpoint inflection point, overall cancer incidence increased by 1.15% (95% CI = 1.01% to 1.28%) per year in 25- to 39-year-old women and by 0.46% (95% CI = 0.17% to 0.75%) per year in 25- to 39-year-old men; APCs were of much lower magnitude in the older age groups (eg, 70- to 84-year-old women APC = −0.31%, 95% CI = −0.42% to −0.20%). We forecasted that overall cancer incidence will increase by an additional 11% by 2030 in 25- to 39-year-old women, and by an additional 12% in 25- to 39-year-old men. Ten of the 18 cancers assessed in 25- to 39-year-old women and 7 of the 16 cancers in 25- to 39-year-old men have been statistically significantly increasing over time. We found that the increase in incidence for young adults is stage specific for some cancers (eg, only nonlocalized breast cancer has increased in 25- to 39-year-old women). Conclusion Cancer incidence is increasing in young adults, particularly in young women.

scholarly journals Incidence and Trends of the Leading Cancers with Elevated Incidence Among American Indian and Alaska Native Populations, 2012–2016

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie C Melkonian ◽  
Hannah K Weir ◽  
Melissa A Jim ◽  
Bailey Preikschat ◽  
Donald Haverkamp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
American Indian ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Alaska Native ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Breast Cancers ◽  
Age Adjusted Rates ◽  
Incident Cases ◽  
Hispanic White

Abstract Cancer incidence varies among American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations, as well as between AI/AN and White populations. This study examined trends for cancers with elevated incidence among AI/AN compared with non-Hispanic White populations and estimated potentially avoidable incident cases among AI/AN populations. Incident cases diagnosed during 2012–2016 were identified from population-based cancer registries and linked with the Indian Health Service patient registration databases to improve racial classification of AI/AN populations. Age-adjusted rates (per 100,000) and trends were calculated for cancers with elevated incidence among AI/AN compared with non-Hispanic White populations (rate ratio >1.0), by region. Trends were estimated using joinpoint regression analyses. Expected cancers were estimated by applying age-specific cancer incidence rates among non-Hispanic White populations to population estimates for AI/AN populations. Excess cancer cases among AI/AN populations were defined as observed minus expected cases. Liver, stomach, kidney, lung, colorectal and female breast cancers had higher incidence rate among AI/AN populations across most regions. Between 2012 and 2016, nearly 5,200 excess cancers were diagnosed among AI/AN populations, with the largest number of excess cancers (1,925) occurring in the Southern Plains region. Culturally informed efforts may reduce cancer disparities associated with these and other cancers among AI/AN populations.

scholarly journals Colorectal Cancer in Young and Older Adults in Uruguay: Changes in Recent Incidence and Mortality Trends

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 8232
Author(s):  
Carina Musetti ◽  
Mariela Garau ◽  
Rafael Alonso ◽  
Marion Piñeros ◽  
Isabelle Soerjomataram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Older Adults ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Screening Programs ◽  
Lifestyle Risk Factors ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Colorectal Cancer Incidence

Uruguay has the highest colorectal cancer incidence rates in Latin America. Previous studies reported a stable incidence and a slight increase in mortality among males. We aimed to assess colorectal cancer incidence (2002–2017) and mortality trends (1990–2017) by age groups and sex, using data from the National Cancer Registry. Annual percent changes (APCs) were estimated using joinpoint regression models. We included 27,561 colorectal cancer cases and 25,403 deaths. We found an increasing incidence among both males and females aged 40–49, with annual increases of 3.1% (95%CI: 1.21–5.03) and 2.1% (95%CI: 0.49–3.66), respectively, and an increasein the rate in older males (70+) of 0.60% (95%CI: 0.02–1.20) per year between 2002 and 2017. Mortality remained stable among those younger than 50, whereas it decreased for older females aged 50–69 and 70+ (APC: −0.61% (−1.07–0.14) and −0.68% (−1.02–0.34), respectively), and increased for the oldest males (70+; APC: 0.74 (0.47–1.01)). In conclusion, we found rising colorectal cancer incidence accompanied by stable mortality in young adults. Sex disparities were also found among the older adults, with a more favorable pattern for females. Exposures to dietary and lifestyle risk factors, and inequalities in access to and awareness of screening programs, are probably among the main underlying causes and deserve further investigation.

scholarly journals Incidence Of Diarrheal Infections In Ukraine: Epidemiological Peculiarities

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Malysh ◽  
Oksana Chemych ◽  
Roman Rodyna ◽  
Inna Chorna ◽  
Svitlana Doan
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Food Item ◽  
Analytical Study ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Statistical Research ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Incidence

Abstract Background : Diarrheal infections remain relevant for many countries of the world. The processes of globalization, fundamental changes in nutrition and water consumption contributed to the fact that the significance of individual infection sources, etiological structure of diarrheal infections changed. Purpose of the study: on the background of the analytical study of the incidence of diarrheal infections in Ukraine under the current conditions, to determine the factors influencing epidemic situation. Methods: The reports of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, Main Administrations of Statistics in Kharkiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia oblasts for 2011-2018 are used in the paper. Epidemiological and statistical research methods are applied. Results: The epidemic situation with diarrheal infections in Ukraine is characterized by a low incidence of typhoid fever (from 0.012 to 0.14 per 100 thousand people), shigellosis (from 1.97-6.13 per 100 thousand people), stable incidence rates without the downward trend, salmonellosis (from 17.35 till 24.1 per 100 thousand people), high incidence of diahrreal infections of specified etiology (from 115.5 to141.9 per 100 thousand people) and diahrreal infections of unspecified etiology (from 69.76 to 107.02 per 100 thousand people). The most complicated epidemic situation is observed in economically most developed regions of the country. Most diarrheal infectionsoutbreaks are connected with catering establishments 36.5 % and with children educational establishments 26.1 %. In the region with the highest shigellosis and salmonellosis incidence direct strong correlation relationships are established between the incidence and population, density, natural population movement. The oblasts with the highest diahrreal infections of specified etiology, rotaviral enteritis, diahrreal infections of unspecified etiology incidence are at least provided with water resources and have problems with provision of high-quality drinking water. There is a need to improve the system of epidemiological surveillance over diarrheal infections by extension of the indicators of microbiological study of drinking water quality in the regions of Ukraine, where high diahrreal infections of specified etiology, rotaviral enteritis, diahrreal infections of unspecified etiology incidence is registered; by increasing frequency of food item inspections in the oblasts, where mediana shigellosis and salmonellosis incidence exceeds the average one in Ukraine. Keywords: diarrheal infections, shigellosis, salmonellosis, rotaviral enteritis.

scholarly journals Ambient PM2.5 and Annual Lung Cancer Incidence: A Nationwide Study in 295 Chinese Counties

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huagui Guo ◽  
Weifeng Li ◽  
Jiansheng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Lung Cancer Incidence ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Males And Females

Most studies have examined PM2.5 effects on lung cancer mortalities, while few nationwide studies have been conducted in developing countries to estimate the effects of PM2.5 on lung cancer incidences. To fill this gap, this work aims to examine the effects of PM2.5 exposure on annual incidence rates of lung cancer for males and females in China. We performed a nationwide analysis in 295 counties (districts) from 2006 to 2014. Two regression models were employed to analyse data controlling for time, location and socioeconomic characteristics. We also examined whether the estimates of PM2.5 effects are sensitive to the adjustment of health and behaviour covariates, and the issue of the changing cancer registries each year. We further investigated the modification effects of region, temperature and precipitation. Generally, we found significantly positive associations between PM2.5 and incidence rates of lung cancer for males and females. If concurrent PM2.5 changes by 10 μg/m3, then the incidence rate relative to its baseline significantly changes by 4.20% (95% CI: 2.73%, 5.88%) and 2.48% (95% CI: 1.24%, 4.14%) for males and females, respectively. The effects of exposure to PM2.5 were still significant when further controlling for health and behaviour factors or using 5 year consecutive data from 91 counties. We found the evidence of long-term lag effects of PM2.5. We also found that temperature appeared to positively modify the effects of PM2.5 on the incidence rates of lung cancer for males. In conclusion, there were significantly adverse effects of PM2.5 on the incidence rates of lung cancer for both males and females in China. The estimated effect sizes might be considerably lower than those reported in developed countries. There were long-term lag effects of PM2.5 on lung cancer incidence in China.

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