scholarly journals Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge?

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214373
Author(s):  
Gerry McCartney ◽  
Alastair Leyland ◽  
David Walsh ◽  
Dundas Ruth
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Socioeconomic Inequality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Drug Poisoning ◽  
Infectious Disease Model ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Uk

BackgroundThe mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public.MethodsWe compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations.ResultsMortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of −5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to −0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are −0.25, −0.20 and −3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK.ConclusionFully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to ‘build back better’.

scholarly journals Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerry McCartney ◽  
Alastair H. Leyland ◽  
David Walsh ◽  
Ruth Dundas
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Socioeconomic Inequality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Disease Model ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Drug Poisoning ◽  
Infectious Disease Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially-determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public.MethodsWe compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations.ResultsMortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of −5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to −0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are −0.25, −0.20 and −3.51 years respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths, and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK.ConclusionFully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to ‘build back better’.Summary boxWhat is already known on this subject?COVID-19 has been modelled to create a substantial excess mortality in the UK, depending on the degree to which this is mitigated by social distancing measures. Best estimates of 510,000 and 20,000 crude deaths are predicted in unmitigated and fully mitigated scenarios respectively.What does this study add?We scale the mortality impact of the modelled COVID-19 on age-standardised mortality and life expectancy against suicide, drug poisonings and inequalities. The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy is substantial (−5.96 years) if unmitigated, but over a decade the life expectancy impact of inequalities is around six times greater than even an unmitigated pandemic.

An Expert Ranked List of Pro-nature Conservation Behaviours for Public Use

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lea Barbett ◽  
Edward Stupple ◽  
Michael Sweet ◽  
Miles Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Nature Conservation ◽  
General Population ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Ecological Impact ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Short Paper ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Ranked List

The planet is facing an anthropogenic mass extinction of wildlife, which will have a grave impact on the environment and humans. Widespread human action is needed to minimize the negative impact of humans on biodiversity and support the restoration of wildlife. In order to find effective ways to promote pro-nature conservation behaviours to the general population, there is a need to provide a list of behaviours which will have worthwhile ecological impact and are worth encouraging. In a novel collaboration between psychologists and ecologists, 70 experts from practical and academic conservation backgrounds were asked to review and rate 48 conservation related behaviours. According to their judgement, this short paper presents a ranked list of pro-nature conservation behaviours for the public in the UK and similar landscapes. This includes behaviours people can engage in in their homes, their gardens, on their land, and in their roles as citizens.

scholarly journals Bioinformatic Modelling of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic With a Focus on Country-Specific Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakub Liu ◽  
Tomasz Suchocki ◽  
Joanna Szyda
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Public Health Care ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
The Public ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Mixture Of Normal Distributions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Two Peaks ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract One of the seminal events since 2019 has been the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Countries have adopted various policies to deal with it, but they also differ in their socio-geographical characteristics and in the public health care facilities. The aim of our study was to investigate differences between epidemiological parameters across countries. The analysed data represents SARS-CoV-2 repository provided by the Johns Hopkins University. Separately for each country we estimated recovery and mortality rates using the SIRD model applied to the first 30, 60, 150 and 300 days of the pandemic. Moreover, a mixture of normal distributions was fitted to the number of confirmed cases and deaths during the first 300 days. The estimates of peaks’ means and variances were used to identify countries with outlying parameters. For the period of 300 days Belgium, Cyprus, France, the Netherlands, Serbia and the UK were classified as outliers by all three outlier detection methods. Yemen was classified as an outlier for each of the four considered timeframes, due to high mortality rates. During the first 300 days of the pandemic the majority of countries underwent three peaks in the number of confirmed cases, except Australia and Kazakhstan with two peaks.

The whys and wherefores of Brexit

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Ellison
Keyword(s):  
Public Services ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Political ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Core Issues

This introductory chapter examines the ‘whys and wherefores of Brexit’, considering not just the political roots of the referendum result but also its complex social and economic roots. The analysis suggests that although voters were largely influenced by a narrow range of core issues — notably the impact of rising net migration, anxieties about sovereignty and fears about the trajectory of the UK economy — these concerns may in turn have been provoked by two factors. First, labour markets became increasingly ‘flexible’ and less secure as a result of globalisation, and, second, this insecurity was compounded by the significant tilt towards ‘austerity’ in the period after 2010. This latter factor, in particular, had an immediate negative impact on the living standards of the most deprived groups in the UK and on the public services upon which they depend.

Excess winter mortality and stalling international improvements in life expectancy and mortality rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Rodney P Jones
Keyword(s):  
Health Service ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Confounding Factor ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Winter Mortality ◽  
Potential Confounding Factor ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Service Perspective ◽  
Health Service Perspective

In the UK, government austerity has been suggested as a major reason for the stalling of life expectancy improvements and age-standardised mortality rates. However, these trends have also been observed in many other countries. Influenza has been suggested as a potential confounding factor, as this condition contributes significantly to excess winter mortality (EWM) rates each year. This study uses calculated EWM rates in 64 countries with more than 12 000 deaths per annum to show that the decade before the financial crash was characterised by lower than average rates of EWM. The observed international stalling in life expectancy may therefore have been happening as early as the year 2000 but may have been partly masked by a decade of lower than usual winter deaths. From a health service perspective, EWM is also a source of winter bed pressures because of the associated medical admissions. The coincidental decade of low EWM rates may have also created a false picture of low winter demand, to which managers will have responded by trimming resources. This will, in part, have contributed to current winter pressures as EWM rates have returned to more ‘normal’ levels.

scholarly journals Investigating the public response to local government decisions to reduce or remove public library services

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisy McCahill ◽  
Briony Birdi ◽  
Roger B. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Public Library ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
New Findings ◽  
The Uk

This paper presents new findings regarding the public response to public spending cuts as part of the UK Government fiscal consolidation programme, specifically to the perceived effects of reduced library opening hours on the public library user in a city in the North of England. An inductive approach was taken to the mixed methods study, using a self-completion, cross-sectional survey distributed to adults visiting one of three libraries in the city during a six-day period. Qualitative and quantitative data analyses indicate a shared level of dissatisfaction with the service reductions across the respondents, and a shared perception of having been adversely affected. Statistical analyses revealed a strong level of agreement that the changes had a significantly negative impact on different aspects of respondents’ lives. The research evidences the direct effects of service reductions on library users, as well as the wider social and economic implications.

scholarly journals Bioinformatic Modelling of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic with a Focus on Country-Specific Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakub Liu ◽  
Tomasz Suchocki ◽  
Joanna Szyda
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Public Health Care ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
The Public ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Mixture Of Normal Distributions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Two Peaks

Abstract Background: One of the seminal events since 2019 has been the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Countries have adopted various policies to deal with it, but they also differ in their socio-geographical characteristics and the public health care facilities. Our study aimed to investigate differences between epidemiological parameters across countries.Method: The analysed data represents SARS-CoV-2 repository provided by the Johns Hopkins University. Separately for each country, we estimated recovery and mortality rates using the SIRD model applied to the first 30, 60, 150, and 300 days of the pandemic. Moreover, a mixture of normal distributions was fitted to the number of confirmed cases and deaths during the first 300 days. The estimates of peaks’ means and variances were used to identify countries with outlying parameters.Results: For 300 days Belgium, Cyprus, France, the Netherlands, Serbia, and the UK were classified as outliers by all three outlier detection methods. Yemen was classified as an outlier for each of the four considered timeframes, due to high mortality rates. During the first 300 days of the pandemic, the majority of countries underwent three peaks in the number of confirmed cases, except Australia and Kazakhstan with two peaks.Conclusions: Considering recovery and mortality rates we observed heterogeneity between countries. Liechtenstein was the “positive” outlier with low mortality rates and high recovery rates, at the opposite, Yemen represented a “negative” outlier with high mortality for all four considered periods and low recovery for 30 and 60 days.

scholarly journals Analisis Tingkat Kesejahteraan Masyarakat di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat Menggunakan Model Regresi Multivariat

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Rahmat Syam ◽  
S. Sukarna ◽  
N. Nurmah
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
Multivariate Regression ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Public Welfare ◽  
Poverty Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Relationship

Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui model hubungan antara laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, tingkat Produk Domestik Regional Bruto per kapita, dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia terhadap variabel-variabel penunjang berdasarkan analisis regresi multivariat dalam menganalisis tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat dengan pemilihan model terbaik menggunakan metode KICC. Variabel-variabel penunjang tersebut adalah angka harapan hidup, tingkat pengangguran terbuka, pengeluaran perkapita, tingkat kemiskinan, dan pendapatan asli daerah. Data tersebut dipublikasikan oleh Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat tahun 2018. Pada penelitian ini diperoleh bahwa terdapat tiga variabel yang berpengaruh positif terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat yaitu angka harapan hidup, pengeluaran perkapita, dan pendapatan asli daerah. Sedangkan dua variabel lainnya berpengaruh negatif. Adapun hubungan antara variabel-variabel prediktor terhadap variabel respon secara simultan adalah sebesar , hal ini berarti bahwa model dapat menjelaskan informasi data sebesar 99,99%.Kata kunci: Kesejahteraan, Analisis Regresi multivariat , KICCAbstract. This study aims to determine the model of the relationship between the rate of economic growth, the level of Gross Domestic Product Regional each capita, and the Human Development Index for supporting variables base on multivariate regression analysis to analyze the level of public welfare in West Nusa Tenggara Province by selecting the best model using the KICC method. The supporting variables were life expectancy, unemployment rate, expenditure each capita, poverty level, and local income. The data was published by the Central Bureau of Statistics of West Nusa Tenggara Province on 2018. The result shows that there are three variables which have shown a positive impact on the public welfare in West Nusa Tenggara Province, namely life expectancy, expenditure each capita, and local income. However, the others have shown a negative impact. The relation between predictors and response simultaneously is  = 0.999990324, it means that the data is explainable 99.99% by the model.Keywords: Welfare, Analysis of e Regression, KICC.

Libor benchmark: practice, crime and reforms

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 1140-1153
Author(s):  
Peter Yeoh
Keyword(s):  
Public Perception ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
White Collar Crime ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Regulatory Oversight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Uk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to trace how and why the market-designed Libor benchmark turned bad, thereby necessitating a regulatory response. Design/methodology/approach The study relies on primary and secondary data in the public domain and complemented by a single-case study. Findings The study demonstrates how and why Libor benchmark rigging led to reforms in the UK and elsewhere. Research limitations/implications The study relying mainly on the secondary data analysis needs to be enhanced by further empirical-based studies. Practical implications Insights generated by the study suggest why it might not be worthwhile for market participants to game the system. Social implications Libor benchmark affects the financial system widely with varying significance to the wider public. With better regulatory oversight, its negative impact is expected to be mitigated considerably. Originality/value The seriousness with which the enforcement agency and judiciary now treat financial crime weakens the earlier public perception that white-collar crime is enforced differently.

Thin Economics, Thick Moralising

2011 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-43
Author(s):  
Roland Boer
Keyword(s):  
Moral Economy ◽  
Single Parents ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
The Uk

Locality, family, moral economy, virtuous elites, common popular customs – these are the buzzwords of what has come to be known as red toryism, which seeks to breath life into the conservative project in the UK. It valorises the local over the global, family over its discontents (gays, single parents, promiscuity), virtue over cynicism, common custom over bland commercial labels; in short, a return to the progressive, communal values of conservatism. The name most usually associated with red toryism – also known as communitarian civic conservatism – is Phillip Blond. Our brief in this paper is not a treatment of the whole red tory doctrine, but a critical examination of its economic policies and how they relate to theology, via morality.

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