Climate change risks to push large parts of global food production and population centres to unprecedented conditions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Matias Heino ◽  
Maija Taka ◽  
Olli Varis ◽  
Daniel Viviroli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Global Food

<p>The majority of global food production, as we know it, is based on agricultural practices developed within stable Holocene climate conditions. Climate change is altering the key conditions for human societies, such as precipitation, temperature and aridity. Their combined impact on altering the conditions in areas where people live and grow food has not yet, however, been systematically quantified on a global scale. Here, we estimate the impacts of two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5) on major population centres and food crop production areas at 5 arc-min scale (~10 km at equator) using Holdridge Life Zones (HLZs), a concept that incorporates all the aforementioned climatic characteristics. We found that if rapid growth of GHG emissions is not halted (RCP 8.5), in year 2070, one fifth of the major food production areas and one fourth of the global population centres would experience climate conditions beyond the ones where food is currently produced, and people are living. Our results thus reinforce the importance of following the RCP 2.6 path, as then only a small fraction of food production (5%) and population centres (6%) would face such unprecedented conditions. Several areas experiencing these unprecedented conditions also have low resilience, such as those within Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Chad, and Guinea-Bissau. In these countries over 75% of food production and population would experience unprecedented climatic conditions under RCP 8.5. These and many other hotspot areas require the most urgent attention to secure sustainable development and equity.</p>

One-third of global food production at risk for unprecedented climate conditions due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matti Kummu ◽  
Matias Heino ◽  
Maija Taka ◽  
Olli Varis ◽  
Daniel Viviroli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Planetary Boundaries ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Food

<p>The majority of food production is based on agricultural practices developed for the stable Holocene climatic conditions, which now are under risk for rapid change due to climate change. Although various studies have assessed the potential changes in climatic conditions and their projected impacts on yields globally, there is no clear understanding on the climatic niche of the current food production. Nor, which areas are under risk of falling outside this niche.</p><p>In this study we aim first at defining the novel concept Safe Climatic Space (SCS) by using a combination of three key climatic parameters. SCS is defined here as the climate conditions to which current food production systems (here crop production and livestock production separately) are accustomed to, an analogue to Safe Operating Space (SOS) concepts such as Planetary Boundaries and human climate niche. We use a combination of selected key climatic factors to define the SCS through the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) concept. It allows us to first define the SCS based on three climatic factors (annual precipitation, biotemperature and aridity) and to identify which food production areas would stay within it under changed future climate conditions. </p><p>We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of GHG emissions (SSP5-8.5) could force 31% (25-37% with 5th-95th percentile confidence interval) of global food crop production and 34% (26-43%) of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081-2100. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction: 8% (4-10%) for crop production and 4% (2-8%) for livestock production. The most vulnerable areas are the ones at risk of leaving SCS with low resilience to cope with the change, particularly South and Southeast Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian Zone. </p><p>Our findings reinforce the existing research in suggesting that climate change forces humanity into a new era of reduced validity of past experiences and dramatically increased uncertainties. Future solutions should be concentrated on actions that would both mitigate climate change as well as increase resilience in food systems and societies, increase the food production sustainability that respects key planetary boundaries, adapt to climate change by, for example, crop migration and foster local livelihoods especially in the most critical areas.</p>

Climate change and food production in North West India

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Savita Ahlawat ◽  
Dhian Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
North West ◽  
Significant Change ◽  
Northwest Region

At present, climate change is one of the most challenging environmental issues as it poses potential threat to different sectors of economy at global level. Agriculture being an open activity is primarily dependent on climatic factors and change in climatic conditions affects the production, quality and quantity of crop production in an area. This paper attempts to study effects of only two parameters of climate i.e. temperature and rainfall on agricultural production in northwest region of India. Northwest region comprising of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu Kashmir states is the greatest food bowl of India contributing to its food security. The analysis of mean monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures (1901-2006) shows no significant change in temperature and rainfall conditions from 1901 to 1960; but afterward the change is more pronounced. On the whole any significant change in climatic conditions will not only challenge the food production of the region but also challenge the country’s food security situation.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on the first occurrence of the Light blight (Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary 1876)

2008 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-276
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
M. Trnka ◽  
M. Dubrovský ◽  
E. Kocmánková
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phytophthora Infestans ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Critical Number ◽  
State Institute ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Number Curve

The increase in the infestation pressure of various pathogens will be one the most important factors limiting the crop production under the future climate conditions. Weather driven NegFry model has been used for estimating future Phytophthora infestans occurrence at four experimental potato stations of the State Institute for Agriculture Supervision and Testing. Both the infestation dates of Phytophthora infestans occurrence and the shape of the critical number curve were analyzed using observed weather data as well as datasets constructed according to four climate change scenarios that were based on two global circulation models. The results show the shift of the infestation pressure to the beginning of the year and describe increasing trend of critical number reaching to detecting of the first Phyto­phtho­ra infestans occurrence for 2025 and 2050. Scenarios created according to HadCM and SRES – A2 seem to be more suitable for disease development.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 684
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Juan Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South America ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pests ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Xiaozhou Li ◽  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽  
Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

scholarly journals Building Climate-Resilient Cotton Production System for Changing Climate Scenarios Using the DSSAT Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 10495
Author(s):  
Zoia Arshad Awan ◽  
Tasneem Khaliq ◽  
Muhammad Masood Akhtar ◽  
Asad Imran ◽  
Muhammad Irfan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Cotton Crop ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Future

Cotton production is highly vulnerable to climate change, and heat stress is a major constraint in the cotton zone of Punjab, Pakistan. Adaptation is perceived as a critical step to deal with forecasted and unexpected climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to standardize and authenticate a cotton crop model based on climate and crop husbandry data in order to develop an adaptation package for cotton crop production in the wake of climate change. For the study, the data were collected from the cotton-growing areas of Punjab, viz. Bahawalpur and Khanewal. After the calibration and validation against field data, the Cropping System Model CSM–CROPGRO–Cotton in the shell of the decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT) was run with a future climate generated under two representative concentrations pathways (RCPs), viz. RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 with five global circulation models (GCMs). The whole study showed that a model is an artistic tool for examining the temporal variation in cotton and determining the potential impact of planting dates on crop growth, phenology, and yield. The results showed that the future climate would have drastic effects on cotton production in the project area. Reduction in seed cotton yield (SCY) was 25.7% and 32.2% under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The comparison of five GCMs showed that a hot/wet climate would be more damaging than other scenarios. The simulations with different production options showed that a 10% and 5% increase in nitrogen and plant population, respectively, compared to the present would be the best strategy in the future. The model further suggested that planting conducted 15 days earlier, combined with the use of water and nitrogen (fertigation), would help to improve yield with 10% less water under the future climate. Overall, the proposed adaptation package would help to recover 33% and 37% of damages in SCY due to the climate change scenarios of RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed package would also help the farmers increase crop yield by 7.5% over baseline (current) yield.

scholarly journals Climate change in MATOPIBA region of Brazil using Thornthwaite (1948) classification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
LUCAS Eduardo OLIVEIRA-APARECIDO ◽  
Alexson Filgueiras Dutra ◽  
Pedro Antonio Lorençone ◽  
Francisco de Alcântara Neto ◽  
João Antonio Lorençon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Face ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Classification Index

Abstract Identify the climatic characterization of a region and its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its changes in the face of climate change events, is essential for agrometeorological studies because they can assist in the planning of strategies that reduce the negative impacts generated in the cultures exposed to critical climatic conditions. Thus, this study aimed to characterize the climatic conditions of the MATOPIBA region and its changes in scenarios of climate change using the classification index of Thornthwaite (1948). Daily time series of rainfall and temperature data in the 1950–1990 period were used, arranged in a 0.25º × 0.25º grid, covering 467 points over the studied region. The data set was used to estimate climatological water balance and climate index Thornthwaite (1948), and obtain the trends climatological according to IPCC (2014) climate change projections, with changes in the average air temperature (+ 1.5°C and − 1.5°C) and precipitation (+ 30% and − 30%). The MATOPIBA region is characterized by its humid, dry subhumid, and Moist subhumid climate, with the rainy seasons, between October and April, and drought, from May to September, well defined. In MATOPIBA climate change scenarios, climatic extreme indices tend to alter the pattern, frequency, and distribution of climate class, which can increase climate risk and impact crop production. Therefore, the results obtained can be used to develop strategies to mitigate the vulnerability of crops to climate change conditions.

Same soil - different climate: crop model inter-comparison with lysimeter data of translocated monoliths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jannis Groh ◽  
Horst H. Gerke ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Soil Ecosystem ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Crop Models

<p>Crop model comparisons have mostly been carried out to test predictive ability under previous climate conditions and for soils of the same location. However, the ability of individual agricultural models to predict the effects of changes in climatic conditions on soil-ecosystems beyond the range of site-specific variability is unknown. The objective of this study was to test the predictive ability of agroecosystem models using weighable lysimeter data for the same soil under changing climatic conditions and to compare simulated plant growth and soil-ecosystem response to climate change between these models. To achieve this, data from the TERENO-SOILCan lysimeters-network for a soil-ecosystem at the original site (Dedelow) and data from the lysimeters with Dedelow soil monoliths transferred to Bad Lauchstädt and Selhausen were analysed. The transfer of the soils took place to a drier and warmer location (Bad Lauchstädt) and to a warmer and wetter location (Selhausen) compared to the original location of the soils in Dedelow with the same crop rotation. After model calibration for data from the original Dedelow site, crop growth and soil water balances of transferred Dedelow soil monoliths were predicted using the site-specific boundary conditions and compared with the observations at Selhausen and Bad Lauchstädt. The overall simulation output of the models was separated into a plant-related part, ecosystem-productivity (grain yield, biomass, LAI) and an environmental part, ecosystem-fluxes (evapotranspiration, net-drainage, soil moisture). The results showed that when the soil was transferred to a drier region, the agronomic part of the crop models predicted well, and when the soil was moved to wetter regions, the environmental flow part of the models seemed to predict better. The results suggest that accounting for climate change scenarios, more consideration of soil properties and testing model performance for conditions outside the calibrated range and site-specific variability will help improve the models.</p>

scholarly journals Climate suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) in Malawi using climate change scenarios

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. e0257007
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽  
Kadmiel Maseyk ◽  
Shonil A. Bhagwat ◽  
Kauê de Sousa ◽  
Andrew Emmott ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Climate Suitability

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people reliant upon those crop species as food sources and for income generation. Macadamia is one of Malawi’s most important and profitable crop species; however, climate change threatens its production. Thus, this study’s objective is to quantitatively examine the potential impacts of climate change on the climate suitability for macadamia in Malawi. We utilized an ensemble model approach to predict the current and future (2050s) suitability of macadamia under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We achieved a good model fit in determining suitability classes for macadamia (AUC = 0.9). The climatic variables that strongly influence macadamia’s climatic suitability in Malawi are suggested to be the precipitation of the driest month (29.1%) and isothermality (17.3%). Under current climatic conditions, 57% (53,925 km2) of Malawi is climatically suitable for macadamia. Future projections suggest that climate change will decrease the suitable areas for macadamia by 18% (17,015 km2) and 21.6% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with the distribution of suitability shifting northwards in the 2050s. The southern and central regions of the country will suffer the greatest losses (≥ 8%), while the northern region will be the least impacted (4%). We conclude that our study provides critical evidence that climate change will reduce the suitable areas for macadamia production in Malawi, depending on climate drivers. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience among producers.

scholarly journals Effect of climate change on food production and its implication in Nepal

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 40-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
MN Paudel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Higher Plants ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
The World ◽  
Food Commodities ◽  
Substantial Decline

Climate change is a complex phenomenon. Now climate change has become a buzz word in general and particular to agriculture and food security. It is true for developing countries where there is a dearth of information to support and reject such a complex phenomena of this universally important aspect of nature. Climate change is as unpredictable as the movement of a bird in the sky that even an ornithologist cannot predict the movement of a falcon that is swinging in the air and so is the case of climate change even for meteorologists working in the World Meteorological Station. The main concern about climate change and food security is that changing climatic conditions can initiate a vicious circle where infectious diseases cause or compound hunger, which, in turn, make the affected populations more susceptible to infectious disease. The result can be a substantial decline in labor productivity and an increase in poverty and even mortality. Essentially all manifestations of climate change, such as drought, higher temperatures, or heavy rainfalls could have an impact on the disease pressure on plants and animals. Also, climate change could affect food safety and food security. It is anticipated that due to climate change many flora and fauna including humans, higher plants and animals will face new diseases due to easily expansion of diseases causing epidemic cycle making more favorable to pathogens in different parts of the world. There will be a continuous outbreak of such diseases making hunger and malnutrition more severe than ever and consequently affect for important food commodities due to changing climate of tropical, temperate and equatorial zones, the main biodiversity zones for population and food production as well. Hence, this paper tries to provide a brief review on climate change with respect to food security and crop production, which, ultimately, could suggest agronomic measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change and adopt vagaries of climate change in the days ahead for an agrarian country like Nepal. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ajn.v1i0.7541 Agronomy Journal of Nepal (Agron JN) Vol. 1: 2010 pp.40-49

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