Large Increasing Trend of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in Taiwan and the Roles of Terrain and Southwest Monsoon

2017 ◽  
pp. 255-265
Author(s):  
Hung-Chi Kuo ◽  
Chih-Pei Chang ◽  
Yi-Ting Yang ◽  
Yu-Han Chen ◽  
Shih-Hao Su ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Increasing Trend

scholarly journals Seasonal Nature and Trends of Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Intensity over the North Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 526-534
Author(s):  
Abhisek Pal ◽  
Soumendu Chatterjee
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Post Monsoon Season ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region showed significant amount of both spatial and temporal variability.It was observed that the TC genesis was significantly suppressed during the monsoon (June-September) compared to pre-monsoon (March-May) and post-monsoon (October-December) season specifically in terms of severe cyclonic storms (SCS) frequency. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) was characterized by higher TC frequency but lower intensity compared to the Arabian Sea (AS). It was also observed that the TC genesis locations were shifted significantly seasonally.The movement of the TCs also portrayed some significant seasonal differences. The pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season was responsible for generating TCs with higher values of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) compared to the monsoon. The time series of TC frequency showed a statistically significant decreasing trend whereas the time series of ACE showed astatistically significant increasing trend over the NIO.

scholarly journals Rainfall Profile of Cauvery Delta Zone of Tamil Nadu

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 524-530
Author(s):  
N. K Sathyamoorthy ◽  
R Jagannathan ◽  
A. P Ramaraj
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Water Crisis ◽  
Canal Irrigation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Hot Weather ◽  
Cauvery Delta ◽  
Normal Rainfall

Thanjavur and Nagapattinam districts of Cauvery Delta Zone (CDZ) depend on canal irrigation for agriculture and are subjected to the vagaries of monsoon. This creates water crisis and affects agriculture of the region considered as rice bowl of Tamil Nadu. This necessitated the study of rainfall to plan and mitigate water scarcity. Rainfall data from Adhirampattinam, Aduthurai stations of Thanjavur district (Inland) and Nagapattinam station (Coastal area of Nagapattinam district) were utilized for the study. Normal rainfall of CDZ is 956 mm; Nagapattinam receives highest (1350 mm) and aduthurai (994 mm) recorded lowest. November is the wettest month for all locations while driest month differs among locations. Northeast monsoon (NEM) was considered as stable monsoon for CDZ as could be seen from the seasonal mean of 641 mm, 620 mm and 919 mm recorded by Adhirampattinam, Aduthurai and Nagapattinam, respectively. Trend analysis of seasons revealed that Adhirampattinam and Nagapattinam follow a decreasing trend for rainfall and rainydays during NEM and Southwest monsoon (SWM), with an increasing trend for Hot weather period (HWP) and Cold weather period (CWP). An interesting deviation is that Aduthurai recording an increasing trend for NEM while it followed same trend for HWP and SWM.

scholarly journals Large Increasing Trend of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in Taiwan and the Roles of Terrain

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (12) ◽  
pp. 4138-4147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Pei Chang ◽  
Yi-Ting Yang ◽  
Hung-Chi Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Steering Flow ◽  
Terrain Effects ◽  
Typhoon Center ◽  
The Taiwan Strait ◽  
In The Beginning

Abstract Taiwan, which is in the middle of one of the most active of the western North Pacific Ocean’s tropical cyclone (TC) zones, experienced a dramatic increase in typhoon-related rainfall in the beginning of the twenty-first century. This record-breaking increase has led to suggestions that it is the manifestation of the effects of global warming. With rainfall significantly influenced by its steep terrain, Taiwan offers a natural laboratory to study the role that terrain effects may play in the climate change of TC rainfall. Here, it is shown that most of the recently observed large increases in typhoon-related rainfall are the result of slow-moving TCs and the location of their tracks relative to the meso-α-scale terrain. In addition, stronger interaction between the typhoon circulation and southwest monsoon wind surges after the typhoon center moves into the Taiwan Strait may cause a long-term trend of increasing typhoon rainfall intensity, which is not observed before the typhoon center exits Taiwan. The variation in the location of the track cannot be related to the effects of global warming on western North Pacific TC tracks reported in the literature. The weaker steering flow and the stronger monsoon–TC interaction are consistent with the recently discovered multidecadal trend of intensifying subtropical monsoon and tropical circulations, which is contrary to some theoretical and model projections of global warming. There is also no evidence of a positive feedback between global warming–related water vapor supply and TC intensity, as the number of strong landfalling TCs has decreased significantly since 1960 and the recent heavy rainfall typhoons are all of weak-to-medium intensity.

scholarly journals Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Rainfall in the Philippines

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (10) ◽  
pp. 3621-3633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerry Bagtasa
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
High Tc ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC)-induced rainfall (TC rain) in the Philippines was investigated using a combination of ground and satellite observations to produce a blended 64-yr precipitation dataset. A total of 1673 TCs were examined using best track data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Rainfall from 100 (~1110 km) of the TC center was considered as TC-induced rainfall. TC rain contribution is highest in the northern Philippines, particularly along the western coast of Luzon (up to 54%), and lowest in the southern islands of Mindanao (6%). The high TC rain contribution is attributed to the enhancement of the Asian southwest monsoon by TCs located to the northeast of the Philippines. An unsupervised clustering method, k-means clustering, was used to divide the archipelago into four climate subtypes according to monthly rainfall variation. Interannual variability of rainfall from climate clusters with high TC rain contribution generally follows the variability of TC rain. On the other hand, the variability of low TC rain clusters is mainly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). All clusters show increasing trends of 16.9%–19.3% decade−1 in TC rain percentage contribution since 2000. This study hypothesizes that this increasing trend is due to changes in the characteristics of TC steering mechanisms and thermodynamic properties east of the Philippines in the past one and a half decades.

scholarly journals The dominant role of East Asia warming in increasing tropical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhao ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
Johnny Chan ◽  
Ming Shi ◽  
Chi Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
South Asian High ◽  
Asian Continent ◽  
Increasing Trend

Abstract The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been linked to a warming ocean1-8. Here we show, however, that the TC intensity increasing trend in the tropical WNP during the past three decades are mainly related to the warming of the East Asian continent, especially a warming Tibetan Plateau (TP). The regional weak increasing trend of local sea surface temperature unlikely supplies the necessary energy for this increase in TC intensity. Instead, a weakened vertical wind shear (VWS) appears to be the main contributing factor. Through numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the warming TP strengthens the South Asian high-pressure system, which triggers a wave train toward the tropical WNP, subsequently modifying the upper- and lower-tropospheric zonal winds to reduce the VWS. Applying the high correlation between TC intensity and the local VWS to climate model projection results supports that TCs will likely become stronger, with a significantly increasing rate of 1.0 m s-1/10 years during 2021–2050, due to a further warming of the East Asian continent. Thus, the rims of East Asia and Southeast Asia could face an increasing risk of intense typhoons.

scholarly journals Statistical–Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Warming Climate: Two Diverging Genesis Scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (11) ◽  
pp. 4815-4834 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chia-Ying Lee ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Adam H. Sobel ◽  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project

AbstractTropical cyclone (TC) activity is examined using the Columbia Hazard model (CHAZ), a statistical–dynamical downscaling system, with environmental conditions taken from simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for both the historical period and a future scenario under the representative concentration pathway 8.5. Projections of individual global and basin TC frequency depend sensitively on the choice of moisture variable used in the tropical genesis cyclone index (TCGI) component of CHAZ. Simulations using column relative humidity show an increasing trend in the future, while those using saturation deficit show a decreasing trend, although both give similar results in the historical period. While the projected annual TC frequency is also sensitive to the choice of model used to provide the environmental conditions, the choice of humidity variable in the TCGI is more important. Changes in TC frequency directly affect the projected TCs’ tracks and the frequencies of strong storms on both basin and regional scales. This leads to large uncertainty in assessing regional and local storm hazards. The uncertainty here is fundamental and epistemic in nature. Increases in the fraction of major TCs, rapid intensification rate, and decreases in forward speed are insensitive to TC frequency, however. The present results are also consistent with prior studies in indicating that those TC events that do occur will, on average, be more destructive in the future because of the robustly projected increases in intensity.

Trends in Landfalling Tropical Cyclone–Induced Precipitation over China

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 2223-2235
Author(s):  
Lu Liu ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Increasing Trend

AbstractIn this study, trends in landfalling tropical cyclone (TC)-induced precipitation over China during 1980–2017 and the involved possible mechanisms are analyzed. Consistent with previous studies, it is found that the total annual TC precipitation shows a distinct spatial distribution with a significant increasing trend in southeastern China but a decreasing trend in southern China. This characteristic is found to be related to the increase in both the annual TC precipitation frequency and the precipitation intensity per TC over southeastern China but to the decrease in the annual TC precipitation frequency over southern China. A noticeable northward shift of total landfalling TC-induced annual precipitation has been identified. It is shown that the precipitation induced by strong TCs (STCs) significantly increased in southern China, whereas that induced by weak TCs (WTCs) increased in southeastern China, with the latter dominating the northward shift of total landfalling TC-induced precipitation over mainland China. The increasing trend of STC-induced precipitation in southern China is found to be closely related to sufficient water vapor supply and the increase in average duration and intensity of STCs after landfall. The increasing trend of WTC-induced precipitation in southeastern China is related to the northward shift of the average landfalling position of WTCs and changes in the environmental conditions that are more favorable for TC maintenance and precipitation.

scholarly journals Parameterization of energy cycles between the hemispheres

2020 ◽  
Vol 103 (2) ◽  
pp. 003685042092277
Author(s):  
Nabil H Swedan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Climate Cycle ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Subject

Seasonal variations in the temperatures of the hemispheres induce seasonal energy cycles between the hemispheres that drive tropical cyclones. Because the northern hemisphere has warmed more than the southern hemisphere, climate energy cycles develop between the hemispheres as well. The seasonal and climate energy cycles appear to interact among themselves, and tropical cyclone counts are affected by these interactions. Furthermore, the total number of tropical cyclones appears to have an increasing trend. The annual energy of tropical cyclones is nearly 1.46 × 1022 J yr−1, and climate cycle energy is between 4.0 and 6.6 × 1021 J per cycle. The magnitude of the climate energy cycles is thus large enough to alter the energy and frequency of the tropical cyclones. Given that the climate is changing, the energy and frequency of tropical cyclones may be changing as well. The subject is broad and this work is limited to parameterization of the physics of energy oscillations between the hemispheres, demonstrating the existence of climate energy cycles, and revealing interactions between climate and seasonal energy cycles. Also, this parameterization may assist researchers in obtaining more and coordinated data relative to these cycles.

Tropical cyclone–southwest monsoon interaction and the 2008 floods and landslides in Panay island, central Philippines: meteorological and geological factors

2012 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 827-840 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graciano P. Yumul ◽  
Nathaniel T. Servando ◽  
Leilanie O. Suerte ◽  
Mae Y. Magarzo ◽  
Leo V. V. Juguan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Geological Factors

Trends in Periprosthetic Knee Infection and Associated Costs: A Population-Based Study Using National Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Brochin ◽  
Jashvant Poeran ◽  
Khushdeep S. Vig ◽  
Aakash Keswani ◽  
Nicole Zubizarreta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Total Knee Arthroplasty ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Knee Arthroplasty ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Hospitalization Costs ◽  
Teaching Status ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Total Knee ◽  
Increasing Trends

AbstractGiven increasing demand for primary knee arthroplasties, revision surgery is also expected to increase, with periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) a main driver of costs. Recent data on national trends is lacking. We aimed to assess trends in PJI in total knee arthroplasty revisions and hospitalization costs. From the National Inpatient Sample (2003–2016), we extracted data on total knee arthroplasty revisions (n = 782,449). We assessed trends in PJI prevalence and (inflation-adjusted) hospitalization costs (total as well as per-day costs) for all revisions and stratified by hospital teaching status (rural/urban by teaching status), hospital bed size (≤299, 300–499, and ≥500 beds), and hospital region (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West). The Cochran–Armitage trend test (PJI prevalence) and linear regression determined significance of trends. PJI prevalence overall was 25.5% (n = 199,818) with a minor increasing trend: 25.3% (n = 7,828) in 2003 to 28.9% (n = 19,275) in 2016; p < 0.0001. Median total hospitalization costs for PJI decreased slightly ($23,247 in 2003–$20,273 in 2016; p < 0.0001) while median per-day costs slightly increased ($3,452 in 2003–$3,727 in 2016; p < 0.0001), likely as a function of decreasing length of stay. With small differences between hospitals, the lowest and highest PJI prevalences were seen in small (≤299 beds; 22.9%) and urban teaching hospitals (27.3%), respectively. In stratification analyses, an increasing trend in PJI prevalence was particularly seen in larger (≥500 beds) hospitals (24.4% in 2003–30.7% in 2016; p < 0.0001), while a decreasing trend was seen in small-sized hospitals. Overall, PJI in knee arthroplasty revisions appears to be slightly increasing. Moreover, increasing trends in large hospitals and decreasing trends in small-sized hospitals suggest a shift in patients from small to large volume hospitals. Decreasing trends in total costs, alongside increasing trends in per-day costs, suggest a strong impact of length of stay trends and a more efficient approach to PJI over the years (in terms of shorter length of stay).

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