SPREAD OF EPIDEMIC ON COMPLEX NETWORKS UNDER VOLUNTARY VACCINATION MECHANISM

2010 ◽  
Vol 21 (09) ◽  
pp. 1197-1206 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHENGJUN XUE ◽  
FENG RUAN ◽  
CHUANYANG YIN ◽  
HAIFENG ZHANG ◽  
BINGHONG WANG
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Function ◽  
Susceptible Individual ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Risk Functions ◽  
Voluntary Behavior ◽  
Uniform Case ◽  
The Waves ◽  
Voluntary Vaccination

Under the assumption that the decision of vaccination is a voluntary behavior, in this paper, we use two forms of risk functions to characterize how susceptible individuals estimate the perceived risk of infection. One is uniform case, where each susceptible individual estimates the perceived risk of infection only based on the density of infection at each time step, so the risk function is only a function of the density of infection; another is preferential case, where each susceptible individual estimates the perceived risk of infection not only based on the density of infection but only related to its own activities/immediate neighbors (in network terminology, the activity or the number of immediate neighbors is the degree of node), so the risk function is a function of the density of infection and the degree of individuals. By investigating two different ways of estimating the risk of infection for susceptible individuals on complex network, we find that, for the preferential case, the spread of epidemic can be effectively controlled; yet, for the uniform case, voluntary vaccination mechanism is almost invalid in controlling the spread of epidemic on networks. Furthermore, given the temporality of some vaccines, the waves of epidemic for two cases are also different. Therefore, our work insight that the way of estimating the perceived risk of infection determines the decision on vaccination options, and then determines the success or failure of control strategy.

scholarly journals Prosocial behavior of wearing a mask during an epidemic: an evolutionary explanation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Ariful Kabir ◽  
Tori Risa ◽  
Jun Tanimoto
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Social Dilemma ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Susceptible Individual ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Usual Behavior ◽  
Spread Of Infection

AbstractIn the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, with limited or no supplies of vaccines and treatments, people and policymakers seek easy to implement and cost-effective alternatives to combat the spread of infection during the pandemic. The practice of wearing a mask, which requires change in people’s usual behavior, may reduce disease transmission by preventing the virus spread from infectious to susceptible individuals. Wearing a mask may result in a public good game structure, where an individual does not want to wear a mask but desires that others wear it. This study develops and analyzes a new intervention game model that combines the mathematical models of epidemiology with evolutionary game theory. This approach quantifies how people use mask-wearing and related protecting behaviors that directly benefit the wearer and bring some advantage to other people during an epidemic. At each time-step, a suspected susceptible individual decides whether to wear a facemask, or not, due to a social learning process that accounts for the risk of infection and mask cost. Numerical results reveal a diverse and rich social dilemma structure that is hidden behind this mask-wearing dilemma. Our results highlight the sociological dimension of mask-wearing policy.

SOURCES OF INFORMATION ABOUT HIV/AIDS, TRUST OF SOURCES AND PERCEIVED RISK OF INFECTION

1994 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Perri Timmins ◽  
Cynthia Gallois ◽  
Malcolm McCamish ◽  
Yoshihisa Kashima ◽  
Deborah Terry
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Hiv Aids

scholarly journals Wavelet-based Decomposition of Ground Acceleration for Efficient Calculation of Seismic Response in Elastoplastic Structures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Kamgar ◽  
Noorollah Majidi ◽  
Ali Heidari
Keyword(s):  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Continuous Wavelet Transform ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamic ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis ◽  
Continuous Wavelet ◽  
Frequency Content ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Integration Schemes ◽  
The Waves

The nonlinear dynamic analysis provides a more accurate simulation of the structural behavior against earthquakes. On the other hand, this analysis method is time-consuming since the time-step integration schemes are used to calculate the responses of the structure. Wavelet transform is also considered as one of the strong computing tools in studying the properties of the waves. The continuous wavelet transform is a time-frequency study and examines the frequency content of the waves while, the discrete wavelet transform is used to reduce sampling data and also to eliminate the noise of the waves. In this paper, the discrete and continuous wavelet transforms are used to reduce the wave sampling and therefore to reduce the required time for analysis. In this regard, eight near- and far- field earthquakes are studied. The frequency content of the earthquake is investigated by the Fourier spectrum and the continuous wavelet transform. The results show that the first five frequencies for the main earthquakes are similar to those values of earthquakes obtained by wavelet transform. Besides, it is shown that using wavelet transform for the main and decomposed earthquakes indicates that the duration of strong ground motion and the time of dominant frequency occur approximately in the same domain. Finally, it is concluded that the required calculation time reduces to about 80 % with an error less than 6 % when the main earthquake is decomposed by wavelet transform and the approximation waves are used in the nonlinear dynamic analysis.

scholarly journals ‘Immunity Passports’ for SARS-CoV-2: an online experimental study of the impact of antibody test terminology on perceived risk and behaviour

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. e040448
Author(s):  
Jo Waller ◽  
G James Rubin ◽  
Henry W W Potts ◽  
Abigail L Mottershaw ◽  
Theresa M Marteau
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Antibody Test ◽  
Open Science ◽  
Hand Washing ◽  
Physical Contact ◽  
Positive Test ◽  
Positive Test Result ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Test Result

ObjectiveTo assess the impact of describing an antibody-positive test result using the terms Immunity and Passport or Certificate, alone or in combination, on perceived risk of becoming infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and protective behaviours.Design2×3 experimental design.SettingOnline.Participants1204 adults from a UK research panel.InterventionParticipants were randomised to receive one of six descriptions of an antibody test and results showing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, differing in the terms describing the type of test (Immunity vs Antibody) and the test result (Passport vs Certificate vs Test).Main outcome measuresPrimary outcome: proportion of participants perceiving no risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 given an antibody-positive test result. Other outcomes include: intended changes to frequency of hand washing and physical distancing.ResultsWhen using the term Immunity (vs Antibody), 19.1% of participants (95% CI 16.1% to 22.5%) (vs 9.8% (95% CI 7.5% to 12.4%)) perceived no risk of catching coronavirus given an antibody-positive test result (adjusted OR (AOR): 2.91 (95% CI 1.52 to 5.55)). Using the terms Passport or Certificate—as opposed to Test—had no significant effect (AOR: 1.24 (95% CI 0.62 to 2.48) and AOR: 0.96 (95% CI 0.47 to 1.99) respectively). There was no significant interaction between the effects of the test and result terminology. Across groups, perceiving no risk of infection was associated with an intention to wash hands less frequently (AOR: 2.32 (95% CI 1.25 to 4.28)); there was no significant association with intended avoidance of physical contact (AOR: 1.37 (95% CI 0.93 to 2.03)).ConclusionsUsing the term Immunity (vs Antibody) to describe antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2 increases the proportion of people believing that an antibody-positive result means they have no risk of catching coronavirus in the future, a perception that may be associated with less frequent hand washing.Trial registration numberOpen Science Framework: https://osf.io/tjwz8/files/

scholarly journals Differential Psychological Factors Associated With Unnecessary Dental Avoidance and Attendance Behavior During the Early COVID-19 Epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Feng Wen ◽  
Peng Fang ◽  
Jia-xi Peng ◽  
Shengjun Wu ◽  
Xufeng Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Dental Treatment ◽  
Bivariate Analysis ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Treatment Need ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Dental Attendance ◽  
Increased Risk

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is challenging the dental community to an unprecedented degree. Knowledge of the increased risk of infection in dental settings has been disseminated to the public and guidelines have been formulated to assist dental attendance decision-making. However, dental attendance behaviors incompatible with treatment need is not uncommon in clinical settings. Important gaps remain in the knowledge about how psychological factors are affecting dental attendance behaviors during the COVID-19 epidemic. In this cross-sectional study, a questionnaire survey was performed during February and March 2020. A total of 342 and 294 dental patients who attended and avoided dental visits, respectively, were included. The participants were classified into four groups based on dental attendance behavior and emergent/urgent dental treatment need. Bivariate analysis was performed to investigate factors associated with dental attendance. Multivariable logistic regression based on principal component scores was performed to identify major psychological constructs associated with unnecessary dental avoidance and attendance. Among all the factors explored, inability to wear masks during dental treatment (P < 0.001; effect size: 0.32) was most closely associated with the overall pattern of dental attendance among participants. Multivariable regression suggested that unnecessary dental avoidance was associated with perceived risk of infection in general and in dental settings (odds ratio [95% CI]: 0.62 [0.53, 0.72]; p < 0.001), perceived impact of COVID-19 and dental problems on general health (0.79 [0.65, 0.97]; 0.021), and personal traits such as trust and anxiety (0.77 [0.61, 0.98]; 0.038). Unnecessary dental attendance was associated with optimism toward the epidemic (1.68 [1.42, 2.01]; <0.001) and trust (1.39 [1.13, 1.74]; 0.002). Multidisciplinary efforts involving dental and medical professionals as well as psychologists are warranted to promote more widespread adoption, among the general public, of dental attendance behaviors compatible with dental treatment need during the COVID-19 epidemic.

scholarly journals Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis G. Nardin ◽  
Craig R. Miller ◽  
Benjamin J. Ridenhour ◽  
Stephen M. Krone ◽  
Paul Joyce ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Behavioral Decision ◽  
Protection Efficacy ◽  
Planning Horizons

AbstractHuman behavior can change the spread of infectious disease. There is limited understanding of how the time in the future over which individuals make a behavioral decision, their planning horizon, affects epidemic dynamics. We developed an agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with individuals' payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual’s perceived risk of infection.

scholarly journals Inverse Optimization of Convex Risk Functions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Yu-Meng Li
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Risk Function ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Inverse Optimization ◽  
Translation Invariance ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Risk Minimization ◽  
Risk Functions ◽  
Polynomially Solvable

The theory of convex risk functions has now been well established as the basis for identifying the families of risk functions that should be used in risk-averse optimization problems. Despite its theoretical appeal, the implementation of a convex risk function remains difficult, because there is little guidance regarding how a convex risk function should be chosen so that it also well represents a decision maker’s subjective risk preference. In this paper, we address this issue through the lens of inverse optimization. Specifically, given solution data from some (forward) risk-averse optimization problem (i.e., a risk minimization problem with known constraints), we develop an inverse optimization framework that generates a risk function that renders the solutions optimal for the forward problem. The framework incorporates the well-known properties of convex risk functions—namely, monotonicity, convexity, translation invariance, and law invariance—as the general information about candidate risk functions, as well as feedback from individuals—which include an initial estimate of the risk function and pairwise comparisons among random losses—as the more specific information. Our framework is particularly novel in that unlike classical inverse optimization, it does not require making any parametric assumption about the risk function (i.e., it is nonparametric). We show how the resulting inverse optimization problems can be reformulated as convex programs and are polynomially solvable if the corresponding forward problems are polynomially solvable. We illustrate the imputed risk functions in a portfolio selection problem and demonstrate their practical value using real-life data. This paper was accepted by Yinyu Ye, optimization.

scholarly journals Assessing knowledge, concerns, and risk perceptions among Italian medical students during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfredi Greco ◽  
Elisa Maietti ◽  
Flavia Rallo ◽  
Chiara Reno ◽  
Davide Trerè ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Students ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Volunteer Work ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Preventive Practices ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTIONDuring the first phase of COVID-19 pandemic, Italian medical students transitioned from in-person to remote learning. This study was carried out to early assess students’ sources of information, perceived risk of infection, knowledge and preventive practices in order to resume academic activity. The impact of training and volunteer work was also assessed.METHODSA cross-sectional online survey was conducted in May 2020 among medical students enrolled in the School of Medicine and Surgery, Bologna University.RESULTSThe analysis included 537 responses. On average students used seven sources of information on COVID-19. Scientific journals were considered the most trustworthy but they ranked only 6th in the frequency of use. Perceived risk of infection was higher for academic activities, especially in the hospital than daily living activities. Less than 50% of students reported being trained on biological risk and use of PPE. Training received was significantly associated with both perceived risk of infection and confidence in the use of PPE. Students engaged in volunteer work had higher confidence in PPE usage.DISCUSSIONAccessible scientific information and students’ engagement in spreading correct knowledge play an important role in challenging misinformation during the pandemic crisis. Students showed suboptimal knowledge about PPE use, calling for additional training. We found a moderate-high perceived risk of infection that could be mitigated with specific educational programs and by promoting voluntary work. Students’ engagement in public health emergencies (PHE) could potentially be beneficial for their training and as well as for the healthcare system.

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