Comment on "Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change"

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 1482001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rolf Müller ◽  
Jens-Uwe Grooß
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Alternative Mechanism ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loss Rates

Lu's "cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory" is based on the assumption that the CRE reaction of halogenated molecules (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), HCl, ClONO2) adsorbed or trapped in polar stratospheric clouds in the winter polar stratosphere is the key step in forming photoactive halogen species that are the cause of the springtime ozone hole. This theory has been extended to a warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. In this comment, we discuss the chemical and physical foundations of these theories and the conclusions derived from the theories. First, it is unclear whether the loss rates of halogenated molecules induced by dissociative electron attachment (DEA) observed in the laboratory can also be interpreted as atmospheric loss rates, but even if this were the case, the impact of DEA-induced reactions on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere is limited. Second, we falsify several conclusions that are reported on the basis of the CRE theory: There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1–2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20–25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error. There are also conclusions about the future development of sea ice and global sea level which are fundamentally flawed because Archimedes' principle is neglected. Many elements of the CRE theory are based solely on correlations between certain datasets which are no substitute for providing physical and chemical mechanisms causing a particular behavior noticeable in observations. In summary, the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent, alternative mechanism for polar stratospheric ozone loss and the conclusions on recent and future surface temperature and global sea level change do not have a physical basis.

Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Rolf Müller and Jens-Uwe Grooß"

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 1482002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q.-B. Lu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Polar Stratosphere ◽  
The Impact

In their Comment, Müller and Grooß continuously use problematic "observed data" and misleading arguments to make a case against our CRE mechanism of the ozone hole and CFC-warming mechanism of global climate change. They make the groundless assertion that the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent process for ozone loss in the polar stratosphere. Their claim that the impact of the CRE mechanism on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere would be limited does not agree with the observed data over the past decades. They also make many contradictory and fact-distorting arguments that "There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1–2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20–25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error." These assertions ignore and contradict a great deal of robust observed data from both laboratory and field measurements reported in the literature including their own publications. Their new argument for the photodissociation of CFCs on PSCs also contradicts their previous extraordinary efforts including the use of fabricated "ACE-FTS satellite data" to argue for no physical/chemical loss of CFCs in the winter lower polar stratosphere. Finally, they do not provide any scientific evidence to support their criticism for the no physical basis of the CFC-warming theory and its conclusions. In summary, their misleading arguments and false "data" do not change the convincing conclusion reached by robust observations in my recent paper that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O 3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact in the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon Ecosystem: A Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lopes ◽  
Lopes ◽  
Dias
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Inorganic Nitrogen ◽  
Nitrogen Concentration ◽  
Ria De Aveiro ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Aveiro Lagoon

Climate change and global sea-level rise are major issues of the 21st century. The main goal of this study is to assess the physical and biogeochemical status of the Ria de Aveiro lagoon (Portugal) under future climate scenarios, using a coupled physical/ eutrophication model. The impact on the lagoon ecosystem status of the mean sea level rise (MSLR), the amplitude rise of the M2 tidal constituent (M2R), the changes in the river discharge, and the rising of the air temperature was investigated. Under MSLR and M2R, the results point to an overall salinity increase and water temperature decrease, revealing ocean water dominance. The main lagoon areas presented salinity values close to those of the ocean waters (~34 PSU), while a high range of salinity was presented for the river and the far end areas (20–34 PSU). The water temperature showed a decrease of approximately 0.5–1.5 °C. The responses of the biogeochemical variables reflect the increase of the oceanic inflow (transparent and nutrient-poor water) or the reduction of the river flows (nutrient-rich waters). The results evidenced, under the scenarios, an overall decreasing of the inorganic nitrogen concentration and the carbon phytoplankton concentrations. A warm climate, although increasing the water temperature, does not seem to affect the lagoon’s main status, at least in the frame of the model used in the study.

scholarly journals A model study of the impact of source gas changes on the stratosphere for 1850–2100

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 8515-8541 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. L. Fleming ◽  
C. H. Jackman ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
A. R. Douglass
Keyword(s):  
Total Ozone ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Ch4 And N2o ◽  
The Impact ◽  
D Model ◽  
Total Column ◽  
Loss Rates

Abstract. The long-term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2-D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850–2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1960–2100 to illustrate that the 2-D model captures the basic processes responsible for long-term stratospheric change. The ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O impact ozone via several mechanisms. ODS and N2O loading decrease stratospheric ozone via the increases in atmospheric halogen and odd nitrogen species, respectively. CO2 loading impacts ozone by: (1) cooling the stratosphere which increases ozone via the reduction in the ozone chemical loss rates, and (2) accelerating the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) which redistributes ozone in the lower stratosphere. The net result of CO2 loading is an increase in global ozone in the total column and upper stratosphere. CH4 loading impacts ozone by: (1) increasing atmospheric H2O and the odd hydrogen species which decreases ozone via the enhanced HOx-ozone loss rates; (2) increasing the H2O cooling of the middle atmosphere which reduces the ozone chemical loss rates, partially offsetting the enhanced HOx-ozone loss; (3) converting active to reservoir chlorine via the reaction CH4+Cl→HCl+CH3 which leads to more ozone; and (4) increasing the NOx-ozone production in the troposphere. The net result of CH4 loading is an ozone decrease above 40–45 km, and an increase below 40–45 km and in the total column. The 2-D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that total column and upper stratospheric global ozone reach broad maxima during the 1920s–1930s. This precedes the significant ozone depletion during ~1960–2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, BDC, and age of air during 1850–2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the global average age of air above 22 km to decrease by ~1 yr from 1860–2100. The photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11–13 % during 1960–2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes (<4 %) caused by changes in the photochemical loss rates.

Periodically forced self-organization in the long-term evolution of planktic foraminifera

2001 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Prokoph ◽  
Anthony D Fowler ◽  
R Timothy Patterson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Logistic Map ◽  
Late Eocene ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Extinction Data ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
The Impact

Wavelet transform and other signal analysis techniques suggest that the planktic foraminiferal (PF) long-term evolutionary record of the last 127 Ma can be attributed to complex periodic and nonlinear patterns. Correlation of the PF extinction pattern with other geological series favors an origin of the ~30 Ma periodicity and self-organization by quasi-periodic mantle-plume cycles that in turn drive episodic volcanism, CO2-degassing, oceanic anoxic conditions, and sea-level fluctuations. Stationary ~30 Ma periodicity and a weak secular trend of ~100 Ma period are evident in the PF record, even without consideration of the mass extinction at the K–T boundary. The 27–32 Ma periodicity in the impact crater record and lows in the global sea-level curve, respectively, are ~6.5 Ma and ~2.3 Ma out of phase with PF-extinction data, although major PF-extinction events correspond to the bolide impacts at the K–T boundary and in late Eocene. Another six extinction events correspond to abrupt global sea-level falls between the late Albian and early Oligocene. Self-organization in the PF record is characterized by increased radiation rates after major extinction events and a steady number of baseline species. Our computer model of long-term PF evolution replicates this SO pattern. The model consists of output from the logistic map, which is forced at 30 Ma and 100 Ma frequencies. The model has significant correlations with the relative PF-extinction data. In particular, it replicates singularities, such as the K–T event, nonstationary 2.5–10 Ma periodicities, and phase shifts in the ~30 Ma periodicity of the PF record.

scholarly journals Climate Change Implications Found in Winter Extreme Sea Level Height Records around Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 377
Author(s):  
Dong Eun Lee ◽  
Jaehee Kim ◽  
Yujin Heo ◽  
Hyunjin Kang ◽  
Eun Young Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Thermal Expansion ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Storm Tracks ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Level Height

The impact of climatic variability in atmospheric conditions on coastal environments accompanies adjustments in both the frequency and intensity of coastal storm surge events. The top winter season daily maximum sea level height events at 20 tidal stations around South Korea were examined to assess such impact of winter extratropical cyclone variability. As the investigation focusses on the most extreme sea level events, the impact of climate change is found to be invisible. It is revealed that the measures of extreme sea level events—frequency and intensity—do not correlate with the local sea surface temperature anomalies. Meanwhile, the frequency of winter extreme events exhibits a clear association with the concurrent climatic indices. It was determined that the annual frequency of the all-time top 5% winter daily maximum sea level events significantly and positively correlates with the NINO3.4 and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices at the majority of the 20 tidal stations. Hence, this indicates an increase in extreme event frequency and intensity, despite localized temperature cooling. This contradicts the expectation of increases in local extreme sea level events due to thermal expansion and global climate change. During El Nino, it is suggested that northward shifts of winter storm tracks associated with El Nino occur, disturbing the sea level around Korea more often. The current dominance of interannual storm track shifts, due to climate variability, over the impact of slow rise on the winter extreme sea level events, implies that coastal extreme sea level events will change through changes in the mechanical drivers rather than thermal expansion. The major storm tracks are predicted to continue shifting northward. The winter extreme sea level events in the midlatitude coastal region might not go through a monotonic change. They are expected to occur more often and more intensively in the near future, but might not continue doing so when northward shifting storm tracks move away from the marginal seas around Korea, as is predicted by the end of the century.

The Impact of Climate Change on States

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kułaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

scholarly journals Rising Sea Level, Receding Boundaries and Freezing Baselines in a Warming Climate

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Emojong Amai Mercy ◽  
Eliud Garry Michura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Maritime Boundary ◽  
Climate Change Effect ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
Comprehensive Framework ◽  
Maritime Boundary Delimitation ◽  
International Boundaries

This paper discusses the less publicised but far from less significant, an issue of how the international community’s approach to maritime boundary delimitation will be impacted by climate change resulting in sea level rise with coastal lands submerging affecting the international boundaries and impacting on biodiversity and human survival in the future. The climate change effect is already creating pressure on international law regardless of the direction that the law of the sea takes in remedying this dilemma. It is quite apparent that global disputes and conflicts are arising and solutions are needed urgently. The climate change and the consequent global sea level rise are widely touted to submerge islands and coastlines without discrimination. The international community has been relatively slow to react to what could pose an unprecedented threat to human civilisation.  The policies that have been applied have arguably been reactive and not proactive.  In future climate change may develop other by-products which may not be understood at this moment and may require a proactive approach. Further discussion of the merits of the potential paths is ideal in ensuring that appropriate and well thought-out resolutions are negotiated. Regardless of the outcome, the thorough debate is required to ensure the correct decision is made and that the balancing act between fulfilling states' interests and achieving a meaningful result does not become detrimental to the solidity and the enforceability of the outcome. There is a need to establish a comprehensive framework for ocean governance for management and long-term development and sustainability.

scholarly journals Seasonal impact of biogenic VSL bromine on the evolution of mid-latitude lowermost stratospheric ozone during the 21<sup>st</sup> century

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javer A. Barrera ◽  
Rafael P. Fernandez ◽  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Carlos A. Cuevas ◽  
Jean-Francois Lamarque ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Total Ozone Column ◽  
Seasonal Impact ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ozone Column ◽  
Modelling Study

Abstract. Biogenic very short-lived bromine (VSLBr) represents, nowadays, ~ 25 % of the total stratospheric bromine loading. Owing to their much shorter lifetime compared to anthropogenic long-lived bromine (LLBr, e.g., halons) and chlorine (LLCl, e.g., chlorofluorocarbons) substances, the impact of VSLBr on ozone peaks at the extratropical lowermost stratosphere, a key climatic and radiative atmospheric region. Here we present a modelling study of the evolution of stratospheric ozone and its chemical losses in extra-polar regions during the 21st century, under two different scenarios: considering and neglecting the additional stratospheric injection of 5 ppt biogenic VSLBr naturally released from the ocean. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of VSLBr result in a realistic stratospheric bromine loading and improves the quantitative 1980–2015 model-satellite agreement of total ozone column (TOC) in the mid-latitudes. We show that the overall ozone response to VSLBr within the mid-latitudes follows the stratospheric abundances evolution of long-lived inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the 21st century. Additional ozone losses due to VSLBr are maximised during the present-day period (1990–2010), with TOC differences of −8 DU (−3 %) and −5.5 DU (−2 %) for the southern (SH-ML) and northern (NH-ML) mid-latitudes, respectively. Moreover, the projected TOC differences at the end of the 21st century are at least half of the values found for the present-day period. In the tropics, a small (

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document