THE TALENT VERSUS LUCK MODEL AS AN ENSEMBLE OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL RANDOM WALKS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICARDO SIMÃO ◽  
FRANCISCO ROSENDO ◽  
LUCAS WARDIL
Keyword(s):  
Random Walks ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Large Fluctuations ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Individual Success ◽  
Shed Light

The role of luck on individual success is hard to be investigated empirically. Simplified mathematical models are often used to shed light on the subtle relations between success and luck. Recently, a simple model called “Talent versus Luck” showed that the most successful individual in a population can be just an average talented individual that is subjected to a very fortunate sequence of events. Here, we modify the framework of the TvL model such that in our model the individuals’ success is modelled as an ensemble of one-dimensional random walks. Our model reproduces the original TvL results and, due to the mathematical simplicity, it shows clearly that the original conclusions of the TvL model are the consequence of two factors: first, the normal distribution of talents with low standard deviation, which creates a large number of average talented individuals; second, the low number of steps considered, which allows the observation of large fluctuations. We also show that the results strongly depend on the relative frequency of good and bad luck events, which defines a critical value for the talent: in the long run, the individuals with high talent end up very successful and those with low talent end up ruined. Last, we considered two variations to illustrate applications of the ensemble of random walks model.

Two Non-senses of “Probability”

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-76
Author(s):  
Wayne C. Myrvold
Keyword(s):  
Relative Frequency ◽  
The Other ◽  
Objective Probability ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
Principle Of Indifference ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Eighteenth And Nineteenth Centuries

This chapter engages in some ground-clearing. Two concepts have been proposed to play the role of objective probability. One is associated with the idea that probability involves mere counting of possibilities (often wrongly attributed to Laplace). The other is frequentism, the idea that probability can be defined as long-run relative frequency in some actual or hypothetical sequence of events. Associated with the idea that probability is merely a matter of counting of possibilities is a temptation to believe that there is a principle, called the Principle of Indifference, which can generate probabilities out of ignorance. In this chapter the reasons that neither of these approaches can achieve its goal are rehearsed, with reference to historical discussions in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. It includes some of the prehistory of discussions of what has come to be known, misleadingly, as Bertrand’s paradox.

scholarly journals Thermoelectric Properties of Sb-S System Compounds from DFT Calculations

Materials ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4707
Author(s):  
Hailong Yang ◽  
Pascal Boulet ◽  
Marie-Christine Record
Keyword(s):  
Seebeck Coefficient ◽  
Thermoelectric Properties ◽  
Electronic Structures ◽  
Density Functional ◽  
Lattice Thermal Conductivity ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
Functional Theory ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Shed Light

By combining density functional theory, quantum theory of atoms in molecules and transport properties calculations, we evaluated the thermoelectric properties of Sb-S system compounds and shed light on their relationships with electronic structures. The results show that, for Sb2S3, the large density of states (DOS) variation induces a large Seebeck coefficient. Taking into account the long-range weak bonds distribution, Sb2S3 should exhibit low lattice thermal conductivity. Therefore, Sb2S3 is promising for thermoelectric applications. The insertion of Be atoms into the Sb2S3 interstitial sites demonstrates the electrical properties and Seebeck coefficient anisotropy and sheds light on the understanding of the role of quasi-one-dimensional structure in the electron transport. The large interstitial sites existing in SbS2 are at the origin of phonons anharmonicity which counteracts the thermal transport. The introduction of Zn and Ga atoms into these interstitial sites could result in an enhancement of all the thermoelectric properties.

scholarly journals The antesonic condition for the explosion of core-collapse supernovae – II. Rotation and turbulence

2021 ◽  
Vol 502 (3) ◽  
pp. 4125-4136
Author(s):  
Matthias J Raives ◽  
Todd A Thompson ◽  
Sean M Couch
Keyword(s):  
Sound Speed ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Free Fall ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Core Collapse ◽  
Central Mass ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Post Shock ◽  
State Models

ABSTRACT In the problem of steady free fall on to a standing shockwave around a central mass, the ‘antesonic’ condition limits the regime of stable accretion to $c_T^2/v_\mathrm{esc}^2\le 3/16$, where cT is the isothermal sound speed in the subsonic post-shock flow, and vesc is the escape velocity at the shock radius. Above this limit, it is impossible to satisfy both the Euler equation and the shock jump conditions, and the system transitions to a wind. This physics explains the existence of a critical neutrino luminosity in steady-state models of accretion in the context of core-collapse supernovae. Here, we extend the antesonic condition to flows with rotation and turbulence using a simple one-dimensional formalism. Both effects decrease the critical post-shock sound speed required for explosion. While quite rapid rotation is required for a significant change to the critical condition, we show that the level of turbulence typically achieved in supernova simulations can greatly impact the critical value of $c_T^2/v_\mathrm{esc}^2$. A core angular velocity corresponding to a millisecond rotation period after contraction of the proto-neutron star results in only a ∼5 per cent reduction of the critical curve. In contrast, near-sonic turbulence with specific turbulent kinetic energy $K/c_T^2=0.5-1$, leads to a decrease in the critical value of $c_T^2/v_{\rm esc}^2$ by ∼20 to 40 per cent. This analysis provides a framework for understanding the role of post-shock turbulence in instigating explosions in models that would otherwise fail and helps explain why multidimensional simulations explode more easily than their one-dimensional counterparts.

scholarly journals Children’s intergroup prosocial behavior: The role of group stereotypes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jellie Sierksma
Keyword(s):  
Prosocial Behavior ◽  
Group Membership ◽  
Young Age ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growing Body ◽  
Group Members ◽  
Sharing Behavior ◽  
Shed Light

Children are prosocial from a young age onward but their prosocial actions are not necessarily egalitarian – especially with regard to others’ group membership. From around four years of age children tend to help and share more with in-group members compared to out-group members. However, a growing body of findings also suggest that sometimes children act more prosocially toward out-group members. How can we reconcile such seemingly contradicting behaviors? In this chapter, I describe how the salience of group stereotypes might shed light on these inconsistent findings. Specifically, different helping contexts can activate different group stereotypes. These different stereotypes could lead children to sometimes act more prosocially toward in-group peers, but sometimes show out-group bias in their helping or sharing behavior. For example, contexts that involve reciprocity could increase salience of a stereotype that out-groups are less trustworthy and thus children might be less inclined to share their resources with the out-group (i.e., in-group bias). Whereas an academic helping context might make a stereotype salient that entails out-groups are less competent and thus needing more help (i.e., out-group bias). Taking into account group stereotypes in children’s prosocial behavior will provide us with a deeper understanding of the underlying motivations that lead to selective prosociality in children. In the long run, such insights can contribute to combating discrimination and prejudice early in life.

The Human Medial Temporal Lobe Is Necessary for Remembering Durations within a Sequence of Events but Not Durations of Individual Events

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 497-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela J. Palombo ◽  
Allison G. Reid ◽  
Sathesan Thavabalasingam ◽  
Renée Hunsberger ◽  
Andy C. H. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Lobe ◽  
Medial Temporal Lobe ◽  
Internal Representation ◽  
Hippocampal Damage ◽  
Temporal Cognition ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
Temporal Aspects ◽  
Duration Information ◽  
Shed Light

Recent interest in the role of the hippocampus in temporal aspects of cognition has been fueled, in part, by the observation of “time” cells in the rodent hippocampus—that is, cells that have differential firing patterns depending on how long ago an event occurred. Such cells are thought to provide an internal representation of elapsed time. Yet, the hippocampus is not needed for processing temporal duration information per se, at least on the order of seconds, as evidenced by intact duration judgments in rodents and humans with hippocampal damage. Rather, it has been proposed that the hippocampus may be essential for coding higher order aspects of temporal mnemonic processing, such as those needed to temporally organize a sequence of events that form an episode. To examine whether (1) the hippocampus uses duration information in the service of establishing temporal relations among events and (2) its role in memory for duration is unique to sequences, we tested amnesic patients with medial-temporal lobe damage (including the hippocampus). We hypothesized that medial-temporal lobe damage should impair the ability to remember sequential duration information but leave intact judgments about duration devoid of a sequential demand. We found that amnesics were impaired in making judgments about durations within a sequence but not in judging single durations. This impairment was not due to higher cognitive load associated with duration judgments about sequences. In convergence with rodent and human fMRI work, these findings shed light on how time coding in the hippocampus may contribute to temporal cognition.

The Role of Zinc in Thyroid Hormones Metabolism

2019 ◽  
Vol 89 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 80-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliana Soares Severo ◽  
Jennifer Beatriz Silva Morais ◽  
Taynáh Emannuelle Coelho de Freitas ◽  
Ana Letícia Pereira Andrade ◽  
Mayara Monte Feitosa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Hormones ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Thyroid Stimulating Hormone ◽  
Zinc Transporters ◽  
Serum Concentrations ◽  
Metabolic Adaptations ◽  
Serum T3 ◽  
Regulatory Effects ◽  
Shed Light

Abstract. Thyroid hormones play an important role in body homeostasis by facilitating metabolism of lipids and glucose, regulating metabolic adaptations, responding to changes in energy intake, and controlling thermogenesis. Proper metabolism and action of these hormones requires the participation of various nutrients. Among them is zinc, whose interaction with thyroid hormones is complex. It is known to regulate both the synthesis and mechanism of action of these hormones. In the present review, we aim to shed light on the regulatory effects of zinc on thyroid hormones. Scientific evidence shows that zinc plays a key role in the metabolism of thyroid hormones, specifically by regulating deiodinases enzymes activity, thyrotropin releasing hormone (TRH) and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) synthesis, as well as by modulating the structures of essential transcription factors involved in the synthesis of thyroid hormones. Serum concentrations of zinc also appear to influence the levels of serum T3, T4 and TSH. In addition, studies have shown that Zinc transporters (ZnTs) are present in the hypothalamus, pituitary and thyroid, but their functions remain unknown. Therefore, it is important to further investigate the roles of zinc in regulation of thyroid hormones metabolism, and their importance in the treatment of several diseases associated with thyroid gland dysfunction.

The Problem of Identifying and Modeling the Relationship between Monetary Factor and Inflation in the Russian Economy

2008 ◽  
pp. 61-76
Author(s):  
A. Porshakov ◽  
A. Ponomarenko
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Complex Approach ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Supply Side Factors

The role of monetary factor in generating inflationary processes in Russia has stimulated various debates in social and scientific circles for a relatively long time. The authors show that identification of the specificity of relationship between money and inflation requires a complex approach based on statistical modeling and involving a wide range of indicators relevant for the price changes in the economy. As a result a model of inflation for Russia implying the decomposition of inflation dynamics into demand-side and supply-side factors is suggested. The main conclusion drawn is that during the recent years the volume of inflationary pressures in the Russian economy has been determined by the deviation of money supply from money demand, rather than by money supply alone. At the same time, monetary factor has a long-run spread over time impact on inflation.

The Role of Technological Change in the Long-run Global Economy Forecasting

2013 ◽  
pp. 97-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Apokin
Keyword(s):  
Technological Change ◽  
Data Quality ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The World ◽  
National Economies

The author compares several quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting to find appropriate methods to incorporate technological change in long-range forecasts of the world economy. A?number of long-run forecasts (with horizons over 10 years) for the world economy and national economies is reviewed to outline advantages and drawbacks for different ways to account for technological change. Various approaches based on their sensitivity to data quality and robustness to model misspecifications are compared and recommendations are offered on the choice of appropriate technique in long-run forecasts of the world economy in the presence of technological change.

ROLE OF ADDED PHOSPHOGYPSUM AND HUMIC ACIDS IN THE KINETIC RELEASE OF SALT FROM SALT AFFECTED SOIL (SALINE – SODIC)

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-27
Keyword(s):  
Electrical Conductivity ◽  
Humic Acids ◽  
Release Rate ◽  
Release Kinetics ◽  
Sodium Adsorption Ratio ◽  
Salt Affected Soil ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Dissolved Ions ◽  
Kinetic Release

In order to study the effect of phosphogypsum and humic acids in the kinetic release of salt from salt-affected soil, a laboratory experiment was conducted in which columns made from solid polyethylene were 60.0 cm high and 7.1 cm in diameter. The columns were filled with soil so that the depth of the soil was 30 cm inside the column, the experiment included two factors, the first factor was phosphogypsum and was added at levels 0, 5, 10 and 15 tons ha-1 and the second-factor humic acids were added at levels 0, 50, 100 and 150 kg ha-1 by mixing them with the first 5 cm of column soil and one repeater per treatment. The continuous leaching method was used by using an electrolytic well water 2.72 dS m-1. Collect the leachate daily and continue the leaching process until the arrival of the electrical conductivity of the filtration of leaching up to 3-5 dS m-1. The electrical conductivity and the concentration of positive dissolved ions (Ca, Mg, Na) were estimated in leachate and the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) was calculated. The results showed that the best equation for describing release kinetics of the salts and sodium adsorption ratio in soil over time is the diffusion equation. Increasing the level of addition of phosphogypsum and humic acids increased the constant release velocity (K) of salts and the sodium adsorption ratio. The interaction between phosphogypsum and humic acids was also affected by the constant release velocity of salts and the sodium adsorption ratio. The constant release velocity (K) of the salts and the sodium adsorption ratio at any level of addition of phosphogypsum increased with the addition of humic acids. The highest salts release rate was 216.57 in PG3HA3, while the lowest rate was 149.48 in PG0HA0. The highest release rate of sodium adsorption ratio was 206.09 in PG3HA3, while the lowest rate was 117.23 in PG0HA0.

The Adult as Foe or Friend?: Childism in Guus Kuijer's Criticism and Fiction

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Joosen
Keyword(s):  
Children's Literature ◽  
Children’S Literature ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Children's Books ◽  
Children’S Books ◽  
Memorial Award ◽  
Adult Reader ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Selection Of

Compared to the attention that children's literature scholars have paid to the construction of childhood in children's literature and the role of adults as authors, mediators and readers of children's books, few researchers have made a systematic study of adults as characters in children's books. This article analyses the construction of adulthood in a selection of texts by the Dutch author and Astrid Lindgren Memorial Award winner Guus Kuijer and connects them with Elisabeth Young-Bruehl's recent concept of ‘childism’ – a form of prejudice targeted against children. Whereas Kuijer published a severe critique of adulthood in Het geminachte kind [The despised child] (1980), in his literary works he explores a variety of positions that adults can take towards children, with varying degrees of childist features. Such a systematic and comparative analysis of the way grown-ups are characterised in children's texts helps to shed light on a didactic potential that materialises in different adult subject positions. After all, not only literary and artistic aspects of children's literature may be aimed at the adult reader (as well as the child), but also the didactic aspect of children's books can cross over between different age groups.

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