Modeling control of foot and mouth disease with two time delays

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 1930001
Author(s):  
Kassahun M. Tessema ◽  
Faraimunashe Chirove ◽  
Precious Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Time Delays ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Prophylactic Vaccination ◽  
Reactive Vaccination

We develop a delay ordinary differential equation model that captures the effects of prophylactic vaccination, reactive vaccination, prophylactic treatment and reactive culling on the spread of foot and mouth disease (FMD) with time delays. Simulation results from the study suggest that increasing time delay while increasing the control strategies decreases the burden of FMD. Further, the results reveal, that decreasing time delay while decreasing the control strategies increases the burden of FMD. The intermediate scenarios of either (i) increasing time delay while decreasing control or (ii) decreasing time delay while increasing control have intermediate effects on burden reduction. Thus, the implementation of effective control strategies combination can play an important role in mitigating against the FMD burden.

scholarly journals Epidemiological and economic evaluation of foot-and-mouth disease control strategies in the Netherlands.

1989 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
A.A. Dijkhuizen
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Markov Chain Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Prophylactic Vaccination

A Markov chain model for a microcomputer is described in which the economic aspects of control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and pig herds can be examined. Epidemiologically, the most favourable results for the Netherlands were obtained using the current strategy: annual vaccination of cattle combined with slaughtering of affected herds and ring vaccination. However, it is suggested that annual costs could be reduced considerably by ceasing routine prophylactic vaccination, provided that adequate measures are taken when outbreaks occur. It is concluded that the increased risk of export bans, not yet included in this simulation model, is unlikely to outweigh the benefits of reducing annual direct costs. All pathways and control strategy, cost elements and default values included in the model are tabulated as are the probable epidemiology during an outbreak, secondary outbreaks, total direct economic losses per outbreak and per year, and a results sensitivity analysis. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

scholarly journals The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Marschik ◽  
Ian Kopacka ◽  
Simon Stockreiter ◽  
Friedrich Schmoll ◽  
Jörg Hiesel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Economic Point ◽  
Spread Model ◽  
Foot And Mouth

An outbreak of foot-and mouth disease (FMD) in an FMD-free country such as Austria would likely have serious consequences for the national livestock sector and economy. The objective of this study was to analyse the epidemiological and economic impact of an FMD outbreak in Austria in order to (i) evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures in two Austrian regions with different livestock structure and density, (ii) analyse the associated costs of the control measures and the losses resulting from trade restrictions on livestock and livestock products and (iii) assess the resources that would be required to control the FMD outbreak. The European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model (EuFMDiS) was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak. Based on the epidemiological outputs of the model, the economic impact of the outbreak was assessed. The analysis of the simulations showed that the success of control strategies depends largely on the type of control measures, the geographical location, the availability of sufficient resources, and the speed of intervention. The comparison of different control strategies suggested that from an economic point of view the implementation of additional control measures, such as pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds, would be efficient if the epidemic started in an area with high livestock density. Depending on the chosen control measures and the affected region, the majority of the total costs would be attributable to export losses (e.g., each day of an FMD epidemic costs Austria € 9–16 million). Our analysis indicated that the currently estimated resources for surveillance, cleaning, and disinfection during an FMD outbreak in Austria would be insufficient, which would lead to an extended epidemic control duration. We have shown that the control of an FMD outbreak can be improved by implementing a contingency strategy adapted to the affected region and by placing particular focus on an optimal resource allocation and rapid detection of the disease in Austria. The model results can assist veterinary authorities in planning resources and implementing cost-effective control measures for future outbreaks of highly contagious viral diseases.

scholarly journals Innate Immune Defenses Induced by CpG Do Not Promote Vaccine-Induced Protection against Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Pigs

2009 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. Alves ◽  
L. Guzylack-Piriou ◽  
V. Juillard ◽  
J.-C. Audonnet ◽  
T. Doel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Virus ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Innate Immune ◽  
Noticeable Effect ◽  
Mouth Disease Virus ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Natural Hosts

ABSTRACT Emergency vaccination as part of the control strategies against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has the potential to limit virus spread and reduce large-scale culling. To reduce the time between vaccination and the onset of immunity, immunostimulatory CpG was tested for its capacity to promote early protection against FMDV challenge in pigs. To this end, CpG 2142, an efficient inducer of alpha interferon, was injected intramuscularly. Increased transcription of Mx1, OAS, and IRF-7 was identified as a sensitive measurement of CpG-induced innate immunity, with increased levels detectable to at least 4 days after injection of CpG formulated with Emulsigen. Despite this, CpG combined with an FMD vaccine did not promote protection. Pigs vaccinated 2 days before challenge had disease development, which was at least as acute as that of unvaccinated controls. All pigs vaccinated 7 days before challenge were protected without a noticeable effect of CpG. In summary, our results demonstrate the caution required when translating findings from mouse models to natural hosts of FMDV.

scholarly journals Cell culture propagation of foot-and-mouth disease virus: adaptive amino acid substitutions in structural proteins and their functional implications

Virus Genes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika Dill ◽  
Michael Eschbaumer
Keyword(s):  
Cell Culture ◽  
Amino Acid ◽  
Field Isolate ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Rational Approach ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Adaptive Mutations ◽  
Mouth Disease Virus ◽  
Foot And Mouth

AbstractFoot-and-mouth disease is endemic in livestock in large parts of Africa and Asia, where it is an important driver of food insecurity and a major obstacle to agricultural development and the international trade in animal products. Virtually all commercially available vaccines are inactivated whole-virus vaccines produced in cell culture, but the adaptation of a field isolate of the virus to growth in culture is laborious and time-consuming. This is of particular concern for the development of vaccines to newly emerging virus lineages, where long lead times from virus isolate to vaccine can delay the implementation of effective control programs. High antigen yields in production cells are also necessary to make vaccines affordable for less developed countries in endemic areas. Therefore, a rational approach to cell culture adaptation that combines prior knowledge of common adaptive mutations and reverse genetics techniques is urgently required. This review provides an overview of amino acid exchanges in the viral capsid proteins in the context of adaptation to cell culture.

Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease: a model comparison study

2014 ◽  
Vol 143 (6) ◽  
pp. 1256-1275 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. E. ROCHE ◽  
M. G. GARNER ◽  
R. L. SANSON ◽  
C. COOK ◽  
C. BIRCH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Comparison ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Foot And Mouth

SUMMARYSimulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with ‘stamping-out’ of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the ‘stamping-out’ strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

scholarly journals Foot-and-Mouth Disease

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 465-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin J. Grubman ◽  
Barry Baxt
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Etiologic Agent ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Receptor Interactions ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Virus Replication Cycle ◽  
Disease Free

SUMMARY Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals. The disease was initially described in the 16th century and was the first animal pathogen identified as a virus. Recent FMD outbreaks in developed countries and their significant economic impact have increased the concern of governments worldwide. This review describes the reemergence of FMD in developed countries that had been disease free for many years and the effect that this has had on disease control strategies. The etiologic agent, FMD virus (FMDV), a member of the Picornaviridae family, is examined in detail at the genetic, structural, and biochemical levels and in terms of its antigenic diversity. The virus replication cycle, including virus-receptor interactions as well as unique aspects of virus translation and shutoff of host macromolecular synthesis, is discussed. This information has been the basis for the development of improved protocols to rapidly identify disease outbreaks, to differentiate vaccinated from infected animals, and to begin to identify and test novel vaccine candidates. Furthermore, this knowledge, coupled with the ability to manipulate FMDV genomes at the molecular level, has provided the framework for examination of disease pathogenesis and the development of a more complete understanding of the virus and host factors involved.

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