Exact Forecasting for COVID-19 Data: Case Study for Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150006
Author(s):  
Çiğdem Dinçkal
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
The Novel ◽  
A New Technique ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Short Time

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) with the first clinical case emerged in the city of Wuhan in China in December 2019. Then it has spread to the entire world in very short time and turned into a global problem, namely, it has rapidly become a pandemic. Within this context, many studies have attempted to predict the consequences of the pandemic in certain countries. Nevertheless, these studies have focused on some parameters such as reproductive number, recovery rate and mortality rate when performing forecasting. This study aims to forecast COVID-19 data in Turkey with use of a new technique which is a combination of classical exponential smoothing and moving average. There is no need for reproductive number, recovery rate and mortality rate computation in this proposed technique. Simulations are carried out for the number of daily cases, active cases (those are cases with no symptoms), daily tests, recovering patients, patients in the intensive care unit, daily intubated patients, and deaths forecasting and results are tested on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. It is shown that this technique captured the system dynamic behavior in Turkey and made exact predictions with the use of real time dataset.

scholarly journals Building Telemedicine Capacity for Trainees During the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: a Case Study and Lessons Learned

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 2675-2679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katharine Lawrence ◽  
Kathleen Hanley ◽  
Jennifer Adams ◽  
Daniel J Sartori ◽  
Richard Greene ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals The effects of the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation strategy of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjin Wang ◽  
Pei Wang ◽  
Shudao Zhang ◽  
Hao Pan
Keyword(s):  
Turning Point ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Start Date ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Motivated by the quick control in Wuhan, China, and the rapid spread in other countries of COVID-19, we investigate the questions that what is the turning point in Wuhan by quantifying the variety of basic reproductive number after the lockdown city. The answer may help the world to control the COVID-19 epidemic. A modified SEIR model is used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan city. Our model is calibrated by the hospitalized cases. The modeling result gives out that the means of basic reproductive numbers are 1.5517 (95% CI 1.1716-4.4283) for the period from Jan 25 to Feb 11, 2020, and 0.4738(95% CI 0.0997-0.8370) for the period from Feb 12 to Mar 10. The transmission rate fell after Feb 12, 2020 as a result of China’s COVID-19 strategy of keeping society distance and the medical support from all China, but principally because of the clinical symptoms to be used for the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) confirmation in Wuhan since Feb 12, 2020. Clinical diagnosis can quicken up NCP-confirmation such that the COVID-19 patients can be isolated without delay. So the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation is the turning point of the COVID-19 battle of Wuhan. The measure of clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation in Wuhan has delayed the growth and reduced size of the COVID-19 epidemic, decreased the peak number of the hospitalized cases by 96% in Wuhan. Our modeling also indicates that the earliest start date of COVID-19 in Wuhan may be Nov 2, 2019.

scholarly journals The Importance of Building Community Trust for Sustained Malaria Elimination Interventions During Unforeseen Major Disruptive Events Such as COVID-19: A Cambodia Case Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitra Feldman ◽  
Lieven Vernaeve ◽  
James Tibenderana ◽  
Leo Braack ◽  
Mark Debackere ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Malaria Elimination ◽  
The Novel ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Patients At Risk ◽  
Building Community ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
High Level ◽  
First Time

Abstract Background Impressive progress in reducing malaria trends combined with the 2018 report of no malaria related deaths for the first time, puts Cambodia well on track to reaching its malaria elimination goals. However, the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic presents a potential challenge to this goal. The path towards malaria elimination is dependent on sustained interventions to prevent rapid resurgence, which can quickly set back any gains achieved. Methods Mobile Malaria Workers (MMWs) need to have a strong understanding of the local geography and, most importantly, build and maintain trust among the communities they serve. To achieve this, Malaria Consortium uses a peer-to-peer approach for the MMWs and ensures the same level of trust operates between the MMWs and Malaria Consortium. Malaria Consortium’s policy during COVID-19 has been to follow national guidelines while continuing to support community-based malaria services via the MMWs / mobile malaria posts (MPs) with as minimal disruption as possible. A risk assessment was carried out by Malaria Consortium, with a mitigation plan quickly developed and implemented, to ensure MMWs were able to continue providing services without putting themselves or their patients at risk. Results Malaria Consortium ensured the MMW/ mobile MP program is built on trust, relevance to, and connection with the communities being served. An overall decline in malaria testing was reported from Health Centres and VMWs among all three provinces in March and April, not seen in previous years and possibly attributable to fear of COVID-19. However, Malaria Consortium supported MMWs have not reported any such decline in the utilization of their services and attribute this to the trust they have among the communities. Conclusion Malaria Consortium has effectively demonstrated care and solidarity with and among the MMWs and communities being served. This has ensured a high level of trust, and therefore willingness among the MMWs and communities to continue providing and utilising malaria services as usual despite the fear of COVID-19. Building trust among rural communities builds resilience and ensures uninterrupted and effective malaria elimination activities can continue even during a potential extraneous disruptive force, such as the Covid-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals The first two months of COVID-19 pandemic in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Single-center experience

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jurica Arapović ◽  
Siniša Skočibušić
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Single Center ◽  
Single Centre ◽  
Single Center Experience ◽  
Single Centre Experience ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The University

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still progressing and has been recorded in more than 210 countries and territories worldwide. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the first cases of COVID-19 were detected on 5th of March 2020 in the entity of Republic of Srpska and 9th of March 2020 in the entity of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Up until the 16th of May 2020, more than 2,200 COVID-19 cases were recorded in both entities, with a mortality rate of 5.8% (131 out of 2231 cases). The aim of this ongoing study is to present the current epidemiological and sociodemographic parameters of 380 COVID-19 patients diagnosed at the University Clinical Hospital Mostar (UCH Mostar) during the first two months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Out of 380 patients, 60 (15.8%) of them required hospitalization. The mortality rate was 5% (19/380). The highest mortality rate of 15.2% (12/79) was recorded in the patients age ≥65 years. In addition to this single-centre experience of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the epidemiological measures imposed in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with emphasis on the restrictive ones. The COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

scholarly journals Anticoronavirus and Immunomodulatory Phenolic Compounds: Opportunities and Pharmacotherapeutic Perspectives

Biomolecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1254
Author(s):  
Naiara Naiana Dejani ◽  
Hatem A. Elshabrawy ◽  
Carlos da Silva Maia Bezerra Filho ◽  
Damião Pergentino de Sousa
Keyword(s):  
Phenolic Compounds ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Immune Responses ◽  
Therapeutic Strategy ◽  
Kidney Diseases ◽  
Pharmacological Properties ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Dual Action ◽  
Natural Phenolic Compounds ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In 2019, COVID-19 emerged as a severe respiratory disease that is caused by the novel coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease has been associated with high mortality rate, especially in patients with comorbidities such as diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney diseases. This could be attributed to dysregulated immune responses and severe systemic inflammation in COVID-19 patients. The use of effective antiviral drugs against SARS-CoV-2 and modulation of the immune responses could be a potential therapeutic strategy for COVID-19. Studies have shown that natural phenolic compounds have several pharmacological properties, including anticoronavirus and immunomodulatory activities. Therefore, this review discusses the dual action of these natural products from the perspective of applicability at COVID-19.

scholarly journals Potential Interaction Between SARS-CoV-2 and Thyroid: A Review

Endocrinology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 162 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjie Chen ◽  
Yuang Tian ◽  
Zhihui Li ◽  
Jingqiang Zhu ◽  
Tao Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Potential Interaction ◽  
Thyroid Diseases ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Short Time ◽  
And Control ◽  
First Time

Abstract The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) produced by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is sweeping the world in a very short time. Although much has been learned about the clinical course, prognostic inflammatory markers, and disease complications of COVID-19, the potential interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and the thyroid is poorly understood. In contrast to SARS-CoV-1, limited available evidence indicates there is no pathological evidence of thyroid injury caused by SARS-CoV-2. However, subacute thyroiditis caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been reported for the first time. Thyroid dysfunction is common in patients with COVID-19 infection. By contrast, certain thyroid diseases may have a negative impact on the prevention and control of COVID-19. In addition, some anti–COVID-19 agents may cause thyroid injury or affect its metabolism. COVID-19 and thyroid disease may mutually aggravate the disease burden. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection should not ignore the effect on thyroid function, especially when there are obvious related symptoms. In addition, patients with thyroid diseases should follow specific management principles during the epidemic period.

scholarly journals When Second Best Might be the Best: Using Hospitalization Data to Monitor the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J Mallow ◽  
Michael Jones
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Hospital Utilization ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Ideal Solution ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Hospital Administrators ◽  
Utilization Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Ideal

The novel coronavirus' high rate of asymptomatic transmission combined with a lack of testing kits call for a different approach to monitor its spread and severity. We proposed the use of hospitalizations and hospital utilization data to monitor the spread and severity. A proposed threshold of a declining 7-day moving average over a 14-day period, "7&14" was set to communicate when a wave of the novel coronavirus may have passed. The state of Ohio was chosen to illustrate this threshold. While not the ideal solution for monitoring the spread of the epidemic, the proposed approach is an easy to implement framework accounting for limitations of the data inherent in the current epidemic. Hospital administrators and policy makers may benefit from incorporating this approach into their decision making.

scholarly journals Downfalls of Chemical Probes Acting at the Kinase ATP-Site: CK2 as a Case Study

Molecules ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 1977
Author(s):  
Eleanor L. Atkinson ◽  
Jessica Iegre ◽  
Paul D. Brear ◽  
Elizabeth A. Zhabina ◽  
Marko Hyvönen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Protein Kinases ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Chemical Probes ◽  
Alternative Strategies ◽  
Competitive Inhibitors ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Selective Chemical ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Kinase Ck2

Protein kinases are a large class of enzymes with numerous biological roles and many have been implicated in a vast array of diseases, including cancer and the novel coronavirus infection COVID-19. Thus, the development of chemical probes to selectively target each kinase is of great interest. Inhibition of protein kinases with ATP-competitive inhibitors has historically been the most widely used method. However, due to the highly conserved structures of ATP-sites, the identification of truly selective chemical probes is challenging. In this review, we use the Ser/Thr kinase CK2 as an example to highlight the historical challenges in effective and selective chemical probe development, alongside recent advances in the field and alternative strategies aiming to overcome these problems. The methods utilised for CK2 can be applied to an array of protein kinases to aid in the discovery of chemical probes to further understand each kinase’s biology, with wide-reaching implications for drug development.

scholarly journals A fractional complex network model for novel corona virus in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. A. A. El-Saka ◽  
I. Obaya ◽  
H. N. Agiza
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Complex Network ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Zoonotic Virus ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Varying Population

AbstractAs is well known the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is a zoonotic virus and our model is concerned with the effect of the zoonotic source of the coronavirus during the outbreak in China. We present a SEIS complex network epidemic model for the novel coronavirus. Our model is presented in fractional form and with varying population. The steady states and the basic reproductive number are calculated. We also present some numerical examples and the sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number for the parameters.

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