scholarly journals Forecasting Dry Bulk Freight Index with Improved SVM

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianqian Han ◽  
Bo Yan ◽  
Guobao Ning ◽  
B. Yu

An improved SVM model is presented to forecast dry bulk freight index (BDI) in this paper, which is a powerful tool for operators and investors to manage the market trend and avoid price risking shipping industry. The BDI is influenced by many factors, especially the random incidents in dry bulk market, inducing the difficulty in forecasting of BDI. Therefore, to eliminate the impact of random incidents in dry bulk market, wavelet transform is adopted to denoise the BDI data series. Hence, the combined model of wavelet transform and support vector machine is developed to forecast BDI in this paper. Lastly, the BDI data in 2005 to 2012 are presented to test the proposed model. The 84 prior consecutive monthly BDI data are the inputs of the model, and the last 12 monthly BDI data are the outputs of model. The parameters of the model are optimized by genetic algorithm and the final model is conformed through SVM training. This paper compares the forecasting result of proposed method and three other forecasting methods. The result shows that the proposed method has higher accuracy and could be used to forecast the short-term trend of the BDI.

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 398-406
Author(s):  
Ani Shabri ◽  
Mohd Fahmi Abdul Hamid

This study examines the feasibility of applying Wavelet-Support Vector Machine (W-SVM) model in forecasting palm oil price. The conjunction method wavelet-support vector machine (W-SVM) is obtained by the integration of discrete wavelet transform (DWT) method and support vector machine (SVM). In W-SVM model, wavelet transform is used to decompose data series into two parts; approximation series and details series. This decomposed series were then used as the input to the SVM model to forecast the palm oil price. This study also utilizes the application of partial correlation-based input variable selection as the preprocessing steps in determining the best input to the model. The performance of the W-SVM model was then compared with the classical SVM model and also artificial neural network (ANN) model. The empirical result shows that the addition of wavelet technique in W-SVM model enhances the forecasting performance of classical SVM and performs better than ANN.


2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (23) ◽  
pp. 4922-4929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhao-Chun Xu ◽  
Peng-Mian Feng ◽  
Hui Yang ◽  
Wang-Ren Qiu ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
...  

Abstract Motivation Dihydrouridine (D) is a common RNA post-transcriptional modification found in eukaryotes, bacteria and a few archaea. The modification can promote the conformational flexibility of individual nucleotide bases. And its levels are increased in cancerous tissues. Therefore, it is necessary to detect D in RNA for further understanding its functional roles. Since wet-experimental techniques for the aim are time-consuming and laborious, it is urgent to develop computational models to identify D modification sites in RNA. Results We constructed a predictor, called iRNAD, for identifying D modification sites in RNA sequence. In this predictor, the RNA samples derived from five species were encoded by nucleotide chemical property and nucleotide density. Support vector machine was utilized to perform the classification. The final model could produce the overall accuracy of 96.18% with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9839 in jackknife cross-validation test. Furthermore, we performed a series of validations from several aspects and demonstrated the robustness and reliability of the proposed model. Availability and implementation A user-friendly web-server called iRNAD can be freely accessible at http://lin-group.cn/server/iRNAD, which will provide convenience and guide to users for further studying D modification.


Algorithms ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Yuchuang Wang ◽  
Guoyou Shi ◽  
Xiaotong Sun

Container ships must pass through multiple ports of call during a voyage. Therefore, forecasting container volume information at the port of origin followed by sending such information to subsequent ports is crucial for container terminal management and container stowage personnel. Numerous factors influence container allocation to container ships for a voyage, and the degree of influence varies, engendering a complex nonlinearity. Therefore, this paper proposes a model based on gray relational analysis (GRA) and mixed kernel support vector machine (SVM) for predicting container allocation to a container ship for a voyage. First, in this model, the weights of influencing factors are determined through GRA. Then, the weighted factors serve as the input of the SVM model, and SVM model parameters are optimized through a genetic algorithm. Numerical simulations revealed that the proposed model could effectively predict the number of containers for container ship voyage and that it exhibited strong generalization ability and high accuracy. Accordingly, this model provides a new method for predicting container volume for a voyage.


2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 973-988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Li Li ◽  
Haishen Lü ◽  
Robert Horton ◽  
Tianqing An ◽  
Zhongbo Yu

An accurate and real-time flood forecast is a crucial nonstructural step to flood mitigation. A support vector machine (SVM) is based on the principle of structural risk minimization and has a good generalization capability. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a proven method with the capability of handling nonlinearity in a computationally efficient manner. In this paper, a type of SVM model is established to simulate the rainfall–runoff (RR) process. Then, a coupling model of SVM and EnKF (SVM + EnKF) is used for RR simulation. The impact of the assimilation time scale on the SVM + EnKF model is also studied. A total of four different combinations of the SVM and EnKF models are studied in the paper. The Xinanjiang RR model is employed to evaluate the SVM and the SVM + EnKF models. The study area is located in the Luo River Basin, Guangdong Province, China, during a nine-year period from 1994 to 2002. Compared to SVM, the SVM + EnKF model substantially improves the accuracy of flood prediction, and the Xinanjiang RR model also performs better than the SVM model. The simulated result for the assimilation time scale of 5 days is better than the results for the other cases.


2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (03) ◽  
pp. 1750010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ze Liu ◽  
Hongqiang Lv ◽  
Jiuqiang Han ◽  
Ruiling Liu

Transmembrane region (TR) is a conserved region of transmembrane (TM) subunit in envelope (env) glycoprotein of retrovirus. Evidences have shown that TR is responsible for anchoring the env glycoprotein on the lipid bilayer and substitution of the TR for a covalently linked lipid anchor abrogates fusion. However, universal software could not achieve sufficient accuracy as TM in env also has several motifs such as signal peptide, fusion peptide and immunosuppressive domain composed largely of hydrophobic residues. In this paper, a support vector machine-based (SVM) model is proposed to identify TRs in retroviruses. Firstly, physicochemical and evolutionary information properties were extracted as original features. And then, the feature importance was analyzed by minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (mRMR) feature selection criterion. Our model achieved an Sn of 0.955, Sp of 0.998, ACC of 0.995, MCC of 0.954 using 10-fold cross-validation on the training dataset. These results suggest that the proposed model can be used to predict TRs in non-annotation retroviruses and 11917, 3344, 2, 289 and 6 new putative TRs were found in HERV, HIV, HTLV, SIV, MLV, respectively.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Sun ◽  
Xianda Feng ◽  
Lingqiang Yang

Tunnel squeezing is one of the major geological disasters that often occur during the construction of tunnels in weak rock masses subjected to high in situ stresses. It could cause shield jamming, budget overruns, and construction delays and could even lead to tunnel instability and casualties. Therefore, accurate prediction or identification of tunnel squeezing is extremely important in the design and construction of tunnels. This study presents a modified application of a multiclass support vector machine (SVM) to predict tunnel squeezing based on four parameters, that is, diameter (D), buried depth (H), support stiffness (K), and rock tunneling quality index (Q). We compiled a database from the literature, including 117 case histories obtained from different countries such as India, Nepal, and Bhutan, to train the multiclass SVM model. The proposed model was validated using 8-fold cross validation, and the average error percentage was approximately 11.87%. Compared with existing approaches, the proposed multiclass SVM model yields a better performance in predictive accuracy. More importantly, one could estimate the severity of potential squeezing problems based on the predicted squeezing categories/classes.


2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 267-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Han ◽  
L. Chan ◽  
N. Zhu

This paper describes an application of SVM over the Bird Creek catchment and addresses some important issues in developing and applying SVM in flood forecasting. It has been found that, like artificial neural network models, SVM also suffers from over-fitting and under-fitting problems and the over-fitting is more damaging than under-fitting. This paper illustrates that an optimum selection among a large number of various input combinations and parameters is a real challenge for any modellers in using SVMs. A comparison with some benchmarking models has been made, i.e. Transfer Function, Trend and Naive models. It demonstrates that SVM is able to surpass all of them in the test data series, at the expense of a huge amount of time and effort. Unlike previous published results, this paper shows that linear and nonlinear kernel functions (i.e. RBF) can yield superior performances against each other under different circumstances in the same catchment. The study also shows an interesting result in the SVM response to different rainfall inputs, where lighter rainfalls would generate very different responses to heavier ones, which is a very useful way to reveal the behaviour of a SVM model.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
S. R. Mani Sekhar ◽  
Siddesh G. M. ◽  
Sunilkumar S. Manvi

Identification and analysis of protein play a vital role in drug design and disease prediction. There are several open-source applications that have been developed for identifying essential proteins which are based on biological or topological features. These techniques infer the possibility of proteins to be essential by using the network topology and feature selection, which can ignore some of the features to reduce the complexity and, subsequently, results in less accuracy. In the paper, the authors have used selenium driver to scrap the dataset. Later, the authors integrated the chi-square method with support vector machine for the prediction of essential proteins in baker yeast. Here, chi-square is a test of dissimilarity used for altering the record, and afterward, the support vector machine is used to classify the test dataset. The results show that the proposed model Chi-SVM model achieves an accuracy of 99.56%, whereas BC and CC achieved an accuracy of 84.0% and 86.0%. Finally, the proposed model is validated using Statistical performance measures such as PPA, NPA, SA, and STA.


Author(s):  
Allan Fong ◽  
Nicholas Scoulios ◽  
H. Joseph Blumenthal ◽  
Ryan E. Anderson

Abstract Background and Objective The prevalence of value-based payment models has led to an increased use of the electronic health record to capture quality measures, necessitating additional documentation requirements for providers. Methods This case study uses text mining and natural language processing techniques to identify the timely completion of diabetic eye exams (DEEs) from 26,203 unique clinician notes for reporting as an electronic clinical quality measure (eCQM). Logistic regression and support vector machine (SVM) using unbalanced and balanced datasets, using the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) algorithm, were evaluated on precision, recall, sensitivity, and f1-score for classifying records positive for DEE. We then integrate a high precision DEE model to evaluate free-text clinical narratives from our clinical EHR system. Results Logistic regression and SVM models had comparable f1-score and specificity metrics with models trained and validated with no oversampling favoring precision over recall. SVM with and without oversampling resulted in the best precision, 0.96, and recall, 0.85, respectively. These two SVM models were applied to the unannotated 31,585 text segments representing 24,823 unique records and 13,714 unique patients. The number of records classified as positive for DEE using the SVM models ranged from 667 to 8,935 (2.7–36% out of 24,823, respectively). Unique patients classified as positive for DEE ranged from 3.5 to 41.8% highlighting the potential utility of these models. Discussion We believe the impact of oversampling on SVM model performance to be caused by the potential of overfitting of the SVM SMOTE model on the synthesized data and the data synthesis process. However, the specificities of SVM with and without SMOTE were comparable, suggesting both models were confident in their negative predictions. By prioritizing to implement the SVM model with higher precision over sensitivity or recall in the categorization of DEEs, we can provide a highly reliable pool of results that can be documented through automation, reducing the burden of secondary review. Although the focus of this work was on completed DEEs, this method could be applied to completing other necessary documentation by extracting information from natural language in clinician notes. Conclusion By enabling the capture of data for eCQMs from documentation generated by usual clinical practice, this work represents a case study in how such techniques can be leveraged to drive quality without increasing clinician work.


2013 ◽  
Vol 380-384 ◽  
pp. 4757-4761
Author(s):  
Tang Yang ◽  
Li Cui Xia

This paper uses support vector machine to research on livestock production prediction in heilongjiang province. Use SVM on the input and output data for training and learning, approximate the implied function relationship by historical data, complete the mapping of the new data series, in order to complete the livestock production prediction for future years, and compare the prediction effects with other methods. From the results we can see that, the prediction accuracy of livestock production of the SVM model is superior to other prediction methods.


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