scholarly journals Modelling study to quantify the impact of future climate and land use changes on water resources availability at catchment scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Nikolaos Vavlas ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Past ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The focus of this study was to investigate the impact of climate and land-use changes on water resources and to find suitable drought indices to identify the occurrence, frequency and severity of the past and future drought events. The Ebbw catchment, Wales, UK was selected for this study. Data for the 1961–2012 period were used as input to the DiCaSM model. Following model calibration and validation, the model was run with UKCP09 future climate scenarios for three periods (30 years each) up to 2099 under three emission scenarios. The reconnaissance drought index, the standardized precipitation index, soil moisture deficit and the wetness index were able to reproduce the past drought events. The data of UKCP09, simple change factors to temperature (± °C) and rainfall (%) using Joint Probability plot and daily values of the weather generator were input to the model. The projections indicated that the streamflow and groundwater recharge are likely to increase in winter and to decrease in spring, summer and autumn. Under all emission scenarios, the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and the streamflow is projected in the 2050s and 2080s under high emission scenario. Moreover, under medium and high emission scenarios, severity and frequency of the drought events are likely to be high. Land use change from grass and/or arable to woodland had significant impact on water resources.

scholarly journals Drought Risk under Climate and Land Use Changes: Implication to Water Resource Availability at Catchment Scale

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1790 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
Ragab Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
High Emission ◽  
The Impact

Although the climate change projections are produced by global models, studying the impact of climatic change on water resources is commonly investigated at catchment scale where the measurements are taken, and water management decisions are made. For this study, the Frome catchment in the UK was investigated as an example of midland England. The DiCaSM model was applied using the UKCP09 future climate change scenarios. The climate projections indicate that the greatest decrease in groundwater recharge and streamflow was projected under high emission scenarios in the 2080s. Under the medium and high emission scenarios, model results revealed that the frequency and severity of drought events would be the highest. The drought indices, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and Wetness Index, WI, predicted an increase in the severity of future drought events under the high emission scenarios. Increasing broadleaf forest area would decrease streamflow and groundwater recharge. Urban expansion could increase surface runoff. Decreasing winter barley and grass and increasing oil seed rape, would increase SMD and slightly decrease river flow. Findings of this study are helpful in the planning and management of the water resources considering the impact of climate and land use changes on variability in the availability of surface and groundwater resources.

scholarly journals Evaluating and Predicting the Effects of Land Use Changes on Hydrology in Wami River Basin, Tanzania

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sekela Twisa ◽  
Shija Kazumba ◽  
Mathew Kurian ◽  
Manfred F. Buchroithner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
River System ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Natural Forests ◽  
The Impact

Understanding the variation in the hydrological response of a basin associated with land use changes is essential for developing management strategies for water resources. The impact of hydrological changes caused by expected land use changes may be severe for the Wami river system, given its role as a crucial area for water, providing food and livelihoods. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of land use changes on various elements of the hydrological processes of the basin. Hybrid classification, which includes unsupervised and supervised classification techniques, is used to process the images (2000 and 2016), while CA–Markov chain analysis is used to forecast and simulate the 2032 land use state. In the current study, a combined approach—including a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)—is used to explore the influences of individual land use classes on fluctuations in the hydrological components. From the study, it is evident that land use has changed across the basin since 2000 (which is expected to continue in 2032), as well as that the hydrological effects caused by land use changes were observed. It has been found that the major land use changes that affected hydrology components in the basin were expansion of cultivation land, built-up area and grassland, and decline in natural forests and woodland during the study period. These findings provide baseline information for decision-makers and stakeholders concerning land and water resources for better planning and management decisions in the basin resources’ use.

scholarly journals Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuo Li ◽  
Jie Pan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

scholarly journals Impacts of land use changes and climate variability on transboundary Hirmand River using SWAT

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1695-1711 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Hajihosseini ◽  
Hamidreza Hajihosseini ◽  
Saeed Morid ◽  
Majid Delavar ◽  
Martijn J. Booij
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Irrigated Area ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Annual Discharge

Abstract Many river basins are facing a reduction of flows which might be attributed to changes in climate and human activities. This issue is very important in transboundary river basins, where already existing conflicts about shared water resources between riparian countries can easily escalate. The decrease of streamflow in the transboundary Hirmand (Helmand) River is one of the main challenges for water resources management in Iran and Afghanistan. This research aims to quantify the causes of this problem which has a direct impact on the dryness of the Hamoun wetlands being an international Ramsar site. To achieve this, the land use changes in the Middle Helmand Basin (MHB) in Afghanistan were evaluated for three time periods between 1990 and 2011 using remote sensing data and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model for understanding watershed response to environmental changes. It was concluded that the total irrigated area in the region has increased from 103,000 ha in 1990 to 122,000 ha in 2001 and 167,000 ha in 2011 (62% increase). According to the results, the average annual discharge when adapting the land use during the simulations was 4,787 million cubic meters (MCM)/year and while employing the land use of 1990 from the beginning of the simulations, the average annual discharge was 5,133 MCM/year. Therefore, the agricultural developments in the Helmand basin decreased the discharge with about 346 MCM/year accompanying an increase of 64,000 ha in an irrigated area in MHB after 1990. Notably, the impact of land use change increases significantly for more recent periods and causes a reduction of 810 MCM in annual streamflow for the MHB. The amount of water depletion (i.e. actual evapotranspiration) per hectare has increased from 5,690 in 1985 to 7,320 m3 in 2012. The applied methodology of this study is useful to cope with such a data scarcity region. It can help quantify the impact of land use change on the region and formulates strategies that can improve the situation between Iran and Afghanistan.

scholarly journals An Attempt to Decompose the Impact of Land Use and Climate Change on Annual Runoff in a Small Agricultural Catchment

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 881-896
Author(s):  
Adam Krajewski ◽  
Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner ◽  
Leszek Hejduk ◽  
Kazimierz Banasik
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Land Use History ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analytical Approaches ◽  
Observation Period

AbstractThe aims of this study are: i) to better understand the coupled interactions between land use changes, climate change and the aquatic ecosystem in a small agricultural catchment (<100 km2) with a long observation history (1963–2018) and a known land use history, and ii) to test available approaches to separate land use and climate change impacts on water resources in such a small catchment. The pre- and post-change periods have been separated based on change points and the known land use history. Next, conceptual and analytical approaches were applied to quantify and to distinguish between the impacts of climate and land use changes on annual runoff for these two periods. Over the observation period, both land use changes (increase in forest areas) as well as climate change (a temperature rise and a decrease in annual precipitation) occurred. These changes contributed to a decrease in the average annual runoff by 51.9 mm (49% of the long-term average) during the observation period. The quantified contributions of climate and land use changes to the decrease in the mean annual runoff amount to between 60% and 80% and between 40% and 20%, respectively. (i) The results obtained from different methods were consistent - a change in runoff was primarily caused by shifts in climatic variables. (ii) However, the quantified contributions varied depending on the method applied and the form of the Budyko curve. (iii) Thus, special care should be taken in relation to the selection of the Budyko curve for quantifying these changes. (iv) Knowledge of the water deficit sources can result in better planning of water resources management in such small catchments.

scholarly journals Implications of Land Use Change on River Flow in South West England

10.29007/75p2 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorena Liuzzo ◽  
Gabriele Freni
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
South West ◽  
The Impact ◽  
South West England

Assessing the impacts of future changes in land use on the hydrological cycle is an important issue for the proper management of water resources, since land use changes have implications on both water quantity and quality. Land use changes, in particular the expansion of urban areas, can significantly affect river flow increasing flood risk, whereas, the development of woodland areas could have positive effects on the reduction of peak flow. The present study has been carried out to assess and quantify the impact of land use changes on the water resources of a river basin located in South West England. With this aim, a hydrological model has been applied to some land use scenarios. In particular, two scenarios have been investigated: the first includes the increase of agricultural areas and the decrease of woodlands, the second includes the increase of urban areas and the decrease of woodlands. Results showed that, in the area of study, river flow would likely to be affected by future land use changes, mainly in the case of urban areas increase.

scholarly journals Pengelolaan Lahan Alternatif Untuk Konservasi Sumberdaya Air Di Das Batugantung, Kota Ambon

Agrologia ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Agustinus Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Fresh Water ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Land Use Management ◽  
Vegetation Density ◽  
The Impact

Land degradation on the upper stream area in Ambon island has reduced the availability of fresh water for the peoples. An available fresh water supports only 19.14% of total population.  This research was carried out to solve the problem of water resources shortage in Ambon city which is sourced from Batugantung.  The objectives of this research were to evaluate the impact of land use changes on the income, hydrological characteristics, erosion and sedimentation in Batugantung watershed. The result of this research showed that the increasing density and coverage of vegetation can increase the sustainability of land and water resources.  The increasing vegetation density in agroforestry land use can imitate the role of forest in sustaining watershed hydrological function, decreasing runoff, controlling erosion as well as  increasing farmer’s  income.  By keeping  at least 30% forest in dusun land use management in  Batugantung watershed, it can sustain water yield about 75.66 liters.s-1, decrease erosion to 27.62 ton.year-1, and increase farmers income up to Rp. 15.64 million ha-1.year-1.   By applying  the result of this research to other watersheds in Ambon island, the availability water resources will be about 13.07 x 105 m3.day-1. This amount of water resources can fulfill present total requirement of fresh water for  380 thousand peoples in Ambon island which is only  6.08 x 104  m3.day-1.

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