Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism

2012 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan C. Price
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Organizational Characteristics ◽  
Leadership Succession ◽  
Scholarly Work ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Leadership Decapitation

Several states, including Israel and the United States, have put decapitation tactics, which seek to kill or capture leaders of terrorist organizations, at the forefront of their counterterrorism efforts. The vast majority of scholarly work on decapitation suggests, however, that leadership decapitation is ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst. Contrary to this conventional wisdom, leadership decapitation significantly increases the mortality rate of terrorist groups, although the results indicate that the effect of decapitation decreases with the age of the group, even to a point where it may have no effect at all. This finding helps to explain the previously perplexing mixed record of decapitation effectiveness. Terrorist groups are especially susceptible to leadership decapitation because their organizational characteristics (they are violent, clandestine, and values based) amplify the difficulties of leadership succession. Additionally, in contrast to the conventional wisdom regarding the durability of terrorist groups, politically relevant terrorist groups (defined as those with at least four attacks including one attack resulting in a fatality) endure significantly longer than previously believed.

The Future of FBI Counterintelligence through the Lens of the Past Hundred Years

2010 ◽  
pp. 504-517
Author(s):  
Raymond J. Batvinis
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Federal Bureau ◽  
The Past ◽  
Intelligence Services ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Foreign Intelligence ◽  
Key Events ◽  
The U.S

Counterintelligence is the business of identifying and dealing with foreign intelligence threats to a nation, such as the United States. Its main concern is the intelligence services of foreign states and similar organizations of non-state actors, such as transnational terrorist groups. Counterintelligence functions both as a defensive measure that protects the nation's secrets and assets against foreign intelligence penetration and as an offensive measure to find out what foreign intelligence organizations are planning to defeat better their aim. This article addresses the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) foreign counterintelligence function. It briefly traces its evolution by examining the key events and the issues that effected its growth as the principle civilian counterintelligence service of the U.S. government.

Championing Child Care. By Sally S. Cohen. New York: Columbia University Press, 2001. 397p. $52.50 cloth, $26.00 paper.

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (4) ◽  
pp. 822-823
Author(s):  
Joyce Gelb
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Child Care ◽  
The United States ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Welfare States ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Columbia University ◽  
Child Care Policy ◽  
Care Policy

Sally Cohen has written an important and comprehensive analysis of child-care policy in the United States, challenging the conventional wisdom that no such federal policy exists and that child care is not a major government priority, in contrast to other democratic welfare states (e.g., the Scandinavian countries and France).

Warning against long-acting sulphonamides

1966 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 13-13
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Erythema Multiforme ◽  
The United States ◽  
Stevens Johnson Syndrome ◽  
Warning Letter ◽  
Johnson Syndrome ◽  
The Us ◽  
Mucous Membranes ◽  
Long Acting

Last month the US Food and Drug Administration required American manufacturers of long-acting sulphonamides (sulphamethoxypyridazine, Lederkyn - Lederle and Midicel - PD; sulphadimethoxine - Madribon - Roche) to warn prescribers that in rare cases the Stevens-Johnson syndrome may develop as a severe and sometimes fatal side effect. This syndrome is a type of erythema multiforme in which large blisters appear on the skin and especially on the mucous membranes. The manufacturers were also to advise doctors ‘to consider prescribing short-acting sulphonamides first because they are effective for most of the same conditions’. The three drug firms concerned accordingly sent a joint warning letter to all doctors, pointing out that the Stevens-Johnson syndrome is a serious complication with a mortality rate of about 25%. So far 116 cases of this syndrome have been reported in association with the use of long-acting sulphonamides, most of them in the United States. Almost two thirds of the patients were children.

Waiting for Balancing: Why the World Is Not Pushing Back

2005 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keir A. Lieber ◽  
Gerard Alexander
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
The United States ◽  
Grand Strategy ◽  
War On Terrorism ◽  
Much Ado About Nothing ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
Soft Balancing ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Invasion Of Iraq

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many observers predicted a rise in balancing against the United States. More recently, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 has generated renewed warnings of an incipient global backlash. Indeed, some analysts claim that signs of traditional hard balancing can already be detected, while others argue that in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, U.S. grand strategy has generated a new phenomenon known as soft balancing, in which states seek to undermine and restrain U.S. power in ways that fall short of classic measures. There is little credible evidence, however, that major powers are engaging in either hard or soft balancing against the United States. The absence of hard balancing is explained by the lack of underlying motivation to compete strategically with the United States under current conditions. Soft balancing is much ado about nothing: the concept is difficult to define or operationalize; the behavior seems identical to traditional diplomatic friction; and, regardless, specific predictions of soft balancing are not supported by the evidence. Balancing against the United States is not occurring because contemporary U.S. grand strategy, despite widespread criticism, poses a threat to only a very limited number of regimes and terrorist groups. Most countries either share U.S. strategic interests in the war on terrorism or do not have a direct stake in the confict. As such, balancing behavior is likely only among a narrowly circumscribed list of states and actors being targeted by the United States.

scholarly journals Epidemiology and Factors Affecting Mortality of Hospitalized Patients with Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation in the United States

Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 2404-2404
Author(s):  
Arya Mariam Roy ◽  
Manojna Konda ◽  
Akshay Goel ◽  
Appalanaidu Sasapu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Native Americans ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hospitalized Patients ◽  
Northeast Region ◽  
Intravascular Coagulation

Introduction Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (DIC) is a systemic coagulopathy which leads to widespread thrombosis and hemorrhage and ultimately results in multiorgan dysfunction. DIC usually occurs as a complication of illnesses like severe sepsis, malignancies, trauma, acute pancreatitis, burns, and obstetrical complications. The prognosis and mortality of DIC depend on the etiology, however, the mortality of DIC is known to be on the higher side. The aim of the study is to analyze if gender, race, regional differences have any association with the mortality of hospitalized patients with DIC. Method The National Inpatient Sample database from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) for the year 2016 was queried for data. We identified hospital admissions for DIC with the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis code D65. The data was analyzed with STATA 16.0 version and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed. We studied the characteristics of all such hospitalizations for the year 2016 and the factors associated with the in-hospital mortality rate (MR) of DIC. We used length of stay, cost of stay as an outcome to determine if gender, race, and location play a role in the mortality. Results A total of 8704 admissions were identified with a diagnosis of DIC during the year 2016. The mean age for admission was found to be 56.48± 0.22. The percentage of admissions in females and males did not have a notable difference (50.57% vs 49.43%). The disease specific MR for DIC was 47.7%. Admission during weekend vs weekdays did not carry a statistically significant difference in terms of MR. Females with DIC were less likely to die in the hospital when compared to males with DIC (OR= 0.906, CI 0.82 - 0.99, p= 0.031). Interestingly, African Americans (AA) with DIC admissions were found to have 24% more risk of dying when compared to Caucasians admitted with DIC (OR= 1.24, CI 1.10 - 1.39, P= 0.00), Native Americans (NA) has 67% more risk of dying when compared to Caucasians (OR= 1.67, CI 1.03 - 2.69, p= 0.035). The mortality rate of NA, AA, Caucasians with DIC was found to be 57%, 52%, 47% respectively. The MR was found to be highest in hospitals of the northeast region (52%), then hospitals in the south (47%), followed by west and mid-west (46%), p= 0.000. Patients admitted to west and mid-west were 24% less likely to die when compared to patients admitted to northeast region hospitals (OR= 0.76, p= 0.001). The average length of stay and cost of stay were also less in west and mid-west regions when compared to north east. The difference in outcomes persisted after adjusting for age, gender, race, hospital division, co-morbid conditions. Conclusion Our study demonstrated that African Americans and Native Americans with DIC have high risk of dying in the hospital. Also, there exists a difference between the mortality rate, length and cost of stay among different regions in the United States. More research is needed to elucidate the factors that might be impacting the location-based variation in mortality. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

scholarly journals Using Satellite Images and Deep Learning to Identify Associations Between County-Level Mortality and Residential Neighborhood Features Proximal to Schools: A Cross-Sectional Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua J. Levy ◽  
Rebecca M. Lebeaux ◽  
Anne G. Hoen ◽  
Brock C. Christensen ◽  
Louis J. Vaickus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Satellite Images ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Image Features ◽  
County Level ◽  
Crude Mortality Rate ◽  
Crude Mortality

What is the relationship between mortality and satellite images as elucidated through the use of Convolutional Neural Networks?Background: Following a century of increase, life expectancy in the United States has stagnated and begun to decline in recent decades. Using satellite images and street view images, prior work has demonstrated associations of the built environment with income, education, access to care, and health factors such as obesity. However, assessment of learned image feature relationships with variation in crude mortality rate across the United States has been lacking.Objective: We sought to investigate if county-level mortality rates in the U.S. could be predicted from satellite images.Methods: Satellite images of neighborhoods surrounding schools were extracted with the Google Static Maps application programming interface for 430 counties representing ~68.9% of the US population. A convolutional neural network was trained using crude mortality rates for each county in 2015 to predict mortality. Learned image features were interpreted using Shapley Additive Feature Explanations, clustered, and compared to mortality and its associated covariate predictors.Results: Predicted mortality from satellite images in a held-out test set of counties was strongly correlated to the true crude mortality rate (Pearson r = 0.72). Direct prediction of mortality using a deep learning model across a cross-section of 430 U.S. counties identified key features in the environment (e.g., sidewalks, driveways, and hiking trails) associated with lower mortality. Learned image features were clustered, and we identified 10 clusters that were associated with education, income, geographical region, race, and age.Conclusions: The application of deep learning techniques to remotely-sensed features of the built environment can serve as a useful predictor of mortality in the United States. Although we identified features that were largely associated with demographic information, future modeling approaches that directly identify image features associated with health-related outcomes have the potential to inform targeted public health interventions.

Geographic Disparity in the United States Heart Allocation System

2019 ◽  
pp. 65-87
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Karami ◽  
Mehdi Nayebpour ◽  
Monica Gentili ◽  
Naoru Koizumi ◽  
Andrew Rivard
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Waiting Time ◽  
Average Distance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Allocation Model ◽  
Geographic Disparity ◽  
Transplant Candidates ◽  
Geographic Equity ◽  
The Impact

Organ allocation for transplantation across the United States is administered by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). UNOS recently approved a major policy change of the system used to allocate hearts for adult transplant candidates. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of the new policy on geographic disparity measured by four performance indicators (waiting time before a transplant, transplant rate, pre-transplant mortality rate, and average distance traveled by donated hearts). The current policy and the new policy were evaluated using the thoracic simulation allocation model. The results show that the new policy improves the median waiting time, transplant rate, and pre-transplant mortality rate. The overall predicted improvement in geographic equity is modest except in terms of waiting time. The findings highlight the need for a targeted approach for donor heart allocation to achieve equal access to heart transplantation in the US.

“A Hidden War”

2020 ◽  
pp. 109-146
Author(s):  
Pierre-Hugues Verdier
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Payment Systems ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Negative Publicity ◽  
State Prosecutors ◽  
Global Banks ◽  
The U.S

This chapter examines the rise of financial sanctions as a tool of U.S. foreign policy and the role of U.S. prosecutors in enforcing sanctions against global banks. It describes how the United States developed its financial sanctions capabilities against terrorist groups, then turned them against state actors such as North Korea, culminating with elaborate sanctions programs against Iran and Russia. It shows how U.S. federal and state prosecutors uncovered large-scale sanctions evasion efforts at numerous global banks that processed U.S. dollar payments. This enforcement campaign led to some of the largest criminal fines ever levied, and global banks such as HSBC and BNP Paribas agreed to implement U.S. sanctions and anti-money laundering controls in their worldwide operations, thus broadening the reach of U.S. policy. Although U.S. enforcement actions faced strong criticism by U.S. allies, banks facing large fines, negative publicity, and potential loss of access to essential U.S. dollar payment infrastructure complied with U.S. demands. Unlike other cases, U.S. sanctions did not lead to multilateral reforms, instead triggering efforts by sanctioned states and bystanders to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar and U.S. payment systems.

Beyond Military Deterrence

2019 ◽  
pp. 317-334
Author(s):  
Chin-Hao Huang ◽  
David C. Kang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The United States ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Conflict And Cooperation ◽  
Cross Domain ◽  
Full Analysis ◽  
Military Expenditures

States interact in a multiplicity of domains, and most of them are not military in nature. Situating the security domain alongside economic and social domains of interaction among countries is important for creating a full analysis of a state’s priorities in a particular region, or with any particular other state. Failure to appreciate the nonmilitary dimensions of international relations in Asia in particular can lead one to misdiagnose the prospects of conflict and cooperation, potentially leading to tragic spirals. Data on East Asian defense spending over twenty-five years appears to present a puzzle: by many measures, East Asian military expenditures have declined significantly over the past quarter century. This finding appears starkly at odds with the conventional wisdom that Chinese bellicosity, its expenditure on anti-access/area-denial capabilities, and the United States’ reallocation of forces are increasing tensions in the region. Any policy of cross-domain deterrence that fails to appreciate interactions across the full multiplicity of domains of international intercourse risks courting deterrence failure.

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