scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy

2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (4) ◽  
pp. 513-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark D. Powell ◽  
Timothy A. Reinhold
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Loading ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Damage Potential ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Destructive Potential

Tropical cyclone damage potential, as currently defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale and the maximum sustained surface wind speed in the storm, fails to consider the area impact of winds likely to force surge and waves or cause particular levels of damage. Integrated kinetic energy represents a framework that captures the physical process of ocean surface stress forcing waves and surge while also taking into account structural wind loading and the spatial coverage of the wind. Integrated kinetic energy was computed from gridded, objectively analyzed surface wind fields of 23 hurricanes representing large and small storms. A wind destructive potential rating was constructed by weighting wind speed threshold contributions to the integrated kinetic energy, based on observed damage in Hurricanes Andrew, Hugo, and Opal. A combined storm surge and wave destructive potential rating was assigned according to the integrated kinetic energy contributed by winds greater than tropical storm force. The ratings are based on the familiar 1–5 range, with continuous fits to allow for storms as weak as 0.1 or as strong as 5.99.

Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Kinetic Energy Evolution

2008 ◽  
Vol 136 (12) ◽  
pp. 4882-4898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine S. Maclay ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Thomas H. Vonder Haar
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Statistical Testing ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Structure Evolution ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Secondary Eyewall Formation ◽  
Wind Structure

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) destructive potential is highly dependent on the distribution of the surface wind field. To gain a better understanding of wind structure evolution, TC 0–200-km wind fields from aircraft reconnaissance flight-level data are used to calculate the low-level area-integrated kinetic energy (KE). The integrated KE depends on both the maximum winds and wind structure. To isolate the structure evolution, the average relationship between KE and intensity is first determined. Then the deviations of the KE from the mean intensity relationship are calculated. These KE deviations reveal cases of significant structural change and, for convenience, are referred to as measurements of storm size [storms with greater (less) KE for their given intensity are considered large (small)]. It is established that TCs generally either intensify and do not grow or they weaken/maintain intensity and grow. Statistical testing is used to identify conditions that are significantly different for growing versus nongrowing storms in each intensification regime. Results suggest two primary types of growth processes: (i) secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycles, an internally dominated process, and (ii) external forcing from the synoptic environment. One of the most significant environmental forcings is the vertical shear. Under light shear, TCs intensify but do not grow; under moderate shear, they intensify less but grow more; under very high shear, they do not intensify or grow. As a supplement to this study, a new TC classification system based on KE and intensity is presented as a complement to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale.

scholarly journals Improved near real time surface wind resolution over the Mediterranean Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bentamy ◽  
H.-L. Ayina ◽  
P. Queffeulou ◽  
D. Croize-Fillon ◽  
V. Kerbaol
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. Several scientific programs, including the Mediterranean Forecasting System Toward Environmental Predictions (MFSTEP project), request high space and time resolutions of surface wind speed and direction. The purpose of this paper is to focus on surface wind improvements over the global Mediterranean Sea, based on the blending near real time remotely sensed wind observations and ECMWF wind analysis. Ocean surface wind observations are retrieved from QuikSCAT scatterometer and from SSM/I radiometers available at near real time at Météo-France. Using synchronous satellite data, the number of remotely sensed data available for each analysis epoch (00:00 h; 06:00 h; 12:00 h; 18:00 h) is not uniformly distributed as a function of space and time. On average two satellite wind observations are available for each analysis time period. The analysis is performed by optimum interpolation (OI) based on the kriging approach. The needed covariance matrixes are estimated from the satellite wind speed, zonal and meridional component observations. The quality of the 6-hourly resulting blended wind fields on 0.25° grid are investigated trough comparisons with the remotely sensed observations as well as with moored buoy wind averaged wind estimates. The blended wind data and remotely wind observations, occurring within 3 h and 0.25° from the analysis estimates, compare well over the global basin as well as over the sub-basins. The correlation coefficients exceed 0.95 while the rms difference values are less than 0.30 m/s. Using measurements from moored buoys, the high-resolution wind fields are found to have similar accuracy as satellite wind retrievals. Blended wind estimates exhibit better comparisons with buoy moored in open sea than near shore.

scholarly journals Estimating Tropical Cyclone Integrated Kinetic Energy with the CYGNSS Satellite Constellation

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 235-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Morris ◽  
Christopher S. Ruf
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
High Temporal Resolution

AbstractThe Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) constellation is designed to provide observations of surface wind speed in and near the inner core of tropical cyclones with high temporal resolution throughout the storm’s life cycle. A method is developed for estimating tropical cyclone integrated kinetic energy (IKE) using CYGNSS observations. IKE is calculated for each geographically based quadrant out to an estimate of the 34-kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) wind radius. The CYGNSS-IKE estimator is tested and its performance is characterized using simulated CYGNSS observations with realistic measurement errors. CYGNSS-IKE performance improves for stronger, more organized storms and with increasing number of observations over the extent of the 34-kt radius. Known sampling information can be used for quality control. While CYGNSS-IKE is calculated for individual geographic quadrants, using a total-IKE—a sum over all quadrants—improves performance. CYGNSS-IKE should be of interest to operational and research meteorologists, insurance companies, and others interested in the destructive potential of tropical cyclones developing in data-sparse regions, which will now be covered by CYGNSS. The CYGNSS-IKE product will be available for the 2017 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season.

scholarly journals Improvements to the Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Model

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 586-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Michael J. Brennan ◽  
Daniel Brown ◽  
Richard D. Knabb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Error Distributions ◽  
Most Significant Change

Abstract The National Hurricane Center Hurricane Probability Program, which estimated the probability of a tropical cyclone passing within a specific distance of a selected set of coastal stations, was replaced by the more general Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities in 2006. A Monte Carlo (MC) method is used to estimate the probabilities of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) winds at multiple time periods through 120 h. Versions of the MC model are available for the Atlantic, the combined eastern and central North Pacific, and the western North Pacific. This paper presents a verification of the operational runs of the MC model for the period 2008–11 and describes model improvements since 2007. The most significant change occurred in 2010 with the inclusion of a method to take into account the uncertainty of the track forecasts on a case-by-case basis, which is estimated from the spread of a dynamical model ensemble and other parameters. The previous version represented the track uncertainty from the error distributions from the previous 5 yr of forecasts from the operational centers, with no case-to-case variability. Results show the MC model provides robust estimates of the wind speed probabilities using a number of standard verification metrics, and that the inclusion of the case-by-case measure of track uncertainty improved the probability estimates. Beginning in 2008, an older operational wind speed probability table product was modified to include information from the MC model. This development and a verification of the new version of the table are described.

scholarly journals Improved near real time surface wind resolution over the Mediterranean Sea

2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bentamy ◽  
H.-L. Ayina ◽  
P. Queffeulou ◽  
D. Croize-Fillon
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Space And Time ◽  
The Mediterranean

Abstract. Several scientific programs, including the Mediterranean Forecasting System Toward Environmental Predictions (MFSTEP project), request high space and time resolutions of surface wind speed and direction. The purpose of this paper is to focus on surface wind improvements over the global Mediterranean Sea, based on the blending near real time remotely sensed wind observations and ECMWF wind analysis. Ocean surface wind observations are retrieved from QuikSCAT scatterometer and from SSM/I radiometers available at near real time at Météo-France. Using synchronous satellite data, the number of remotely sensed data available for each analysis epoch (00:00 h; 06:00 h; 12:00 h; 18:00 h) is not uniformly distributed as a function of space and time. On average two satellite wind observations are available for each analysis time period. The analysis is performed by optimum interpolation (OI) based on the kriging approach. The needed covariance matrixes are estimated from the satellite wind speed, zonal and meridional component observations. The quality of the 6-hourly resulting blended wind fields on 0.25° grid are investigated trough comparisons with the remotely sensed observations as well as with moored buoy wind averaged wind estimates. The blended wind data and remotely wind observations, occurring within 3 h and 0.25° from the analysis estimates, compare well over the global basin as well as over the sub-basins. The correlation coefficients exceed 0.95 while the rms difference values are less than 0.30 m/s. Using measurements from moored buoys, the high-resolution wind fields are found to have similar accuracy as satellite wind retrievals. Blended wind estimates exhibit better comparisons with buoy moored in open sea than near shore.

scholarly journals The Boundary Layer Dynamics of Tropical Cyclone Rainbands

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (11) ◽  
pp. 3777-3795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey D. Kepert
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Maximum ◽  
Boundary Layer Dynamics ◽  
Spiral Bands

Abstract Spiral bands are ubiquitous features in tropical cyclones and significantly affect boundary layer thermodynamics, yet knowledge of their boundary layer dynamics is lacking. Prompted by recent work that has shown that relatively weak axisymmetric vorticity perturbations outside of the radius of maximum winds in tropical cyclones can produce remarkably strong frictional convergence, and by the observation that most secondary eyewalls appear to form by the “wrapping up” of a spiral rainband, the effect of asymmetric vorticity features that mimic spiral bands is studied. The mass field corresponding to an axisymmetric vortex with added spiral vorticity band is constructed using the nonlinear balance equation, and supplied to a three-dimensional boundary layer model. The resulting flow has strong low-level convergence and a marked updraft extending along the vorticity band and some distance downwind. There is a marked along-band wind maximum in the upper boundary layer, similar to observations, which is up to about 20% stronger than the balanced flow. A marked gradient in the inflow-layer depth exists across the band and there is an increase in the surface wind factor (the ratio of surface wind speed to nonlinear-balanced wind speed) near the band. The boundary layer dynamics near a rainband therefore form a continuum with the flow near a secondary eyewall. None of these features are due to convective momentum transports, which are absent from the model. The sensitivities of the flow to band length, width, location, crossing angle, and amplitude are examined, and the possible contribution of boundary layer dynamics to the formation of the tropical cyclone rainbands discussed.

scholarly journals Determining Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Structure and Intensity with the CYGNSS Satellite Constellation

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (7) ◽  
pp. 1847-1865 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Morris ◽  
Christopher S. Ruf
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Satellite System ◽  
Maximum Surface ◽  
Wind Speed Distribution ◽  
Global Navigation Satellite ◽  
Future Work

AbstractThe Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) consists of a constellation of eight microsatellites that provide observations of surface wind speed in all precipitating conditions. A method for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) metrics—maximum surface wind speed VMAX, radius of maximum surface wind speed RMAX, and wind radii (R64, R50, and R34)—from CYGNSS observations is developed and tested using simulated CYGNSS observations with realistic measurement errors. Using two inputs, 1) CYGNSS observations and 2) the storm center location, estimates of TC metrics are possible through the use of a parametric wind model algorithm that effectively interpolates between the available observations as a constraint on the assumed wind speed distribution. This methodology has a promising performance as evaluated from the simulations presented. In particular, after quality-control filters based on sampling properties are applied to the population of test cases, the standard deviation of retrieval error for VMAX is 4.3 m s−1 (where 1 m s−1 = 1.94 kt), for RMAX is 17.4 km, for R64 is 16.8 km, for R50 is 21.6 km, and for R34 is 41.3 km (where 1 km = 0.54 n mi). These TC data products will be available for the 2017 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season using on-orbit CYGNSS observations, but near-real-time operations are the subject of future work. Future work will also include calibration and validation of the algorithm once real CYGNSS data are available.

scholarly journals An Empirical Model for Predicting the Decay of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed after Landfall over the Indian Region

2005 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. K. Roy Bhowmik ◽  
S. D. Kotal ◽  
S. R. Kalsi
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Dependent Sample ◽  
Over Time

Abstract An empirical model for predicting the maximum surface wind speed associated with a tropical cyclone after crossing the east coast of India is described. The model parameters are determined from the database of 19 recent cyclones. The model is based upon the assumption that tropical cyclone winds decay exponentially after landfall. A method for correcting the forecast during subsequent observation hours is also presented. Results show that without the correction factor the absolute mean error ranges from 6.1 to 4.9 kt (1 kt = 0.5144 m s−1) and the root-mean-square error ranges from 7.9 to 5.6 kt, with both decreasing over time. With the incorporation of the correction procedure, a significant improvement in the forecast skill is noticed for the case in which it is tested using the dependent sample. The model is expected to be very useful to operational forecasters.

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