scholarly journals Explaining Rainfall Accumulations over Several Days in the French Alps Using Low-Dimensional Atmospheric Predictors Based on Analogy

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-250
Author(s):  
Juliette Blanchet ◽  
Jean-Dominique Creutin

AbstractWe propose a new approach to explain multiday rainfall accumulation over a French Alpine watershed using large-scale atmospheric predictors based on analogy. The classical analogy framework associates a rainfall cumulative distribution function (CDF) with a given atmospheric situation from the precipitation accumulations yielded by the closest situations. The analogy may apply to single-day or multiday sequences of pressure fields. The proposed approach represents a paradigm shift in analogy. It relies on the similarity of the local topology mapping the pressure field sequences, somehow forgetting the pressure fields per se. This topology is summarized by the way the sequences of pressure fields resemble their neighbors (dimensional predictors) and how fast they evolve in time (dynamical predictors). Although some information—and hence predictability—is expected to be lost when compared with classical analogy, this approach provides new insight on the atmospheric features generating rainfall CDFs. We apply both approaches to geopotential heights over western Europe in view of assessing 3-day rainfall accumulations over the Isère River catchment at Grenoble, France. Results show that dimensional predictors are the most skillful features for predicting 3-day rainfall—bringing alone 60% of the predictability of the classical analogy approach—whereas the dynamical predictors are less explicative. These results open new directions of research that the classical analogy approach cannot handle. They show, for instance, that both dry sequences and strong rainfall sequences are associated with singular 500-hPa geopotential shapes acting as local attractors—a way of explaining the change in rainfall CDFs in a changing climate.

Algorithms ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Alexey Vakhnin ◽  
Evgenii Sopov

Many modern real-valued optimization tasks use “black-box” (BB) models for evaluating objective functions and they are high-dimensional and constrained. Using common classifications, we can identify them as constrained large-scale global optimization (cLSGO) tasks. Today, the IEEE Congress of Evolutionary Computation provides a special session and several benchmarks for LSGO. At the same time, cLSGO problems are not well studied yet. The majority of modern optimization techniques demonstrate insufficient performance when confronted with cLSGO tasks. The effectiveness of evolution algorithms (EAs) in solving constrained low-dimensional optimization problems has been proven in many scientific papers and studies. Moreover, the cooperative coevolution (CC) framework has been successfully applied for EA used to solve LSGO problems. In this paper, a new approach for solving cLSGO has been proposed. This approach is based on CC and a method that increases the size of groups of variables at the decomposition stage (iCC) when solving cLSGO tasks. A new algorithm has been proposed, which combined the success-history based parameter adaptation for differential evolution (SHADE) optimizer, iCC, and the ε-constrained method (namely ε-iCC-SHADE). We investigated the performance of the ε-iCC-SHADE and compared it with the previously proposed ε-CC-SHADE algorithm on scalable problems from the IEEE CEC 2017 Competition on constrained real-parameter optimization.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Blanc ◽  
Juliette Blanchet ◽  
Jean-Dominique Creutin

<p><span>Large-scale circulations (LSCs) explain a significant part of Alpine precipitations. Characterizing circulations triggering heavy precipitation is usually done using weather-type classifications. A different characterization is implemented here, based on analogy using the atmospheric descriptors proposed in Blanchet et al 2018, 2019. These descriptors are both related to the dynamics of LSC and to their relative position in the atmospheric space. </span><span>This work is applied to the Isère river catchment for the 1950-2011 period, considering a 3-</span><span>day time step. The 500 hPa and 1000 hPa geopotential heights covering part of the western Europe are used separately to represent LSC. Two analogy criteria are investigated for constructing the atmospheric descriptors, namely TWS and RMSE.</span></p><p>Our results reveal that LSCs triggering heavy precipitation amounts correspond to strong geostrophic wind with quasi constant direction during the three days, corresponding to blocking situations in altitude. Moreover, those patterns of circulation are among the least singulars, and they show the highest degree of clustering in the atmospheric space. We interpret the latest results by the fact that heavy precipitation LSCs feature twin circulation patterns. In addition, the 500 hPa geopotential height appears to discriminate better heavy precipitation situations than the 1000 hPa one. Finally, our work points out the benefit of a combined use of TWS and RMSE. TWS gives information about the direction of geostrophic wind, while RMSE -combined with TWS- informs about its strength.</p><p>References:</p><p>Blanchet, J., Stalla, S., and Creutin, J.-D. (2018). Analogy of multi-day sequences of atmospheric circulation favoring large rainfall accumulation over the French Alps. Atmospheric Science Letters.</p><p>Blanchet, J., Creutin, J-D. <span>(2019). Modelling rainfall accumulations over several days in the French Alps using low-dimensional atmospheric predictors based on analogy. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.</span></p>


Author(s):  
Ron Harris

Before the seventeenth century, trade across Eurasia was mostly conducted in short segments along the Silk Route and Indian Ocean. Business was organized in family firms, merchant networks, and state-owned enterprises, and dominated by Chinese, Indian, and Arabic traders. However, around 1600 the first two joint-stock corporations, the English and Dutch East India Companies, were established. This book tells the story of overland and maritime trade without Europeans, of European Cape Route trade without corporations, and of how new, large-scale, and impersonal organizations arose in Europe to control long-distance trade for more than three centuries. It shows that by 1700, the scene and methods for global trade had dramatically changed: Dutch and English merchants shepherded goods directly from China and India to northwestern Europe. To understand this transformation, the book compares the organizational forms used in four major regions: China, India, the Middle East, and Western Europe. The English and Dutch were the last to leap into Eurasian trade, and they innovated in order to compete. They raised capital from passive investors through impersonal stock markets and their joint-stock corporations deployed more capital, ships, and agents to deliver goods from their origins to consumers. The book explores the history behind a cornerstone of the modern economy, and how this organizational revolution contributed to the formation of global trade and the creation of the business corporation as a key factor in Europe's economic rise.


Author(s):  
V. Skibchyk ◽  
V. Dnes ◽  
R. Kudrynetskyi ◽  
O. Krypuch

Аnnotation Purpose. To increase the efficiency of technological processes of grain harvesting by large-scale agricultural producers due to the rational use of combine harvesters available on the farm. Methods. In the course of the research the methods of system analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, system-factor and system-event approaches, graphic method were used. Results. Characteristic events that occur during the harvesting of grain crops, both within a single production unit and the entire agricultural producer are identified. A method for predicting time intervals of use and downtime of combine harvesters of production units has been developed. The roadmap of substantiation the rational seasonal scenario of the use of grain harvesters of large-scale agricultural producers is developed, which allows estimating the efficiency of each of the scenarios of multivariate placement of grain harvesters on fields taking into account influence of natural production and agrometeorological factors on the efficiency of technological cultures. Conclusions 1. Known scientific and methodological approaches to optimization of machine used in agriculture do not take into account the risks of losses of crops due to late harvesting, as well as seasonal natural and agrometeorological conditions of each production unit of the farmer, which requires a new approach to the rational use of rational seasonal combines of large agricultural producers. 2. The developed new approach to the substantiation of the rational seasonal scenario of the use of combined harvesters of large-scale agricultural producers allows taking into account the costs of harvesting of grain and the cost of the lost crop because of the lateness of harvesting at optimum variants of attraction of additional free combine harvesters. provides more profit. 3. The practical application of the developed road map will allow large-scale agricultural producers to use combine harvesters more efficiently and reduce harvesting costs. Keywords: combine harvesters, use, production divisions, risk, seasonal scenario, large-scale agricultural producers.


Author(s):  
S. Pragati ◽  
S. Kuldeep ◽  
S. Ashok ◽  
M. Satheesh

One of the situations in the treatment of disease is the delivery of efficacious medication of appropriate concentration to the site of action in a controlled and continual manner. Nanoparticle represents an important particulate carrier system, developed accordingly. Nanoparticles are solid colloidal particles ranging in size from 1 to 1000 nm and composed of macromolecular material. Nanoparticles could be polymeric or lipidic (SLNs). Industry estimates suggest that approximately 40% of lipophilic drug candidates fail due to solubility and formulation stability issues, prompting significant research activity in advanced lipophile delivery technologies. Solid lipid nanoparticle technology represents a promising new approach to lipophile drug delivery. Solid lipid nanoparticles (SLNs) are important advancement in this area. The bioacceptable and biodegradable nature of SLNs makes them less toxic as compared to polymeric nanoparticles. Supplemented with small size which prolongs the circulation time in blood, feasible scale up for large scale production and absence of burst effect makes them interesting candidates for study. In this present review this new approach is discussed in terms of their preparation, advantages, characterization and special features.


1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 155-174
Author(s):  
Henk L. F. Saeijs

The Delta Project is in its final stage. In 1974 it was subjected to political reconsideration, but it is scheduled now for completion in 1987. The final touches are being put to the storm-surge barrier and two compartment dams that divide the Oosterschelde into three areas: one tidal, one with reduced tide, and one a freshwater lake. Compartmentalization will result in 13% of channels, 45% of intertidal flats and 59% of salt marshes being lost. There is a net gain of 7% of shallow-water areas. Human interventions with large scale impacts are not new in the Oosterschelde but the large scale and short time in which these interventions are taking place are, as is the creation of a controlled tidal system. This article focusses on the area with reduced tide and compares resent day and expected characteristics. In this reduced tidal part salt marshes will extend by 30–70%; intertidal flats will erode to a lower level and at their edges, and the area of shallow water will increase by 47%. Biomass production on the intertidal flats will decrease, with consequences for crustaceans, fishes and birds. The maximum number of waders counted on one day and the number of ‘bird-days' will decrease drastically, with negative effects for the wader populations of western Europe. The net area with a hard substratum in the reduced tidal part has more than doubled. Channels will become shallower. Detritus import will not change significantly. Stratification and oxygen depletion will be rare and local. The operation of the storm-surge barrier and the closure strategy chosen are very important for the ecosystem. Two optional closure strategies can be followed without any additional environmental consequences. It was essential to determine a clearly defined plan of action for the whole area, and to make land-use choices from the outset. How this was done is briefly described.


Author(s):  
M. E. J. Newman ◽  
R. G. Palmer

Developed after a meeting at the Santa Fe Institute on extinction modeling, this book comments critically on the various modeling approaches. In the last decade or so, scientists have started to examine a new approach to the patterns of evolution and extinction in the fossil record. This approach may be called "statistical paleontology," since it looks at large-scale patterns in the record and attempts to understand and model their average statistical features, rather than their detailed structure. Examples of the patterns these studies examine are the distribution of the sizes of mass extinction events over time, the distribution of species lifetimes, or the apparent increase in the number of species alive over the last half a billion years. In attempting to model these patterns, researchers have drawn on ideas not only from paleontology, but from evolutionary biology, ecology, physics, and applied mathematics, including fitness landscapes, competitive exclusion, interaction matrices, and self-organized criticality. A self-contained review of work in this field.


2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan E Campbell-Anson ◽  
Diane Kentor ◽  
Yi J Wang ◽  
Kathryn M Bushnell ◽  
Yufeng Li ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 194-207
Author(s):  
PIET GELEYNS

The Hoge Kempen rural industrial transition landscape: a layered landscape of Outstanding Universal Value? Up until the beginning of the 20th century, the eastern part of the Belgian province of Limburg was a sparsely populated and not very productive part of the country. The dominating heathland was maintained with sheep, which were an essential part of a small-scale extensive farming system. This all changed when coal was discovered in 1901. Seven large coalmines were established in a few decades, each one employing thousands of coal-miners. This also meant that entire new garden cities were built, to house the coal-miners and their families. The confrontation between the small-scale traditional land-use and the new large-scale industrial developments defines the landscape up to today. The scale and the force of the turnover are considered unprecedented for Western Europe, which is why it is being presented by Belgium for inclusion in the World Heritage List.


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