scholarly journals Model-Based Estimation of Dynamic Effect on Twenty-First-Century Precipitation for Swiss River Basins

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (8) ◽  
pp. 2897-2913 ◽  
Author(s):  
James V. Rudolph ◽  
Katja Friedrich ◽  
Urs Germann
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
River Basins ◽  
First Century ◽  
Total Precipitation ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Synoptic Pattern ◽  
Synoptic Patterns ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Projections of twenty-first-century precipitation for seven Swiss river basins are generated by linking high-resolution (2 km × 2 km) radar-estimated precipitation observations to a global climate model (GCM) via synoptic weather patterns. The use of synoptic patterns characterizes the effect of changes in large-scale circulation, or dynamic effects, on precipitation. In each basin observed total daily precipitation received during advective synoptic patterns is shown to be dependent on the basin’s general topographic aspect. Across all basins convective synoptic patterns follow the same trend in total daily precipitation with cyclonic patterns consistently producing a larger amount of precipitation than anticyclonic patterns. Identification of synoptic patterns from a GCM for the twenty-first century [Community Climate System Model, version 3.0, (CCSM3)] shows increasing frequency of anticyclonic synoptic patterns, decreasing frequency of cyclonic patterns, and constant frequency of advective patterns over Switzerland. When coupled with observed radar-estimated precipitation for each synoptic pattern, the changes in synoptic pattern frequencies result in an approximately 10%–15% decrease in decadal precipitation over the course of the twenty-first century for seven Swiss river basins. The study results also show an insignificant change in the future (twenty-first century) probability of exceeding the current (2000–08) 95th quantile of total precipitation. The lack of a trend in exceeding the 95th quantile of precipitation in combination with a decreasing trend in total precipitation provides evidence that dynamic effects will not result in increased frequency of heavy precipitation events, but that heavy precipitation will account for a greater proportion of total precipitation in Swiss river basins by the end of the twenty-first century.

How Often Will It Rain?

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (19) ◽  
pp. 4801-4818 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Sun ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Robert W. Portmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Simultaneous Increase ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract Daily precipitation data from climate change simulations using the latest generation of coupled climate system models are analyzed for potential future changes in precipitation characteristics. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 (a low projection), A1B (a medium projection), and A2 (a high projection) during the twenty-first century, all the models consistently show a shift toward more intense and extreme precipitation for the globe as a whole and over various regions. For both SRES B1 and A2, most models show decreased daily precipitation frequency and all the models show increased daily precipitation intensity. The multimodel averaged percentage increase in the precipitation intensity (2.0% K−1) is larger than the magnitude of the precipitation frequency decrease (−0.7% K−1). However, the shift in precipitation frequency distribution toward extremes results in large increases in very heavy precipitation events (>50 mm day−1), so that for very heavy precipitation, the percentage increase in frequency is much larger than the increase in intensity (31.2% versus 2.4%). The climate model projected increases in daily precipitation intensity are, however, smaller than that based on simple thermodynamics (∼7% K−1). Multimodel ensemble means show that precipitation amount increases during the twenty-first century over high latitudes, as well as over currently wet regions in low- and midlatitudes more than other regions. This increase mostly results from a combination of increased frequency and intensity. Over the dry regions in the subtropics, the precipitation amount generally declines because of decreases in both frequency and intensity. This indicates that wet regions may get wetter and dry regions may become drier mostly because of a simultaneous increase (decrease) of precipitation frequency and intensity.

The Role of Education Colleges in Yemeni Universities to Develop Twenty-First Century Skills among Students

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (47) ◽  
pp. 103-130
Author(s):  
عبد الغني أحمد علي الحاوري ◽  
محمد عبد الله حسن حميد
Keyword(s):  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Effective Communication ◽  
First Century ◽  
Self Management ◽  
Colleges Of Education ◽  
Use Of Technology ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Twenty First Century Skills

The study aimed to examine the role of colleges of education in Yemeni universities in developing the twenty-first century skills among students. The skills include critical thinking and problem-solving; creative thinking; effective communication and cooperation with others; flexibility; adaptation and change management; self and continuous learning; leadership and working with a team; taking responsibility and making decisions; using technology efficiently; understanding and interacting with diverse cultures; and work and self-management. The followed the descriptive and analytical method, using a questionnaire that was distributed to a random sample of (408) students selected from the fourth level of the Faculties of Education in four public universities: Sana'a, Hajjah, Amran, and Hodeidah.  The study results revealed a medium role that the colleges of education in Yemeni universities play in developing the twenty-first century skills among their students. The skill of effective communication and cooperation with others received the highest attention, while the skills of work, self-management and the skills of using technology efficiently received the lowest level of attention.  The study concluded with a number of conclusions, including absence of a vision for the challenges and requirements of the twenty-first century and lack of support provided to colleges to purchase facilities and equipment. The study recommended that the colleges of education should pay more attention to developing the twenty-first century skills, especially work and self-management skills and the efficient use of technology. Keywords: role, education college, skills, twenty-first century, Yemeni universities.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of High-Intensity Precipitation Events over West Africa for the Late Twenty-First Century*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (16) ◽  
pp. 6475-6488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla ◽  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
Jeremy S. Pal ◽  
Peter Gibba ◽  
Ibourahima Kebe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
First Century ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this study, the response of the annual cycle of high-intensity daily precipitation events over West Africa to anthropogenic greenhouse gas for the late twenty-first century is investigated using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model experiments. For the present day, the RCM ensemble substantially improves the simulation of the annual cycle for various precipitation statistics compared to the driving Earth system models. The late-twenty-first-century projected changes in mean precipitation exhibit a delay of the monsoon season, consistent with previous studies. In addition, these projections indicate a prevailing decrease in frequency but increase in intensity of very wet events, particularly in the premonsoon and early mature monsoon stages, more pronounced over the Sahel and in RCP8.5 than the Gulf of Guinea and in RCP4.5. This is due to the presence of stronger moisture convergence in the boundary layer that sustains intense precipitation once convection is initiated. The premonsoon season experiences the largest changes in daily precipitation statistics, particularly toward an increased risk of drought associated with a decrease in mean precipitation and frequency of wet days and an increased risk of flood associated with very wet events. Both of these features can produce significant stresses on important sectors such as agriculture and water resources at a time of the year (e.g., the monsoon onset) where such stresses can have stronger impacts. The results thus point toward the importance of analyzing changes of precipitation characteristics as a function of the regional seasonal and subseasonal cycles of rainfall.

scholarly journals Modern teacher and the challenges of the twenty-first century: المعلم العصري وتحديات القرن الواحد والعشرين

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (19) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatma Moustafa Swilam Youssef
Keyword(s):  
Teacher Preparation ◽  
Educational Process ◽  
First Century ◽  
New Developments ◽  
Study Results ◽  
E Learning ◽  
Descriptive Approach ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Modern Era

The current study aimed to reveal how to prepare the teacher in light of the challenges of the twenty-first century and how can he Confrontation them?, The current study is based on a descriptive approach to monitoring the current reality of teacher preparation and the challenges it faces in the twenty-first century and How did the teacher prepare in the field of e-learning in terms of skills and competencies necessary for that field so that the teacher can meet these challenges and new developments In the modern era. The study results are summarized in terms of teacher preparation in the various disciplines, adequate preparation, whether it is before service or during it, and that the job of the teacher changes with the change of contemporary life and its requirements and then he has to adapt these changes in order to build a new generation, Whereas, The criteria for judging the level of education in any country is the level of teacher preparation and training programs, and this requires comprehensive preparation for the teacher, especially with the massive expansion in the amount of scientific and human knowledge. The study recommends that the teacher must keep abreast of everything new in his field, whether on the scientific or professional level, and acquire some skills and competencies that help to Keep up with the challenges of the twenty-first century and employ technology in the educational process.

scholarly journals Twenty-First-Century Changes in U.S. Regional Heavy Precipitation Frequency Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 2501-2521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Gao ◽  
C. Adam Schlosser ◽  
Paul A. O’Gorman ◽  
Erwan Monier ◽  
Dara Entekhabi
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Precipitation Events

Precipitation-gauge observations and atmospheric reanalysis are combined to develop an analogue method for detecting heavy precipitation events based on prevailing large-scale atmospheric conditions. Combinations of atmospheric variables for circulation (geopotential height and wind vector) and moisture (surface specific humidity, column and up to 500-hPa precipitable water) are examined to construct analogue schemes for the winter [December–February (DJF)] of the “Pacific Coast California” (PCCA) region and the summer [June–August (JJA)] of the Midwestern United States (MWST). The detection diagnostics of analogue schemes are calibrated with 1979–2005 and validated with 2006–14 NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). All analogue schemes are found to significantly improve upon MERRA precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events in the MWST. When evaluated with the late twentieth-century climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), all analogue schemes produce model medians of heavy precipitation frequency that are more consistent with observations and have smaller intermodel discrepancies than model-based precipitation. Under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CMIP5-based analogue schemes produce trends in heavy precipitation occurrence through the twenty-first century that are consistent with model-based precipitation, but with smaller intermodel disparity. The median trends in heavy precipitation frequency are positive for DJF over PCCA but are slightly negative for JJA over MWST. Overall, the analyses highlight the potential of the analogue as a powerful diagnostic tool for model deficiencies and its complementarity to an evaluation of heavy precipitation frequency based on model precipitation alone.

scholarly journals Heavy Precipitation Events in a Warmer Climate: Results from CMIP5 Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (20) ◽  
pp. 7902-7911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Alessio Bellucci ◽  
Matteo Zampieri ◽  
Antonio Navarra
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Precipitation Distribution ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Right ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract In this work, the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the twenty-first century and the twentieth century, assuming the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, the authors use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both boreal summer and winter seasons for the 1997–2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on models from phase 3 of CMIP (CMIP3). CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter.

scholarly journals A.R. Luria: Ideas and Prospects of Their Development in Pedagogical Psychology of the Twenty-first Century

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Cheremisova
Keyword(s):  
Professional Training ◽  
Language Evolution ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
First Century ◽  
Education Development ◽  
Musical Education ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Main Ideas

A.R. Luria’s ideas are well-known and recognized both in Russia and abroad. Scientists from different countries are actively working in neuropsychology, a part of the psychological science developed by A.R. Luria. The author has shown the relevance and importance of the neuropsychological approach to the pedagogical psychology problems and the availability to choose an adequate educational and nurturing strategy from these standpoints. The study seeks to rethink and assess the importance of A.R. Luria’s main ideas from the modern pedagogical psychology’s standpoints. The characteristic of the main theoretical provisions has been set forthbased on the analysis of A.R. Luria’s academic papers and the main directions and prospects for the development of A.R. Luria’s ideas in the modern psychological pedagogical science have been determined. A.R. Luria’s academic papers most sought by the modern researchers have been noted. The study is based on the materials of the thesis researches on the pedagogical psychology problems conducted in the beginning of the twenty-first century, A.R. Luria’s papers, the publications of other researchers who have studied his contribution to the psychological science. The study results show that A.R. Luria has significantly contributed to the development of the pedagogical psychology problems. A.R. Luria’s ideas on the interaction of the humanitarian and science knowledge in the human comprehensive study, the cultural and historical understanding of the psychical functions development, and the language evolution in the music language study for the musical education development seem most promising for the pedagogical psychology development. Note has been taken of the importance of A.R. Luria’s ideas for the elaboration of the relevant problems of thetraining and development of a person at any age; the study of individual and typical features in mastering a foreign language; the study of the semantics of speech and means of coding meanings in the context of professional training of psychologists and teachers, specialists in the field of artistic creativity. The analysis of A.R. Luria’s main ideas facilitates the deeper understanding of the modern problems of the pedagogicalpsychology theory and practice. Keywords: pedagogical psychology, A.R. Luria, musical education, professional training of psychologists, education in senior age, psychological service

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