Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (21) ◽  
pp. 8363-8378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toby R. Ault ◽  
Mark D. Schwartz ◽  
Raul Zurita-Milla ◽  
Jake F. Weltzin ◽  
Julio L. Betancourt
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Ecological Systems ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Activity Tracking ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Gridded Dataset ◽  
Regional Trends ◽  
Consistent Manner

Abstract Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from −0.8 to −1.6 days decade−1, while first bloom index trends are between −0.4 and −1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

scholarly journals Variability Common to First Leaf Dates and Snowpack in the Western Conterminous United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (26) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Julio L. Betancourt ◽  
Gregory T. Pederson ◽  
Mark D. Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Value Decomposition

Abstract Singular value decomposition is used to identify the common variability in first leaf dates (FLDs) and 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) for the western United States during the period 1900–2012. Results indicate two modes of joint variability that explain 57% of the variability in FLD and 69% of the variability in SWE. The first mode of joint variability is related to widespread late winter–spring warming or cooling across the entire west. The second mode can be described as a north–south dipole in temperature for FLD, as well as in cool season temperature and precipitation for SWE, that is closely correlated to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Additionally, both modes of variability indicate a relation with the Pacific–North American atmospheric pattern. These results indicate that there is a substantial amount of common variance in FLD and SWE that is related to large-scale modes of climate variability.

Quality Control of Data in a Large-Scale Cancer Register Program

1966 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 67-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. I. Lourie ◽  
W. Haenszeland
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Quality Control ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Related Data ◽  
Cancer Register ◽  
Independent Review ◽  
End Results

Quality control of data collected in the United States by the Cancer End Results Program utilizing punchcards prepared by participating registries in accordance with a Uniform Punchcard Code is discussed. Existing arrangements decentralize responsibility for editing and related data processing to the local registries with centralization of tabulating and statistical services in the End Results Section, National Cancer Institute. The most recent deck of punchcards represented over 600,000 cancer patients; approximately 50,000 newly diagnosed cases are added annually.Mechanical editing and inspection of punchcards and field audits are the principal tools for quality control. Mechanical editing of the punchcards includes testing for blank entries and detection of in-admissable or inconsistent codes. Highly improbable codes are subjected to special scrutiny. Field audits include the drawing of a 1-10 percent random sample of punchcards submitted by a registry; the charts are .then reabstracted and recoded by a NCI staff member and differences between the punchcard and the results of independent review are noted.

Utopias of One

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Kotin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
World War I ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Jim Crow ◽  
Personal Autonomy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Soviet Period ◽  
Original Research ◽  
The Soviet Union

This book is a new account of utopian writing. It examines how eight writers—Henry David Thoreau, W. E. B. Du Bois, Osip and Nadezhda Mandel'shtam, Anna Akhmatova, Wallace Stevens, Ezra Pound, and J. H. Prynne—construct utopias of one within and against modernity's two large-scale attempts to harmonize individual and collective interests: liberalism and communism. The book begins in the United States between the buildup to the Civil War and the end of Jim Crow; continues in the Soviet Union between Stalinism and the late Soviet period; and concludes in England and the United States between World War I and the end of the Cold War. In this way it captures how writers from disparate geopolitical contexts resist state and normative power to construct perfect worlds—for themselves alone. The book contributes to debates about literature and politics, presenting innovative arguments about aesthetic difficulty, personal autonomy, and complicity and dissent. It models a new approach to transnational and comparative scholarship, combining original research in English and Russian to illuminate more than a century and a half of literary and political history.

Situational Breakdowns

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Nassauer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Contextual Factors ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Outcomes ◽  
Dynamic Processes ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

This book provides an account of how and why routine interactions break down and how such situational breakdowns lead to protest violence and other types of surprising social outcomes. It takes a close-up look at the dynamic processes of how situations unfold and compares their role to that of motivations, strategies, and other contextual factors. The book discusses factors that can draw us into violent situations and describes how and why we make uncommon individual and collective decisions. Covering different types of surprise outcomes from protest marches and uprisings turning violent to robbers failing to rob a store at gunpoint, it shows how unfolding situations can override our motivations and strategies and how emotions and culture, as well as rational thinking, still play a part in these events. The first chapters study protest violence in Germany and the United States from 1960 until 2010, taking a detailed look at what happens between the start of a protest and the eruption of violence or its peaceful conclusion. They compare the impact of such dynamics to the role of police strategies and culture, protesters’ claims and violent motivations, the black bloc and agents provocateurs. The analysis shows how violence is triggered, what determines its intensity, and which measures can avoid its outbreak. The book explores whether we find similar situational patterns leading to surprising outcomes in other types of small- and large-scale events: uprisings turning violent, such as Ferguson in 2014 and Baltimore in 2015, and failed armed store robberies.

Ban Ki-moon, 2007–2016

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Gowan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cautious Approach ◽  
Peacekeeping Operations ◽  
Council Decision ◽  
The Face

During Ban Ki-moon’s tenure, the Security Council was shaken by P5 divisions over Kosovo, Georgia, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine. Yet it also continued to mandate and sustain large-scale peacekeeping operations in Africa, placing major burdens on the UN Secretariat. The chapter will argue that Ban initially took a cautious approach to controversies with the Council, and earned a reputation for excessive passivity in the face of crisis and deference to the United States. The second half of the chapter suggests that Ban shifted to a more activist pressure as his tenure went on, pressing the Council to act in cases including Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, and Syria. The chapter will argue that Ban had only a marginal impact on Council decision-making, even though he made a creditable effort to speak truth to power over cases such as the Central African Republic (CAR), challenging Council members to live up to their responsibilities.

scholarly journals Holocene vegetation, fire and land use dynamics at Lake Svityaz, an agriculturally marginal site in northwestern Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Schwörer ◽  
Erika Gobet ◽  
Jacqueline F. N. van Leeuwen ◽  
Sarah Bögli ◽  
Rachel Imboden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bronze Age ◽  
Human Impact ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mixed Forest ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Fire Dynamics

AbstractObserving natural vegetation dynamics over the entire Holocene is difficult in Central Europe, due to pervasive and increasing human disturbance since the Neolithic. One strategy to minimize this limitation is to select a study site in an area that is marginal for agricultural activity. Here, we present a new sediment record from Lake Svityaz in northwestern Ukraine. We have reconstructed regional and local vegetation and fire dynamics since the Late Glacial using pollen, spores, macrofossils and charcoal. Boreal forest composed of Pinus sylvestris and Betula with continental Larix decidua and Pinus cembra established in the region around 13,450 cal bp, replacing an open, steppic landscape. The first temperate tree to expand was Ulmus at 11,800 cal bp, followed by Quercus, Fraxinus excelsior, Tilia and Corylus ca. 1,000 years later. Fire activity was highest during the Early Holocene, when summer solar insolation reached its maximum. Carpinus betulus and Fagus sylvatica established at ca. 6,000 cal bp, coinciding with the first indicators of agricultural activity in the region and a transient climatic shift to cooler and moister conditions. Human impact on the vegetation remained initially very low, only increasing during the Bronze Age, at ca. 3,400 cal bp. Large-scale forest openings and the establishment of the present-day cultural landscape occurred only during the past 500 years. The persistence of highly diverse mixed forest under absent or low anthropogenic disturbance until the Early Middle Ages corroborates the role of human impact in the impoverishment of temperate forests elsewhere in Central Europe. The preservation or reestablishment of such diverse forests may mitigate future climate change impacts, specifically by lowering fire risk under warmer and drier conditions.

scholarly journals 1068. Large-Scale Migration and the Changing Viral Hepatitis Prevalences in North America: A modeling approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S563-S563
Author(s):  
Kenneth A Valles ◽  
Lewis R Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Viral Hepatitis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Country Of Origin ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
High Volume ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Outcome Data ◽  
Treatment Programs

Abstract Background Infection by hepatitis B and C viruses causes inflammation of the liver and can lead to cirrhosis, liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The WHO’s ambition to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030 requires strategies specific to the dynamic disease profiles each nation faces. Large-scale human movement from high-prevalence nations to the United States and Canada have altered the disease landscape, likely warranting adjustments to present elimination approaches. However, the nature and magnitude of the new disease burden remains unknown. This study aims to generate a modeled estimate of recent HBV and HCV prevalence changes to the United States and Canada due to migration. Methods Total migrant populations from 2010-2019 were obtained from United Nations Migrant Stock database. Country-of-origin HBV and HCV prevalences were obtained for the select 40 country-of-origin nations from the Polaris Observatory and systematic reviews. A standard pivot table was used to evaluate the disease contribution from and to each nation. Disease progression estimates were generated using the American Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines and outcome data. Results Between 2010 and 2019, 7,676,937 documented migrants arrived in US and Canada from the selected high-volume nations. Primary migrant source regions were East Asia and Latin America. Combined, an estimated 878,995 migrants were HBV positive, and 226,428 HCV positive. The majority of both migrants (6,477,506) and new viral hepatitis cases (HBV=840,315 and HCV=215,359) were found in the United States. The largest source of HBV cases stemmed from the Philippines, and HCV cases from El Salvador. Conclusion Massive human movement has significantly changed HBV and HCV disease burdens in both the US and Canada over the past decade and the long-term outcomes of cirrhosis and HCC are also expected to increase. These increases are likely to disproportionally impact individuals of the migrant and refugee communities and screening and treatment programs must be strategically adjusted in order to reduce morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenses. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Climatology and Meteorological Evolution of Major Wildfire Events over the Northeast United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph B. Pollina ◽  
Brian A. Colle ◽  
Joseph J. Charney
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Coastal Plain ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Trajectory Analysis ◽  
Synoptic Pattern ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Northeast United States ◽  
The North ◽  
North American Regional Reanalysis ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

Abstract This study presents a spatial and temporal climatology of major wildfire events, defined as >100 acres burned (>40.47 ha, where 1 ha = 2.47 acre), in the northeast United States from 1999 to 2009 and the meteorological conditions associated with these events. The northeast United States is divided into two regions: region 1 is centered over the higher terrain of the northeast United States and region 2 is primarily over the coastal plain. About 59% of all wildfire events in these two regions occur in April and May, with ~76% in region 1 and ~53% in region 2. There is large interannual variability in wildfire frequency, with some years having 4–5 times more fire events than other years. The synoptic flow patterns associated with northeast United States wildfires are classified using the North American Regional Reanalysis. The most common synoptic pattern for region 1 is a surface high pressure system centered over the northern Appalachians, which occurred in approximately 46% of all events. For region 2, the prehigh anticyclone type extending from southeast Canada and the Great Lakes to the northeast United States is the most common pattern, occurring in about 46% of all events. A trajectory analysis highlights the influence of large-scale subsidence and decreasing relative humidity during the events, with the prehigh pattern showing the strongest subsidence and downslope drying in the lee of the Appalachians.

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