scholarly journals A Pilot Climate Sensitivity Study Using the CEN Coupled Adjoint Model (CESAM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 2031-2056 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Stammer ◽  
A. Köhl ◽  
A. Vlasenko ◽  
I. Matei ◽  
F. Lunkeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Sensitivity Study ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Northern European

A pilot coupled climate sensitivity study is presented based on the newly developed adjoint coupled climate model, Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und Nachhaltigkeit (CEN) Earth System Assimilation Model (CESAM). To this end the components of the coupled forward model are summarized, and the generation of the adjoint code out of the model forward code through the application of the Transformation of Algorithms in FORTRAN (TAF) adjoint compiler is discussed. It is shown that simulations of the intermediate-complexity CESAM are comparable in quality to CMIP-type coupled climate models, justifying the usage of the model to compute adjoint sensitivities of the northern Europe near-surface temperature to anomalies in surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea ice over the North Atlantic and the Arctic on time scales of up to one month. Results confirm that on a time scale of up to a few days surface temperatures over northern Europe are influenced by Atlantic temperature anomalies just upstream of the target location. With increasingly longer time lapse, however, it is the influence of SSTs over the central and western North Atlantic on the overlying atmosphere and the associated changes in storm-track pattern that dominate the evolution of the surface European temperature. Influences of surface salinity and sea ice on the northern European temperature appear to have similar sensitivity mechanisms, invoked indirectly through their influence on near-surface temperature anomalies. The adjoint study thus confirms that the SST’s impact on the atmospheric dynamics, notably storm tracks, is the primary cause for the influence of northern European temperature changes.

Ocean model formulation influences climate sensitivity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tido Semmler ◽  
Johann Jungclaus ◽  
Christopher Danek ◽  
Helge F Goessling ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Marine Research ◽  
Transient Climate Response

<p>The climate sensitivity is known to be mainly determined by the atmosphere model but here we discover that the ocean model can change a given transient climate response (TCR) by as much as 20% while the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) change is limited to 10%. In our study, two different coupled CMIP6 models (MPI-ESM and AWI-CM) in two different resolutions each are compared. The coupled models share the same atmosphere-land component ECHAM6.3, which has been developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M). However, as part of MPI-ESM and AWI-CM, ECHAM6.3 is coupled to two different ocean models, namely the MPIOM sea ice-ocean model developed at MPI-M and the FESOM sea ice-ocean model developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). A reason for the different TCR is different ocean heat uptake through greenhouse gas forcing in AWI simulations compared to MPI-M simulations. Specifically, AWI-CM simulations show stronger surface heating than MPI-ESM simulations while the MPI-M model accumulates more heat in the deeper ocean. The vertically integrated ocean heat content is increasing stronger in MPI-M model configurations compared to AWI model configurations in the high latitudes. Strong vertical mixing in MPI-M model configurations compared to AWI model configurations seems to be key for these differences. The strongest difference in vertical ocean mixing occurs inside the Weddell Gyre, but there are also important differences in another key region, the northern North Atlantic. Over the North Atlantic, these differences materialize in a lack of a warming hole in AWI model configurations and the presence of a warming hole in MPI-M model configurations. All these differences occur largely independent of the considered model resolutions.</p>

scholarly journals Correlation and trend studies of the sea-ice cover and surface temperatures in the Arctic

2002 ◽  
Vol 34 ◽  
pp. 420-428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josefino C. Comiso
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Ice Concentration ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Surface Ice ◽  
Perennial Ice

AbstractCo-registered and continuous satellite data of sea-ice concentrations and surface ice temperatures from 1981 to 2000 are analyzed to evaluate relationships between these two critical climate parameters and what they reveal in tandem about the changing Arctic environment. During the 19 year period, the Arctic ice extent and actual ice area are shown to be declining at a rate of –2.0±0.3% dec –1 and 3.1 ±0.4% dec–1, respectively, while the surface ice temperature has been increasing at 0.4 ±0.2 K dec–1, where dec is decade. The extent and area of the perennial ice cover, estimated from summer minimum values, have been declining at a much faster rate of –6.7±2.4% dec–1 and –8.3±2.4% dec–1, respectively, while the surface ice temperature has been increasing at 0.9 ±0.6K dec–1. This unusual rate of decline is accompanied by a very variable summer ice cover in the 1990s compared to the 1980s, suggesting increases in the fraction of the relatively thin second-year, and hence a thinning in the perennial, ice cover during the last two decades. Yearly anomaly maps show that the ice-concentration anomalies are predominantly positive in the 1980s and negative in the 1990s, while surface temperature anomalies were mainly negative in the 1980s and positive in the 1990s. The yearly ice-concentration and surface temperature anomalies are highly correlated, indicating a strong link especially in the seasonal region and around the periphery of the perennial ice cover. The surface temperature anomalies also reveal the spatial scope of each warming (or cooling) phenomenon that usually extends beyond the boundaries of the sea-ice cover.

Near-surface wind speeds in ERA5: Climatology, decadal variability and long-term trends

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terhi K. Laurila ◽  
Victoria A. Sinclair ◽  
Hilppa Gregow
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>The knowledge of long-term climate and variability of near-surface wind speeds is essential and widely used among meteorologists, climate scientists and in industries such as wind energy and forestry. The new high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) will likely be used as a reference in future climate projections and in many wind-related applications. Hence, it is important to know what is the mean climate and variability of wind speeds in ERA5.</p><p>We present the monthly 10-m wind speed climate and decadal variability in the North Atlantic and Europe during the 40-year period (1979-2018) based on ERA5. In addition, we examine temporal time series and possible trends in three locations: the central North Atlantic, Finland and Iberian Peninsula. Moreover, we investigate what are the physical reasons for the decadal changes in 10-m wind speeds.</p><p>The 40-year mean and the 98th percentile wind speeds show a distinct contrast between land and sea with the strongest winds over the ocean and a seasonal variation with the strongest winds during winter time. The winds have the highest values and variabilities associated with storm tracks and local wind phenomena such as the mistral. To investigate the extremeness of the winds, we defined an extreme find factor (EWF) which is the ratio between the 98th percentile and mean wind speeds. The EWF is higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe during all months. Mostly no statistically significant linear trends of 10-m wind speeds were found in the 40-year period in the three locations and the annual and decadal variability was large.</p><p>The windiest decade in northern Europe was the 1990s and in southern Europe the 1980s and 2010s. The decadal changes in 10-m wind speeds were largely explained by the position of the jet stream and storm tracks and the strength of the north-south pressure gradient over the North Atlantic. In addition, we investigated the correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in the three locations. The NAO has a positive correlation in the central North Atlantic and Finland and a negative correlation in Iberian Peninsula. The AMO correlates moderately with the winds in the central North Atlantic but no correlation was found in Finland or the Iberian Peninsula. Overall, our study highlights that rather than just using long-term linear trends in wind speeds it is more informative to consider inter-annual or decadal variability.</p>

Evaluation of regional NWP results for sea ice covered Bothnia Bay (Baltic Sea) in winter 2020.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Wenta ◽  
Agnieszka Herman
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Boundary Layer ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Accurate Representation ◽  
Complex Processes

<p>The ongoing development of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and their increasing horizontal resolution have significantly improved forecasting capabilities. However, in the polar regions models struggle with the representation of near-surface atmospheric properties and the vertical structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over sea ice. Particularly difficult to resolve are near-surface temperature, wind speed, and humidity, along with diurnal changes of those properties. Many of the complex processes happening at the interface of sea ice and atmosphere, i.e. vertical fluxes, turbulence, atmosphere - surface coupling are poorly parameterized or not represented in the models at all. Limited data coverage and our poor understanding of the complex processes taking place in the polar ABL limit the development of suitable parametrizations. We try to contribute to the ongoing effort to improve the forecast skill in polar regions through the analysis of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and automatic weather station (AWS) atmospheric measurements from the coastal area of Bothnia Bay (Wenta et. al., 2021), and the application of those datasets for the analysis of regional NWP models' forecasts. </p><p>Data collected during HAOS (Hailuoto Atmospheric Observations over Sea ice) campaign (Wenta et. al., 2021) is used for the evaluation of regional NWP models results from AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale) - Arctic, HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The presented analysis focuses on 27 Feb. 2020 - 2 Mar. 2020, the time of the HAOS campaign, shortly after the formation of new, thin sea ice off the westernmost point of Hailuoto island.  Throughout the studied period weather conditions changed from very cold (-14℃), dry and cloud-free to warmer (~ -5℃), more humid and opaquely cloudy. We evaluate models’ ability to correctly resolve near-surface temperature, humidity, and wind speed, along with vertical changes of temperature and humidity over the sea ice. It is found that generally, models struggle with an accurate representation of surface-based temperature inversions, vertical variations of humidity, and temporal wind speed changes. Furthermore, a WRF Single Columng Model (SCM) is launched to study whether specific WRF planetary boundary layer parameterizations (MYJ, YSU, MYNN, QNSE), vertical resolution, and more accurate representation of surface conditions increase the WRF model’s ability to resolve the ABL above sea ice in the Bay of Bothnia. Experiments with WRF SCM are also used to determine the possible reasons behind model’s biases. Preliminary results show that accurate representation of sea ice conditions, including thickness, surface temperature, albedo, and snow coverage is crucial for increasing the quality of NWP models forecasts. We emphasize the importance of further development of parametrizations focusing on the processes at the sea ice-atmosphere interface.</p><p> </p><p>Reference:</p><p>Wenta, M., Brus, D., Doulgeris, K., Vakkari, V., and Herman, A.: Winter atmospheric boundary layer observations over sea ice in the coastal zone of the Bay of Bothnia (Baltic Sea), Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 33–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-33-2021, 2021. </p><p><br><br><br><br><br><br></p>

scholarly journals A Comparison of North American Surface Temperature and Temperature Extreme Anomalies in Association with Various Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Yu ◽  
Hai Lin ◽  
Nicholas Soulard
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North American ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Temperature Anomaly ◽  
Temperature Extreme ◽  
Associated Anomalies ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
Temperature Anomalies

The atmospheric teleconnection pattern reflects large-scale variations in the atmospheric wave and jet stream, and has pronounced impacts on climate mean and extremes over various regions. This study compares those patterns that have significant circulation anomalies over the North Pacific–North American–North Atlantic sector, which directly influence surface temperature and temperature extremes over North America. We analyze the pattern associated anomalies of surface temperature and warm and cold extremes over North America, during the northern winter and summer seasons. In particular, we assess the robustness of the regional temperature and temperature extreme anomaly patterns by evaluating the field significance of these anomalies over North America, and quantify the percentages of North American temperature and temperature extreme variances explained by these patterns. The surface temperature anomalies in association with the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), Tropical–Northern Hemisphere pattern (TNH), North Pacific pattern (NP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Western Pacific pattern (WP), circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) patterns are similar to those reported in previous studies based on various datasets, indicating the robustness of the results. During winter, the temperature anomaly patterns considered are field significant at the 5% level over North America, except the WP-related one. These pattern associated anomalies explained about 5–15% of the total interannual temperature variance over North America, with relatively high percentages for the ABNA and PNA patterns, and low for the WP pattern. The pattern associated warm and cold extreme anomalies resemble the corresponding surface mean temperature anomaly patterns, with differences mainly in magnitude of the anomalies. Most of the anomalous extreme patterns are field significant at the 5% level, except the WP-related patterns. These extreme anomalies explain about 5–20% of the total interannual variance over North America. During summer, the pattern-related circulation and surface temperature anomalies are weaker than those in winter. Nevertheless, all of the pattern associated temperature anomalies are of field significance at the 5% level over North America, except the PNA-related one, and explain about 5–10% of the interannual variance. In addition, the temperature extreme anomalies, in association with the circulation patterns, are comparable in summer and winter. Over North America, the NP-, WP-, ABNA-, and CGT-associated anomalies of warm extremes are field significant at the 5% level and explain about 5–15% of the interannual variance. Most of the pattern associated cold extreme anomalies are field significant at the 5% level, except the PNA and NAO related anomalies, and also explain about 5–15% of the interannual variance over North America.

scholarly journals Surface Layer Salinity of Young Sea Ice

1985 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 298-299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuo Ono ◽  
Takashi Kasai
Keyword(s):  
Surface Layer ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
High Salinity ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Salinity ◽  
Seawater Salinity ◽  
Fast Ice

The high-salinity surface layer of young sea ice was subjected to field and laboratory experiments. Artificial pools, in which young ice was formed, were opened within a fast-ice sheet in the Saroma lagoon, Hokkaido, in February of 1983 and 1984. The salinity of 1 mm thick surface layer of the young ice was observed as high as 42.4‰, which exceeds the seawater salinity of 31‰. The surface salinity increased with rising surface temperature. When a load was placed on the fast ice near the pool, seeped brine of salinity 72.5‰ was observed on the surface of the young ice; and when the load was removed, the brine disappeared. Meanwhile, brine permeabilities, both upward and downward, were measured in the laboratory, Both permeabilities decreased logarithmically with lowering surface temperature. A remarkable anisotropy was observed: the upward permeability was greater than downward, and the ratio of upward to downward premeability increased with lowering surface temperature from 5 at -3 °C to 33 at -5°C. Upward and downward permeabilities in ms-1 were respectively 1x10-4 and 2x10-5 at -3°C, 2x10-5 and 6x10-7 at -5°C, and at -10°C upward permeability was 3x10-7.

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