scholarly journals Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 3635-3661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Spinoni ◽  
Paulo Barbosa ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
John Cassano ◽  
Tereza Cavazos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spots ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
First Century ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

AbstractTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

scholarly journals Past and future drought in Northwestern Algeria: the Beni Bahdel Dam catchment

2020 ◽  
Vol 383 ◽  
pp. 315-318
Author(s):  
Senna Bouabdelli ◽  
Ayoub Zeroual ◽  
Mohamed Meddi ◽  
Fateh Djelloul ◽  
Ramdane Alkama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In last decades, the impact of climate change started to appear in the semi-arid regions of the Mediterranean Basin. The severity and frequency of drought events in Northwestern Algeria have affected water resources availability and agriculture. This study aims to evaluate the temporal evolution of drought events characteristics, such as drought duration, frequency and severity, of the Beni Bahdel Dam catchment, Northwestern Algeria. Drought characteristics have been derived from the Standardized precipitation index (SPI) computed for the period from 1941 to 2100 using precipitation data from observations and simulations of the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre Atmosphere model, version 4). The RCA4 model was forced by the global circulation model MPI-ESM-LR under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The ability of the model simulations was firstly assessed to reproduce the drought characteristics from observed data (1951–2005). Then, future changes in drought characteristics over the twenty-first century were investigated under the two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results show an amplification of drought frequencies and durations in the future under the RCP8.5 scenario.

scholarly journals Assessment of Meteorological Drought in Korea under Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaewon Kwak ◽  
Soojun Kim ◽  
Jaewon Jung ◽  
Vijay P. Singh ◽  
Dong Ryul Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Copula Method ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Near Future

Drought has become one of the most important elements for water resources planning and management in Korea. The objective of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of drought and change in the drought characteristics over time due to climate change. For the spatial characterization of drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is calculated from the 45 observatories in Korea and the spatial distribution is also estimated based on the joint probability analysis using the copula method. To analyze the effect of climate change, spatial distribution of drought in the future is analyzed using the SPI time series calculated from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and HADGEM3-RA regional climate model. The results show that the Youngsan River and the northwest of Nakdong River basins in Korea have nearly doubled drought amount compared to the present and are most vulnerable to drought in near future (2016 to 2039 years).

scholarly journals Manipulating Large-Scale Qualitative Meteorological Information for Drought Outlook

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (10) ◽  
pp. 3250-3258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuk-Hyun Ahn ◽  
Young-Oh Kim ◽  
Sang Jin Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Moisture Index ◽  
Probability Forecast ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Interval Forecast

Abstract Despite many strides made in the development of global circulation models as well as the expansive understanding of meteorological phenomena, many countries still lack sufficient meteorological information that can be conveniently utilized for a hydrologic outlook. This paper suggests a technique of processing the meteorological information, which is not only difficult to differentiate by reducing to a specific basin because of extensive data, but is also impossible to be led to a quantitative drought outlook because of its presentation in qualitative forms. To assess the drought conditions, two indices were selected—the standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is a meteorological index, and the soil moisture index (SMI), an agricultural index. The long-range forecasts, provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) to target the Korean peninsula, were used to predict these indices. As a means to convert the qualitative interval forecast into a quantitative probability forecast, previous data on temperature and precipitation were used to create a compatible probability distribution that was then divided into three intervals. Based on the interval forecast provided by the KMA, the forecast probability of corresponding intervals were differentiated and optimized for each study basin by modifying the probability adjustment coefficient. The quantified probability forecast established in this manner was applied to three basins in Korea, and was verified by applying the ranked probability skill score (RPSS). The results proved that accuracy was ensured in both SPI and SMI.

scholarly journals Developing Objective Operational Definitions for Monitoring Drought

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (6) ◽  
pp. 1217-1229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Quiring
Keyword(s):  
Water Conservation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Specific Method ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Spatially Variant ◽  
Objective Methodology

Abstract Drought is a complex phenomenon that is difficult to accurately describe because its definition is both spatially variant and context dependent. Decision makers in local, state, and federal agencies commonly use operational drought definitions that are based on specific drought index thresholds to trigger water conservation measures and determine levels of drought assistance. Unfortunately, many state drought plans utilize operational drought definitions that are derived subjectively and therefore may not be appropriate for triggering drought responses. This paper presents an objective methodology for establishing operational drought definitions. The advantages of this methodology are demonstrated by calculating meteorological drought thresholds for the Palmer drought severity index, the standardized precipitation index, and percent of normal precipitation using both station and climate division data from Texas. Results indicate that using subjectively derived operational drought definitions may lead to over- or underestimating true drought severity. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use an objective location-specific method for defining operational drought thresholds.

scholarly journals Análisis comparativo de índices de sequía en Andalucía para el periodo 1901-2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 67 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Peña-Gallardo ◽  
S. R. Gámiz-Fortís ◽  
Y. Castro-Diez ◽  
M. J. Esteban-Parra
Keyword(s):  
Time Windows ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Global Evaluation ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

The aim of this paper is the analysis of the detection and evolution of droughts occurred in Andalusia for the period 1901-2012, by applying three different drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Drought-Precipitation Index (IESP), computed for three time windows from the initial period 1901-2012. This analysis has been carried out after a preliminary study of precipitation trends with the intention of understanding the precipitation behaviour, because this climatic variable is one of the most important in the study of extreme events. The specific objectives of this study are: (1) to investigate and characterize the meteorological drought events, mainly the most important episodes in Andalusia; (2) to provide a global evaluation of the capacities of the three different considered indices in order to characterize the drought in a heterogeneous climatically territory; and (3) to describe the temporal behaviour of precipitation and drought indices series in order to establish the general characteristics of their evolution in Andalusia. The results have shown that not all the indices respond similarly identifying the intensity and duration of dry periods in this kind of region where geographical and climatic variability is one of the main elements to be considered.

Impact of meteorological drought on agriculture in the Tensift watershed of Morocco

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1323-1338 ◽  
Author(s):  
Modeste Meliho ◽  
Abdellatif Khattabi ◽  
Guy Jobbins ◽  
Fathallah Sghir
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Annual Crops ◽  
Irrigated Area ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Located in the mid-west of Morocco, the Tensift watershed shelters the Takerkoust dam, which provides a part of the water used for irrigation of the N'fis agricultural area, which is an important irrigated area of the Tensift watershed. This study deals with the impact of droughts on water inflows to the Takerkoust dam and how the water shortage caused by droughts affects agricultural production in the N'Fis area. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to illustrate the temporal evolution of drought periods. The trend observed on data showed that the Tensift watershed experienced a succession of droughts and humid periods of varying intensities. Periods of drought have negatively affected water inflows to the Takerkoust dam, and therefore the amount of water allocated to agricultural irrigation. Years that experienced droughts showed a restriction of more than 50% of water volume planned for irrigation. During periods of water scarcity, farmers reduce or completely avoid irrigation of annual crops to save water for irrigation of perennial crops. The water shortage for irrigation has led in some cases to a drop of up to 100% of the surface allocated to the production of annual crops.

scholarly journals Finescale Evaluation of Drought in a Tropical Setting: Case Study in Sri Lanka

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradfield Lyon ◽  
Lareef Zubair ◽  
Vidhura Ralapanawe ◽  
Zeenas Yahiya
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Drought Relief ◽  
Drought Indicators ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract In regions of climatic heterogeneity, finescale assessment of drought risk is needed for policy making and drought management, mitigation, and adaptation. The relationship between drought relief payments (a proxy for drought risk) and meteorological drought indicators is examined through a retrospective analysis for Sri Lanka (1960–2000) based on records of district-level drought relief payments and a dense network of 284 rainfall stations. The standardized precipitation index and a percent-of-annual-average index for rainfall accumulated over 3, 6, 9, and 12 months were used, gridded to a spatial resolution of 10 km. An encouraging correspondence was identified between the spatial distribution of meteorological drought occurrence and historical drought relief payments at the district scale. Time series of drought indices averaged roughly over the four main climatic zones of Sri Lanka showed statistically significant (p < 0.01) relationships with the occurrence of drought relief. The 9-month cumulative drought index provided the strongest relationships overall, although 6- and 12-month indicators provided generally similar results. Some cases of appreciable drought without corresponding relief payments could be attributed to fiscal pressures, as during the 1970s. Statistically significant relationships between drought indicators and relief payments point to the potential utility of meteorological drought assessments for disaster risk management. In addition, the study provides an empirical approach to testing which meteorological drought indicators bear a statistically significant relationship to drought relief across a wide range of tropical climates.

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