scholarly journals Evaluating Diurnal Rainfall Signal Performance from CMIP5 to CMIP6

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-52
Author(s):  
Yu-Chi Lee ◽  
Yi-Chi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cumulus Parameterization ◽  
Cycle Performance ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Current Collection ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Diurnal Rainfall ◽  
Phase Amplitude

AbstractThis study provides a comprehensive overview of diurnal rainfall signal performance within the current collection of models in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6). The results serve as a reference for understanding model physics performance to represent precipitating processes and atmosphere–land–ocean interactions in response to the diurnal solar radiation cycle. Performance metrics are based on the phase, amplitude, and two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the climatological diurnal rainfall cycle derived from a Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission observational dataset. We found that the ensemble model biases of diurnal phase and amplitude over lands improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6; however, those over oceans are still highly uncertain among CMIP6 models. Evaluation with observed EOF modes shows that the CMIP6 models are bifurcated based on the second EOF (EOF2), which represents diurnal rainfall contrast of coastal regimes where large biases of phase and amplitude reside. While the model ensemble suggests models are benefited from higher resolution in simulating phase and amplitude biases, the most distinct difference between the bifurcations is that one group successfully captures prevailing nighttime rainfall over tropical islands and coasts, especially over the Maritime Continent. Convective rainfall diagnosed by cumulus parameterization is found to be responsible for such biases. Our results suggest that CMIP6 models have generally been improved in their representation of diurnal rainfall cycles; however, for coastal diurnal regimes, more study is needed to improve the model parameterization of precipitation processes interacting with islands and coastal regions as current model resolution is still too coarse to resolve them.

Estimation of Design Parameters and Performance for a State-of-the-Art Turbofan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Sjögren ◽  
Carlos Xisto ◽  
Tomas Grönstedt
Keyword(s):  
Performance Metrics ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Low Pressure ◽  
Performance Model ◽  
Cycle Performance ◽  
Civil Aviation ◽  
Design Parameters ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Low Pressure System

Abstract The aim of this study is to explore the possibility of matching a cycle performance model to public data on a state-of-the-art commercial aircraft engine (GEnx-1B). The study is focused on obtaining valuable information on figure of merits for the technology level of the low-pressure system and associated uncertainties. It is therefore directed more specifically towards the fan and low-pressure turbine efficiencies, the Mach number at the fan-face, the distribution of power between the core and the bypass stream as well as the fan pressure ratio. Available cycle performance data have been extracted from the engine emission databank provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), type certificate datasheets from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), as well as publicly available data from engine manufacturer. Uncertainties in the available source data are estimated and randomly sampled to generate inputs for a model matching procedure. The results show that fuel performance can be estimated with some degree of confidence. However, the study also indicates that a high degree of uncertainty is expected in the prediction of key low-pressure system performance metrics, when relying solely on publicly available data. This outcome highlights the importance of statistic-based methods as a support tool for the inverse design procedures. It also provides a better understanding on the limitations of conventional thermodynamic matching procedures, and the need to complement with methods that take into account conceptual design, cost and fuel burn.

Does the Signal-to-Noise Paradox Exist in Subseasonal Predictions?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Baoqiang Xiang ◽  
Ben Kirtman ◽  
Emily Becker
Keyword(s):  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Signal To Noise ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Noise Ratio ◽  
Decadal Climate ◽  
New Generation

<p>One of the emerging topics in climate prediction is the issue of the so-called “signal-to-noise paradox”, characterized by too small signal-to-noise ratio in current model predictions that cannot reproduce the realistic signal. Recent studies have suggested that seasonal-to-decadal climate can be more predictable than ever expected due to the paradox. But no studies, to the best of our knowledge, have been focused on whether the signal-to-noise paradox exists in subseasonal predictions. The present study seeks to address the existence of the paradox in subseasonal predictions based on (i) coupled model simulations participating in phase 5 and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively), and (ii) subseasonal hindcast outputs from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction (S2S) projects. Of particular interest is the possible existence of the paradox in the new generation of GFDL SPEAR model, through the diagnosis of which may help identify potential issues in the new forecast system to guide future model development and initialization. Here we investigate the paradox issue using two methods: the ratio of predictable component defined as the ratio of predictable component in the real world to the signal-to-noise ratio in models and the persistence/dispersion characteristics estimated from a Markov model framework. The preliminary results suggest a potentially widespread occurrence of the signal-to-noise paradox in subseasonal predictions, further implying some room for improvement in future ensemble-based subseasonal predictions.</p>

scholarly journals Parameterization and Validation of an Electrochemical Thermal Model of a Lithium-Ion Battery

Batteries ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liebig ◽  
Gupta ◽  
Kirstein ◽  
Schuldt ◽  
Agert
Keyword(s):  
Lithium Ion Battery ◽  
Heat Dissipation ◽  
Electrochemical Impedance ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Open Circuit ◽  
Battery Cell ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Parameterized Model ◽  
The Individual

The key challenge in developing a physico-chemical model is the model parameterization. The paper presents a strategic model parameterization procedure, parameter values, and a developed model that allows simulating electrochemical and thermal behavior of a commercial lithium-ion battery with high accuracy. Steps taken are the analysis of geometry details by opening a battery cell under argon atmosphere, building upon reference data of similar material compositions, incorporating cell balancing by a quasi-open-circuit-voltage experiment, and adapting the battery models reaction kinetics behavior by comparing experiment and simulation of an electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and hybrid pulse power characterization. The electrochemical-thermal coupled model is established based on COMSOL Multiphysics® platform (Stockholm, Sweden) and validated via experimental methods. The parameterized model was adopted to analyze the heat dissipation sources based on the internal states of the battery at different operation modes. Simulation in the field of thermal management for lithium-ion batteries highly depends on state of charge-related thermal issues of the incorporated cell composition. The electrode balancing is an essential step to be performed in order to address the internal battery states realistically. The individual contribution of the cell components heat dissipation has significant influence on the temperature distribution pattern based on the kinetic and thermodynamic properties.

Modelling Wave-Current-Turbulence Interactions for Tidal Energy Applications

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vengatesan Venugopal ◽  
Arne Vögler
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Tidal Current ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Tidal Energy ◽  
The North ◽  
Wave Parameters ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Coupled Wave

Abstract This paper presents the nature of turbulence parameters produced from 3-dimensional numerical simulations using an ocean scale wave-tidal current model applied to tidal energy sites in the Orkney waters in the United Kingdom. The MIKE 21/3 coupled wave-current model is chosen for this study. The numerical modelling study is conducted in two stages. First, a North Atlantic Ocean large-scale wave model is employed to simulate wave parameters. Spatial and temporal wind speeds extracted from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) is utilised to drive the North Atlantic wave model. Secondly, the wave parameters produced from the North Atlantic model are used as boundary conditions to run a coupled wave-tidal current model. A turbulence model representing the turbulence and eddy viscosity within the coupled model is chosen and the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) due to wave-current interactions are computed. The coupled model is calibrated with Acoustic Doppler and Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements deployed close to a tidal energy site in the Inner Sound of the Pentland Firth. The model output parameters such as the current speed, TKE, horizontal and vertical eddy viscosities, significant wave height, peak wave period and wave directions are presented, and, their characteristics are discussed in detail.

scholarly journals Evaluation of CMIP5 Global Climate Models for Simulating Climatological Temperature and Precipitation for Southeast Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suchada Kamworapan ◽  
Chinnawat Surussavadee
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Total Error ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ensemble Average ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Intercomparison Project

This study evaluates the performances of all forty different global climate models (GCMs) that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for simulating climatological temperature and precipitation for Southeast Asia. Historical simulations of climatological temperature and precipitation of the 40 GCMs for the 40-year period of 1960–1999 for both land and sea and those for the century of 1901–1999 for land are evaluated using observation and reanalysis datasets. Nineteen different performance metrics are employed. The results show that the performances of different GCMs vary greatly. CNRM-CM5-2 performs best among the 40 GCMs, where its total error is 3.25 times less than that of GCM performing worst. The performance of CNRM-CM5-2 is compared with those of the ensemble average of all 40 GCMs (40-GCM-Ensemble) and the ensemble average of the 6 best GCMs (6-GCM-Ensemble) for four categories, i.e., temperature only, precipitation only, land only, and sea only. While 40-GCM-Ensemble performs best for temperature, 6-GCM-Ensemble performs best for precipitation. 6-GCM-Ensemble performs best for temperature and precipitation simulations over sea, whereas CNRM-CM5-2 performs best over land. Overall results show that 6-GCM-Ensemble performs best and is followed by CNRM-CM5-2 and 40-GCM-Ensemble, respectively. The total errors of 6-GCM-Ensemble, CNRM-CM5-2, and 40-GCM-Ensemble are 11.84, 13.69, and 14.09, respectively. 6-GCM-Ensemble and CNRM-CM5-2 agree well with observations and can provide useful climate simulations for Southeast Asia. This suggests the use of 6-GCM-Ensemble and CNRM-CM5-2 for climate studies and projections for Southeast Asia.

CMIP model evaluation with the ESMValTool v2.0

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Lauer ◽  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
the ESMValTool development team
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Emergent Constraints ◽  
Data Volume ◽  
And Performance

<p>The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) has been developed with the aim of taking model evaluation to the next level by facilitating analysis of many different ESM components, providing well-documented source code and scientific background of implemented diagnostics and metrics and allowing for traceability and reproducibility of results (provenance). This has been made possible by a lively and growing development community continuously improving the tool supported by multiple national and European projects. The latest version (2.0) of the ESMValTool has been developed as a large community effort to specifically target the increased data volume of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the related challenges posed by analysis and evaluation of output from multiple high-resolution and complex ESMs. For this, the core functionalities have been completely rewritten in order to take advantage of state-of-the-art computational libraries and methods to allow for efficient and user-friendly data processing. Common operations on the input data such as regridding or computation of multi-model statistics are now centralized in a highly optimized preprocessor written in Python. The diagnostic part of the ESMValTool includes a large collection of standard recipes for reproducing peer-reviewed analyses of many variables across atmosphere, ocean, and land domains, with diagnostics and performance metrics focusing on the mean-state, trends, variability and important processes, phenomena, as well as emergent constraints. While most of the diagnostics use observational data sets (in particular satellite and ground-based observations) or reanalysis products for model evaluation some are also based on model-to-model comparisons. This presentation introduces the diagnostics newly implemented into ESMValTool v2.0 including an extended set of large-scale diagnostics for quasi-operational and comprehensive evaluation of ESMs, new diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation and analysis of ESMs, as well as diagnostics for emergent constraints and analysis of future projections from ESMs. The new diagnostics are illustrated with examples using results from the well-established CMIP5 and the newly available CMIP6 data sets.</p>

scholarly journals Marine extreme events in high-resolution coupled model simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gesa Eirund ◽  
Matthias Münnich ◽  
Matthieu Leclair ◽  
Nicolas Gruber
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Current System ◽  
Current Model ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Temporal Scales ◽  
California Current System ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales

<p>Air-sea interactions have been found to substantially affect and drive marine extreme events. Such extreme events comprise, among others, highly anomalous conditions in ocean temperature, pH, and oxygen content - all of which are crucial parameters directly impacting marine ecosystem. Nevertheless, our understanding of the role of such events in the marine environment remains limited. In addition, the extent to which the interplay between atmospheric and oceanic forcings impacts the spatial and temporal scales of extreme events and affects the marine ecosystem and ocean biogeochemistry remains largely unknown.</p><p> </p><p>Given these complex interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean, and marine biogeochemistry, we developed a coupled regional high-resolution Earth System Model (ROMSOC). ROMSOC comprises the latest officially released GPU-accelerated Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) version as the atmospheric model, coupled to the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS in turn includes the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) model that describes the functioning of the lower trophic ecosystem in the ocean and the associated biogeochemical cycle. Our current model setup includes thermodynamical coupling and will be extended further to include mechanical coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. Here, we present first simulations of our coupled model system for the California Current System (CalCS) at the US west coast at kilometer-scale resolution. We will test the hypothesis if the strong mesoscale coupling of the atmosphere and the ocean as represented in our model impacts the spatial and temporal scales of marine heatwaves and can potentially act to shorten their duration.</p>

High Pressure Compressor Aerodynamic Performance at Uncertain Boundary Conditions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Magin ◽  
Florian Danner ◽  
Matthias Voigt ◽  
Ronald Mailach
Keyword(s):  
High Pressure ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Aerodynamic Performance ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Cycle Performance ◽  
Probabilistic Assessment ◽  
Ambient Conditions ◽  
High Pressure Compressor ◽  
Pressure Compressor

Abstract The intended operating point of turbomachinery is subject to numerous kinds of uncertainty. These range from varying ambient conditions, across geometric deviations in a component, to system related loading variability resulting in engine-to-engine variation in component matching. In order to guarantee safe operation at all conditions, it is essential to consider the above uncertainties when designing turbomachinery. In the present work, a probabilistic assessment is performed of the influence of possible operational uncertainties on the aerodynamic performance metrics of an aero-engine multistage high pressure compressor (HPC). To propagate uncertainties, Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) with Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) were performed, with both correlated and uncorrelated inputs. Each sample consisted of a steady state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) evaluation of the compressor. The statistical input for the boundary conditions was acquired from a MCS of the engine cycle performance at cruise, accounting for flight-to-flight variations in ambient conditions and engine-to-engine variations in component properties. With the chosen approach, it is possible to quantify the variability in aerodynamic performance of an HPC that is subject to uncertain operating conditions and thus shows the importance of input correlations. Results highlight that deterministically determined performance metrics can differ considerably from the statistical mean, revealing the benefits of a probabilistic assessment. In contrast to performing MCS on the cycle only, a CFD based assessment can also be used to draw conclusions on the aerodynamic mechanisms responsible for changes in efficiency or surge margin.

Model evaluation expectations of European ESM communities: results from a survey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerome Servonnat ◽  
Eric Guilyardi ◽  
Zofia Stott ◽  
Kim Serradell ◽  
Axel Lauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Evaluation ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Technical Standards ◽  
Community Effort ◽  
And Performance

<p>Developing an Earth system model evaluation tool for a broad user community is a real challenge, as the potential users do not necessarily have the same needs or expectations. While many evaluation tasks across user communities include common steps, significant differences are also apparent, not least the investment by institutions and individuals in bespoke tools. A key question is whether there is sufficient common ground to pursue a community tool with broad appeal and application.</p><p>We present the main results of a survey carried out by Assimila for the H2020 IS-ENES3 project to review the model evaluation needs of European Earth System Modelling communities. Interviewing approximately 30 participants among several European institutions, the survey targeted a broad range of users, including model developers, model users, evaluation data providers, and infrastructure providers. The output of the study provides an analysis of  requirements focusing on key technical, standards, and governance aspects.</p><p>The study used ESMValTool as a  current benchmark in terms of European evaluation tools. It is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth System Models that allows for comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations. The tool is being developed in such a way that additional analyses can be added. As a community effort open to both users and developers, it encourages open exchange of diagnostic source code and evaluation results. It is currently used in Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects as well as for the development and testing of “new” models.</p><p>A key result of the survey is the widespread support for ESMValTool amongst users, developers, and even those who have taken or promote other approaches. The results of the survey identify priorities and opportunities in the further development of the ESMValTool to ensure long-term adoption of the tool by a broad community.</p>

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