scholarly journals GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 643-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Anthony J. Broccoli ◽  
Anthony Rosati ◽  
Ronald J. Stouffer ◽  
V. Balaji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Coupled Climate Models

Abstract The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/).

Climate change in the tropical Atlantic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Lander Crespo ◽  
Shunya Koseki ◽  
Lea Svendsen ◽  
Ingo Richter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Of Guinea ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
Warming Pattern

<p>The tropical Atlantic SST have warmed by about 1 degree over the historical period, with greatest warming in the east, along the African coast and in the Gulf of Guinea. Experiments performed from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) indicate that models fail to reproduce this warming pattern, instead showing a rather uniform warming. Future projections with these models also tend to show rather uniform warming. In constrast. results from anomaly coupled models indicate that model biases impact the ability of climate models to simulate warming patterns in the tropical Atlantic. Here we investigate the role of model biases on climate change in the tropical Atlantic in the CMIP experiments. In addition, we have analyzed impacts of global warming on tropical Atlantic climate variability, and we assess the sensitive of the results are to model biases.</p>

Frontal Scale Air–Sea Interaction in High-Resolution Coupled Climate Models

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (23) ◽  
pp. 6277-6291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank O. Bryan ◽  
Robert Tomas ◽  
John M. Dennis ◽  
Dudley B. Chelton ◽  
Norman G. Loeb ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Surface Wind Stress ◽  
Coupled Climate Models

Abstract The emerging picture of frontal scale air–sea interaction derived from high-resolution satellite observations of surface winds and sea surface temperature (SST) provides a unique opportunity to test the fidelity of high-resolution coupled climate simulations. Initial analysis of the output of a suite of Community Climate System Model (CCSM) experiments indicates that characteristics of frontal scale ocean–atmosphere interaction, such as the positive correlation between SST and surface wind stress, are realistically captured only when the ocean component is eddy resolving. The strength of the coupling between SST and surface stress is weaker than observed, however, as has been found previously for numerical weather prediction models and other coupled climate models. The results are similar when the atmospheric component model grid resolution is doubled from 0.5° to 0.25°, an indication that shortcomings in the representation of subgrid scale atmospheric planetary boundary layer processes, rather than resolved scale processes, are responsible for the weakness of the coupling. In the coupled model solutions the response to mesoscale SST features is strongest in the atmospheric boundary layer, but there is a deeper reaching response of the atmospheric circulation apparent in free tropospheric clouds. This simulated response is shown to be consistent with satellite estimates of the relationship between mesoscale SST and all-sky albedo.

scholarly journals Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Simulate the Current Temperature Only If the Shortwave Radiation Anomaly of the 2000s Has Been Omitted

2021 ◽  
pp. 45-52
Author(s):  
Antero Ollila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Paris Climate Agreement

The research article of Gillett et al. was published in Nature Climate Change (NCC) in March 2021. The objective of the NCC study was to simulate human-induced forcings to warming by applying 13 CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate models. NCC did not accept the author’s remarks as a “Matters arising” article. The purpose of this article is to detail the original three remarks and one additional remark: 1) the discrepancy between the graphs and reported numerical values, 2) the forcings of aerosols and clouds, 3) the positive water feedback, and 4) the calculation basis of the Paris agreement. The most important finding is that General Circulation Models (GCMs) used in simulations omit the significant shortwave anomaly from 2001 to 2019, which causes a temperature error of 0.3°C according to climate change physics of Gillett et al. For the year 2019, this error is 0.8°C showing the magnitude of shortwave anomaly impact. The main reason for this error turns out to be the positive water feedback generally applied in climate models. The scientific basis of the Paris climate agreement is faulty for the same reason.

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

scholarly journals The Linear Response of ENSO to the Madden–Julian Oscillation

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 2441-2459 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Zavala-Garay ◽  
C. Zhang ◽  
A. M. Moore ◽  
R. Kleeman
Keyword(s):  
Large Fraction ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
Kelvin Waves ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Stochastic Forcing

Abstract The possibility that the tropical Pacific coupled system linearly amplifies perturbations produced by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is explored. This requires an estimate of the low-frequency tail of the MJO. Using 23 yr of NCEP–NCAR reanalyses of surface wind and Reynolds SST, we show that the spatial structure that dominates the intraseasonal band (i.e., the MJO) also dominates the low-frequency band once the anomalies directly related to ENSO have been removed. This low-frequency contribution of the intraseasonal variability is not included in most ENSO coupled models used to date. Its effect in a coupled model of intermediate complexity has, therefore, been studied. It is found that this “MJO forcing” (τMJO) can explain a large fraction of the interannual variability in an asymptotically stable version of the model. This interaction is achieved via linear dynamics. That is, it is the cumulative effect of individual events that maintains ENSOs in this model. The largest coupled wind anomalies are initiated after a sequence of several downwelling Kelvin waves of the same sign have been forced by τMJO. The cumulative effect of the forced Kelvin waves is to persist the (small) SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific just enough for the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics to amplify the anomalies into a mature ENSO event. Even though τMJO explains just a small fraction of the energy contained in the stress not associated with ENSO, a large fraction of the modeled ENSO variability is excited by this forcing. The characteristics that make τMJO an optimal stochastic forcing for the model are discussed. The large zonal extent is an important factor that differentiates the MJO from other sources of stochastic forcing.

scholarly journals Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anja Katzenberger ◽  
Jacob Schewe ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
Anders Levermann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP-5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP-6 are of interest. Here, we analyse 32 models of the latest CMIP-6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with high agreement between the models and independent of the SSP; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm/day and 5.3 % per degree of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP-5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP-6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP-5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Dynamics Feedback: Concept, Simulations, and Climate Implications

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 3249-3264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Byrne ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Circulation Changes

AbstractThe regional climate response to radiative forcing is largely controlled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. It has been suggested that global climate sensitivity also depends on the circulation response, an effect called the “atmospheric dynamics feedback.” Using a technique to isolate the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation on top-of-the-atmosphere radiation, the authors calculate the atmospheric dynamics feedback in coupled climate models. Large-scale circulation changes contribute substantially to all-sky and cloud feedbacks in the tropics but are relatively less important at higher latitudes. Globally averaged, the atmospheric dynamics feedback is positive and amplifies the near-surface temperature response to climate change by an average of 8% in simulations with coupled models. A constraint related to the atmospheric mass budget results in the dynamics feedback being small on large scales relative to feedbacks associated with thermodynamic processes. Idealized-forcing simulations suggest that circulation changes at high latitudes are potentially more effective at influencing global temperature than circulation changes at low latitudes, and the implications for past and future climate change are discussed.

scholarly journals Southern Ocean Wind Stress in CMIP5 Models: Role of Wind Fluctuations

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 1209-1226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Lin ◽  
Xiaoming Zhai ◽  
Zhaomin Wang ◽  
David R. Munday
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Surface Wind Stress ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
The Mean

AbstractThe Southern Ocean (SO) surface wind stress is a major atmospheric forcing for driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the global overturning circulation. Here the effects of wind fluctuations at different time scales on SO wind stress in 18 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are investigated. It is found that including wind fluctuations, especially on time scales associated with synoptic storms, in the stress calculation strongly enhances the mean strength, modulates the seasonal cycle, and significantly amplifies the trends of SO wind stress. In 11 out of the 18 CMIP5 models, the SO wind stress has strengthened significantly over the period of 1960–2005. Among them, the strengthening trend of SO wind stress in one CMIP5 model is due to the increase in the intensity of wind fluctuations, while in all the other 10 models the strengthening trend is due to the increasing strength of the mean westerly wind. These discrepancies in SO wind stress trend in CMIP5 models may explain some of the diverging behaviors in the model-simulated SO circulation. Our results suggest that to reduce the uncertainty in SO responses to wind stress changes in the coupled models, both the mean wind and wind fluctuations need to be better simulated.

scholarly journals The Benefits of Global High Resolution for Climate Simulation: Process Understanding and the Enabling of Stakeholder Decisions at the Regional Scale

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (11) ◽  
pp. 2341-2359 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Roberts ◽  
P. L. Vidale ◽  
C. Senior ◽  
H. T. Hewitt ◽  
C. Bates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

AbstractThe time scales of the Paris Climate Agreement indicate urgent action is required on climate policies over the next few decades, in order to avoid the worst risks posed by climate change. On these relatively short time scales the combined effect of climate variability and change are both key drivers of extreme events, with decadal time scales also important for infrastructure planning. Hence, in order to assess climate risk on such time scales, we require climate models to be able to represent key aspects of both internally driven climate variability and the response to changing forcings. In this paper we argue that we now have the modeling capability to address these requirements—specifically with global models having horizontal resolutions considerably enhanced from those typically used in previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises. The improved representation of weather and climate processes in such models underpins our enhanced confidence in predictions and projections, as well as providing improved forcing to regional models, which are better able to represent local-scale extremes (such as convective precipitation). We choose the global water cycle as an illustrative example because it is governed by a chain of processes for which there is growing evidence of the benefits of higher resolution. At the same time it comprises key processes involved in many of the expected future climate extremes (e.g., flooding, drought, tropical and midlatitude storms).

The Role of Mesoscale Eddies in the Rectification of the Southern Ocean Response to Climate Change

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 1539-1557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Farneti ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Anthony J. Rosati ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Fanrong Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Changes

Abstract Simulations from a fine-resolution global coupled model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.4 (CM2.4), are presented, and the results are compared with a coarse version of the same coupled model, CM2.1, under idealized climate change scenarios. A particular focus is given to the dynamical response of the Southern Ocean and the role played by the eddies—parameterized or permitted—in setting the residual circulation and meridional density structure. Compared to the case in which eddies are parameterized and consistent with recent observational and idealized modeling studies, the eddy-permitting integrations of CM2.4 show that eddy activity is greatly energized with increasing mechanical and buoyancy forcings, buffering the ocean to atmospheric changes, and the magnitude of the residual oceanic circulation response is thus greatly reduced. Although compensation is far from being perfect, changes in poleward eddy fluxes partially compensate for the enhanced equatorward Ekman transport, leading to weak modifications in local isopycnal slopes, transport by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and overturning circulation. Since the presence of active ocean eddy dynamics buffers the oceanic response to atmospheric changes, the associated atmospheric response to those reduced ocean changes is also weakened. Further, it is hypothesized that present numerical approaches for the parameterization of eddy-induced transports could be too restrictive and prevent coarse-resolution models from faithfully representing the eddy response to variability and change in the forcing fields.

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